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Ottawa Senators signed Joshua Norris (8 Years / $7,950,000 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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Jul. 14, 2022 at 5:56 p.m.
#26
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Quoting: pinslack
I'm not sure I'd take Norris at this price before any of those 3 guys... Not necessarily a bad contract thought, fair contract


Thomas and Hughes definitely look like a cut above but I’d take Norris over Suzuki. Don’t think it’s coincidence that he got the exact same contract at 75k more per year.

Norris scored at a better pace last season and scored significantly more goals. Bigger frame. I’d take him over Suzuki and clearly Ottawa thinks so as well. We’ll see how he does moving forward but he should be a perennial 30 goal scorer if not 40 goal scorer.
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Jul. 14, 2022 at 6:04 p.m.
#27
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I think it's too rich for where I'd value him, but the market has been set with Suzuki and the like so it's fair
Jul. 14, 2022 at 6:09 p.m.
#28
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I would have had him pegged in between $7m and $8m on a long-term deal. Seems like the going rate for these young top centers.
Jul. 14, 2022 at 6:12 p.m.
#29
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That's a lot of money for such a short resume. It's too much of a risk, in my opinion.
Jul. 14, 2022 at 6:35 p.m.
#30
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Riding a shooting high, bit worried about this one. Norris basically has 3C stats with a crazy shot impact. If that regresses this will look bad quickly. Even with a good shot, 7m was too much for a player like that in Pacioretty for Vegas to hold onto. I wouldn't have paid more than 6 or so million for Norris. Better to qualify as RFA and see him a) regress and buy lower, or b) him sustain a high shooting percentage to prove that he's an outlier.
Jul. 14, 2022 at 6:39 p.m.
#31
couldnt afford 2nd t
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Quoting: CSStrowbridge
That's a lot of money for such a short resume. It's too much of a risk, in my opinion.


A bridge is a greater risk.

The Senators are not a cap team. His 7.95M cap hit is irrelevant until that changes.

His salary the first 3 years is 5, 6.5, 9.5. That is likely the same as what he would have gotten on a bridge deal (5.75 AAV if 2 years, 7M AAV if 3 years).

No signing bonuses, and he is under 26 for another 2 seasons. If he takes a huge step back, the Senators can buy him out and only pay a penalty of 1M per season.

Escrow is likely to be repaid by the time a bridge deal would end. The cap could be up to 90 million or higher by then. It might quickly approach 100 million. Because the cap is going to shoot up around the same time a bridge would be up, if they bridge him and he turns out to be even a solid 2C, they aren't getting him for much cheaper than an 8M AAV. Maybe they get him for 6.5 or 7 million if he is really unspectacular. If they bridge him and he delivers similar results to last year, he'll make them pay a lot more than 8 million under a rising cap. He will also have leverage to get signing bonuses and a NMC. That's a very important consideration.

At the end of the day, this is not a home run. It is not the Batherson contract. It is perfectly acceptable market value for a young star C. It is better than the alternative of bridging him, and risking that he delivers at a time when the cap is projected to go much higher.

This coming from someone who predicted that they bridge him.
Jul. 14, 2022 at 6:43 p.m.
#32
FanOfAllTeams
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Quoting: budgeteam
A bridge is a greater risk.

The Senators are not a cap team. His 7.95M cap hit is irrelevant until that changes.

His salary the first 3 years is 5, 6.5, 9.5. That is likely the same as what he would have gotten on a bridge deal (5.75 AAV if 2 years, 7M AAV if 3 years).

No signing bonuses, and he is under 26 for another 2 seasons. If he takes a huge step back, the Senators can buy him out and only pay a penalty of 1M per season.

Escrow is likely to be repaid by the time a bridge deal would end. The cap could be up to 90 million or higher by then. It might quickly approach 100 million. Because the cap is going to shoot up around the same time a bridge would be up, if they bridge him and he turns out to be even a solid 2C, they aren't getting him for much cheaper than an 8M AAV. Maybe they get him for 6.5 or 7 million if he is really unspectacular. If they bridge him and he delivers similar results to last year, he'll make them pay a lot more than 8 million under a rising cap. He will also have leverage to get signing bonuses and a NMC. That's a very important consideration.

At the end of the day, this is not a home run. It is not the Batherson contract. It is perfectly acceptable market value for a young star C. It is better than the alternative of bridging him, and risking that he delivers at a time when the cap is projected to go much higher.

This coming from someone who predicted that they bridge him.

Even if he is a middle 6 player the whole time. This puts him to 31 years old which is not awful either
Jul. 14, 2022 at 6:46 p.m.
#33
couldnt afford 2nd t
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Quoting: MelonVK
Riding a shooting high, bit worried about this one. Norris basically has 3C stats with a crazy shot impact. If that regresses this will look bad quickly. Even with a good shot, 7m was too much for a player like that in Pacioretty for Vegas to hold onto. I wouldn't have paid more than 6 or so million for Norris. Better to qualify as RFA and see him a) regress and buy lower, or b) him sustain a high shooting percentage to prove that he's an outlier.


Sens are leveraging their cap space now to lock in his cap hit long term.

If escrow is paid back within 2 seasons, as expected. What will the cap be in the summer of 2025, and what sort of cap projections will they be expecting for the summer of 2026 and beyond?

The cap could have been as high as 88.5 million for the 20-21 season. That doesn't factor in increased HRR from the new US TV deal.

With that kind of raise, you're looking at a 6M player inflating to 7.5+, an 8M player inflating to 10M+, etc.

Norris gave the Senators nothing in terms of help or a discount, but it's still better strategically than the alternative of a bridge deal.
Jul. 14, 2022 at 6:49 p.m.
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Jul. 14, 2022 at 6:50 p.m.
#35
couldnt afford 2nd t
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Quoting: FanOfAllTeams
Even if he is a middle 6 player the whole time. This puts him to 31 years old which is not awful either


If he is a middle 6 player and doesn't live up to the deal, they can buy him out in 2 years before he turns 26 and it will cost them very little. It would likely average out to less than 1 percent of what the cap will be during the duration of the buyout.

Half way through this contract, the elite 3Cs are going to make 6 million instead of the 4.5 they make now. Top 2nd liners will be up to 7.5 or 8 million. There is going to be cap inflation.

The Colin White contract is a perfect example of why these risks are worth taking, because the downside if the player doesn't work out is so minimal. COVID destroyed any upward mobility the salary cap had, and the Senators still were able to have an easy out from the Colin White contract because he was under 26, and the buyout formula at that age is so generous.
Jul. 14, 2022 at 6:53 p.m.
#36
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Quoting: budgeteam
If he is a middle 6 player and doesn't live up to the deal, they can buy him out in 2 years before he turns 26 and it will cost them very little. It would likely average out to less than 1 percent of what the cap will be during the duration of the buyout.

Half way through this contract, the elite 3Cs are going to make 6 million instead of the 4.5 they make now. Top 2nd liners will be up to 7.5 or 8 million. There is going to be cap inflation.

The Colin White contract is a perfect example of why these risks are worth taking, because the downside if the player doesn't work out is so minimal. COVID destroyed any upward mobility the salary cap had, and the Senators still were able to have an easy out from the Colin White contract because he was under 26, and the buyout formula at that age is so generous.


I don’t think he will “Colin white” since he scored 35. He is a core player and he and Stutzle are a elite double punch.
Jul. 14, 2022 at 6:56 p.m.
#37
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He was on pace for 43 goals last season. If he can be a consistent 30-35g contributor, we're in a good place.
Risky contract but could pay off handsomely very soon.
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Jul. 14, 2022 at 7:54 p.m.
#38
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Quoting: FanOfAllTeams
I don’t think he will “Colin white” since he scored 35. He is a core player and he and Stutzle are a elite double punch.


I am not suggesting the same thing will happen to him. I am pointing out that the Senators have an easy out from the contract 2 years from now if they get uneasy about his performance relative to his salary.

Colin White was an example, because the dynamic was similar with extending a player long term right off their ELC. That isn't to suggest they are equal in skill or performance. The season Norris had blew White's contract season out of the water. Which is why Norris got almost twice as much as him. It's just a similar dynamic, with a similar out from the contract.
Jul. 14, 2022 at 8:12 p.m.
#39
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Expected the contract to be big, so overall fair.
Jul. 14, 2022 at 8:16 p.m.
#40
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Quoting: budgeteam
I am not suggesting the same thing will happen to him. I am pointing out that the Senators have an easy out from the contract 2 years from now if they get uneasy about his performance relative to his salary.

Colin White was an example, because the dynamic was similar with extending a player long term right off their ELC. That isn't to suggest they are equal in skill or performance. The season Norris had blew White's contract season out of the water. Which is why Norris got almost twice as much as him. It's just a similar dynamic, with a similar out from the contract.

Alright. White was a waste of a 2015 1st in what was a great draft overall
Jul. 14, 2022 at 8:51 p.m.
#41
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Quoting: Orr28
Looking back, the Sens still won that Karlsson trade that brought Norris, by a long shot.


Sens won the EK situation when EK apparently turned down 10m from the Sens. That 10m should could spend better than the current edition of EK...which the Sharks are find out.
Yea, and what a bonus that trade was to the Sens getting Norris and other assets.
Jul. 14, 2022 at 9:08 p.m.
#42
Orr28
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Quoting: palhal
Sens won the EK situation when EK apparently turned down 10m from the Sens. That 10m should could spend better than the current edition of EK...which the Sharks are find out.
Yea, and what a bonus that trade was to the Sens getting Norris and other assets.


Not to mention the draft pick that got them Stutzle.
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Jul. 14, 2022 at 11:49 p.m.
#43
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Quoting: palhal
Sens won the EK situation when EK apparently turned down 10m from the Sens. That 10m should could spend better than the current edition of EK...which the Sharks are find out.
Yea, and what a bonus that trade was to the Sens getting Norris and other assets.


Sens offer to EK was for show to appease the public.

EK wasn't re-signing with a Melnyk owned team, and they knew that at the time.

There was some weird stuff going on in the lead up to the EK trade that made it seem like Dorion was sabotaging the deal. Teams reportedly felt like they'd ask Dorion what he wanted for EK, Dorion would give them a price, they would meet the price, then Dorion would change it up on them. There was the thing at the trade deadline with Ryan being attached to EK, which made him impossible to trade. Then Dorion sent Mike Hoffman to San Jose, who were at various points a front runner for EK, and eventually landed him. Had Doug Wilson not pulled a fast one and flipped Hoffman to Florida, without Dorion's knowledge or consent, sending Hoffman to San Jose would not only eliminate the destination that EK eventually ended up at, but also lose the Senators a tremendous amount of leverage by eliminating a suitor.

https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/23935807/nhl-denies-eugene-melnyk-negotiating-sell-ottawa-senators

There was a bit of smoke that summer about a potential sale. Because Melnyk was the sticking point with Karlsson re-signing, it makes me wonder if Dorion had any inside knowledge about the possibility of a sale and wanted to try to sabotage a Karlsson trade long enough for a sale to materialize. It's also entirely possible that Dorion, an inexperienced GM, was way in over his head and stalling to try and find a way to gain enough leverage for a satisfactory return. Which is the same thing Sakic did with Duchene, when he eventually lucked out and found his mark in Dorion. (Although this wasn't the first time Dorion was someone's mark for Duchene. Years earlier, Dorion offered Patrick Roy a better package than the one he eventually gave to Sakic for Duchene. He offered Zibanejad and Chabot for Duchene, which Sakic likely regretted turning down.)

To tie all this back to Josh Norris, the Senators got extremely luck with how the Karlsson trade turned out, and Norris is a big part of that. If you go back and read the Karlsson trade thread, the return was unanimously panned. Without the immense luck of the Senators getting their 1C/2Cs in Norris and Stutzle out of that trade, the rebuild would be nowhere right now. Norris was expected to be a 3C, and the 1st was expected to be in the middle or end of the round, which would have gotten the Senators another good but not great prospect like a Lassi Thomson.
Jul. 15, 2022 at 8:53 a.m.
#44
LongtimeLeafsufferer
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Quoting: budgeteam
Sens offer to EK was for show to appease the public.

Thanks for the insight.

But I don't think Melynk had that much to do with EK not resigning. Fans like conspiracy theories, but the fact is players have a choice of teams as UFA, and their "current" have no hold on them.

Gee, I was one guy who loved the trade for the Sens when it was done. But I look at things a little differently. For example the Johnny Gaudreau leaving Calgary. Calgary fans and management shouldn't look at as losing Gaudreau, but as option to use that 10m cap you had allotted to Gaudreau if he had signed......well now the Flames have 10m to spend on other players.

Getting back to EK....Gee, he had a few injuries late in his Ottawa career. Seems like he had peaked and was actually on a downward trend when he was traded to San Jose.
That's one of the risk make when signing a UFA at age 27 to 30 years of age to a seven year contract. Teams are paying for their past performance and are hoping that performance continues to the players mid 30s.
Jul. 15, 2022 at 4:07 p.m.
#45
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Quoting: budgeteam
Sens are leveraging their cap space now to lock in his cap hit long term.

If escrow is paid back within 2 seasons, as expected. What will the cap be in the summer of 2025, and what sort of cap projections will they be expecting for the summer of 2026 and beyond?

The cap could have been as high as 88.5 million for the 20-21 season. That doesn't factor in increased HRR from the new US TV deal.

With that kind of raise, you're looking at a 6M player inflating to 7.5+, an 8M player inflating to 10M+, etc.

Norris gave the Senators nothing in terms of help or a discount, but it's still better strategically than the alternative of a bridge deal.


If you read what I suggested it was only a 1-year-thing, but I also kind of disagree with the premise. Not because you are wrong in that contracts will grow on average, but because it will still take some time to asdjust to the new normal.

But I can be more clear as well - I believe this in an overpay. Even above 5 mil I'm starting to raise eyebrows regarding Norris.
 
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