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Generous Dubois trade but not delusional

Created by: Cardiak
Team: 2022-23 Montreal Canadiens
Initial Creation Date: Jul. 17, 2022
Published: Jul. 17, 2022
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
8$8,000,000
Trades
MTL
  1. Dubois, Pierre-Luc [RFA Rights]
Additional Details:
Analytically Dubois is better everywhere but defensively and QoC. WAR, G/60, EV offense, finishing, and QoT Dubois is the better player. A1/60 they are even. To suggest the return for a guy better than suzuki is any less than suzuki is blasphemy. PPG they were similar but that doesn’t account for all the minutes suzuki played compared to Dubois’s. His G/60 and A1/60 are proof he is better because if given equal playing time, Dubois is a PPG center. It is common knowledge that Dubois wants out and wants montreal but what sense is it for the habs to get him now? To suck slightly less? A Dubois addiction that somehow keeps suzuki means the habs likely don’t finish last but also don’t finish anywhere close to the playoffs. Just wait the 2 years for Dubois to go and play for the habs when their window for actually being competitive opens up again. No point in losing suzuki (which is the known asking price) for Dubois when you can get him 2 years down the line for free. SMH montreal SMH
Buyouts
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2023
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2024
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2025
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
21$82,500,000$76,251,666$1,132,500$5,070,000$6,248,334
Left WingCentreRight Wing
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$4,500,000$4,500,000
LW
UFA - 2
$8,000,000$8,000,000
C
UFA - 1
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$6,500,000$6,500,000
RW, LW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 5
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$3,400,000$3,400,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
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$4,450,000$4,450,000
C
UFA - 3
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$5,500,000$5,500,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 5
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$1,100,000$1,100,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
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$1,700,000$1,700,000
C
UFA - 3
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$2,500,000$2,500,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
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$950,000$950,000 (Performance Bonus$3,500,000$4M)
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$3,400,000$3,400,000
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UFA - 3
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$880,833$880,833 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
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UFA - 1
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$750,000$750,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$4,875,000$4,875,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 4
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$3,500,000$3,500,000
RD
UFA - 3
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$10,500,000$10,500,000
G
NMC
UFA - 4
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$875,000$875,000
LD/RD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$212,500$212K)
RD
RFA - 2
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$2,875,000$2,875,000
G
UFA - 1
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$842,500$842,500 (Performance Bonus$507,500$508K)
LD/RD
RFA - 1
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$762,500$762,500
RD
UFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
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$5,500,000$5,500,000
LW, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 1

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Jul. 17, 2022 at 1:18 a.m.
#1
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ngl that was so long i did not read all of it but you’re very correct, montreal fans undervalue PLD because they see him as a sure thing and overvalue suzuki who is good but not a superstar or anything. winnipeg should not under any circumstance accept montreal’s scraps in return and montreal should just wait to get him in UFA if he’s such a sure thing
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Jul. 17, 2022 at 1:19 a.m.
#2
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Glep
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Quoting: bagelbob
ngl that was so long i did not read all of it but you’re very correct, montreal fans undervalue PLD because they see him as a sure thing and overvalue suzuki who is good but not a superstar or anything. winnipeg should not under any circumstance accept montreal’s scraps in return


I like the honesty and yes it was a lot lol
Jul. 17, 2022 at 1:20 a.m.
#3
Nick
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I agree with you assessment, but seeing that trade still pissed me off icl. I know Hab fans undervalue Dubois/overvalue
Suzuki a bit and that Dubois is better than Suzuki fs rn, but why nevertheless the hell would the Habs do this? I know you talked about how they should just wait for him to be a UFA, which i agree with, but the Habs wouldn’t have to trade Suzuki to get him. Winnipeg doesn’t have crazy leverage with Dubois right now and Suzuki is basically the face of the franchise right now. You really don’t need to give up Suzuki for Dubois. Fiala and Dubois are similar player quality wise, albeit Dubois being more proven and being a center, and Fiala only went for a 1st and a B prospect. Dvorak + 2023 FLA 1st + B prospect + 2nd + (another good asset) should low key be more than enough to get it done in real life considering the circumstances at hand. Great, but not generational young centers that want to be traded dont tend to get the crazy hauls some people expect. Just look at the Eichel trade, they basically got two good mid 1sts, Tuch and a 2nd for him, not a really young proven stud like Suzuki. Leverage plays huge here imo
Jul. 17, 2022 at 1:28 a.m.
#4
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Glep
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Quoting: SlafCaufZuki
While Dubois is better than Suzuki, why the hell would the Habs do this? I know you talked about how they should just wait for him to be a UFA, which i agree with, but the Habs wouldn’t have to trade Suzuki to get him. Winnipeg doesn’t have crazy leverage with Dubois right now and Suzuki is basically the face of the franchise right now. You really don’t need to give up Suzuki for Dubois. Fiala and Dubois are similar player quality wise, albeit Dubois being more proven and being a center, and Fiala only went for a 1st and a B prospect. Dvorak + 2023 FLA 1st + B prospect + 2nd + (another good asset) should low key be more than enough to get it done in real life considering the circumstances at hand.


I mean even if it was enough, why? To suck less? It basically damn near guarantees the habs don’t finish last and therefore don’t get a top 3 pick guaranteed. They still finish near the bottom but it is so bad for them to not be the best at being the worst. In a league like this you have to either be the best at winning or the best at losing to be really in a good direction imo. If your winning you’re in the best direction at that given moment but if you are the best at losing then you are on the right path to rebuild most efficiently. Given the circumstance Dubois’ value is down but I would imagine they just keep him till they get an actual package worth taking for Dubois’ value, not an overpay or an underpay on paper just something worth Dubois on paper.
Jul. 17, 2022 at 1:29 a.m.
#5
ht42
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Quoting: bagelbob
ngl that was so long i did not read all of it but you’re very correct, montreal fans undervalue PLD because they see him as a sure thing and overvalue suzuki who is good but not a superstar or anything. winnipeg should not under any circumstance accept montreal’s scraps in return and montreal should just wait to get him in UFA if he’s such a sure thing


The problem is Dubois can be the next 2018-19 Nylander 2.0 : go on strike to receive only want he want, means only having a 2 years contract or being traded to Montreal.

An personally, that's 100% true, but a lot of people underestimated Habs players for no reason.
Jul. 17, 2022 at 1:33 a.m.
#6
ht42
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Quoting: Hurricanes73
I mean even if it was enough, why? To suck less? It basically damn near guarantees the habs don’t finish last and therefore don’t get a top 3 pick guaranteed. They still finish near the bottom but it is so bad for them to not be the best at being the worst. In a league like this you have to either be the best at winning or the best at losing to be really in a good direction imo. If your winning you’re in the best direction at that given moment but if you are the best at losing then you are on the right path to rebuild most efficiently. Given the circumstance Dubois’ value is down but I would imagine they just keep him till they get an actual package worth taking for Dubois’ value, not an overpay or an underpay on paper just something worth Dubois on paper.


Dubois value will fall down during the time, because every others GM's know that he will sign with the Habs in 2024.
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Jul. 17, 2022 at 1:36 a.m.
#7
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Glep
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Quoting: ht42
Dubois value will fall down during the time, because every others GM's know that he will sign with the Habs in 2024.


No I mean from a ****ing habs perspective. What sense does it make. You can get him for free in two years and not enter no man’s land with not being good enough for a top pick but not good enough for the playoffs. By the time Dubois is on the open market, the habs window opens up for contention but before that it makes little to no sense for the habs to acquire him. He’s not the missing piece to a championship team, he is the piece that Carry’s to mediocrity
Jul. 17, 2022 at 1:51 a.m.
#8
ht42
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Quoting: Hurricanes73
No I mean from a ****ing habs perspective. What sense does it make. You can get him for free in two years and not enter no man’s land with not being good enough for a top pick but not good enough for the playoffs. By the time Dubois is on the open market, the habs window opens up for contention but before that it makes little to no sense for the habs to acquire him. He’s not the missing piece to a championship team, he is the piece that Carry’s to mediocrity



I'm not surprised if the Habs want to be competivite at the 2023-24 season, not at 2024-25.

- They will likely clean up the Habs line-up (Drouin, Hoffman, Allen, Armia, Dvorack, etc.) and they will free up like 23M in their cap space at the 2023 free agency (including Dubois contract).
- They will try to draft Bedard, Fantilli or Dvorsky and they will try to make a huge push about signing a free agent (especially Huberdeau)

I don't think making a 4-5 years rebuild will be a good idea for them, because they already have some great young plaayers (Suzuki, Caufield, Ghule, Barron, Harris).
Jul. 17, 2022 at 2:01 a.m.
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Glep
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Quoting: ht42
I'm not surprised if the Habs want to be competivite at the 2023-24 season, not at 2024-25.

- They will likely clean up the Habs line-up (Drouin, Hoffman, Allen, Armia, Dvorack, etc.) and they will free up like 23M in their cap space at the 2023 free agency (including Dubois contract).
- They will try to draft Bedard, Fantilli or Dvorsky and they will try to make a huge push about signing a free agent (especially Huberdeau)

I don't think making a 4-5 years rebuild will be a good idea for them, because they already have some great young plaayers (Suzuki, Caufield, Ghule, Barron, Harris).


You do realize that getting Dubois means they fall out of contention for those top 4. They turn into a 5th-7th worst team with that addition. 2023-2024 is not the season to compete. Obviously having drouin, bryon, and dadonov adds cap space but a lot of that is going to resigning caufield. I’d imagine they suck for two years and not one. Getting Dubois now means they are in no man’s land and just delay the rebuild. U are suggesting a 2 year rebuild, I am suggesting a 3 year one. The difference is that a three year one is much more realistic if you have back to back top picks where as a 2 year rebuild means things are accelerated therefore meaning the a top pick wouldn’t be there. Habs aren’t going to go from B2B lottery winners to championship contenders. Give a year of leeway and even then it’s not even real contenders, rather playoff contenders who turn into contenders over the next few years. Dubois now makes no sense, just gonna hurt in the long run.
Jul. 17, 2022 at 2:25 a.m.
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Quoting: ht42
The problem is Dubois can be the next 2018-19 Nylander 2.0 : go on strike to receive only want he want, means only having a 2 years contract or being traded to Montreal.

An personally, that's 100% true, but a lot of people underestimated Habs players for no reason.


a two year deal’s not the end of the world. retain salary and trade him to another team for two years, someone’ll give up a 1st and a good prospect for him for two seasons, especially at like a 3.5mil cap hit.
Jul. 17, 2022 at 2:26 a.m.
#11
Go Habs Go
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Dubois and Suzuki are close enough you could make an argument for one or the other, but there's no benefit to making that swap.
Suzuki is a known quantity in Montreal, at a known cost, not to mention younger and good chemistry with Caufield.
Dubois is bigger and ... Frencher?

Having Suzuki and Dubois, makes sense. If you can only have one, might as well stick with Suzuki.
 
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