Forums/Armchair-GM

Season Prediction

Created by: christianyog
Initial Creation Date: Jul. 20, 2022
Published: Jul. 20, 2022
Team: 2022-23 Winnipeg Jets
Team Explanation
There are rumors that the Canadiens want to send Jake Evans, but that would lead into bad team chemistry. So instead I included Armia over Evans. Armia is a player that we all know very well, and clearly has done better in Winnipeg than Montreal. Also the Canadiens want to send Dvorak to us and the Jets want Dach included. The first rounder is included to even out the value.

Rumor has it that the Jets are looking to trade Dillon away. This will clear up cap space to sign Dach, I feel like he will want less money than Dubois. The Wheeler trade will also clear up cap, he goes to a city that needs a leader. The Jets have considered trading Wheeler since draft day.

Bold prediction: Lucius will make the Jets roster. But if he isn't included, the Jets will go with the 11F 7D combo which will have Stanley as the 7th defenseman.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Dach, Kirby4$2,000,000
Trades
1.
WPG
  1. Dvorak, Christian
  2. Dach, Kirby [RFA Rights]
  3. Armia, Joel
  4. 2023 1st round pick (MTL)
MTL
  1. Dubois, Pierre-Luc [RFA Rights]
2.
WPG
  1. 2023 3rd round pick (DET)
DET
  1. Dillon, Brenden
3.
WPG
  1. 2023 2nd round pick (WPG)
SEA
  1. Wheeler, Blake
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2023
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Logo of the NYR
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2024
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2025
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$82,500,000$68,292,023$0$2,612,500$14,207,977
Left WingCenterRight Wing
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Connor, Kyle
$7,142,857
LW
UFA - 4
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Scheifele, Mark
$6,125,000
C
NTC
UFA - 2
Dach, Kirby
$2,000,000
C, RW
RFA - 4
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Ehlers, Nikolaj
$6,000,000
RW, LW
NTC
UFA - 3
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Lucius, Chaz
$925,000
C
RFA - 3
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Perfetti, Cole
$894,167
C, RW
RFA - 2
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Dvorak, Christian
$4,450,000
C, LW
UFA - 3
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Barron, Morgan
$925,000
C
RFA - 1
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Armia, Joel
$3,400,000
RW, LW
UFA - 3
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Toninato, Dominic
$750,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
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Lowry, Adam
$3,250,000
C
NTC
UFA - 4
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Harkins, Jansen
$850,000
LW, C
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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Morrissey, Joshua
$6,250,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 6
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Pionk, Neal
$5,875,000
RD
UFA - 3
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Hellebuyck, Connor
$6,166,666
G
UFA - 2
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Samberg, Dylan
$925,000
LD
RFA - 1
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DeMelo, Dylan
$3,000,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 2
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Rittich, David
$900,000
G
UFA - 1
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Heinola, Ville
$863,333
LD
RFA - 2
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Schmidt, Nate
$5,950,000
LD/RD
NTC
UFA - 3
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Berdin, Mikhail
$750,000
G
RFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
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Stanley, Logan
$900,000
LD
RFA - 1

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Jul. 20 at 10:35 a.m.
#1
CherieOuEstMonBeck
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Can't see the Habs including their unprotected 2023 1st.
Jul. 20 at 10:37 a.m.
#2
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I'd be pretty comfortable in predicting none of Montreal, Detroit or Seattle would be interested in those deals.

Quoting: SevenLeg
Can't see the Habs including their unprotected 2023 1st.


I can't even see them including Dach. Especially if he'd sign that kind of contract. They also don't "want" to send Dvorak to the Jets, they're getting calls on him and he makes sense in a Dubois trade as a poor-man's Dubois.
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Jul. 20 at 10:40 a.m.
#3
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I would think Chevy asks for compensation for taking Armia as a dump, so as another 1st. Either that or switch Armia for Barron.
Jul. 20 at 10:52 a.m.
#4
Darkblade
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MTL's 2023 first is a automatic no lmao even if armia is in the deal.
Jul. 20 at 10:58 a.m.
#5
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MTL not going to pay all that for a guy they can just wait and sign in 2 years. its Dvorak or Dach certainly not both and thats if the habs even consider including Dach i think they would be offering Dvorak, and their 1st is not included unless its protected.
The jets dont have a whole lot of leverage in this deal.
Jul. 20 at 10:58 a.m.
#6
Habs4Ever
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Quoting: Windjammer
I would think Chevy asks for compensation for taking Armia as a dump, so as another 1st. Either that or switch Armia for Barron.


No chance you get : Suzuki Caufield Slafkovsky Dach Guhle MTL 2023 1st RD pick
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Jul. 20 at 11:09 a.m.
#7
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Quoting: Burnout
I'd be pretty comfortable in predicting none of Montreal, Detroit or Seattle would be interested in those deals.



I can't even see them including Dach. Especially if he'd sign that kind of contract. They also don't "want" to send Dvorak to the Jets, they're getting calls on him and he makes sense in a Dubois trade as a poor-man's Dubois.


Agreed Dvorak is rumoured cuz it makes sense. Also havent seen a single thing that MTL is looking get rid of Evans, they love everything he brings and he's on a terrific contract for his production and thats before adding in his PK work and overall defensive game.
Jul. 20 at 11:32 a.m.
#8
MisstheWhalers
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All these teams decline, there's a base for a Dubois trade but need to swap some pieces in and out like replace the Habs 1st with Florida's 1st for one, might have to swap Dach for a different prospect but otherwise its likely what a Dubois to Montreal would look like.
Jul. 20 at 11:35 a.m.
#9
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Quoting: AlakHul
MTL's 2023 first is a automatic no lmao even if armia is in the deal.


agreed. The FLA 1st makes sense
if the habs dont wanna part with Dvorak then Id be happy with them taking Hoffman, but the habs would need to add a little bit more to offset the value
Jul. 20 at 11:37 a.m.
#10
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Quoting: MisstheWhalers
All these teams decline, there's a base for a Dubois trade but need to swap some pieces in and out like replace the Habs 1st with Florida's 1st for one, might have to swap Dach for a different prospect but otherwise its likely what a Dubois to Montreal would look like.


How attached can the habs be to Dach? I mean...if he can be the centerpiece in a PLD trade I think they pull the trigger right away. Dach is coming off a rough season and hasnt really had a great start to his career
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Jul. 20 at 11:47 a.m.
#11
Go Habs Go
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All told, this would result in Montreal having invested three 1sts, including a 13th overall and potential top 10 (and in the Berard lottery), as well as a 2nd and 3rd.

Dubois isn't worth all of that without at least giving the players we have a legitimate shot at 2C first, and even then it's a lot to pay for a player who keeps wanting to move.
Montreal's 1st is off the table period. Even Florida's 1st should be protected. We just built up some C depth after getting knocked back last season and avoided drafting a C, it's not the time to be throwing multiple centers away and Poehling was already moved.
Jul. 20 at 12:01 p.m.
#12
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Edited Jul. 20 at 12:07 p.m.
I can see Cheveldayoff running it back ... to 19th overall.

Wheeler: The reported desire not to retain any salary on a Blake Wheeler trade probably means at this point nothing happens, as most teams that are trying to make the playoffs have already done the bulk of their cap allocation already.

Dubois: I believe the Jets will have him this season and look to trade him at the 2023 TDL (if the Jets are out of the playoff race) to a team that wants PLD for two playoff runs. Otherwise, look for a 2023 offseason trade.

Dillon: Eight defenseman that are not exempt from waivers -- Morrissey (L), DeMelo (R), Samberg (L), Pionk (R), Dillon (L), Schmidt (R), Kovacevic (R), Gawanke (R), so even if you start Heinola and Samberg in the AHL, you'd have to carry two defenseman as healthy scratches without some sort of move. Dillon would be the easiest to move given his play and cap hit.
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Jul. 20 at 12:06 p.m.
#13
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Quoting: masterjuddi
How attached can the habs be to Dach? I mean...if he can be the centerpiece in a PLD trade I think they pull the trigger right away. Dach is coming off a rough season and hasnt really had a great start to his career


They literally just traded the 13th and 66th OA picks for him. So its safe to say that they value him at the value. Would they move him as a centerpiece in a deal for him? Depending on what else is involved. But they're not going to move him, good prospects/picks and roster players like Dvorak for Dubois. Even if Dubois didn't want to test free agency in two years (reportedly to play in Montreal), they just started a rebuild and are waiting for expiring contracts to create cap space.

The OP's proposal is an unlikely return for him even if Dubois didn't want to test free agency in two years and hadn't signaled a preference as to where he would want to go.
Jul. 20 at 12:11 p.m.
#14
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PLD value according to this is higher than Eichel and Mark Stone trades combined. Yeah okay
Jul. 20 at 12:32 p.m.
#15
MisstheWhalers
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Quoting: Koskinen_The_Great
PLD value according to this is higher than Eichel and Mark Stone trades combined. Yeah okay


And most everyone said Ottawa didn't get enough for Stone so what does that comparison have to do with anything, Debrincat was worth more, so was Hall, is every trade going to be compared to those deals, probably not.
Jul. 20 at 12:38 p.m.
#16
Molson beer is meh
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Zero % chance Habs pay this much for Dubois.

I think everyone needs to fully understand that neither Hughes nor Cheveldayoff are in any hurry to get this deal done. The only people who are being impatient are Brisson (PLD's agent) and Dubois himself. I keep seeing both fan bases arguing that their respective teams have all the leverage..... when, at the moment, everyone is right!

The Jets have leverage, because well, they have the player under their control for the next 2 years. End of story. They can just sit and do nothing for 2 years, and during all that time, Dubois will still be a Jet.

The Habs have leverage, because well, they don't need PLD. He isn't a priority. End of story. Would they like to have him? Sure! But why pay for something expensive when you can get him essentially for free in 2 years. MTL isn't trying to be competitive during the next 2 year, so spending "premium" assets, that are better served for your rebuild, makes no sense to the organization.


HOWEVER. I believe Cheveldayoff made a huge mistake not electing for team arbitration with Dubois...as this would of eliminated another parties leverage....PLD's....
Not electing for team arbitration opened the door to PLD having the power to remain without a contract to force a trade. I've seen articles written that it sill leaves PLD open to signing an Offer Sheet (OS), which is true... but no one, especially MTL, will sign Dubois to an OS and potentially losing an unprotected 1st rd pick... and besides, WIN have the cap space to match basically anything. The main problem now is if Dubois decides to sit and refuse to sign a contract until he's traded...and with Chevy looking like he still wants to be competitive...this could be a huge chocking point. The biggest question with PLD now, is how badly does he want to be a Montreal Canadiens? Enough to want to sacrifice $$$ until he gets what he wants? Then again, Brisson's comments never specified he doesn't want to play for the Jets, nor that he wouldn't want to be traded to other NHL teams.
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