Edited Jul. 20, 2022 at 11:53 a.m.
Yep, the only Tkachuk gamble worth exploring is if he would sign for 7x3 and it cost Knies & Robertson +picks, assuming Muzzin would be moved out easily and Sandin signs for 2x3. Holl and Kerfoot would need to be move out as well.
The result: next season Bunting will likely be gone and there will be no replacement coming from the prospect pool most likely. Along with him, Engvall and Kase will have to be replaced, perhaps Gaudette and Aube-Kubel as well if they are awful or prices themselves out above Engvall+Kase's cap hits. So, the Leafs would be looking for a top 6 spot again. The defense would probably be weaker in the upcoming season and perhaps the next as well.
Worst case scenario, is the Leafs lose Matthews and Nylander in two years and then Marner and Tkachuk the year after and Tavares is no longer elite. The Tkachuk trade would have cost at least Knies, Robertson, and two firsts so the prospect pool might not be replenished compared to the Leafs' current pool which isn't very strong. Knies and Robertson are PPG players in the first year that they both play a full season in CGY, and CGY drafts two studs with the 2023 and 2024 firsts.