Reasonable Dubois Offer

Forums/Armchair-GM

Page 1 of 1

Created by: Shanesaw9

Team: 2022-23 Montreal Canadiens

Initial Creation Date: Jul. 19, 2022

Published: Jul. 20, 2022

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

This is what I feel is a reasonable offer from MTL for Dubois. Jets fan's may not love it but Pat Brisson cornered the market by publicly stating Dubois wants to play in MTL. Essentially any other team would only be trading for 2 years of Dubois which gives MTL the edge in negotiations. Trade breakdown:

1. Dvorak
I think it's obvious that any Dubois trade should include Dvorak. The Jets would be interested in a C to replace Dubois and MTL won't need Dvorak anymore either. Dvorak is probably the ideal roster player for the Jets to get from MTL in this trade, his career PPG is 0.5 compared to Dubois' 0.66. For what it is worth, under St. Louis Dvorak had 17 pts in 22 GP, a pace of 63 pts over 82 games (Dubois had 60 pts for WPG). Dvorak was just traded for a 1st & 2nd round pick to give you an idea of value, he is at least a 1st round pick asset. He is only 2 years older than Dubois, but signed cheaper for 3 more years. He may not have Dubois' upside, but Dvorak is a NHL ready replacement.

2. Armia
Armia is a real buy low player right now. Up until last season Armia has been a good player for MTL, I would expect him to bounce back seeing as everyone sucked in MTL last season. He just had a dominant performance at the world championship to help Finland win gold and he was a big part of MTL's strong 4th line a year ago which lead to a Stanley Cup final appearance. He doesn't move the needle much, but he can kill penalties, has good hands, and he is a RW with size which I believe is a fit for the Jets. He is a necessary addition to the trade for MTL to clear space for Dubois, but he isn't just a cap dump either (if he is the 4th round pick offsets that anyways).

3. 2023 1st Round Pick
IMO WPG needs a future included to make this deal worth it, which is what they get with a 1st round pick. The pick is not necessarily protected, but it is conditional on WPG getting the lower of MTL's or FLA's 1st round pick (for example if they are both top 10 WPG gets a top 10 pick).

So there's what I feel is a reasonable package. If you were to break it down to just draft pick value I feel Dvorak, Armia, 1st, 4th = 2 1st, 2nd, 3rd = Offer sheet Compensation for $8.4M - $10.5M players.

To me, that is the best offer the Jets are gonna get for Dubois, the question then becomes will they trade Dubois or do they keep him and go all in?

Hoffman trade gives Arizona an upgrade and helps them meet the cap floor, MTL gets a lesser player but frees up ~ $1.3M to sign Dach.

Wouldn't be a bad lineup... would need Price to cover for a questionable D group.

Free Agent Signings

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Dach, Kirby	2	$2,000,000
Dubois, Pierre-Luc	8	$7,500,000
Primeau, Cayden	2	$762,500

Trades

MTL

Dubois, Pierre-Luc [RFA Rights]

WPG

Armia, Joel
Dvorak, Christian
2023 1st round pick (FLA)
2023 4th round pick (PIT)

Additional Details:

Conditions: WPG gets the later of MTL's first round picks.

MTL

Kassian, Zack
2024 7th round pick (BOS)

ARI

Hoffman, Mike

Buyouts

Karl Alzner: $833,333

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2023
2024
2025

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$82,500,000	$77,247,499	$1,132,500	$4,982,500	$5,252,501

Roster

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Drouin, Jonathan $5,500,000$5,500,000 LW, RW M-NTC UFA - 1	Dubois, Pierre-Luc $7,500,000$7,500,000 C UFA - 1	Anderson, Josh $5,500,000$5,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 5
Slafkovsky, Juraj $950,000$950,000 ($3,500,000$4M) RW, LW RFA - 3	Suzuki, Nick $7,875,000$7,875,000 C UFA - 8	Caufield, Cole $880,833$880,833 ($850,000$850K) LW, RW UFA - 1
Dadonov, Evgeni $2,500,000$2,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 1	Dach, Kirby $2,000,000$2,000,000 C, RW RFA - 4	Gallagher, Brendan $6,500,000$6,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 5
Pitlick, Rem $1,100,000$1,100,000 LW, RW UFA - 2	Evans, Jake $1,700,000$1,700,000 C UFA - 3	Kassian, Zack $3,200,000$3,200,000 RW UFA - 2

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Matheson, Michael $4,875,000$4,875,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 4	Savard, David $3,500,000$3,500,000 RD UFA - 3	Price, Carey $10,500,000$10,500,000 G NMC UFA - 4
Edmundson, Joel $875,000$875,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 2	Barron, Justin $925,000$925,000 ($212,500$212K) RD RFA - 2	Allen, Jake $2,875,000$2,875,000 G UFA - 1
Guhle, Kaiden $863,333$863,333 ($420,000$420K) LD/RD RFA - 3	Wideman, Chris $762,500$762,500 RD UFA - 2

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Byron, Paul $3,400,000$3,400,000 LW, RW UFA - 1
Pezzetta, Michael $750,000$750,000 LW, RW UFA - 1
Schueneman, Corey $750,000$750,000 LD/RD UFA - 1

Special Teams

Power Play 1
Slafkovsky, J.		Suzuki, N.		Dubois, P.
	Caufield, C.		Matheson, M.

Power Play 2
Drouin, J.		Dach, K.		Dadonov, E.
	Anderson, J.		Barron, J.

Penalty Kill 1
	Suzuki, N.	Dach, K.
	Guhle, K.	Savard, D.

Penalty Kill 2
	Pitlick, R.	Evans, J.
	Edmundson, J.	Barron, J.

Jul. 20, 2022 at 1:54 p.m.

jschultz18

Why not us

Joined: Jun. 2022

Posts: 319

Likes: 97

This is not reasonable whatsoever.

Windjammer, SydBarrett and Garak liked this.

Jul. 20, 2022 at 1:57 p.m.

Blues4TheCup

Joined: Apr. 2017

Posts: 1,567

Likes: 502

Winnipeg declines. I would say something Like Dvorak, Drouin, Good Prospect and a FLA 1st. Maybe Guhle or Ylonen.

Wpgman liked this.

Jul. 20, 2022 at 1:58 p.m.

Shanesaw9

Thread Starter

Habs 2010

Joined: May 2020

Posts: 1,517

Likes: 949

Quoting: jschultz18

This is not reasonable whatsoever.

Never claimed it was great, but it's a reasonable offer given the circumstances. If the Jets are seeking more than a return valued at 2 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd round pick then I would say good luck with that, can't see MTL going higher than that even though they are the team with the most incentive to make the greatest offer.

Jul. 20, 2022 at 1:59 p.m.

Shanesaw9

Thread Starter

Habs 2010

Joined: May 2020

Posts: 1,517

Likes: 949

Quoting: Blues4TheCup

Winnipeg declines. I would say something Like Dvorak, Drouin, Good Prospect and a FLA 1st. Maybe Guhle or Ylonen.

Guhle off limits, but Ylonen is an option. Was thinking Jets would prefer Armia over Drouin.

Jul. 20, 2022 at 2:01 p.m.

Just_A_Guess

Joined: Apr. 2021

Posts: 4,867

Likes: 3,241

I'd rather keep Armia. I also think there's a prospect missing from the WPG trade imo. Dvorak + '23 first guaranteed, then at least one quality prospect and possibly an additional lesser piece (later draft pick like the 4th you added and/or another lesser prospect/asset)

Just move Hoff to ARI for penny's on the dollar and don't take a player back. Armia does just fine on the 4th, no need to move him just to bring in Kassian at essentially the same pay rate.

Shanesaw9 liked this.

Jul. 20, 2022 at 2:02 p.m.

Just_A_Guess

Joined: Apr. 2021

Posts: 4,867

Likes: 3,241

Quoting: Shanesaw9

Guhle off limits, but Ylonen is an option. Was thinking Jets would prefer Armia over Drouin.

Drouin represents a bigger upside with less of a gamble as he's only got 1 year remaining, plus we could add retention for that year just to top it off

Shanesaw9 and Wpgman liked this.

Jul. 20, 2022 at 2:02 p.m.

Windjammer

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 15,733

Likes: 6,991

Zero chance Chevy accepts 25% of what Dubois gets at the TDL in two years, including a cap dump that they haven't been compensated for.

SydBarrett, Jetsdood27 and bunzy1034 liked this.

Jul. 20, 2022 at 2:04 p.m.

SydBarrett

Syd Barret

Joined: Sep. 2018

Posts: 934

Likes: 464

How on earth is a cap dump a third line center and a late 1st a reasonable offer for a 1st line center just entering his prime lmao.
Habs fans are absolutely delusional.

Would you accept this offer for Suzuki???

Windjammer, SK101, Jetsdood27 and 1 other person liked this.

Jul. 20, 2022 at 2:07 p.m.

Black61

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 2,614

Likes: 1,666

The really is no point in making even that offer to the Jets.

Acquiring PLD now vs as a free agent actually hurts the rebuild more than helps.

Your giving away essentially 2+ 1st round picks worth of value (depending on the deal) right out of the gate. Important to note that Florida 1st is unconditional we could be giving up a top 15 pick if Florida flounders this upcoming year.

He doesnt make the habs a playoff team in the next 2 years where we wouldnt otherwise be. Realistically only a starting goalie or #1 RD could have that impact. The only thing it could do is move us up a couple spots which may take us out of the top 5 next draft which would be undesirable.

Finally the money. Even after this trade we would need to move another person out for the cap unles PLD is signing for 5 million (which isnt happening). He could also pose a problem for the internal cap structure as well

Shanesaw9 liked this.

Jul. 20, 2022 at 2:07 p.m.

#10

habs_need_Scoring

Joined: Aug. 2020

Posts: 1,612

Likes: 787

Quoting: Blues4TheCup

Winnipeg declines. I would say something Like Dvorak, Drouin, Good Prospect and a FLA 1st. Maybe Guhle or Ylonen.

maybe ghule or Ylonen? is your take that those are similar level prospects lol.

Jul. 20, 2022 at 2:08 p.m.

#11

habs_need_Scoring

Joined: Aug. 2020

Posts: 1,612

Likes: 787

Quoting: pensburgh571

no we wouldnt. Suzuki is also signed for 6 more years and not as risk of walking in 2 years and also hasnt made it public knowledge that he wants to play for one team when he leaves lol. Great comparison though.

Shanesaw9 liked this.

Jul. 20, 2022 at 2:12 p.m.

#12

Just_A_Guess

Joined: Apr. 2021

Posts: 4,867

Likes: 3,241

Quoting: habs_need_Scoring

shhh, let them flounder lol

Shanesaw9 liked this.

Jul. 20, 2022 at 2:12 p.m.

#13

Shanesaw9

Thread Starter

Habs 2010

Joined: May 2020

Posts: 1,517

Likes: 949

Quoting: pensburgh571

If you can't tell the difference between Suzuki, who is locked up for 8 years, vs Dubois who has 2 years before free agency in which he and his agent has made it clear he wants to go to MTL... then I don't know what to say

Jul. 20, 2022 at 2:15 p.m.

#14

Shanesaw9

Thread Starter

Habs 2010

Joined: May 2020

Posts: 1,517

Likes: 949

Quoting: Black61

I agree, which is why I thought this was a reasonable offer. It's a strong offer from the habs given the circumstances. Jets fan's think Dubois gets 4x this at the TDL lol.

Quoting: Windjammer

Zero chance Chevy accepts 25% of what Dubois gets at the TDL in two years, including a cap dump that they haven't been compensated for.

8 1st round picks coming the Jets way 2023 TDL.

habs_need_Scoring liked this.

Jul. 20, 2022 at 2:17 p.m.

#15

Timmah007

Joined: Jun. 2020

Posts: 8,634

Likes: 3,931

Very reasonable offer in my opinion. If jets want to continue exploring good for them doubt will do better.

Shanesaw9 liked this.

Jul. 20, 2022 at 2:38 p.m.

#16

SK101

Joined: Feb. 2022

Posts: 3,146

Likes: 2,825

Quoting: Timmah007

Very reasonable offer in my opinion. If jets want to continue exploring good for them doubt will do better.

Jets probably get a late first, third, and good prospect for Dubois as a rental. If they get him to sign a two year deal they could half retain and get an even better return.

Shanesaw9 liked this.

Jul. 20, 2022 at 2:52 p.m.

#17

Shanesaw9

Thread Starter

Habs 2010

Joined: May 2020

Posts: 1,517

Likes: 949

Quoting: SK101

Jets probably get a late first, third, and good prospect for Dubois as a rental. If they get him to sign a two year deal they could half retain and get an even better return.

True, this is essentially the same offer except they get Dvorak & Armia instead of a prospect... so that's the decision.

They could wait 2 years and explore options now, or they can trade Dubois now instead of dragging this out.

habs_need_Scoring liked this.

Jul. 20, 2022 at 3:42 p.m.

#18

Timmah007

Joined: Jun. 2020

Posts: 8,634

Likes: 3,931

Quoting: SK101

Jets probably get a late first, third, and good prospect for Dubois as a rental. If they get him to sign a two year deal they could half retain and get an even better return.

It's easy to say things like that but teams don't generally retain unless absolutely needed. Don't see the jets doing so with a player that doesn't want to play for them.

Page 1 of 1

DISPLAY SETTING

BETTING ODDS

LOCALE

ARCHIVE

CBA

CALCULATORS

FANTASY HOCKEY TOOLS

TOOLS

PLAYERS

WESTERN CONFERENCE

EASTERN CONFERENCE

INTERACTIVE FEATURES

Forums/Armchair-GM