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2021-2022 NHL Offseason Discussion Thread #9 - The Demise (Revival?) of Calgary

Jul. 21 at 8:33 p.m.
#51
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Quoting: Alfie11
See above for the technical description, but I think the way to interpret it is that Hughes likely tries to enter the zone with possession more often than dumping it in and forechecking (since he’s highly skilled and highly skilled players like the puck on their sticks, plus he’s not exactly a huge physical presence) and just isn’t as successful at that yet as he likely will become (like Gaudreau has no problem dangling into the zone, and I anticipate that due to his speed and skill, Hughes will reach a similar level).


i think that's what it's saying but he's also among the best in the league at 'carry + chances'

Quoting: jfresh
Carries + Chances: Carry entries that lead directly to a scoring chance. Helps to differentiate between carry entries where a player gains the zone, heads towards the outside and tries to establish possession (and possibly turns it over) and carry entries that lead to something more immediately dangerous.
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Jul. 21 at 8:33 p.m.
#52
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Quoting: Db1899
I’m still surprised Nino only got 4 mill x 2.

These teams should have had no problem giving him 4.25-4.5 mill x 3-4 years: Carolina, Toronto ,isles , Sharks, Devils


Actually scratch the isles - he would never play for them again. Guy was buried on the 4th line with Pandolfo and Reasoner and then wasn’t even invited to training camp the following season. I bet a lot of people don’t remember that lol
Jul. 21 at 8:33 p.m.
#53
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Quoting: Alfie11
He’s literally Darryl Sutter’s dream player lol


Yeah the flames too ha
Jul. 21 at 8:34 p.m.
#54
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Did any of you know Toronto and Montréal have the same 3 abbreviations?
MTL & TML
MTL > TML
But TML is my 2nd fave team
Jul. 21 at 8:37 p.m.
#55
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Hoffman, isn't a cap dump. Tuch was a former 2nd rounder.
Jokiharju at best is a 3RD
#5 dman on a contender
Hoffman is a 3rd liner on a contender
3rd would do it

So. Hoffman, Luke Tuch + 3rd = Jokiharju tears of joy
Jul. 21 at 8:42 p.m.
#56
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Quoting: DirtyDangle
i think that's what it's saying but he's also among the best in the league at 'carry + chances'

Probably because when he goes to the outside he loses the 1v1, but when he cuts to the inside he creates scoring chances at a higher rate relative to the league average chance creation off of zone entries? I think they define entry success relative to that 88% number. So even if he loses control once out of every 5 tries, he’d be below average. Something like that. Could probably be interpreted as good rush offense, but always tries to create something off the rush, rather than establish in-zone possession? Idk for sure cuz I don’t watch the Devils but that might explain it.
Jul. 22 at 12:49 a.m.
#57
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I just realized that Troy Grosenick is essentially Philadelphia’s #1 goalie right now. With no goalies and DeAngelo & Ristolainen on D, it is shaping up to be a real fun year for the Flyers’ defense.
Jul. 22 at 1:05 a.m.
#58
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Quoting: Kotkaniemi15
I just realized that Troy Grosenick is essentially Philadelphia’s #1 goalie right now. With no goalies and DeAngelo & Ristolainen on D, it is shaping up to be a real fun year for the Flyers’ defense.


What's wrong with Hart?

Also they have JVR and a couple extra picks that they could have traded to sign Gaudreau
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Jul. 22 at 1:05 a.m.
#59
Farewell
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Quoting: Kotkaniemi15
I just realized that Troy Grosenick is essentially Philadelphia’s #1 goalie right now. With no goalies and DeAngelo & Ristolainen on D, it is shaping up to be a real fun year for the Flyers’ defense.


Hart got hurt again? Haven't seen that.
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Jul. 22 at 1:21 a.m.
#60
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Quoting: Kotkaniemi15
I just realized that Troy Grosenick is essentially Philadelphia’s #1 goalie right now. With no goalies and DeAngelo & Ristolainen on D, it is shaping up to be a real fun year for the Flyers’ defense.


Would be a good time to call SJS they got 3 goalies rn and need to move one

Adin Hill for a 3rd or something sounds about right.
Jul. 22 at 1:22 a.m.
#61
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Quoting: BuFfaLOFaN
What's wrong with Hart?

Also they have JVR and a couple extra picks that they could have traded to sign Gaudreau


Teams realized that and demanded a 1st to take JVR. As when you can sabotage Gaudreau's hometown team from getting him why not demand a lot to take on a cap dump like JVR.
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Jul. 22 at 3:22 a.m.
#62
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Quoting: Saskleaf
Exactly. Hot take here, Jack Hughes is high on the list of overrated players. He’s not bad at all but he’s not like a top 5 centre or anything, nor is there any guarantee that he will ever be.

Someone ban this guy
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Jul. 22 at 3:35 a.m.
#63
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Quoting: Tintin
Someone ban this guy


He has got a point. When thinking of top centers he falls behind at least Mackinnon, Barkov, McDavid, Bergeron, Draisaitl, Matthews to mention few.
Also: he is bad on faceoffs, mediocre on defense, doesn't hit/block/grind.
Sure he is elite with the puck, I'll grant you that.
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Jul. 22 at 3:54 a.m.
#64
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Quoting: Db1899
It’s just the players rate of success when trying to enter the zone. I’m not sure why it’s so low for Hughes.


Quoting: BuFfaLOFaN
Yea, I'd like to know, but I'd also assume entry that turns into goal?


Quoting: DirtyDangle
someone want to explain 'entry success' to me.


What usually happens is that 9/10 times he loses the possession briefly and either quickly retries with another entry or immediately regains possession within the o zone.

The thing is that he’s such a monster on transition that the amount of successful entries still are in the 99th percentile, this in turn suggests that he has the most amount of entries attempted in the league.

It’s like someone shooting the puck a ton but with a very poor shooting percentage, and yet is top 5 in goals scored. I suppose that’s the easiest way too think about it, but for entries.
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Jul. 22 at 3:58 a.m.
#65
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Edited Jul. 22 at 4:04 a.m.
Quoting: HelmutCool
He has got a point. When thinking of top centers he falls behind at least Mackinnon, Barkov, McDavid, Bergeron, Draisaitl, Matthews to mention few.
Also: he is bad on faceoffs, mediocre on defense, doesn't hit/block/grind.
Sure he is elite with the puck, I'll grant you that.


1 - I was being facetious
2 - Jack is above the NHL average in defensive impacts
3 - face-off % truly don’t matter. They are the weakest predictor for getting a goal for or against in that same sequence of play. Also, Jack doesn’t really take faceoffs, that’s Sharangovich’s or Mercer’s job when playing on Jack’s line.
4 - I think Jack is a top C in the league even though he isn’t quite as good as the guys you mentioned. I don’t see the contradiction here.
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Jul. 22 at 4:09 a.m.
#66
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Quoting: Tintin
1 - I was being facetious
2 - Jack is above the NHL average in defensive impacts
3 - face-off % truly don’t matter. They are the weakest predictor for getting a goal for or against in that same sequence of play. Also, Jack doesn’t really take faceoffs, that’s Sharangovich’s or Mercer’s job when playing on Jack’s line.
4 - I think Jack is a top C in the league even though he isn’t quite as good as the guys you mentioned. I don’t see the contradiction here.


#faceoffsdontmatter
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Jul. 22 at 4:14 a.m.
#67
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Quoting: Db1899
#faceoffsdontmatter


Arguably they do as if your a C who averages 60% or greater like Giroux, Tavares, and Bergeron you put the fear of god in your opponent as faceoff goals off the draw do happen and when your in a defensive pinch having a guy who wins them is a godset

Danault highlighted that a few years ago
Jul. 22 at 4:27 a.m.
#68
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Edited Jul. 22 at 10:57 a.m.
Quoting: aadoyle
Arguably they do as if your a C who averages 60% or greater like Giroux, Tavares, and Bergeron you put the fear of god in your opponent as faceoff goals off the draw do happen and when your in a defensive pinch having a guy who wins them is a godset

Danault highlighted that a few years ago


Well, on average this is wrong.
There’s been some research on this, can try and link later.
But having a high faceoff percentage does (on average) not have any casual link to a higher goals or points percentage.

What matters at the the start of a play sequence is if you as defender can transition the puck up the ice, or as an attacker can keep the puck in the o zone. And it appears that faceoff percentage cannot even predict this! What really matters here is if your players are more talented or better coached as a line than the current opposition.
Just so happens that the guys you mentioned are or were among the best skaters in the league…
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Jul. 22 at 4:46 a.m.
#69
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preach.

faceoffs dont matter. there doesnt seem to be any correlation between faceoffs and wins. you're just as likely to find a top faceoff team at the bottom of the league. faceoff percentage is as useless as plus/minus.
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Jul. 22 at 4:48 a.m.
#70
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Quoting: DirtyDangle
preach.

faceoffs dont matter. there doesnt seem to be any correlation between faceoffs and wins. you're just as likely to find a top faceoff team at the bottom of the league. faceoff percentage is as useless as plus/minus.


I mean face offs can be pretty valuable as it determines who was possession of the puck… especially on the penalty kill. Would you want to lose a face off in your zone against McDavid and Draisaitl on the powerplay? I think not. Possession = goals
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Jul. 22 at 4:53 a.m.
#71
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Quoting: Juiceman
I mean face offs can be pretty valuable as it determines who was possession of the puck… especially on the penalty kill. Would you want to lose a face off in your zone against McDavid and Draisaitl on the powerplay? I think not. Possession = goals


special teams might be the only time it matters but otherwise most of the time possession chanes quick enough that its irrelevant.

it would be interesting to compare top faceoff teams to see if they do better on the powerplay. but like i said before there doesnt seem to be any correlation between wins and being good at faceoffs.
Jul. 22 at 5:07 a.m.
#72
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Quoting: DirtyDangle
preach.

faceoff percentage is as useless as plus/minus.


It just seems like another inefficient piece of information so many of us in the hockey community are hung up on.
Plus/minus, number of blocked shots, number of hits, player size (!!!), it all just seems pertinent cus it’s easy for the broadcasters to track and make cheap talking points about and easy as a viewer to wrap your head around.
In reality, these are all just fuzzy datapoints that fails to explain much of anything as to why certain teams succeed and others don’t.
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Jul. 22 at 9:12 a.m.
#73
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Quoting: Juiceman
I mean face offs can be pretty valuable as it determines who was possession of the puck… especially on the penalty kill. Would you want to lose a face off in your zone against McDavid and Draisaitl on the powerplay? I think not. Possession = goals


Overall it doesn’t matter. For every 1 faceoff win that leads to a goal there are 100+ that have no impact on the game
Jul. 22 at 9:28 a.m.
#74
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Quoting: Db1899
Overall it doesn’t matter. For every 1 faceoff win that leads to a goal there are 100+ that have no impact on the game


That would probably mean that in every other game there is a goal that is an direct result on an faceoffwin? (If awerage 50 faceoffs/game.) It adds up, as there is not an ppg in every game either.
Jul. 22 at 9:40 a.m.
#75
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Quoting: HelmutCool
That would probably mean that in every other game there is a goal that is an direct result on an faceoffwin? (If awerage 50 faceoffs/game.) It adds up, as there is not an ppg in every game either.


Lol I meant to add an extra 0

Heres a good article on why they don’t matter.

https://theleafsnation.com/2021/11/23/how-important-are-faceoffs-in-hockey/
 
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