Edited Jul. 24, 2022 at 2:57 p.m.
Quoting: T0R
Thats how you know you understand exactly 0 of the Leafs contract situations, Only 2 guys are signed past 2026 They are Jarkrok & Rielly. The Leafs are relying on the cap increasing but in Bettmans own words “The Debt will have been payed off & the Cap should increase exponentially in the 2025-26 season i see a 4-7 mil increase. That being said until
then will be hell but the Leafs situation is not as bad as people think. They have pieces they can move & as stated before they will have a ton of Cap Maneuverability & Marner & Matthews are already worth their extensions plus JT will most likely take a discount which basically might equate to the raises of both MM & AM
I thought Bettman said the rise should be expected for the 24-25 season most recently.
Anyways I wasn't saying that the Leafs have a major problem with their cap now-it's more of an inconvenience. As you pointed out, the Leafs only have 2 contracts for 2026 and beyond. The Leafs don't have to do anything but if Dubas is still around (and even id he's not it's what the next guy should do) is keep the 4 and that will likely result in the same total $ amount to retain the 4 (could be more or less). Until there is a massive rise though and perhaps even a year after, they could still experience a cap squeeze.
Assuming Tavares gets 7x3, Nylander 9.5, Marner 12, and Matthews 13.1, the dollar value is the same. Worst case, Liljegren and Sandin replace Brodie and Muzzin on the books, but to replace Gio at 900K (barring ELCs like Niemela) will result in a 2.1m increase in cost (should be covered by the 2m increase from 2023-2025). Goaltending in this scenario won't be an issue since there is 6.5m allocated already. There will be two top 6 spots to fill, since Kerfoot's allocation needs to come off the books for the Leafs to be compliant after signing Sandin if he takes 2m. So, the allocation increase of the top 6 would be Bunting+Engvall, ~3.1M total. So depending on how much the top 6 for the 2026 are making it could increase the cap squeeze that they are facing now in the top 6, bottom 6 fwds, and bottom 6 def, or the squeeze could remain relatively the same.
If the cap increase of the 2025-26 season is 10m, then they won't be facing much of a squeeze except in the bottom six assuming the top 6 guys take 7 of the 10m in my scenario.
Possibilities that could lead to more relief: 1) Minten @2-3m can replace Tavares@7m in 3 years then that's more relief. 2) A cheap top 6 signed through 2025-26,ex. Bunting is signed for 3.1mx4 next season or Robertson is signed for 2-3m through 2025-26 and Knies gets 3-6m coming off ELC. 3) Matthews walks 4) Nylander walks or is traded for a cost controlled replacement
Possibilities that could lead to less cap: 1) Matthews signs for 14-15m 2) Nylander is retained for 11M. 3) Brodie is resigned for 2-3 years after his contract expires at 4m.
In short, it is easy to say Dubas made a mistake in his thinking of allocating a lot to elite forwards but we will truly never know because of the flat cap or if they do it again.
TB's strategy was paying 3F-1D-1G, will be interesting to see how that works out for them without the use of LTIR. I think they will have to shift to 2F-2D-1G next season. That being said it seems Dubas views his core as 4F-3D (the five+Brodie & Muzzin who ideally get replaced by Liljegren&Sandin). TB's is probably 3F-3D-1G, Point, Kucherov, Stamkos (will be Cirelli), Hedman, Sergachev, Cernak (previously McDonagh), Vesi. I think Stamkos might get moved out next season. Extended core would be the 3C/future 3Cs in Paul and Järnkrok.