I feel like Nick Robertson is hella underrated so I'd probably take it

No, thanks. I would do one or the other as the starting point in a Nylander deal (E.G, Necas+Bear+2nd OR 1st+___+___) but not both. He's coming off a career year which looks unsustainble. I'd love him in Raleigh, but if he's a UFA in 2 years anyway, might as well take the chance there when Toronto will have to focus on re-signing future Arizona Coyotes captain Auston Matthews

Edit: Carolina also physically do not have the cap space to take on 7 million dollars

Oh, you're looking to bait some emotional TOR fans with that comment aren't you.

What, Carolina not having the cap space to do this, or not wanting to do Necas + 1st for Nylander?

Respectfully - if the offer for Tkachuk was Necas + 1st the Nylander trade using same structure would be Necas straight up. Tkachuk is a much better player.

In what world does Timo Meier gets more in a trade than William Nylander. Also if that was Carolina's offer for Tkachuk, then its no wonder he's a Panther right now

Not sure how you think Nylander's production is unsustainable, his production each year shows natural progression, his line also didn't have that good of a year in terms of 5v5 play last year for a good portion of the year (they were giving up as much as they were scoring), so he will probably have a better production.

I realize that Carolina doesn't have the cap, but if they actually did make an offer for Tkachuk, who would obviously be well above 7m, then that would mean that they could make this work. Personally, I think Necas+ 1st is an underwhelming return for Nylander -even if Necas can be just as good or better- but it matches the risk for Carolina, and Necas potentially being just as good as Nylander and the 1st is the motivation for the Leafs to do the trade.

If Tkachuk is a better player than Nylander, then Necas+a 1st for Tkachuk was a lowball.

it obviously wasnt a good offer

I would say Nylander is better than Meier, but TOR can't say we are underselling our player, so lower your ask. Or they can't say to Carolina we are going to pay a king's ransom for a year of Meier, so give us more even though this trade puts you over the cap.

Ok, we will keep our assets and you can keep your thing.

You're missing the other reported piece in the Carolina offer -- Teravainen. I've seen it reported (I don't know how accurate and I cannot remember where) that Teravainen was the other piece making up that package. Clears the cap, and sends back a HELL of a player. While that might not have been enough, the money (roughly 4 mil in cap now + Teuvo's 5.4) would have been enough to get Tkachuk done. Tkachuk is also a MUCH better player than Nylander.

Nylander's production last year came with a remarkably high PDO, and a high shooting percentage. He made his money on the powerplay. Not exactly worth much at even strength. Necas in his down year (remembering, Necas is 3 years younger than Nylander, can ACTUALLY play Center, and is still under team control as opposed to being a UFA in 2 years) just isn't something I'd consider doing here. This doesn't work in multiple aspects.

He probably is but like Marchement and so many prospects before him, management might not have the time to be patient enough for him to develop.

I would rather the Canes cut our Toronto here and trade for Meier.

Yep sure was - and honestly I highly doubt that was the actual offer for Tkachuk. It’s been reported that the Canes were in the running to the end and had the best ‘futures’ offer. It would have needed more than Necas + 1.

I wasn’t sure why you modeled your trade after this ‘rumor’. Seemed as if you were comparing Nylander and Tkachuk.

Nylander's powerplay points is ~30% of his points, which is average among most players. He was still 20th in the league for projected 5v5 goals (https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1550992912506408960?s=20&t=7Keiz3XLegiAaRUru2bvJw). Nylander probably can't play C anymore, but to be fair he was only tried at the playoffs 2 years ago (few games, high pressure situation), I think the last time he played C before that was sometime in the playoffs. That being said they wouldn't be trading for him to play C.


As for Teuvo, he has a M-NTC or NTC, so moving him at this time in the off-season might be difficult but he's a good player like you said. So chances are that there could be moves that facilitate this trade, if not then the deal wouldn't happen.

I'm not saying these trades are perfect for any of the teams but they are within the realm of possibility.

Nylander's PDO last season 100.4 (this was the lowest of his career? ) his shooting % (13.3) Career (11.9) how is that a crazy shooting %
Tkachuk's PDO last season 105.4 (highest of his career) his shooting % (16.6) Career (13.5%)

if anyone is going to regress next year it's Matthew freakin Thachuk

The difference between Nylander and Tkachuk in terms of production is a year in Tkachuk's favor in terms of age and massive breakout and/or outlier year. The way I see it, Nylander is one year older, and is at where Tkachuk was last year. I do think Tkachuk will take a massive step back but playing with Barkov, he will likely still get 85- 90 pts. I also think Nylander is the more skilled player from the two, and if he were to be the first option like Tkachuk was/is, playing with Aho, he will likely have 90+ pts as well.

The reason why I "modelled" it off that rumor is because it shows the willingness of CAR to move on from Necas and the 1st, but also take a 7m+ player. You did mention that Teuvo would also be going the other way, here CAR could potentially move him for assets if not, then of course they wouldn't put themselves in a tight spot.

I think teams saw more value in Tkachuk being young and being "a unicorn" than the 100-pt season but they can't just ignore that in negotiations but they also saw CGY was in a tough position, so they can hope him being overvalued because of that season + CGY's predicament cancel each other out in terms of cost acquisition. Treliving did say Florida's offer was by far the best.

Won’t go too deep into the MT trade offer which supposedly was more than Necas and a first (maybe Turbo or Skjei plus somebody like Morrow or Drury) but don’t think the situations are too close. MT is better and was signing long term. Nylander is very good and an upgrade on Necas in the short term for sure but likely wouldn’t sign an extension in CAR.

I think the value here is fair but unless they can find a way to dump Gardiner the trade isn’t possible. I wouldn’t want to move Skjei or turbo either in this deal or separately just to fit in Nylander. Would rather keep Necas. Maybe before the Patches deal this would’ve worked better but I still think I prefer that so we can keep Necas and the first plus have patches for at least a year.

I personally would very much rather the Leafs exercise patience even if it costs Dubas his job and keep Nylander until they can see if signing him+Matthews is realistic (if Matthews leaves in ufa, they are going to need him). As for the 2LW position, they should see what happens in the season in terms of Robertson's development and other players, and then go from there to see what they can add later in the season if need be.

However, this mock trade isn't based on my wants, it's based on the idea of Toronto getting Meier as a rental, an expensive one at that, and the suggested trades are within the realm of possibility, doesn't mean that the respective fanbases have to like them and I'm not saying there is a high chance of this happening either.

Meier will cost them more than Necas and a 1st and Meier's QO next year is 10m. So unless he's coming with an extension prior to the trade, I don't see Waddell touching a Meier trade with a 200-ft pole.

On that note, what do you think CAR would add on top of Necas+a 1st+ Gardiner (for example) for Meier's (with an ~8m AAV extension)?

Difference is... I'd trade Teuvo for Tkachuk, I would not do it for Nylander. 100 point Matthew Tkachuk and even if he doesn't reach 100 points again, just hits 80 is a dominant defensive player and is an underlying pest? Yeah. Winger that gets to play with Auston Matthews, and is coming of the best year of his career which appears unsustainable? God no.

Tkachuk will regress. Certainly. But he's also a very good two way player, Nylander is openly not. Tkachuk is a nasty SoB. Nylander... not. Tkachuk knows exactly how to get under peoples skin... Nylander can, but not as much. If they both regress to the same degree, I'd still rather have Tkachuk

Nylander only plays with Matthews on the powerplay (and like I said Nylander's powerplay points % of total points is within average career-wise and last season) he spent most of the year with Tavares and some one line 3 with Engvall and Kampf which quite frankly was analytically better than the prior when the Kerfoot-Tavares-Nylander line had a slump (Tavares had a 13-game goaless drought last year which hasn't had since his rookie season).

I was saying Teuvo gets traded elsewhere to make the Nylander trade work cap-wise but since they wouldn't be replacing his skillset, then it could be someone else that they trade.



There is no reason to think Nylander will regress in overall production even if his shooting percentage goes down. He's not a defensive liability, doesn't give up the pick nearly as much as Tkachuk does, he has more takeaways than giveaways, he's good at zone entry. You wouldn't be getting Nylander to play defense. The only concern about acquiring him is fitting him under the cap, the risk of losing him but that's why they wouldn't give up too much, and his laziness/fit in the Hurricanes system.

We dont mind paying for young power forwards. The QO doesnt scare me that much as we have a ton of cap space for next year. If a long term extension cant be reached, we can do the QO and just give us more time for a contract. Meier will be young enough that we would pursue the contract. Doing it before the QO would be beneficial.