Nick Paul better

Nick Paul better

This is a very interesting deal. I thought he’d get 2x2 to see what he really is, and Formenton would be the guy who would get a medium term deal like this. He’s still relatively unproven, but his floor is as a very fast, effective PKer in the bottom 6. This is a lot of money for that floor, so the hope is he has some offensive upside. He had 12 goals in 56 games with Tampa in 20-21, and 12 points in 11 games with us to end the year. I don’t expent him to be a point per game player, but if he can be a 15-20 goal, 35-40 point guy on the 3rd line, this will be fair value. If he can continue to mesh as the complementary piece with Tkachuk and Norris on a top 6 line and put up 50+ points while being the energy guy that injects some speed (Tkachuk isn’t exactly fast) while also helping Norris with the matchup game, and thus allow Batherson or Giroux to play down on the 3rd line with Formenton and Pinto, this contract will be a huge W.

Ultimately I think it’s a very promising sign that a guy wants to stay here for several years, and the last time we let a speedy middle six winger walk who wanted a similar deal it didn’t turn out great. Although I think we offered Duke 3x3 a year before the Cats gave him that? So idk what really happened there, maybe he just wanted to test the market and overplayed his hand but didn’t want to skulk back to Ottawa, but regardless he’s gone now, but Joseph is here to stay, which is nice to be able to say about players now.

It’s definitely a good bet. I really like the dual threat that is him and Formenton on the PK. Being able to counter-attack with speed will likely lead to a lot of SHGs. I’m not sure what his offensive upside really is, because he was solid in 20-21 and looked like a potential 20 goal guy, then was mediocre for Tampa last year, then was absurdly good for us. Something back around 20-20-40 is hopefully within reason, and would make this an excellent deal when combined with his defensive play. But as you can see from his carry exits, carry entries, and recoveries, he’s at the very least the type of guy who blows by everyone to exit our zone and enter theirs with speed, or gets there first on dump-ins. That’s always helpful to have, and is very useful when combined with a guy who can wire it like Norris. If he works on his playmaking, he could for sure be a very useful top 6 guy on that line.

Ottawa is going to have some serious cap gymnastics next off-season with Stutzle and Debrincat costing close to 17 million together. 13 million for a starting goalie, 2 top 4 defenders, and a couple of forwards.