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2021-2022 NHL Offseason Discussion Thread #10 - Kadri oh Kadri, wherefore art thou Kadri?

Aug. 3, 2022 at 3:37 p.m.
#476
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Quoting: HockeyScotty
Is he counting the dead cap money or just the active contracts?


Quoting: HockeyScotty
Understood; I guess I can't get past the actual on the ice roster construction at the moment.


He counts the dead cap money, just not players on ELC or goaltending

Yeah the Bruins are are top heavy. Their worst contracts have been signed over the last 2 seasons (Coyle + Lindholm)
Aug. 3, 2022 at 3:40 p.m.
#477
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Quoting: PointStamkosVasilevskiy219188
I felt the whole list was lacking because it excluded goalies for apparently no reason other than to make things easier for the writer. If goalies had been included, Panthers would never have been #1 (Bobrovsky bumps them down), Leafs probably would have been a tad lower (Murray), and the Rangers would've skyrocketed (Shesterkin). Flawed article.

I don’t think it’s just “to make things easier for the writer.” I’m pretty sure that Dom has talked about this before, he hasn’t perfected the aging curve for goalies yet, mostly because they’re voodoo and can randomly pull a career year out of nowhere at 37, which most skaters typically don’t. There’s also (obviously) far less raw data for goalies, and advanced analytics for goalies is still significantly behind skaters. So he can tell you what the market value is, but the data on that is basically “Are you capable of starting 50+ games? If yes, here’s 5-7mil. If no, here’s 2-4mil.”
Aug. 3, 2022 at 3:56 p.m.
#478
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@aadoyle remember you’ve been wondering why Devils bothered qualifying Wood at 3.5m.
Well, look at this.



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Aug. 3, 2022 at 4:17 p.m.
#479
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Quoting: Alfie11
I don’t think it’s just “to make things easier for the writer.” I’m pretty sure that Dom has talked about this before, he hasn’t perfected the aging curve for goalies yet, mostly because they’re voodoo and can randomly pull a career year out of nowhere at 37, which most skaters typically don’t. There’s also (obviously) far less raw data for goalies, and advanced analytics for goalies is still significantly behind skaters. So he can tell you what the market value is, but the data on that is basically “Are you capable of starting 50+ games? If yes, here’s 5-7mil. If no, here’s 2-4mil.”


There is probably a lot more behind this "start X games get X dollars" concept than it first appears.

The current average salary per goalie start in the NHL is $92,618 (I imputed Oettinger at around $6.1 million AAV). This might come down some if Mike Smith and Jonathan Bernier retire; but not much.

If your team has:
Workhorse (59-72 starts) then his salary is probably $6,112,814
1A (47-58 starts) then salary is probably $4,908,775
Tandem (33-46 starts each) = $3,797,354
1B (19-32 starts) = $2,685,933
Backup (10-18 starts) = $1,481,894
*definitions of role set at the time the contract was signed, of course.

Price, Bobrovsky, and Vasilevsky blow the top end but they are the extreme outliers; with guys like Swayman, Comrie, Vejmelka (all 1A's) bringing things back into average.

Quick and Petersen push the "tandem" average up but surprisingly even the three-headed monster in San Jose is below average ($7,175,000 combined) and Ottawa comes in at $6,416,667. Tandem vs 1A/1B is hard to determine for each team at this point.

Essentially you can average all of the NHL teams out to spending $7.5 million AAV per team on goaltending for the whole season. For every Montreal ($14,375,000) there is a Buffalo ($4,150,000) and for every Tampa Bay ($10,400,000) there is a Colorado ($6,150,000). 19 out of 32 teams fall within the range of $6,075,000 to $9,000,000 in total goalie investment.
Aug. 3, 2022 at 4:25 p.m.
#480
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Quoting: HockeyScotty
There is probably a lot more behind this "start X games get X dollars" concept than it first appears.

The current average salary per goalie start in the NHL is $92,618 (I imputed Oettinger at around $6.1 million AAV). This might come down some if Mike Smith and Jonathan Bernier retire; but not much.

If your team has:
Workhorse (59-72 starts) then his salary is probably $6,112,814
1A (47-58 starts) then salary is probably $4,908,775
Tandem (33-46 starts each) = $3,797,354
1B (19-32 starts) = $2,685,933
Backup (10-18 starts) = $1,481,894
*definitions of role set at the time the contract was signed, of course.

Price, Bobrovsky, and Vasilevsky blow the top end but they are the extreme outliers; with guys like Swayman, Comrie, Vejmelka (all 1A's) bringing things back into average.

Quick and Petersen push the "tandem" average up but surprisingly even the three-headed monster in San Jose is below average ($7,175,000 combined) and Ottawa comes in at $6,416,667. Tandem vs 1A/1B is hard to determine for each team at this point.

Essentially you can average all of the NHL teams out to spending $7.5 million AAV per team on goaltending for the whole season. For every Montreal ($14,375,000) there is a Buffalo ($4,150,000) and for every Tampa Bay ($10,400,000) there is a Colorado ($6,150,000). 19 out of 32 teams fall within the range of $6,075,000 to $9,000,000 in total goalie investment.

Yeah NHL GMs seem far more concerned with games played and wins than they do with GSAX or even SV%. And it’s nice that you’ve got some data there because I’ve long suspected that teams tend to prefer to spend almost exactly 10% of the cap on goalies (6mil starter + 2mil backup, or 4.5mil 1A + 3.5mil 1B, etc.). There’s certainly a lot of room for improvement in how goalies can be evaluated analytically, and I think some of it is out there, but only in the private sphere. For example, how goalies fare against rush chances, cross-ice one-timers, rebounds, etc. would be super helpful for evaluating how good they are, and especially for evaluating how they fit into a certain system, but I don’t think this kind of puck-tracking data is publicly available for manipulation unless you track it manually yourself.
Aug. 3, 2022 at 4:31 p.m.
#481
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Quoting: Alfie11
I don’t think it’s just “to make things easier for the writer.” I’m pretty sure that Dom has talked about this before, he hasn’t perfected the aging curve for goalies yet, mostly because they’re voodoo and can randomly pull a career year out of nowhere at 37, which most skaters typically don’t. There’s also (obviously) far less raw data for goalies, and advanced analytics for goalies is still significantly behind skaters. So he can tell you what the market value is, but the data on that is basically “Are you capable of starting 50+ games? If yes, here’s 5-7mil. If no, here’s 2-4mil.”


Maybe that's the case, but then the article shouldn't be written, as it's dumb to say "The Panthers have the best contract efficiency in the league if you don't count goalies"-because that's quite a big "if", Bobrovsky would bump them down a couple of spots at least. (Also worth noting that the Rangers would be significantly higher due to Shesterkin's bargain contract.)

Also, while the advanced stats for goalies are for sure significantly behind those for skaters, I don't think it's too hard to assess the value of their contracts relative to their performances, I think there's enough raw data available for that, though admittedly this last point is more contestable.
Aug. 3, 2022 at 4:37 p.m.
#482
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Quoting: PointStamkosVasilevskiy219188
Maybe that's the case, but then the article shouldn't be written, as it's dumb to say "The Panthers have the best contract efficiency in the league if you don't count goalies"-because that's quite a big "if", Bobrovsky would bump them down a couple of spots at least. (Also worth noting that the Rangers would be significantly higher due to Shesterkin's bargain contract.)

Also, while the advanced stats for goalies are for sure significantly behind those for skaters, I don't think it's too hard to assess the value of their contracts relative to their performances, I think there's enough raw data available for that, though admittedly this last point is more contestable.

I really think the raw data on goalies is lacking. Even GSAX isn’t perfect, due to some flaws in typical xG models. And you only get data on 2 goalies per game (usually), vs. 36 skaters, so there are far less comparables, especially because we only have data for like 15 years at best, less depending on what you specifically want. I also think there are other factors you’d have to bring in, such as fatigue (i.e. playing both halves of a back to back, or starting 5+ consecutive games) that can affect performance.
Aug. 3, 2022 at 5:07 p.m.
#483
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Quoting: Tintin
aadoyle remember you’ve been wondering why Devils bothered qualifying Wood at 3.5m.
Well, look at this.





Still 3.5mill for a 4th liner who didnt play last year to me is not worth it. As honestly why spend on someone who didnt play when you could go out and get a Tyler Motte or ZAR heck even a Sonny Milano for half the cost.
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Aug. 3, 2022 at 5:22 p.m.
#484
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Quoting: aadoyle
Still 3.5mill for a 4th liner who didnt play last year to me is not worth it. As honestly why spend on someone who didnt play when you could go out and get a Tyler Motte or ZAR heck even a Sonny Milano for half the cost.


i agree in principal but id say wood is solidly a 3rd liner.
Aug. 3, 2022 at 5:32 p.m.
#485
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Seravalli (on the DFO Rundown podcast) on what the Isles would need to do if they want sign Kadri:

"You gotta move money. Noah Dobson needs a new deal, Romanov needs a new deal. My guess, if the Islanders are indeed signing Nazem Kadri, they’re gonna have to move someone and my guess would be Anthony Beauvillier. We’ve heard his name in the mix to move, and this was pre-draft. Clearly, that’s the one player the New York Islanders have on their roster that I think they can actually get something of value in return for as opposed to having to push to try and unload a contract."
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Aug. 3, 2022 at 5:33 p.m.
#486
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Quoting: DirtyDangle
i agree in principal but id say wood is solidly a 3rd liner.


Maybe but when he did play it was with Mcleod and Bastian on the 4th line. And while you could move Johnsson to the 4th line it seems a bit unfair considering he did have a nice rebound season last year. So idk what the plan is but either way I think they should have not given him a QO then signed him to a 1 year 2mill deal or something
Aug. 3, 2022 at 5:38 p.m.
#487
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Quoting: aadoyle
Still 3.5mill for a 4th liner who didnt play last year to me is not worth it. As honestly why spend on someone who didnt play when you could go out and get a Tyler Motte or ZAR heck even a Sonny Milano for half the cost.


He's going to arbitration and with him being injured all of last year, his cost will be closer to 2M
Aug. 3, 2022 at 5:38 p.m.
#488
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Edited Aug. 3, 2022 at 5:46 p.m.
Quoting: PointStamkosVasilevskiy219188
Seravalli (on the DFO Rundown podcast) on what the Isles would need to do if they want sign Kadri:

"You gotta move money. Noah Dobson needs a new deal, Romanov needs a new deal. My guess, if the Islanders are indeed signing Nazem Kadri, they’re gonna have to move someone and my guess would be Anthony Beauvillier. We’ve heard his name in the mix to move, and this was pre-draft. Clearly, that’s the one player the New York Islanders have on their roster that I think they can actually get something of value in return for as opposed to having to push to try and unload a contract."


I feel if Isles do get Kadri it should be a C whose moved as if hes added they got

Nelson, Barzel, Pageau, Cizikas on top of newly added Kadri. And I know Nelson can play wing but his best season came when he was at the C position so its gonna be interesting to see what they do
Aug. 3, 2022 at 5:41 p.m.
#489
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Quoting: Devil
He's going to arbitration and with him being injured all of last year, his cost will be closer to 2M


It says if Arb rules in Devils favor they can take 15% off the 3.5 so 2.975mill but if they rule in his favor the QO is given.

So 2.975-3.5mill will be the deal for I believe 1 to 2 years. So still not great

Honestly would have talked to him about not giving a QO then going k will give 2mill x 1 year to make sure all goes well then give him a better deal once he shows hes still got it
Aug. 3, 2022 at 5:47 p.m.
#490
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Smaller than 31/31 NHL Arenas
Smaller than 29/31 AHL Arenas
Smaller than 24/26 ECHL Arenas
Aug. 3, 2022 at 5:52 p.m.
#491
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Quoting: Devil




Smaller than 31/31 NHL Arenas
Smaller than 29/31 AHL Arenas
Smaller than 24/26 ECHL Arenas


Fun fact it says 5000 but actually factoring in some things its actually 4850 or something

So yeah not great and yet BETTMAN WONT MOVE EM

Also man that first tweet is bad. As yes its cheaper but man that would be really bad for the NHL
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Aug. 3, 2022 at 5:53 p.m.
#492
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Quoting: Devil




Smaller than 31/31 NHL Arenas
Smaller than 29/31 AHL Arenas
Smaller than 24/26 ECHL Arenas


I personally thought one of the most subtle funny moments of the draft was when the Coyotes president and CEO spoke before Armstrong made the pick and said "To ASU, thank you for welcoming us into your family"-and you could hear people in the crowd laughing

But let me tell you: Once Cooley, Guenther and Geekie are NHL-ready (and hopefully they'll have a new stadium by then), the Coyotes will be a joke no longer
Aug. 3, 2022 at 6:01 p.m.
#493
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Edited Aug. 3, 2022 at 6:23 p.m.
Quoting: PointStamkosVasilevskiy219188
Seravalli (on the DFO Rundown podcast) on what the Isles would need to do if they want sign Kadri:

"You gotta move money. Noah Dobson needs a new deal, Romanov needs a new deal. My guess, if the Islanders are indeed signing Nazem Kadri, they’re gonna have to move someone and my guess would be Anthony Beauvillier. We’ve heard his name in the mix to move, and this was pre-draft. Clearly, that’s the one player the New York Islanders have on their roster that I think they can actually get something of value in return for as opposed to having to push to try and unload a contract."


Assuming they sign Dobson at $5.0 million AAV and Romanov $2.5 million that leaves them with $2.0 million in space + Beauvillier $4.125 million = $6.125 million for Kadri; it still is really tight; is that enough?

Does Barzal or Nelson move to wing?

Who can or would take Beauvillier at this point and return a decent asset?
Anaheim? Winnipeg? Detroit? Columbus?
Aug. 3, 2022 at 6:05 p.m.
#494
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Quoting: Devil




Smaller than 31/31 NHL Arenas
Smaller than 29/31 AHL Arenas
Smaller than 24/26 ECHL Arenas


Smaller than 23 NCAA Division-I Arenas
Aug. 3, 2022 at 6:24 p.m.
#495
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Quoting: PointStamkosVasilevskiy219188
Seravalli (on the DFO Rundown podcast) on what the Isles would need to do if they want sign Kadri:

"You gotta move money. Noah Dobson needs a new deal, Romanov needs a new deal. My guess, if the Islanders are indeed signing Nazem Kadri, they’re gonna have to move someone and my guess would be Anthony Beauvillier. We’ve heard his name in the mix to move, and this was pre-draft. Clearly, that’s the one player the New York Islanders have on their roster that I think they can actually get something of value in return for as opposed to having to push to try and unload a contract."


Moving Beauvillier wouldn’t be enough, it would have to be Bailey or Varlamov.
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Aug. 3, 2022 at 6:55 p.m.
#496
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tears of joy

<a href=8-C52302-B-5-D97-483-F-BBE1-476360-AB9-D01">
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Aug. 3, 2022 at 6:59 p.m.
#497
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Farewell
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Quoting: Db1899
tears of joy

<a href=8-C52302-B-5-D97-483-F-BBE1-476360-AB9-D01">


Trade Barzal and sign a 32-year-old to a 7 year deal but "Islanders can still be in win-now mode" laugh laugh laugh

Isles fans/beat writers never fail to amaze
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Aug. 3, 2022 at 8:23 p.m.
#498
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Edited Aug. 3, 2022 at 8:33 p.m.
yams got 2 x $3.1m. looks like edm is at the cap now.
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Aug. 3, 2022 at 8:25 p.m.
#499
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Quoting: DirtyDangle
yams got 2 x $3.1m. Looks like edm is at the cap now.


I believe there was a chart somewhere explaining that and they will need to move one of JP, Foegele, or Barrie to sign Mcleod and be at the floor once Yams signed his deal (if it exceeded 2.5mill)

I feel Foegele or JP are the likely candidates
Aug. 3, 2022 at 8:28 p.m.
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Quoting: aadoyle
I believe there was a chart somewhere explaining that and they will need to move one of JP, Foegele, or Barrie to sign Mcleod and be at the floor once Yams signed his deal (if it exceeded 2.5mill)

I feel Foegele or JP are the likely candidates


seems like there is a lot of teams that need to move 1 contract. it's going to be interesting to see how they all do it.
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