my take on why Fitz cannot sign Bratt long-term atm

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: Tintin

Team: 2022-23 New Jersey Devils

Initial Creation Date: Aug. 1, 2022

Published: Aug. 1, 2022

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Devils are in a weird position were they don't have an excess of cap space.
With Bratt, Wood and Zetterlund yet to sign, it's gonna be pretty tight.

I currently view it as the Devils having signed 11F (McLeod included, for now), 7D and 3GK (the third GK being Bernier) accounting for a cap hit of 73.75m (dead cap included).
Then, allowing for the assumption of signing Wood (2.975m) and Zetterlund (900k) brings the cap hit to 77.63m.
If Bratt comes in at anywhere above 4.85m, the Devils will be over the 82.5m limit, provided that Bernier spends no time on LTIR and aiming at a 21 man roster.

Now, Bernier will most likely spend a significant portion of this season on LTIR, but if he's cleared in Nov / Dec with Bratt signed at 5m+, the Devils are gonna be forced to make a bad trade for cap relief.
Given how little Patches and Björkstrand returned, I shudder at the thought of how trading Johnsson or Tatar will go down for the Devils in season.

Anyway, this may partially explain why Bratt isn't extended long term already.
There is no doubt in my mind that signing Bratt to as big a contract as an 8x8 today, would be a major steal.

A lot of us Devils fans (and others in the community) have been going with the assumption that Bernier's 4.125m cap hit will be a non factor throughout the season.
This recent arbitration info suggests otherwise, to me anyway.
Also, Kuokkanen's buyout makes a lot more sense from this pov as well (pls come back Janne I miss you )': )

Thank you for attending my TedTalk

Free Agent Signings

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Thompson, Tyce	1	$825,000
Wood, Miles	2	$2,975,000
Zetterlund, Fabian	1	$900,000
Bratt, Jesper	7	$7,250,000

Buyouts

Cory Schneider: $2,000,000
Janne Kuokkanen: $200,000

Recapture Fees

Ilya Kovalchuk: $250,000

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2023
2024
2025

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
22	$82,500,000	$84,876,625	$0	$400,000	-$2,376,625

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Sharangovich, Yegor $2,000,000$2,000,000 C, LW, RW UFA - 1	Hughes, Jack $8,000,000$8,000,000 C UFA - 8	Mercer, Dawson $894,167$894,167 ($400,000$400K) RW, C RFA - 2
Palat, Ondrej $6,000,000$6,000,000 LW, RW NMC UFA - 5	Hischier, Nico $7,250,000$7,250,000 C UFA - 5	Bratt, Jesper $7,250,000$7,250,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
Johnsson, Andreas $3,400,000$3,400,000 LW, RW M-NTC UFA - 1	Haula, Erik $2,375,000$2,375,000 C, LW UFA - 1	Tatar, Tomas $4,500,000$4,500,000 LW, RW UFA - 1
Zetterlund, Fabian $900,000$900,000 RW RFA - 1		Bastian, Nathan $825,000$825,000 RW UFA - 1
	Boqvist, Jesper $874,125$874,125 C, LW RFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Graves, Ryan $3,166,667$3,166,667 LD UFA - 1	Hamilton, Dougie $9,000,000$9,000,000 RD NMC UFA - 6	Vanecek, Vitek $3,400,000$3,400,000 G UFA - 3
Siegenthaler, Jonas $1,125,000$1,125,000 LD UFA - 1	Marino, John $4,400,000$4,400,000 RD UFA - 5	Blackwood, Mackenzie $2,800,000$2,800,000 G UFA - 1
Smith, Brendan $1,100,000$1,100,000 LD/RD, LW UFA - 2	Severson, Damon $4,166,666$4,166,666 RD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Walsh, Reilly $925,000$925,000 RD RFA - 1	Bernier, Jonathan $4,125,000$4,125,000 G UFA - 1
McLeod, Michael $975,000$975,000 C RFA - 1	Wood, Miles $2,975,000$2,975,000 LW UFA - 1

Taxi Squad
Holtz, Alexander $894,167$894,167 ($0$0$0$0) ($850,000$850K) RW, LW RFA - 3
Thompson, Tyce $825,000$825,000 ($0$0$0$0) RW RFA - 2
Foote, Nolan $863,333$863,333 ($0$0$0$0) LW RFA - 2
Bahl, Kevin $795,000$795,000 ($0$0$0$0) ($82,500$82K) LD RFA - 1
Okhotiuk, Nikita $789,167$789,167 ($0$0$0$0) ($132,500$132K) LD RFA - 2
Nemec, Simon $950,000$950,000 ($0$0$0$0) RD RFA - 4

Aug. 1, 2022 at 3:13 p.m.

GMBL

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 8,566

Likes: 3,319

Interesting take, I don't think NJ will have to worry much about the return of guys during the season assuming that cap is sufficiently moved around in the offseason and teams accrue space during the season. They might not want to move either just to have depth. Thank you for your talk.

Tintin liked this.

Aug. 1, 2022 at 3:24 p.m.

hero9154

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 1,837

Likes: 908

Well thought out take. My question - is Miles Wood worth $2.975M on the 4th line? Seeing that he is behind Palat, Johnsson and Sharangovich at LW, I would think that money would be better off spent somewhere else (say giving a chunk of it to Bratt).

Tintin and jnowariak liked this.

Aug. 1, 2022 at 3:31 p.m.

Devil

Speak of the Devil

Joined: Nov. 2017

Posts: 23,934

Likes: 26,435

This is how my math is looking

22 man roster (with Zetterlund and Thompson signed 800k, Bernier on IR, and Bratt/Wood unsigned) = 7.2M
A long term extension for Bratt would come close to 7M (lets say 6.9M nice). Sending down Boqvist who Bratt will replace will create 1.15M in cap space.
After not playing last year, Wood's arbitration price will be lower considering his injury concerns. I would guess its around 2M. That fits under the cap with Bernier not being on LTIR

My main theory of the Devils not signing Bratt long term is because he only had one "elite" year. Maybe they give him the $ once he does it again. I wouldn't risk it though.

Tintin, GMBL and villenash liked this.

Aug. 1, 2022 at 3:42 p.m.

pretzelcoatl

n.1 Topias Vilen fan

Joined: Jul. 2021

Posts: 5,909

Likes: 2,572

Quoting: Devil

Respectfully, to you and to OP, this is a load of horse sh*t. I would bet a ton of money that Tom wants him long term and Bratt wants a bridge to earn a big payday. Tom has already said publicly that the point of conflict in the negotiation is the term. Additionally, take this with a grain of salt, I heard that Bratt's camp turned down 8x6.5m.

Aug. 1, 2022 at 3:45 p.m.

GMBL

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 8,566

Likes: 3,319

Quoting: Devil

Yeah, I think its either they want him to do it again before they commit long-term and the reason why it went to arbitration is because they want to stack the team to actually make a run for it, and want space to add one of Kane, Miller, or Toews, maybe Meier.

The other reason would be they want to trade him.

Aug. 1, 2022 at 3:46 p.m.

jnowariak

Joined: Aug. 2020

Posts: 3,892

Likes: 2,794

Quoting: hero9154

Yeah, if Wood on your 3rd line at the price it’s much more palatable. 4th line? Very iffy. 4th line AND keeping you from signing a top 6 winger in his prime? You can’t yeet that guy fast enough.

hero9154 liked this.

Aug. 1, 2022 at 3:51 p.m.

GMBL

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 8,566

Likes: 3,319

Quoting: pretzelcoatl

Yeah, because 6.5x8 is a terrible deal for Bratt if he's putting up 70+ points a year, it's okay for both sides if he's getting something in the 60s. So, if he's a PPG player or more he would be super underpaid. If they pay him 7-8m, and he gets less than 70 pts he would be grossly overpaid. So, pretty much what the OP and Dev said isn't really off base.

Aug. 1, 2022 at 3:53 p.m.

Devil

Speak of the Devil

Joined: Nov. 2017

Posts: 23,934

Likes: 26,435

Quoting: pretzelcoatl

That is another possibility but no one knows for sure right now. All of us are just speculating right now

We know
- Devils offered Bratt a long term extension before the draft and Bratt declined
- The Devils are trying to find a “reasonable middle for both parties.”
- The $4.15 million number is NOT the long-term offer that Fitzgerald teased before the draft.

This could mean
- Bratt wants more money for longer term deal
- Bratt doesn't want long term deal

Tintin liked this.

Aug. 1, 2022 at 4:02 p.m.

Tintin

Thread Starter

do not Devil my ass

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 4,869

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Edited Aug. 1, 2022 at 4:23 p.m.

Quoting: Devil

Quoting: hero9154

Thank you.
The team really missed Wood in the lockerroom and he's one of few forwards that can elevate McLeod's game.
Wood's been amazing for the Devils in a bottom six capacity throughout his tenure here.
Ideally, Bernier's cap would be eliminated entirely. In which case, I'd jump on the opportunity of having Wood at 3-3.5m for one year.
But if I cannot guarantee Bernier is on LTIR for the entire season, I'd prefer to let Wood walk and signing Bratt longterm to 7-8m aav.

hero9154 liked this.

Aug. 1, 2022 at 4:50 p.m.

#10

NHLfan10506

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 39,967

Likes: 18,303

My take —

1. Don’t worry about the cap!! Devils have more flexibility than being considered here. There is a 10% cushion in off-season. We can bury anyone in minors (except Dougie and Palat). We have another buyout period since we have players in arbitration. Options like Johnsson can easily be moved since his salary is so low. And there are a lot of free agents still out there (unlike during season where you not only have to move the cap, but also have to replace

2. Bratt and NJD are debating term (longer at higher rate vs short-term at lower AAV). We have another bite of the apple next summer (but we want to avoid two 1-year deals and seeing in walk in July 2024). My guess is that Bratt is asking for a number between Hischier and Hughes AAV and management wants him under Hischier’s $7.25m.

3. Wood wanted term, even if it’s at lower dollar. Clearly NJD didn’t think he should get longer than a year.

4. There is a pretty high likelihood that there are offers for Graves and Severson in Fitzy’s hooper should be have to make a deal.

Aug. 1, 2022 at 4:52 p.m.

#11

NHLfan10506

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 39,967

Likes: 18,303

Quoting: Tintin

I see two issues here:
1. Boqvist is no longer waiver exempt, will definitely get claimed. Thompson is still exempt however so my baseline is to have him (and Holtz) starting out in the minors.
2. I don't think Wood can be awarded anything lower than 2.975m.

I think it may be too late in the day to have Bratt extended long-term for this season by now anyways.

Thank you.
The team really missed Wood in the lockerroom and he's one of few forwards that can elevate McLeod's game.
Wood's been amazing for the Devils in a bottom six capacity throughout his tenure here.
Ideally, Bernier's cap would be eliminated entirely. In which case, I'd jump on the opportunity of having Wood at 3-3.5m for one year.
But if I cannot guarantee Bernier is on LTIR for the entire season, I'd prefer to let Wood walk and signing Bratt longterm to 7-8m aav.

Wood could still accept a deal below $2.975m, even after the hearing.

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