Leafs already need to move cap out to fit their current roster so targeting Sandin at around 4.2M makes it nearly impossible for TOR to match and still remain under the cap without making significant roster changes (see my Leafs post: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/3560691)
The teams with enough cap space to offersheet him and the proper pick compensation are: ARZ, BUF, ANA, CHI, DET, OTT, and MIN. Of these teams, only ANA, DET, and arguably ARZ and CHI make sense from an age/position standpoint. I think ANA is the best fit, they have a young core in a similar age group (Zegras, Terry, Comtois, Lundestrom, Jones, McTavish, Drysdale, Zellweger, Perreault, Tracey, Helleson, etc) and although they have enough LD on their roster, Fowler is only the real top 4 D currently so Sandin could fit nicely at 2LD. Mahura and Benoit can rotate in and out as the 3LD and 7th D, while Vaakanainen, Juolevi, and White can be sent down
Is Sandin really even that much of an upgrade over Vaak/Benoit/Mahura?
Im not convinced he is
Surely isnt over Vaak, slight upgrade over Benoit, definite upgrade on Mahura but I dont really see the need to add another "Has top 4 upside but is a bottom pairing guy right now" LD, especially with Zellweger and Mintyukov in the pipeline
We are weak at LD right now, but we have some absolute stud LD prospects in the pipeline and Fowler locked up to term, that spot is likely being kept open for a veteran LD cap dump (like Muzzin). If we were to get him, he might not end up being around long term and we would look to trade him out near the end of his deal that we sign with him to make room for Zelwegger or Mintukov.
After we offer sheet Sandin, I seriously doubt Dubas wants anything to do with us, and takes his Kerfoot business elsewhere. Not seeing it as a great idea for Verbeek to throw an elbow, especially when we have multiple big RFAs to resign next year.
Hornqvist deal works for Anaheim.
If we were to go and get Sandin, I would just offer to trade the 2nd to Toronto for his rights and sign him to the 2.6 mil AAV he is rumored to be asking for.
The Ducks should do that, Leafs could use the 34th OA pick
34th pick? ANA was 10th last in the standings last year and would have improved their roster significantly since last season (Klingberg, Strome, Vatrano, Sandin)
Is Sandin really even that much of an upgrade over Vaak/Benoit/Mahura?
Im not convinced he is
Surely isnt over Vaak, slight upgrade over Benoit, definite upgrade on Mahura but I dont really see the need to add another "Has top 4 upside but is a bottom pairing guy right now" LD, especially with Zellweger and Mintyukov in the pipeline
Quoting: CHAR
Literally took the words out of my mouth.
Imo hes a significant upgrade over those guys. Vaak isnt even NHL quality, Mahura is meh, and Benoit is good but worse than Sandin and doesnt have anywhere near the same upside. Zellweger and Mintyukov look great but they are both still 18 years old and are probably 3-4 years away from being legit top 4 guys. Sandin is 22 and has put up elite numbers in a 3rd pair role and is primed to break out if given more opportunity
Imo hes a significant upgrade over those guys. Vaak isnt even NHL quality, Mahura is meh, and Benoit is good but worse than Sandin and doesnt have anywhere near the same upside. Zellweger and Mintyukov look great but they are both still 18 years old and are probably 3-4 years away from being legit top 4 guys. Sandin is 22 and has put up elite numbers in a 3rd pair role and is primed to break out if given more opportunity
Statistically:
Vaak really hasnt had a sample size where any of those stats are relevant imo
Traded to a completely new system (that is terrible) and coming off an injury as well
Sandin has posted good numbers in a sheltered role on a top 5 team in the league
Im not betting on Sandin to be better than any of the three Ducks long term
He hasnt proven anything, Put him on the Ducks and best case he does what Benoit has, worst case hes a Jacob Larsson
Toronto will table an offer sheet to Drysdale if you do this.
With what cap space? ANA has tons of flexibility with Klingberg, Shattenkirk, Moore, and Perry's money coming off the books next year. Assuming they move Kerfoot to get under the cap this season the only somewhat sizeable contracts coming off the books are Holl, Kampf, and Engvall. Even if all of those guys are replaced by 750k contracts the Leafs dont have nearly enough space to offersheet Drysdale and get away with it. Maybe move Muzzin? But still the Ducks could easily match whatever you offer him
Imo hes a significant upgrade over those guys. Vaak isnt even NHL quality, Mahura is meh, and Benoit is good but worse than Sandin and doesnt have anywhere near the same upside. Zellweger and Mintyukov look great but they are both still 18 years old and are probably 3-4 years away from being legit top 4 guys. Sandin is 22 and has put up elite numbers in a 3rd pair role and is primed to break out if given more opportunity
Statistically:
Being a Leaf fan I am a fan of Sandin, using Natural Stat Trick, when Sandin was on the ice in 2021-22 (5 on 5), the Maple Leafs had a Corsi For % of 54.69, owned the majority of shots at 52.93%, with a Goals For % of 55.07%. the third pairing usually faces the weaker forward groups that the opposition throws at them.
But when he got elevated into the top 4 when Muzzin went down, he got worked. For me, his lack of straight end speed will always be a huge concern, especially when trying to defend the blueline. He can get beaten to the outside too often. I love his ceiling but there is some concern for me how effective he could be in a top 4 role.
I obviously want to see if that can happen in a Leafs uni
Being a Leaf fan I am a fan of Sandin, using Natural Stat Trick, when Sandin was on the ice in 2021-22 (5 on 5), the Maple Leafs had a Corsi For % of 54.69, owned the majority of shots at 52.93%, with a Goals For % of 55.07%. the third pairing usually faces the weaker forward groups that the opposition throws at them.
But when he got elevated into the top 4 when Muzzin went down, he got worked. For me, his lack of straight end speed will always be a huge concern, especially when trying to defend the blueline. He can get beaten to the outside too often. I love his ceiling but there is some concern for me how effective he could be in a top 4 role.
I obviously want to see if that can happen in a Leafs uni
We appreciate the unbiased insight from a guy who has gotten to watch him play.
We have more than enough cap space to match anything TOR could try and do
Enjoy paying 4-6 million for Drysdale.
Quoting: UpsideDownQue
With what cap space? ANA has tons of flexibility with Klingberg, Shattenkirk, Moore, and Perry's money coming off the books next year. Assuming they move Kerfoot to get under the cap this season the only somewhat sizeable contracts coming off the books are Holl, Kampf, and Engvall. Even if all of those guys are replaced by 750k contracts the Leafs dont have nearly enough space to offersheet Drysdale and get away with it. Maybe move Muzzin? But still the Ducks could easily match whatever you offer him
You don't need cap space to offer sheet a player. You just need the picks.
Quoting: Jah1722
Why Drysdale and not Zegras?
Drysdale is from Toronto and would be more open to tendering an offer sheet with Toronto.
We appreciate the unbiased insight from a guy who has gotten to watch him play.
Np, at the end of the day he is going to be an effective NHL pro. He is excellent at moving the puck and making good reads on his outlet passes. Both very vialuable traits for a dman. Right now, I don't foresee if he will provide the offence that Morgan Rielly does, but both are very similar in their play styles. It's just that Sandin has been given no opportunity yet with limited PP time or zone time. And the one thing I love about Sandin is he is a sneaky good hitter.
I get why he is holding out, IMO it's not money but ice time and role
You don't need cap space to offer sheet a player. You just need the picks.
Drysdale is from Toronto and would be more open to tendering an offer sheet with Toronto.
Like @salzy said you dont have the picks for a 1st + 3rd compensation offersheet and ANA can easily fit a contract for under 4.2M for Drysdale if needed. ANA will have enough to offer him market value anyway, its not like they will be up against the cap trying to lowball him
Also, although it's fun to discuss offer sheets, since 2010 there have been only five offer sheets, with only one not being matched (CAR). If there was one team I could possilly see doing it was NYI. Now that they have European scout Jim Paliafito, who was hired by Lamoriello this past summer, played an integral role in the scouting of Sandin. But we are also talking about old school Lou here, so chances are slim
Being a Leaf fan I am a fan of Sandin, using Natural Stat Trick, when Sandin was on the ice in 2021-22 (5 on 5), the Maple Leafs had a Corsi For % of 54.69, owned the majority of shots at 52.93%, with a Goals For % of 55.07%. the third pairing usually faces the weaker forward groups that the opposition throws at them.
But when he got elevated into the top 4 when Muzzin went down, he got worked. For me, his lack of straight end speed will always be a huge concern, especially when trying to defend the blueline. He can get beaten to the outside too often. I love his ceiling but there is some concern for me how effective he could be in a top 4 role.
I obviously want to see if that can happen in a Leafs uni
Fair enough, I havent watched enough TOR games to make an opinion like that about him, but based on moneypuck line combos it doesnt look like he was given that much time in a larger role. Maybe in a larger sample size we will see his play translate better?
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