Tavares came for the money. The idea of a team friendly deal was never an option

Mac was a 50 point player when he signed that deal and the cap was significantly lower then. The problem with the AM34 deal was not the cap hit, it was the term being too short. That's the kind of cap hit you get for a full 8 years. Marner was definitely a bit high though. Probably could have gotten him done for 1.5-2M less, but definitely not more than that. Tavares was never signing anywhere remotely near that cheap

Oh.. John told you that did he? Didn’t know you guys were so close.

Tough to say. I could see him leaning in the direction of being a Leaf whether money was on the table or not. But being the captain of NYI , also holding a big piece of him and restraining him. Then Dubas being the GM ultimately getting caught up in the wheeling and dealing game, wanting to make the deal happen so bad that he threw in a couple too many million and John just couldn’t turn that down.


You also have to remember. If he took 8M in Dallas or Florida he’d gross more then he would making 11M in Canada.

I agree with all you said except that last part. If JT signed in any state with a no state tax he WOULD have taken that much with term.

It’s pretty obvious he knew the Leafs wanted him after missing out on Stamkos. He could have took less but ultimately the Leafs threw more money at him. I doubt you or I would turn down the extra couple million either

If this had happened the oilers would have needed a new development system

A 7 year term for Matthews could have brought the cap hit down under 10. The same is true for Marner. It was just bad cap management

You realize Tavares turned down 13m x 7 to take 11m with the Leafs right? Marners at 9.5m should have been the move. Matthews at 11m.

A 7 year deal on Matthews was certainly not bringing the cap below 10M. Not with the Eichel deal signed 1 year before. Marner should have gotten roughly the same amount as Rantanen

Matthews’ deal was fine AAV, it just wasn’t long enough.

Tavares was a UFA. The idea of getting a UFA is paying them more money than you usually would because you are getting them for free asset wise. Tavares turned down a 13 mil offer from the sharks, so we can’t call his contract an overpay when he signed it.

Marner, when he signed it, it was on overpay. Now? I’m perfectly fine with it.

Ps. Mack didn’t break out until after he signed his deal. If anything Colorado overpaid him, knowing he had a lot of potential to break out and he did.

People, including Mackinnon himself, think he took a discount but he was over valuing himself, he wanted 1C type money like O'Reilly and Stamkos but didn't have the stats to back it up, and like you said people ignore the % of cap he was taking at the time (which for people who don't know if you look at the player's contract's it's mentioned there). Now I do realize that all 3 of the Toronto guys got a higher % of the cap than those 1Cs but the market for players had changed (which is why the young guys got paid without having max term) and Dubas' model was based on paying stars more and role players less, which isn't a problem until there's a flat cap.

Tavares took a discount, by passing on greater offers and didn't really take much of a UFA premium either, considering that Panarin as a winger got paid more than him, and Bobrovsky's AAV is just 500k lower than his.

All your points are spot on, I would say that Tavares isn't even overpaid now by more than 1m considering that he's still a top C, and Huberdeau's contract.

Leafs' fans should just hope that they can retain those guys and win at some point (the sooner the better of course). I do wonder if Marner will want a huge raise like Matthews will. What will Nylander's next contract be like, he's been steps behind the other two ever since sitting out, but if he catches up by the time he's in his contract year, they might have 3 10m+ forwards again or pose one of them to FA. The ideal situation is that the current $ amount of the cap allocated to the 4 just gets reshuffled between whoever is in the next big 4 I guess, and by the time Tavares and Marner's new contracts kick in if they are still there the cap should start going up.

Any team signing him would have paid at least 10m+, and mostly likely above 11m. Bobrovsky got 10.5m the following year in a low tax state, and Panarin got a 11.6m in a high tax state. Tavares plays a premium position.

If you're giving murray back at least give us the picks back too, smh

They would have had to make him the highest paid player without him even being the best player or best goal scorer, or best anything in the game at the time. Of course he was one of the best goal scorers but being top 5 or even top 3 isn't sufficient.

Matthews obviously wanted to have the choice of where he plays and how much he gets paid. He might choose to extend next year but I wouldn't be surprised if he did and only signed a 5 year contract for 13m or 15mx7 or 8.

To much butterfly effect makes all of this nonsensical.

Having no state income tax doesn't make up a 3 million dollar change. Yes it is a factor but people don't realize it's not near as high as what you think.

Tkachuk is only making $650k more per year on his 9.5 million in Florida compared to Calgary. So consider that the canadian premium and Tavares would still need 10-10.5 million from no state tax teams

Ya, the biggest concern is hoping that they can resign these guys. Because unless they win a round this coming year, I can’t see Matthews wanting to commit long term. Who knows though, I hope I’m wrong.