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Future CHL Busts VS Future CHL Stars

Created by: Cardiac
Team: 2022-23 Custom Team
Initial Creation Date: Aug. 7, 2022
Published: Aug. 8, 2022
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These are who I believe will wind up as NHL stars vs NHL busts coming out of the CHL. There is one common thing with top prospects coming out of the CHL that wind up being NHL stars is that they’re far and away the best player on their team, either in their draft year, D+1 year, or D+2 year. It can be seen across all 3 CHL leagues as well. Below are the best CHL players in PPG from the years 2009-2019. It will read player name- year relative to draft- points per game- next closest teammate in points per game- difference in PPG- players NHL role and career totals

2008
WHL
Brett Sonne- D+2 year- 1.61 PPG- next closest was 1.5 PPG- .11 difference, currently retired, never played an NHL game

OHL
John Tavares- Draft year- 1.69 PPG and 2.08 PPG- played on two teams in his draft year, in Oshawa his next highest scoring teammate put up 1.17 PPG. In London his next highest scoring teammate put up 1.39 PPG- .52 difference in Oshawa and .69 difference in London- NHL star, 895 points in 949 games

QMJHL
Yannick riendeau- D+3 year- 1.97 PPG- next closest was 1.62- .35 PPG difference- Career AHLer, Never played an NHL
Riendeau is an outlier but this is because he was more mature than the entire league. The D+2 year he had 1.1 PPG so much worse stats and it was a one off year for riendeau

2009

WHL
Jordan eberle- D+1 year- 1.86 PPG- next closest was 1.42 PPG- .44 PPG difference- NHL top 6 forward, 595 points in 858 games

OHL
Taylor Hall- Draft year- 1.86 PPG- next closest was 1.43- .43 difference- has had fluctuated through his career, I would say he is a star however, 657 point in 761 games

QMJHL
Luke Adam- D+2 year- 1.61 PPG- next closest was 1.05- .55 PPG difference- Currently in the DEL, 26 points in 90 NHL games
By far the largest outlier here, I can’t find anything for why adam preformed so poorly in the NHL. I assume injuries or mental health had something to do with it as he constantly regressed after his D+4 year. Hard to say anything other than he was a bust at the NHL level.

2010

WHL
Brayden Schenn- D+2 year- 1.96 PPG- next closest was 1.4 PPG- .56 difference- NHL top 6 forward, 524 points in 776 NHL games

OHL
Ryan Ellis- D+2 year- 1.74 PPG- next closest was 1.38- .36 difference- top 4 D man, 275 points in 566 games. Obviously the scoring wouldn’t have translated to the NHL but it is interesting to see how good of an offensive D man he was at the junior level.

QMJHL
Philip-Micheal Devos- D+3 year- 1.67 PPG- next closest was 1.52- .15 PPG difference- never played an NHL game, currently in the NLA

2011

WHL
Sven bärtschi- D+1 year- 2 PPG- next closest was 1.75 PPG- .25 PPG difference- fringe NHLer, 138 points in 292 NHL games

OHL
Brandon Saad- D+1 year- 1.73 PPG- next closest was 1.43 PPG- .3 difference- Saad has been a solid middle 6 option, 420 points in 710 NHL games

QMJHL
Jonathan Huberdeau- D+1 year- 1.95 PPG- next closest was 1.65- .3 PPG difference- NHL star, 613 points in 671 games, coming off of a 115 point season
Is so close because for half the season, a D+2 year Carlie Coyle played in the Q, the closest other than coyle put up 1.41 PPG or a .54 difference.

2012

WHL
Ty Rattie- D+1 year- 1.774 PPG- next closest was 1.765- .009 PPG difference- Not even an NHLer, 30 points in 99 NHL games, currently playing in Europe

OHL
Alex Galchenyuk- D+1 year- 1.85 PPG- next closest was 1.59- .26 difference- up and down career, has a 30 goal season once but his career stats are evidence that he is an offensive bottom 6 player- 354 points in 643 games.

QMJHL
Jonathan Drouin- Draft year- 2.14 PPG- next closest was 1.71- .43 difference- solid NHLer, 252 points in 427 games
Sort of an outlier, he played with mackinnon but was on the score sheet a lot more, eye test from this season shows why mackinnon was the number one pick. I see this as similar to Dylan strome where they would have never been close to the top of they weren’t playing with some of the best NHL players at the moment.

2013

WHL
Nic Petan- D+1 year- 1.79 PPG- next closest was 1.58- .21 PPG difference- fringe NHLer, 30 points in 154 games

OHL
Connor Brown- D+2 year- 1.88 PPG- next closest was 1.77- .11 PPG difference- Solid middle 6 player, I don’t think he would have been near the top this year if he wasn’t playing with Mcdavid. The prior season he was barely over PPG playing with a 15 year old Mcdavid. That being said, he has developed a strong NHL resume with 216 points in 444 games

QMJHL
Jonathan Drouin- D+1 year- 2.35 PPG- next closest was 1.67- .68 PPG difference- solid NHLer, 252 points in 427 games
Nothing really to say other than drouin just never lived up to the hype. He still has all the skill in the world, he just hasn’t put it together at the NHL level. Injuries have definitely been a part of it but I still think he could play well. He could breakout in the right situation but as of now, he hasn’t lived up to the potential

2014

WHL
Oliver Bjorkstrand- 2 PPG- next closest was 1.65 PPG- .35 PPG difference- top 6 forward, 234 points in 382 NHL games

OHL
Connor Mcdavid- Draft year- 2.55 PPG- next closest was 1.9- .65 PPG difference- best player in the NHL, 697 points in 487 games

QMJHL
Nikolaj Ehlers- D+1 year- 1.98 PPG- next closest was 1.47- .51 PPG difference- Top 6 forward, 358 points in 478 games, has consistently improved throughout his career so far

2015

WHL
Brayden Point- D+2 year- 1.83 PPG- next closest was 1.61- .22 difference- NHL star, 368 points in 417 games
Point seems like an outlier here, however there is a reason for him being one. The teammate that was so close to him was Dryden hunt. 60 of Hunts 116 points came when point was involved with the scoring. Of those 60, 51 of those, point was a primary contributor to those goals. That means 85% of hunts points with point, point was a key factor in. If you factor in hunts total points in the 48 games with point, he actually produced at the same rate. Away from point, hunt produced 28 points in 24 games or a 1.17 PPG. In points D+1 year, before hunt was on points team, point produced 1.45 PPG. This is evidence that point elevated hunts game immensely and although points numbers jumped by .4 points playing with hunt, I don’t doubt that jump would have happened without hunt. In the year previous, without point, hunt produced at a 1.05 PPG pace. While the gap between 1 and 2 with point and Dryden hunt is close, it’s easily negated by the fact that point made hunt a better player and helped hunt have the best season of his career. Only truly elite players are able to do that and point is one of the most elite players in the NHL.

OHL
Christian Dvorak- D+2 year- 2.051 PPG- next closest was 2.035- .016 PPG difference- 3rd line forward in the NHL, 179 points in 358 NHL games
This was a product of playing with marner and tkachuk, dvorak is a solid NHLer but I believe the stats were skewed by playing with marner and tkachuk on his wing, if he were to to have played without either, he wouldn’t have been the OHL leader, he is one of the outliers in these models, like point was.

QMJHL
Conor Garland- D+2 year- 2.06 PPG- next closest was 1.18- .88 PPG difference- solid top 6 forward, 148 points in 241 games, late bloomer but has developed into a solid 2nd liner as is.

2016

WHL
Sam Steel- D+1 year- 1.985 PPG- next closest was 1.97- .15 difference- Bottom 6 forward, 65 points in 197 games

OHL
Dylan Strome- D+2 year- 2.14 PPG- next closest was 2.01 PPG- .13 difference- still coming into his own as an NHL player, 170 points in 273 games
Strome seems like he is a good player but played his entire OHL career with top talent, he played with Mcdavid from 2013-2014 and with debrincat from 2015-2016. He is a good player but definitely another outlier based on how well he he has done in the NHL. Playing with top guys like that, the numbers will obviously be inflated.

QMJHL
Daniel Sprong- D+2 year- 1.9 PPG- next closest was 1.6- .3 PPG difference- bottom 6 NHLer, 70 points in 202 games

2017
WHL
Aleksi Hemponiemi- D+1 year- 2.07 PPG- next closest was 1.87- .2 difference- AHL top liner/13 FWD, 2 points in 15 NHL games

OHL
Jordan Kyrou- D+2 year- 1.95 PPG- next closest was 1.14- .81 PPG difference- kyrou is still coming into his own, he just scored over PPG and I expect him to only get better, 122 points in 173 NHL games

QMJHL
Vitaly Abramov- D+2 year- 1.86 PPG- next closest was 1.57- .29 PPG difference- never translated to the NHL, 5 total games, currently plays in the KHL

2018

WHL
Cody Glass- D+2 year- 1.82 PPG- next closest was 1.68- .14 difference- bottom 6 NHLer, 23 points in 78 games

OHL
Jason Robertson- D+2 year- 1.58 PPG- next closest was 1.23- .35 PPG difference- Elite NHLer, 125 points in 127 NHL games

QMJHL
Max Comtois- D+2 year- 1.92 PPG- next closest was 1.76- .16 PPG difference- hard to tell what he will be right now, he has had ups and downs with 33 points in 55 games 2 seasons ago but this past season he had 16 in 52. He could be something in the NHL but as of now it’s not looking too good, 67 points in 146 games
————————————————————————————
SO! It’s not an exact science obviously but it is a good way of predicting how well a prospect could translate to the NHL. The QMJHL shows the least predictability with players like Drouin and Adam preforming well compared to their teammates, but not completely translating to the NHL well.
Through these years, you can see patterns with the PPG difference and how the player translates to the NHL

WHL:
8/11 were under .3 PPG higher than their next best teammate. 7/8 wound up as busts
2/11 were between .3 and .5 PPG higher than their next best teammate. Both are solid NHLers
1/11 was over .5 higher than the next best teammate. He is a good NHLer

OHL:
4/11 were under .3 PPG better than the next best teammate. Two are busts and two are solid NHL players. Those two played with future NHL stars and happened to be older therefore more developed.
4/11 were between .3 and .5 PPG better than their next best teammate. Two are solid NHLers and two are stars.
3/11 were over .5 PPG better than their next best teammate. All are stars in their own right with mcdavid being the best of the best.

QMJHL-
3/10 were under .3 PPG better than their next best teammate. Of those 2 are busts and one is still up in the air.
3/10 were between .3 and .5 PPG higher than their next best teammate. There were two busts and one success, the one success was in their D+1 year.
4/10 were over .5 PPG higher than their next best teammate. One is a bust, one is a disappointment, and two are successes

The best players here all put up their numbers in their draft year and the worst put their numbers up in their D+3 year. The younger players are, the better they could translate. The best CHL league as of now for producing NHL talent is the OHL and the worst is the QMJHL. I am not saying the Q doesn’t produce top end NHL talent but rather it is just the weakest of all of the leagues from what the numbers say.

Now with all of this information, it makes it easier to predict how good an NHL prospect will be based on their CHL numbers. Here are 10 players who I believe will be busts and 10 who I believe will be stars.

STARS:
Wyatt Johnston- OHL- D+1 year- 1.82 PPG- .46 PPG higher than next best teammate
Mavrik Bourque- QMJHL- D+2 year- 2.19 PPG- .45 PPG higher than next best teammate
Logan Stankoven- WHL- D+1 year- 1.76 PPG- .21 PPG higher than next best teammate (while the numbers may not look so good, this is similar to the Tavares situation. The 2nd best point producer was traded to Kamloops halfway through the season and saw a rise in production with stankoven going from 1.07 PPG without stank to 1.55 PPG with him. The next closest to stankoven who played the entire season with Kamloops put up under a PPG. Compared to that player, stankoven was .8 PPG better. Stankoven was 44 points over his next best scoring teammate so he was far and away Kamloops best player)
Luke Evangelista- OHL- D+2 year- 1.79 PPG- .39 PPG higher than next best teammate
Shane Wright- OHL- Draft year- 1.49 PPG- .17 PPG less than best teammate. (I know he isn’t the best on his team but neither was mackinnon. Wright is known for his defensive game and given that he basically missed an entire year of competition. This hindered his D-1 development but even at that, he still preformed this good as a draft eligible. He is sound defensively which is a big reason why I don’t think he will be a bust given the circumstances)
Brennan Othmann- OHL- D+1 year- 1.47 PPG- .49 PPG higher than next best teammate.
Ridly Grieg- WHL- D+2 year- 1.61 PPG- .46 PPG higher than next best teammate
Fabian Lysell- WHL- D+1 year- 1.17 PPG- .46 PPG better than next best teammate
Matthew Savoie- WHL- Draft year- 1.38 PPG- .08 better than next best player- (similar to Wright, his numbers aren’t great compared to teammates. Why I have him as a future star is because I believe wholeheartedly that he makes players around him better. The Winnipeg Ice have 6 players over PPG but savoie is the best out of all of these players at the moment. I believe the player that will eventually be the best is 2023 prospect Zach benson who also holds a skill savoie has; to make others better. As the current leader of such a great team, I think he will be a star despite the slightly better production compared to teammates rather than eye popping numbers)
Jagger Firkus- WHL- Draft year- 1.21 PPG- .05 PPG higher than next best, (because he did this in his draft year similar to Wright and savoie, the lack of gap is fine because other good players who lead their team in PPG as a draft eligibile, wound up leading their team in their D+1 years or D+2 years by a lot)

BUSTS:
Josh Roy- D+1 year- QMJHL- 1.8 PPG- .17 PPG higher than the next best player.
Xavier Bourgault- D+1 year- QMJHL- 1.74 PPG- .45 PPG less than best teammate- Gets carried by bourque.
Zachary Bolduc- QMJHL- D+1 year- 1.523 PPG- .023 PPG higher than next best teammate
Riley Kidney- QMJHL- D+1 year- 1.52 PPG- .09 PPG higher than next best teammate.
Dylan Guenther- WHL- D+1 year- 1.54 PPG- .04 PPG higher than next best teammate
Jake Neighbours- WHL- D+2 year- 1.5 PPG- .04 PPG less than best producer
Mason McTavish- OHL- D+1 year- 1.66 PPG- tied for team lead in PPG- (based solely on OHL production, mctavish is looking like an underwhelming pick at 3. He was struggling with injuries but even with that, I would have expected his comeback to be a little better
Connor Geekie- WHL- Draft year- 1.11 PPG- 4th best player on his team, .27 behind best player on his team
Francesco Pinelli- OHL- D+1 year- 1.09 PPG- 2nd on team .02 PPG less than the best
Hendrix Lapierre- QMJHL- D+2 year- 1.27 PPG- 4th on team, .24 less than leader

WILD CARD:
Jordan Dumais- QMJHL- Draft year- 1.6 PPG- .16 PPG higher than next best teammate ( I have him as a success because an example of NHL players who preformed similarly with Halifax was nico hischier in 2016. Hischier was .23 PPG better than his next best teammate but the difference here is that he was .5 better than his third best teammate. The most recent Halifax team had 5 players who would be in hischiers top 3. I believe if dumais develops his game, he could be a good player who could post 60 points)
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Aug. 8, 2022 at 12:15 p.m.
#1
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"mctavish is looking like an underwhelming pick at 3. He was struggling with injuries but even with that, I would have expected his comeback to be a little better"

That could not be farther from the truth, Ducks take McTavish at 3 100% of the time in a re-draft

Out of all the prospects listed hes the most sure thing here
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Aug. 8, 2022 at 12:16 p.m.
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Quality post

Bourgault may have a better chance if hes slapped on the wing with a good playmaking center like McDavid, Drai or Clouder
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Aug. 8, 2022 at 12:27 p.m.
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I don’t think McTavish, Guenther, or Geekie should be on the busts side, and while it’s possible that happens, I find it quite unlikely.
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Aug. 8, 2022 at 12:29 p.m.
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A for effort - worth commenting just to say thanks for putting in the work
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Aug. 8, 2022 at 12:29 p.m.
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Quoting: noobmaster69
A for effort - worth commenting just to say thanks for putting in the work


You do the top prospect from every team per league post too?
Aug. 8, 2022 at 12:31 p.m.
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Quoting: noobmaster69
You do the top prospect from every team per league post too?


Indeed👍
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Aug. 8, 2022 at 12:31 p.m.
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I think Lapierre won’t be a future superstar but a more of a prime Ryan Smyth player
Aug. 8, 2022 at 12:32 p.m.
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Quoting: Cardiac
Indeed👍


Good stuff I enjoyed that one even if I forgot to comment
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Aug. 8, 2022 at 12:41 p.m.
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Quoting: Salzy
"mctavish is looking like an underwhelming pick at 3. He was struggling with injuries but even with that, I would have expected his comeback to be a little better"

That could not be farther from the truth, Ducks take McTavish at 3 100% of the time in a re-draft

Out of all the prospects listed hes the most sure thing here


I would put him as the 8th or 9th best prospect in that draft so far. Hughes Johnson edvinsson eklund Clarke wallstedt Johnston and lysell I would all rank higher and that being said, it’s not a knock on mctavish but rather I just don’t think he is as good as his peers. Imo watching mctavish, I like him don’t get me wrong, but based on the stats, he was rather underperforming. On top of being the most sure thing, I would say the top 3 in the left column are all more sure things than mctavish. It’s my take to have him there and I do acknowledge that he likely won’t be a bust, but rather just not as good as he is made out to be and more of a let down. I have him first in the busts column because I believe he has the best chance of being good and likely has a better chance at the NHL than everybody else there. Draft location doesn’t mean somebody in the best or worst based on where they were picked. Is Laf and kakko were picks one and two in their respective drafts; they aren’t the first and second best players from those drafts. Mctavish is just confusing at the moment with what he will do as a player.
Aug. 8, 2022 at 12:42 p.m.
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Quoting: rext7177
Quality post

Bourgault may have a better chance if hes slapped on the wing with a good playmaking center like McDavid, Drai or Clouder


I agree there but if you slap any of the labeled busts here with mcdavid or drai, they put up a solid 60 points.
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Aug. 8, 2022 at 12:45 p.m.
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Quoting: Cardiac
I would put him as the 8th or 9th best prospect in that draft so far. Hughes Johnson edvinsson eklund Clarke wallstedt Johnston and lysell I would all rank higher and that being said, it’s not a knock on mctavish but rather I just don’t think he is as good as his peers. Imo watching mctavish, I like him don’t get me wrong, but based on the stats, he was rather underperforming. On top of being the most sure thing, I would say the top 3 in the left column are all more sure things than mctavish. It’s my take to have him there and I do acknowledge that he likely won’t be a bust, but rather just not as good as he is made out to be and more of a let down. I have him first in the busts column because I believe he has the best chance of being good and likely has a better chance at the NHL than everybody else there. Draft location doesn’t mean somebody in the best or worst based on where they were picked. Is Laf and kakko were picks one and two in their respective drafts; they aren’t the first and second best players from those drafts. Mctavish is just confusing at the moment with what he will do as a player.


Im a season ticket holder for the Windsor Spitfires, and have been for 10+ years

As great as Johnston is McTavish is a better NHL prospect than him and hes the best of those you listed above McTavish

He has not underperformed in the slightest, points arent everything, especially with prospects.

I never said anything about draft position meaning anything value wise, the day that a prospect plays his first game post-draft is the last day his draft position matters

Take a look at McTavish's playoff+Mem cup runs, that is a difference maker that doesnt have a comparable in the 2021 draft
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Aug. 8, 2022 at 12:51 p.m.
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Quoting: evelutions2
I don’t think McTavish, Guenther, or Geekie should be on the busts side, and while it’s possible that happens, I find it quite unlikely.


Geekie I think has the chance to be the best out of those three. As for guenther and mctavish, they were the highest drafted players I put on the bust side. Based on the numbers and the metrics earlier, they could easily be busts. Galchenyuk and Saad were the closest comprables based on this metric and even at that, they were better compared to their peers. Guenther on the other hand, I believe is benefiting from playing with neighbours and vice versa. If you see here
WHL:
8/11 were under .3 PPG higher than their next best teammate. 7/8 wound up as busts

The WHL players stats I chose here would up being busts a bit of the time. Guenther in his D+1 years next closest comparable here rattie petan and steel. He could break the model of course and I didnt grab 300 players to compare to but rather 32 so it’s not an exact science.
Aug. 8, 2022 at 12:57 p.m.
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Quoting: Salzy
Im a season ticket holder for the Windsor Spitfires, and have been for 10+ years

As great as Johnston is McTavish is a better NHL prospect than him and hes the best of those you listed above McTavish

He has not underperformed in the slightest, points arent everything, especially with prospects.

I never said anything about draft position meaning anything value wise, the day that a prospect plays his first game post-draft is the last day his draft position matters

Take a look at McTavish's playoff+Mem cup runs, that is a difference maker that doesnt have a comparable in the 2021 draft


Johnston is imo the 9th best prospect from that draft. I believe Johnson hughes edvinsson wallstedt eklund and Clarke are all better prospects. The memorial cup run and playoff run were good sure, but I view it similarly to a slafkovsky Olympic run. Sure it was really good but I don’t view their entire stock as a prospect based on that. Again, based on this metric, mctavish would be a bust but I don’t believe he would be a bust at that.
Aug. 8, 2022 at 12:58 p.m.
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Quoting: IconicHawk
I think Lapierre won’t be a future superstar but a more of a prime Ryan Smyth player


I think he is rather mid as a prospect. He has struggled with injuries so I do take it with a grain of salt but even so, other great players who struggled with injury wound up producing better in harder leagues.
Aug. 8, 2022 at 1:09 p.m.
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Quoting: Cardiac
I agree there but if you slap any of the labeled busts here with mcdavid or drai, they put up a solid 60 points.


In the case of McDrai, all they need is a good finisher, someone who can nail their passes, thats good enough for them, Kane is that guy now but if those two are sticking around its good to have a finisher coming up in the Pipeline
Aug. 8, 2022 at 1:17 p.m.
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Quoting: rext7177
In the case of McDrai, all they need is a good finisher, someone who can nail their passes, thats good enough for them, Kane is that guy now but if those two are sticking around its good to have a finisher coming up in the Pipeline


Bourgault can definitely net pucks. His GPG was third in the Q as a D+1 player. He doesn’t really drive play however but if edmonton does give him an opportunity with mcdrai, he would definitely produce. His ceiling imo is a 30 goal scorer 20 assist player and power play specialist.
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Aug. 12, 2022 at 6:52 a.m.
#17
Lenny7
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Joined: Jan. 2017
Posts: 13,291
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Quoting: Salzy
Im a season ticket holder for the Windsor Spitfires, and have been for 10+ years

As great as Johnston is McTavish is a better NHL prospect than him and hes the best of those you listed above McTavish

He has not underperformed in the slightest, points arent everything, especially with prospects.

I never said anything about draft position meaning anything value wise, the day that a prospect plays his first game post-draft is the last day his draft position matters

Take a look at McTavish's playoff+Mem cup runs, that is a difference maker that doesnt have a comparable in the 2021 draft


McTavish must have been following this thread, and is clearly unhappy that @cardiac doesn't like him tears of joy
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Aug. 12, 2022 at 8:21 a.m.
#18
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Joined: Nov. 2018
Posts: 5,135
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Quoting: Lenny7
McTavish must have been following this thread, and is clearly unhappy that cardiac doesn't like him tears of joy


413158d1478500847t-10-3-3-its-here-i-told-you-so-tumblr_o34x9r0lhl1v0lf1io1_500.jpg

Gotta take advantage of times I can use Trailer Park Boys GIFs tears of joy
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Aug. 12, 2022 at 9:53 a.m.
#19
Lenny7
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Joined: Jan. 2017
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Quoting: Salzy
413158d1478500847t-10-3-3-its-here-i-told-you-so-tumblr_o34x9r0lhl1v0lf1io1_500.jpg

Gotta take advantage of times I can use Trailer Park Boys GIFs tears of joy


"a-f*ckin'-a toad-a-so!"
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