Quoting: Tintin
I see two things that are backwards here, imo:
1. Gritsyuk should be the piece off limits and Mukhammadulin the piece closer to available for a trade. Muk was a reach when drafted to begin with and I don't see him having a ceiling higher than any of Bahl, Okhotiuk or Walsh. Which ties into my next point
2. At this point in time, picks should be valued higher than prospects. This is due to currently having too many future NHL regulars to fit into the lineup between now and 2026, particularly at defense.
Between 2023 and 2026, 5/6 places will already be spoken for by Hughes, Nemec, Marino, Hamilton and Siegenthaler.
That leaves only 2 spots (1 for 3rd pair, 1 to be scratched) to all of Okhotiuk, Bahl, Walsh, Mukhammadulin, Casey.
These guys won't be waiver exempt forever and will likely be too good too pass through without getting claimed, so better to try and move them in order to get some value for them, no?
Cus a lot of them will not be playing for the Devils anyway.
On Giving Picks vs Players - I agree that prospect pipeline is getting crowded in some places and I can see the thought of spreading some value out into future years (via picks). But now we have a core group together and have some identifiable holes to fill (ie, heavier skill, goaltending, whatever). Adding young ELC players helps us now and in future years fill in some of those spots. 2023 and 2024 draft picks will arrive too late. (obviously 1st rounder in 2023 would have reasonable protection if we ever dealt it).
Gritsyuk - On the talent alone, he should be included on the list just behind Hughes, Nemec, Holtz. But there is a risk that drags him down a notch. Gritsyuk hasn't fully committed to coming over yet, whereas the others want to be here. Hence, he is not quite as untouchable as the others.
Bahl - Has upside simply based on size and mobility. But while he may have once had middle-pair upside, I am thinking he is now looking like a #6-7 dman. The puck skills still need a lot of work. Passing out of the zone, getting puck on net from point. He is waiver-exempt for another year, so I would expect him to spend most of the year in AHL working on these things.
Okhotiuk - Maybe lowest upside of the bunch, but is likely closer to NHL minutes than Bahl. He is likely a bottom-pair physical, stay-at-home dman. Fitzgerald has praised the simplicity of his game and will probably compete with Smith in pre-season for 3LD.
Walsh - My bet to start year as 3LD (even though he is a righty). He has played left side at times in both AHL and NCAA (where he paired with Marino). More of offensive, puck-moving dman, but people that worry we have another Will Butcher 2019-20 or Ty Smith 2020-21 shouldn't. He is defensively responsible, a lot more physical than those two, and is excellent in possession. I think he has 2nd pair upside. I also think they may give him minutes just to put him on display as trade bait for 2023 off-season.
Mukhamadullin - He unquestionably has higher ceiling than Bahl, Okhotiuk, and Walsh. Muk is a project, but has all the tools (size, shot, skating etc) to be a top-pair player. He is a little unorthodox in his approach at time. He is a lefty who plays right-side. He is at times very aggressive with his long reach. He pinches into dangerous areas, like from right point towards left corner. He is often unpredictable with off-the-puck movement (joins rush sometimes when he shouldn't, jumps back on defense on times he should). To detractors, it is a undisciplined mess. To supporters, it is part of his genius. He set numerous records as teenager in KHL, for ice-time, points. His usage on Russian teams alone should give confidence in his future. And as he started his draft year at a wiry 6'2" 169 lbs, he ended last season listed at 6'4" 194 lbs. The reviews from North American scouting have been very good. A few examples...Steve Kourianos has said he looks like a "true number one". Mitch Brown said his "NHL upside is more evident than ever before". Craig Button has said, ""He’ll be a really solid NHL defenseman". Scott Wheeler, "Mukhamadullin’s upside is fascinating". All within last year or so. Also, it sounds as if Fitzy loves the guy, so I imagine he will get his chances.
My best guess of def depth charts in next few years
2022-23
Siegenthaler -- Severson
Graves -- Hamilton
Smith/Walsh -- Marino
ex: Okhotiuk
Nemec plays 9 or fewer games in 2022-23
Bahl plays most of year in AHL
Hughes, Mukhamadullin arrive April 2023
McCarthy arrives AHL April 2023
2023-24
Siegenthaler -- Hamilton
Hughes -- Marino
Okhotiuk/Bahl -- Nemec/Walsh/Mukhamadullin
ex: Smith
Mukhamadullin starts in AHL
Misyul maybe to AHL in Sep 2023
Edwards, Casey arrive as early as April 2024
2024-25
Siegenthaler -- Hamilton
Hughes -- Nemec
Okhotiuk/Bahl -- Mukhamadullin
ex: Walsh, Casey, Vuko
Edwards and Casey full year in AHL
Vilen arrives as early as April 2025 (likely Sep 2025)
Leddy arrives AHL Spring 2025
2025-26
Hughes -- Nemec
Siegenthaler -- Hamilton
Vilen -- Mukhamadullin
ex: Edwards, Casey
(just too far ahead to project)