Quoting: kster34
Why would you say the “if the leafs miss the playoffs”? We finished 1 point behind you in a tougher division. Are the canes going to miss the playoffs - come on, that just makes no sense.
Leaf problems are not due to D; they ‘ve lost some really close series (& had their share of bad luck, which happens) to teams that ended up going to the finals. And they played Tampa much tougher than the team that beat you out.
We have yet to find a goalie (incl Freddy) that can make the big save, or yet to find a 3rd liner that can pop in a big goal. Hopefully this year 🤞 but no major overhaul needdd.
Leafs don’t need to trade anyone on d unless it’s for cap reasons, which this isn’t.
731 vs 718 total points. The Atlantic had an argument for being stronger last year but the metro was more balanced therefore making it stronger. 6/8 teams were over 80 points vs 4 for the Atlantic. Not to mention both divisions had 4 teams over 100 points making them clearly the strongest two divisions. If you ask which division was more top heavy, yes it’s the Atlantic. If you ask which was harder, it’s clearly the metro. Sure the Atlantics top 4 is better than the metros but the bottom 4 which imo determines how hard a division is, it is the met all day.
Anyways onto the point the where the leafs may miss the playoffs. It is very possible for the leafs to miss the playoffs. If you put all of your eggs into one basket and you drop that basket, you have no eggs. Think of that in terms of the leafs top 4 forwards plus Reilly. If one of Matthew’s or marner gets injured for a substantial amount of time, the leafs playoff odds are in jeopardy. If 2 of the other 3 get injured, playoffs would be a target, not an expectation. Not to mention how the leafs got worse this off-season and how every other team in the division other than the Florida teams got better or stayed the same.
BOS- they got krejci and Zacha and lost only haula. Better.
BUF- lost miller and pysyk but they have key graduations in 3 top 30 propsects in quinn peterka and power. Better.
DET- do I even need to get into this? Better.
OTT- again, do I need to explain? Better.
Habs- non factor but got a little better I would hope being that bad last year. Same or better.
Now for the Florida teams it’s Tampa and Florida who between the two were Stanley cup finalists and presidents trophy winners. Florida obviously lost the most so they won’t be as good but Tampa I think could be similar to last year as they have only two real subtractions in mcdougnah and palat.
Now the leafs? Lost campbell kase and soup man. Added? Jarnkrok Murray and samsonov? That goal tending tandem is atrocious. Samsonov I like but in no world should he be paired with murray for a tandem. That in my opinion is a bottom 5 tandem in the league.
So how do I think the leafs miss the playoffs? The goaltending performs as expected, a key injury to a top player, and the division getting all around better. It will be harder for the leafs to win games with this tandem and a much stronger division. Plus the metro being much more balanced? If the leafs finish 4th, they have a chance of missing the playoffs. The metro is likely going to have both the canes and the rangers in the top 2, and then could have any of the teams not from Philadelphia make the playoffs realistically. The metro is getting better as well. Young talent coming up and top players signing in free agency (Yes I am assuming kadri to NYI but that is all but announced right now). There is a world where the leafs put up 100 points even and lose out to 8 other teams.
Assuming the leafs goaltending goes as I predict and there is a top player sidelined by injury for 30+ games, these are my standings predictions.
Atlantic:
Y-TBL
X-FLA
X-OTT
X-DET
TOR
BOS
BUF
MTL
Metro:
Z-CAR
X-NYR
X-NYI
X-PIT
WSH
NJD
CBJ
PHI
Honestly any team who isn’t montreal or philly, I could see making the playoffs. CBJ NJD and BUF are dark horses but if things work out they could make the playoffs. The only true locks for the playoffs at where we are right now are imo Carolina, Tampa, and the rangers. Everybody else I believe could make or miss the playoffs. Not to slight the leafs but I do believe there is a world where the leafs miss the playoffs next year.