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Analytics are ruining your brains

Aug. 15, 2022 at 2:21 p.m.
#26
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NoMoreJustin
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Edited Aug. 15, 2022 at 2:36 p.m.
Quoting: DoctorBreakfast
Hockey analysis has come a long way compared to just 5 years ago. The data is better, more research is done, people are understanding how to contextualize better, and we have more now to consume than ever. If you think about it, the on-ice ideas that are emphasized by those in the analytics sphere are essentially the same as what old heads have been preaching for decades.

Getting pucks on net = increasing your shot attempts
Get to the dangerous areas = improving your shot quality, which ties into expected goals
Net-front battles = prevent the opposition from taking those high xG shots and prevent your goalie from being screened
Creating/preventing odd-man rushes = rush chances are shown to be of higher quality than chances created on the cycle or forecheck
...and so on and so forth.

I guarantee you that 90-95% of the findings from analytics spheres align with the general consensus. The problem most people have are with the edge cases, which they then use to dismiss the entirety of analytics. The on-ice arguements are essentially the same, albeit the wordings differ. Most everyone will agree that today's game is far different than the game from even a decade ago. It's a possession-based game, physicality is emphasized less, etc.

A lot of the polarization comes from how off-ice/locker room effects come into play. It's pretty clear that guys like Ryan Reaves are not valuable to the modern game, in terms of on-ice impact; he plays very limited minutes and the team does not control play when he is on the ice. The arguments for Reaves state that he provides a morale boost to his teammates, he's a locker room guy, etc. The problem with that is how can we even know that's the case when we're not around the team and we don't know what's going on behind the scenes, other than the canned statements we hear in interviews? I'm sure that most, if not all, teams have guys that are good in the room, so as long as there aren't guys that are a detriment to team morale, I don't see the value in having a guy that also plays poorly on the ice.


“I don't see the value in having a guy that also plays poorly on the ice.”

NHL GMs sure do though and that’s been my point over and over again. What a guy like Reaves does better than most of the league is put in a short shift but throw a couple huge hits that get momentum back to his team. He’s made an entire career out of it.
Aug. 15, 2022 at 3:49 p.m.
#27
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Quoting: LloydminsterLarry
“I don't see the value in having a guy that also plays poorly on the ice.”

NHL GMs sure do though and that’s been my point over and over again. What a guy like Reaves does better than most of the league is put in a short shift but throw a couple huge hits that get momentum back to his team. He’s made an entire career out of it.


Like someone mentioned earlier, just because an NHL GM does something doesn't mean it's a good move, as we see time and time again. How do we even know that his hits provided any kind of momentum? He's spent most of his career playing on teams that are good in spite of him, so one could argue that the teams could've succeeded and regained momentum without whatever his contributions were in the 8-9 minutes he plays.
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Aug. 15, 2022 at 4:57 p.m.
#28
torontos finest
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Quoting: DoctorBreakfast
Like someone mentioned earlier, just because an NHL GM does something doesn't mean it's a good move, as we see time and time again. How do we even know that his hits provided any kind of momentum? He's spent most of his career playing on teams that are good in spite of him, so one could argue that the teams could've succeeded and regained momentum without whatever his contributions were in the 8-9 minutes he plays.


Reaves was brought in because Tom Wilson broke that team mentality. Guys like him are becoming a relic of yesteryear, since more and more teams are looking to utilize all 12 forward spots and if your heavy hitters aren't able to score, forecheck, penalty kill or have some qualifiable use, they're not getting jobs.
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Aug. 15, 2022 at 5:25 p.m.
#29
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There isn’t a stat out there that makes Reaves look like a strong contributor to New York’s success this season. The Rangers were outscored 30-16 at even strength with Reaves on the ice, and that minus 14 goal differential was the worst on the team. The NYR forward depth was their glaring weakness for the first three quarters of the season prior to the trade deadline, and getting outscored by nearly a 2:1 ratio whenever Reaves was on the ice was a major part of that issue.

One stat that highlights Reaves’ all-encompassing deficiencies well is the Goals Above Replacement model from Evolving Hockey. GAR (and its W(ins)AR and S(tandings)P(oints)AR conversions) are cumulative stats that incorporate even strength play, special teams play, and penalty impacts. Out of 427 forwards to skate at least 350 minutes this season, Reaves was one of only 11 to be far enough in the red in GAR to account for at least -1 WAR. That comes in spite of basically zero special teams time, which other bad players in his vicinity receive and give them more opportunities to be bad.

Taking out the special teams component of GAR and WAR, only five other players were such drags at even strength to account for -1 WAR. Being the team’s best chirper and releasing them onto the ice for games are nice things to get a chuckle out of once in awhile, but when having that requires icing a player in the conversation for the worst skater in the league, something has to give.

When the playoffs rolled around, Reaves spent even more time watching games from the bench than he usually did. No forward skated less than the 9:25 per game Reaves did in the playoffs. After a particularly rough four games against the Lightning in the Eastern Conference Finals. Reaves spent the final two games of New York’s season in the press box.

Bad
E7gv-a0XEAQZ5bQ?format=jpg&name=medium

Good
Hathaway1.png

Checks out, both eye test and stats.
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Aug. 16, 2022 at 7:55 a.m.
#30
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NoMoreJustin
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Quoting: DoctorBreakfast
Like someone mentioned earlier, just because an NHL GM does something doesn't mean it's a good move, as we see time and time again. How do we even know that his hits provided any kind of momentum? He's spent most of his career playing on teams that are good in spite of him, so one could argue that the teams could've succeeded and regained momentum without whatever his contributions were in the 8-9 minutes he plays.


If you’ve played the game you know that a guy like him can change the momentum with just one hit at the right time or one fight at the right time. And I’m going to trust the judgment of every NHL GM no matter how bad the team is over people on the internet with fancy charts
Aug. 16, 2022 at 8:04 a.m.
#31
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NoMoreJustin
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Quoting: MatthewsFan
There isn’t a stat out there that makes Reaves look like a strong contributor to New York’s success this season. The Rangers were outscored 30-16 at even strength with Reaves on the ice, and that minus 14 goal differential was the worst on the team. The NYR forward depth was their glaring weakness for the first three quarters of the season prior to the trade deadline, and getting outscored by nearly a 2:1 ratio whenever Reaves was on the ice was a major part of that issue.

One stat that highlights Reaves’ all-encompassing deficiencies well is the Goals Above Replacement model from Evolving Hockey. GAR (and its W(ins)AR and S(tandings)P(oints)AR conversions) are cumulative stats that incorporate even strength play, special teams play, and penalty impacts. Out of 427 forwards to skate at least 350 minutes this season, Reaves was one of only 11 to be far enough in the red in GAR to account for at least -1 WAR. That comes in spite of basically zero special teams time, which other bad players in his vicinity receive and give them more opportunities to be bad.

Taking out the special teams component of GAR and WAR, only five other players were such drags at even strength to account for -1 WAR. Being the team’s best chirper and releasing them onto the ice for games are nice things to get a chuckle out of once in awhile, but when having that requires icing a player in the conversation for the worst skater in the league, something has to give.

When the playoffs rolled around, Reaves spent even more time watching games from the bench than he usually did. No forward skated less than the 9:25 per game Reaves did in the playoffs. After a particularly rough four games against the Lightning in the Eastern Conference Finals. Reaves spent the final two games of New York’s season in the press box.

Bad
E7gv-a0XEAQZ5bQ?format=jpg&name=medium

Good
Hathaway1.png

Checks out, both eye test and stats.


And this is a great example of why I just can’t take this stuff as seriously as most of you. These analytics claim they can measure a player’s individual wins with this WAR stat. I can never take something seriously that claims one member of a team can have an exact amount of wins spelled out in numbers. How on earth can they possibly know Reaves was responsible for such a small margin of wins? And no one player can have wins measured individually as wins always have been and will be a team stat.
Aug. 16, 2022 at 8:55 a.m.
#32
torontos finest
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Quoting: LloydminsterLarry
If you’ve played the game you know that a guy like him can change the momentum with just one hit at the right time or one fight at the right time. And I’m going to trust the judgment of every NHL GM no matter how bad the team is over people on the internet with fancy charts


that's great. gm's are now finding guys who are able to do that as well as do other things too.

giving people concussions is no longer enough to earn a roster spot.
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Aug. 16, 2022 at 10:52 a.m.
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I can say unequivocally that the Avalanche skill players had a significant higher confidence level to do their job well and go hard knowing that we had Kurtis MacDermid on the roster and in the locker room. MacDermid played 0 minutes in the entire playoffs and during the regular season his average time on ice when he did play was under 8 minutes per game.

What impact did that have:
Captain Gabriel Landeskog didn't have to be the one standing up for his teammates when other teams would play too rough. He knew that Dermy would be deployed in the next game to take care of things so he could worry about just playing hockey.

There were some moments in the St. Louis series where it looked like Bednar would dress him to calm things down; but the rest of the team stayed focus on winning and not reacting. Then it happened again in Tampa Bay where Corey Perry and Pat Maroon did their best to agitate the Avs into forgetting their focus; but the team re-focused on finished the job. If they had lost focus then Bednar would have put MacDermid out and given them the breathing room not to deal with that stuff.

To a man, the entire Avalanche roster will tell you that what Dermy brings cannot be measured in any way; other than the end result: Winning the Cup. Which we did. If you just measured the one-the-ice performance of a single player like that you will always see that "he sucks" but the character and chemistry of a team is unique in hockey; just like coaching and ignoring those aspects isn't the fault of analytics but of fans/posters/commenters who misuse analytics as if it tells the whole story.
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Aug. 16, 2022 at 7:11 p.m.
#34
Speak of the Devil
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Too much analytics is bad
Not enough analytics is bad

Eye test doesn't tell the full story
Analytics don't tell the full story

Analytics are being used more in today's hockey with better availability to track those numbers and teams can get a better understanding of players without having to watch every game.

"Why would a smart team like the Rangers keep someone like Reaves if he’s so bad according to your analytics people on random corners of the internet?"
As for Reaves, the Rangers kept Reaves because he plays a role that not many NHL players play in today's game. In reality he isn't good enough to be a regular NHL player but his intangible impact on the ice keeps him in the league
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Aug. 16, 2022 at 8:03 p.m.
#35
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NoMoreJustin
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Quoting: mondo
that's great. gm's are now finding guys who are able to do that as well as do other things too.

giving people concussions is no longer enough to earn a roster spot.


And he had a roster spot though so apparently it is. At any rate you can focus on Reaves but look at a guy like Wilson who can score goals and battle with the best of them, he’s worth his weight in gold because players like him are so rare. What do your analytics say about Tom Wilson?
Aug. 16, 2022 at 8:04 p.m.
#36
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NoMoreJustin
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Quoting: Devil
Too much analytics is bad
Not enough analytics is bad

Eye test doesn't tell the full story
Analytics don't tell the full story

Analytics are being used more in today's hockey with better availability to track those numbers and teams can get a better understanding of players without having to watch every game.

"Why would a smart team like the Rangers keep someone like Reaves if he’s so bad according to your analytics people on random corners of the internet?"
As for Reaves, the Rangers kept Reaves because he plays a role that not many NHL players play in today's game. In reality he isn't good enough to be a regular NHL player but his intangible impact on the ice keeps him in the league


So you understand why a GM would keep him around… refreshing to see.
Aug. 16, 2022 at 8:32 p.m.
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Quoting: Devil
Too much analytics is bad
Not enough analytics is bad

Eye test doesn't tell the full story
Analytics don't tell the full story

Analytics are being used more in today's hockey with better availability to track those numbers and teams can get a better understanding of players without having to watch every game.

"Why would a smart team like the Rangers keep someone like Reaves if he’s so bad according to your analytics people on random corners of the internet?"
As for Reaves, the Rangers kept Reaves because he plays a role that not many NHL players play in today's game. In reality he isn't good enough to be a regular NHL player but his intangible impact on the ice keeps him in the league


You’ve pretty much hit the nail on the head with
“Too much analytics is bad
Not enough analytics is bad

Eye test doesn't tell the full story
Analytics don't tell the full story”
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Aug. 16, 2022 at 9:05 p.m.
#38
Speak of the Devil
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Quoting: LloydminsterLarry
So you understand why a GM would keep him around… refreshing to see.


I do understand why a GM would keep him around (even though I don't agree with it)
Aug. 16, 2022 at 10:16 p.m.
#39
torontos finest
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Quoting: LloydminsterLarry
And he had a roster spot though so apparently it is. At any rate you can focus on Reaves but look at a guy like Wilson who can score goals and battle with the best of them, he’s worth his weight in gold because players like him are so rare. What do your analytics say about Tom Wilson?


he has a roster spot because tom wilson broke that team and they feel they need a knuckle-dragger.

analytics definitely say better things about tom wilson because he's good at the things that are being analyzed.
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Aug. 17, 2022 at 9:00 a.m.
#40
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Edited Aug. 17, 2022 at 11:47 a.m.
Where analytics can be used very effectively is when they align with a coach/scout's opinion about a player and they can now provide objective measurement for the coach to manage the players perofrmance. Just like in any industry/organization, using objective criteria helps both parties focus on the solution and not the "feelings".

A) Coach Bednar to Andre Burakovsky: "C'mon Burky, you're turning the puck over too much in the neutral zone, you need to fix that. Extra practice time for you big guy".
B) Coach Bednar to Andre Burakovsky: "We've analyzed the neutral zone possession numbers and you rank last on the forwards at maintaining possession in the neutral zone and have the lowest giveaway/takeaway ratio; the video coaches have a film package to review with you and then we'll hit the ice and practice it".

I know that's not how it really goes; but you get the idea.

The thing about 3rd party analytics that we all get to see and use; we don't know what the coaches were expecting that player to do in each situation. This is a huge variable. What if a 3rd line player is fully expected to just dump it in as soon as he hits the red line. He does. Job done. But in the analytics his possession numbers aren't going to look too good; will his zone entry without possession be counted in any positive way?

I think these are big issues that don't get acknowledged enough by the public analytics community and so it creates the rift that traditional hockey fans, former players/coaches have about the conversation around analytics. It's not about the analytics attempt; just the way it gets broadcasted/used.
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