WHY MATTHEWS WILL LEAVE

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Created by: Cardiac

Team: 2024-25 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Aug. 14, 2022

Published: Aug. 14, 2022

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

So the max allowable contract under the CBA is 20% of the salary cap at the time of signing. I am assuming here that the salary cap will be 87.5m which means a max contract offer would be 17.5m AAV. Using CapFriendlys income tax calculator (https://www.capfriendly.com/income-tax-calculator/auston-matthews), it can be seen that Matthews would be making more money in every single market that is not in Ontario. And that is on the current year of his contract where he will have a base salary of 750k and a signing bonus of 7.2m. Assuming Matthews signs a deal similar to Matt Tkachuk, 1m in base salary and the rest in bonus’s (which makes the contract near buyout proof), Matthews would be netting $8,161,850 per year on a max contract in Toronto before escrow and agent fees. If Matthews were to sign the exact same contract in Nashville (the best city for a contract of that type), he would be netting $10,626,066 a year. That means that a 7 year contract of 17.5m in Nashville and an 8 year contract of 17.5m in Toronto, matthews would be netting $65,294,800 total in Toronto and $74,382,462 total in Nashville or a difference slightly over $9m despite the fact that matthews is signed for an extra year.

Matthews has brand deals in Toronto but ones that can easily be replaced in America. Of his 7 main deals, two are Toronto based, scotia bank and bet99. Bet99 can be replaced by any of the sports books in America. Scotia bank is different but I doubt matthews isn’t able to find somebody who pays him similarly in America.

Matthews could be offered 17.5m by Toronto and a deal with the same structure for 15m, is more lucrative for matthews in 14 other organizations, all based in the states. Of those 14 teams, the ones I see being the best bets for a matthews signing are Arizona, Dallas, and Seattle. AZ and SEA are imo the ones who have to do the least to get Matthews. DAL would have to clear some cap to get Matthew’s but it is very possible. There are other good bets as well with vegas who I doubt anybody wants to sign with but matthews could be there because of the mix of brand deals and base salary. Detroit is always a possibility as well with Steve Yzerman. And LA is the most comparable to Toronto in terms of tax dollars as there is only a 1% difference in total money brought home based on contract but the brand deals could be much more lucrative in LA.

***DISCLAIMER***
I know it’s not all money but from a pure monetary standpoint, it makes the most sense for Matthew’s to leave. The brand deals don’t cover the difference of playing somewhere else. Matthews I believe will leave as it’s common for American stars to leave Canadian markets as of late and there isn’t anything that makes Toronto different. Toronto isn’t a super desirable location to play for based on numbers alone. The area doesn’t do it much better. “But we have the best fan base” I don’t doubt you have the largest fan base but is that what players want? Guadreau went from being recognized by everybody in Calgary to likely not having anybody know him in Columbus. Hockey players in Canada are treated like movie stars in LA. Some may not like that lifestyle.

Monetarily, matthews loses money every year he plays in Toronto and leaving could net him millions while also having him play in a more desirable location for him.

THIS IS ALL SPECULATION AND I COULD BE WRONG

Anyways let me know your thoughts and why or why not matthews would leave

Team explanation:
LW: the team matthews signs with and the amount he signs for
C: what he nets per year before agent fees and escrow which is a constant
RW: how much more Matthews makes a year compared to Toronto

Free Agent Signings

UFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Matthews, Auston		8	$17,500,000

CREATED	YEARS	CAP HIT
MATTHEWS, NETS	1	$8,161,850
MATTHEWS, NETS	1	$10,626,066
MATTHEWS, NETS	1	$10,623,600
MATTHEWS, NETS	1	$10,622,826
MATTHEWS, NETS	1	$9,839,281
MATTHEWS, NASHVILLE	7	$17,500,000
MATTHEWS, VEGAS	7	$17,500,000
MATTHEWS, SEATTLE	7	$17,500,000
MATTHEWS, ARIZONA	7	$17,500,000
MATTHEWS, TORONTO	7	$15,000,000
MATTHEWS, NASHVILLE	7	$15,000,000
MATTHEWS, VEGAS	7	$15,000,000
MATTHEWS, SEATTLE	7	$15,000,000
MATTHEWS, ARIZONA	7	$15,000,000
BAR, BAR	1	$1,111,111
BAR, BAR	1	$1,111,111
MATTHEWS, NETS	1	$7,000,100
MATTHEWS, NETS	1	$9,109,851
MATTHEWS, NETS	1	$9,107,392
MATTHEWS, NETS	1	$9,106,615
MATTHEWS, NETS	1	$8,436,573
0000, 00000	1	$775,000
HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES	1	$2,464,216
HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES	1	$2,461,750
HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES	1	$2,460,976
HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES	1	$1,677,431
HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES	1	$2,109,750
HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES	1	$2,107,292
HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES	1	$2,106,515
HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES	1	$1,436,473
BAR, BAR	1	$1,111,111
0000, 0000	1	$775,000

Buried

Mitchell Marner: $9,753,000 ($10,903,000)
Morgan Rielly: $6,350,000 ($7,500,000)
John Tavares: $9,850,000 ($11,000,000)
Calle Järnkrok: $950,000 ($2,100,000)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2023
2024
2025

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
33	$87,500,000	$303,744,890	$0	$0	-$216,244,890

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Matthews, Auston $17,500,000$17,500,000 C UFA - 4		0000, 00000 $775,000$775,000
MATTHEWS, NASHVILLE $17,500,000$17,500,000		HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES $2,464,216$2,464,216
MATTHEWS, VEGAS $17,500,000$17,500,000		HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES $2,461,750$2,461,750
MATTHEWS, SEATTLE $17,500,000$17,500,000		HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES $2,460,976$2,460,976
MATTHEWS, ARIZONA $17,500,000$17,500,000	MATTHEWS, NETS $8,161,850$8,161,850	HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES $1,677,431$1,677,431
BAR, BAR $1,111,111$1,111,111	MATTHEWS, NETS $10,626,066$10,626,066	BAR, BAR $1,111,111$1,111,111
MATTHEWS, TORONTO $15,000,000$15,000,000	MATTHEWS, NETS $10,623,600$10,623,600	0000, 0000 $775,000$775,000
MATTHEWS, NASHVILLE $15,000,000$15,000,000	MATTHEWS, NETS $10,622,826$10,622,826	HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES $2,109,750$2,109,750
MATTHEWS, VEGAS $15,000,000$15,000,000	MATTHEWS, NETS $9,839,281$9,839,281	HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES $2,107,292$2,107,292
MATTHEWS, SEATTLE $15,000,000$15,000,000	BAR, BAR $1,111,111$1,111,111	HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES $2,106,515$2,106,515
MATTHEWS, ARIZONA $15,000,000$15,000,000	MATTHEWS, NETS $7,000,100$7,000,100	HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES $1,436,473$1,436,473
	MATTHEWS, NETS $9,109,851$9,109,851
	MATTHEWS, NETS $9,107,392$9,107,392
	MATTHEWS, NETS $9,106,615$9,106,615
	MATTHEWS, NETS $8,436,573$8,436,573

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender

Aug. 14, 2022 at 4:53 p.m.

JAKE6

Let Him Cook

Joined: Jul. 2021

Posts: 4,011

Likes: 962

toronto gives 12x8 to matthews when the time comes

Aug. 14, 2022 at 4:54 p.m.

ReginaSask

Dave Keon Fan

Joined: Aug. 2020

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This is great work and probably the best example of how absurd taxes are in Ontario

HOCKEYBOY448, Cardiac, Fox_Czar_Cup and 2 others liked this.

Aug. 14, 2022 at 4:56 p.m.

Theozler

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 4,099

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Quoting: jake4leafs

Why would he takes cut when he specifically signed a deal that would take him to a prime ufa deal

ReginaSask, Cardiac, Fox_Czar_Cup and 1 other person liked this.

Aug. 14, 2022 at 4:57 p.m.

HOCKEYBOY448

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 6,563

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That’s actually kinda crazy the difference in money. Great work with this.

Fox_Czar_Cup, vikhodush and MP55 liked this.

Aug. 14, 2022 at 4:59 p.m.

Claesson4Norris

Joined: Jan. 2018

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Wow you sure care a lot

Fox_Czar_Cup liked this.

Aug. 14, 2022 at 4:59 p.m.

Cardiac

Thread Starter

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Quoting: ReginaSask

This is great work and probably the best example of how absurd taxes are in Ontario

Honestly the only ones close in the NHL are the California taxes and all Americans know how bad those are. For there to be a difference of 14% between the location of one teams income tax vs the location of another shows how the NHL may need a salary cap rule change. I think an adjusted cap would be much more fair for teams as it doesn’t give Florida teams a major advantage. Nashville having a cap at $82.5m is the same as Toronto having a $94m cap. Pretty unfair but it is much more simple to just have the same cap hit for every team.

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Aug. 14, 2022 at 5:00 p.m.

Cardiac

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Quoting: Claesson4Norris

Wow you sure care a lot

Nah I just find it interesting and would like to share my findings

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Aug. 14, 2022 at 5:07 p.m.

draft_em_sign_em_trade_em

Joined: Nov. 2018

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The signing bonus money is key, players can take those large lump sums of cash and invest it to make more $$$ than taking the regular pay check style.

I'm sure the investment money profit doesn't balance out the tax money loss, but still it's another factor.

Also all the rich need to do is spend a few grand on a good accountant and they walk away paying less tax than the normal man.

The tax the rich motto always fails because the rich can find the loopholes the normal people can't.

Aug. 14, 2022 at 5:09 p.m.

JaredOfLondon

Joined: May 2019

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lol if you think rich people in canada and other higher tax states pay taxes like normal people

Fox_Czar_Cup and palhal liked this.

Aug. 14, 2022 at 5:13 p.m.

#10

Cardiac

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Quoting: JaredOfLondon

lol if you think rich people in canada and other higher tax states pay taxes like normal people

Do you think the rich people in the states pay taxes like normal people? If there is a 14% difference between the 2, I would imagine there is a similar difference between the 2 when it comes to finding loop holes and all that. Not going to be linear but expect there to be a difference nonetheless.

Aug. 14, 2022 at 5:20 p.m.

#11

Cardiac

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Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em

Signing bonus definitely is more lucrative because the money is upfront. I do acknowledge that it isn’t black and white like this makes it out to be but this is the start. One makes more than the other upfront but there is still taxes on the signing bonuses. It would be a nice loophole to get players to sign with you if you have worse taxes to just put most the money in a SB. There are so many aspects to the game and money is a key one that isn’t talked about as much. Sure you talk about AAVs and contracts but most don’t get into the deeper aspects. This was mainly to show the deeper aspect and when you peel back layers, it makes sense to leave. Sure he won’t be paying the 53% that this displays it as but if he has a similar quality accountant, he should be netting less playing in Toronto rather than somewhere else. There are more aspects to it but this is a rough outline of the netted money.

Aug. 14, 2022 at 5:25 p.m.

#12

JaredOfLondon

Joined: May 2019

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Quoting: Cardiac

Rich people everywhere dont pay taxes like normal people, especially rich people who hace connections to other countries where they can store their cash and assets. It doesnt matter where they actually live or 'pay' their taxes. Anyone who knows anything about taxes knows that.

Aug. 14, 2022 at 5:29 p.m.

#13

draft_em_sign_em_trade_em

Joined: Nov. 2018

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Quoting: Cardiac

I agree, an American playing in Canada like Matthews, must wonder why ? Am I doing this.

I get screwed in the Canadian tax system and I'll live so far away from "home".

Dubas understand the signing bonus trick, both Marner and Matthews signed for 750K per year, rest in SB, so they can invest $$$ or buy a new house, all paid upfront every year, to play the ever increasing housing market profit margin.

Aug. 14, 2022 at 5:54 p.m.

#14

xercuses

Xercuses

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I ain’t reading all that
I’m happy for you tho or sorry that happened

Nah Fr tho it’s crazy what taxes do to ya
Cali taxes suck too

vikhodush liked this.

Aug. 14, 2022 at 5:56 p.m.

#15

Cardiac

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Quoting: xercuses

I ain’t reading all that
I’m happy for you tho or sorry that happened

Nah Fr tho it’s crazy what taxes do to ya
Cali taxes suck too

Lmao. I’m seeing what an adjusted salary cap would look like and cali and Ontario would have like 94m as a cap hit which is nuts.

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Aug. 14, 2022 at 5:59 p.m.

#16

Cardiac

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Quoting: JaredOfLondon

Dude I’m agreeing with you. I’m saying the base difference though is there and translates to the loopholes. There is a reason why business owners have land in Delaware. It Varys everywhere but no matter what loopholes you have, you are likely paying less in the states as opposed to Canada. End of discussion.

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Aug. 14, 2022 at 6:08 p.m.

#17

JaredOfLondon

Joined: May 2019

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Quoting: Cardiac

and Im saying matthews, or any hockey player, does not have to live or play in the states for that to matter. He could load all his money into the British virgin islands if he really wanted to. So your entire point on taxes is moot because it doesnt matter what crest is on the front of his jersey

Aug. 14, 2022 at 6:17 p.m.

#18

MikeKeenanHatesMe

Red Deer Is Superior

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Edited Aug. 14, 2022 at 8:31 p.m.

This is very solid work and goes with everything I’ve been telling every Leaf who’s given us crap over Gaudreau and Tkachuk. Their day is coming although income tax isn’t the problem.

Aug. 14, 2022 at 6:18 p.m.

#19

MikeKeenanHatesMe

Red Deer Is Superior

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Quoting: JaredOfLondon

Apparently someone forgot to tell Dadonov

Aug. 14, 2022 at 6:25 p.m.

#20

JaredOfLondon

Joined: May 2019

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Quoting: MikeKeenanHatesMe

Apparently someone forgot to tell Dadonov

well he signed in canada for 3 years on his last deal of his own accord, so if he has an issue with a place, it's probably not taxes

Aug. 14, 2022 at 6:41 p.m.

#21

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

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Edited Aug. 14, 2022 at 6:51 p.m.

Again you get into this fantasy about "personal income" taxes. Why do you NHL players are subject to personal taxes on their whole salary. Why do you think Matthews pays Ontario or even Canadian taxes? Never hear about any player signing or traded to the Jays or Raptors complaining about more taxes, but the tax experts on CapFriendly think it's an issue.

Now I don't think Matthew is resigning with the Leafs, but certainly the reason isn't going to be taxes.

I know of one former NHL who made about 20m is his NHL career. He never touched any of "salary" and lived on other incomes the NHL and sponsors. Almost all of that 20m and more was sheltered in his "corporation"

Nice chart but doesn't meet the reality check of what "entertainers" pay in taxes.

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Aug. 14, 2022 at 6:46 p.m.

#22

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

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Matthews current contract is mostly off-season signing bonuses, so he can declare that income in Arizona. There's no reason his next deal won't be structured the same way.

Aug. 14, 2022 at 7:17 p.m.

#23

Cardiac

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Quoting: palhal

I do agree I don’t know the inner workings but I use the tools I have. I’m using cap friendlys calculator to determine all this. I think it’s an issue because money is money. Sure realistically they aren’t paying over 50% like most residents of Ontario but is it absurd to say that there is a difference there? The MLB and NBA also aren’t as cap conscious as the NHL. All but 4 NBA teams are projected over their salary cap. The MLB has massive disparity between the top teams and bottom teams in terms of payroll. The Os have 65m in payroll. The Yankees have 390m in payroll. That is 6 times more. Neither are really comparable to the NHL as both of the Toronto teams are either over the salary cap or well above league average in terms of what they pay their players. It’s different for sure but I would say matthews could leave because of the money tbh. I want to get smarter with it so I do study it but as of now, that’s all I have seen in terms of salary.

Aug. 14, 2022 at 7:18 p.m.

#24

littlejerryseinfeld

Joined: Nov. 2017

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Quoting: Cardiac

A signing bonus isn't taxed the same as salary

Aug. 14, 2022 at 7:21 p.m.

#25

mondo

torontos finest

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rich people should pay more taxes

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