Forums/Armchair-GM

WHY MATTHEWS WILL LEAVE

Created by: Cardiac
Initial Creation Date: Aug. 14, 2022
Published: Aug. 14, 2022
Team: 2024-25 Toronto Maple Leafs
Team Explanation
So the max allowable contract under the CBA is 20% of the salary cap at the time of signing. I am assuming here that the salary cap will be 87.5m which means a max contract offer would be 17.5m AAV. Using CapFriendlys income tax calculator (https://www.capfriendly.com/income-tax-calculator/auston-matthews), it can be seen that Matthews would be making more money in every single market that is not in Ontario. And that is on the current year of his contract where he will have a base salary of 750k and a signing bonus of 7.2m. Assuming Matthews signs a deal similar to Matt Tkachuk, 1m in base salary and the rest in bonus’s (which makes the contract near buyout proof), Matthews would be netting $8,161,850 per year on a max contract in Toronto before escrow and agent fees. If Matthews were to sign the exact same contract in Nashville (the best city for a contract of that type), he would be netting $10,626,066 a year. That means that a 7 year contract of 17.5m in Nashville and an 8 year contract of 17.5m in Toronto, matthews would be netting $65,294,800 total in Toronto and $74,382,462 total in Nashville or a difference slightly over $9m despite the fact that matthews is signed for an extra year.

Matthews has brand deals in Toronto but ones that can easily be replaced in America. Of his 7 main deals, two are Toronto based, scotia bank and bet99. Bet99 can be replaced by any of the sports books in America. Scotia bank is different but I doubt matthews isn’t able to find somebody who pays him similarly in America.

Matthews could be offered 17.5m by Toronto and a deal with the same structure for 15m, is more lucrative for matthews in 14 other organizations, all based in the states. Of those 14 teams, the ones I see being the best bets for a matthews signing are Arizona, Dallas, and Seattle. AZ and SEA are imo the ones who have to do the least to get Matthews. DAL would have to clear some cap to get Matthew’s but it is very possible. There are other good bets as well with vegas who I doubt anybody wants to sign with but matthews could be there because of the mix of brand deals and base salary. Detroit is always a possibility as well with Steve Yzerman. And LA is the most comparable to Toronto in terms of tax dollars as there is only a 1% difference in total money brought home based on contract but the brand deals could be much more lucrative in LA.

***DISCLAIMER***
I know it’s not all money but from a pure monetary standpoint, it makes the most sense for Matthew’s to leave. The brand deals don’t cover the difference of playing somewhere else. Matthews I believe will leave as it’s common for American stars to leave Canadian markets as of late and there isn’t anything that makes Toronto different. Toronto isn’t a super desirable location to play for based on numbers alone. The area doesn’t do it much better. “But we have the best fan base” I don’t doubt you have the largest fan base but is that what players want? Guadreau went from being recognized by everybody in Calgary to likely not having anybody know him in Columbus. Hockey players in Canada are treated like movie stars in LA. Some may not like that lifestyle.

Monetarily, matthews loses money every year he plays in Toronto and leaving could net him millions while also having him play in a more desirable location for him.

THIS IS ALL SPECULATION AND I COULD BE WRONG

Anyways let me know your thoughts and why or why not matthews would leave

Team explanation:
LW: the team matthews signs with and the amount he signs for
C: what he nets per year before agent fees and escrow which is a constant
RW: how much more Matthews makes a year compared to Toronto
Free Agent Signings
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
Matthews, Auston8$17,500,000
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
MATTHEWS, NETS1$8,161,850
MATTHEWS, NETS1$10,626,066
MATTHEWS, NETS1$10,623,600
MATTHEWS, NETS1$10,622,826
MATTHEWS, NETS1$9,839,281
MATTHEWS, NASHVILLE7$17,500,000
MATTHEWS, VEGAS7$17,500,000
MATTHEWS, SEATTLE7$17,500,000
MATTHEWS, ARIZONA7$17,500,000
MATTHEWS, TORONTO7$15,000,000
MATTHEWS, NASHVILLE7$15,000,000
MATTHEWS, VEGAS7$15,000,000
MATTHEWS, SEATTLE7$15,000,000
MATTHEWS, ARIZONA7$15,000,000
BAR, BAR1$1,111,111
BAR, BAR1$1,111,111
MATTHEWS, NETS1$7,000,100
MATTHEWS, NETS1$9,109,851
MATTHEWS, NETS1$9,107,392
MATTHEWS, NETS1$9,106,615
MATTHEWS, NETS1$8,436,573
0000, 000001$775,000
HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES1$2,464,216
HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES1$2,461,750
HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES1$2,460,976
HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES1$1,677,431
HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES1$2,109,750
HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES1$2,107,292
HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES1$2,106,515
HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES1$1,436,473
BAR, BAR1$1,111,111
0000, 00001$775,000
Buried
  • Mitchell Marner: $9,753,000 ($10,903,000)
  • Morgan Rielly: $6,350,000 ($7,500,000)
  • John Tavares: $9,850,000 ($11,000,000)
  • Calle Järnkrok: $950,000 ($2,100,000)
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2023
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
2024
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the OTT
2025
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
33$87,500,000$303,744,890$0$0-$216,244,890
Left WingCenterRight Wing
Logo of the TOR
Matthews, Auston
$17,500,000
C
UFA
MATTHEWS, NETS
$8,161,850
0000, 00000
$775,000
MATTHEWS, NASHVILLE
$17,500,000
MATTHEWS, NETS
$10,626,066
HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES
$2,464,216
MATTHEWS, VEGAS
$17,500,000
MATTHEWS, NETS
$10,623,600
HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES
$2,461,750
MATTHEWS, SEATTLE
$17,500,000
MATTHEWS, NETS
$10,622,826
HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES
$2,460,976
MATTHEWS, ARIZONA
$17,500,000
MATTHEWS, NETS
$9,839,281
HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES
$1,677,431
BAR, BAR
$1,111,111
BAR, BAR
$1,111,111
BAR, BAR
$1,111,111
MATTHEWS, TORONTO
$15,000,000
MATTHEWS, NETS
$7,000,100
0000, 0000
$775,000
MATTHEWS, NASHVILLE
$15,000,000
MATTHEWS, NETS
$9,109,851
HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES
$2,109,750
MATTHEWS, VEGAS
$15,000,000
MATTHEWS, NETS
$9,107,392
HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES
$2,107,292
MATTHEWS, SEATTLE
$15,000,000
MATTHEWS, NETS
$9,106,615
HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES
$2,106,515
MATTHEWS, ARIZONA
$15,000,000
MATTHEWS, NETS
$8,436,573
HOW MUCH MORE, MATTHEWS MAKES
$1,436,473
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender

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Aug. 14 at 7:22 p.m.
#26
Bandwagon fairweathe
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Maybe wrong, but Arizona owner has 7x20-percent of salary cap contract sitting in his desk, along with a guarantee that he will be always the highest paid player in the league guarantee if it’s legal. Owner owns casinos, he’s going to do everything he can to fill a new building in arizona. Draft picks and complimentary players til the time comes, gear the entire build with adding elcs and complimentary player extensions for a soft landing for Mathews. Just an opinion, bedard hunt also coming this season.
Aug. 14 at 7:27 p.m.
#27
too dumb to log off
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Quoting: Birtle34
Maybe wrong, but Arizona owner has 7x20-percent of salary cap contract sitting in his desk, along with a guarantee that he will be always the highest paid player in the league guarantee if it’s legal. Owner owns casinos, he’s going to do everything he can to fill a new building in arizona. Draft picks and complimentary players til the time comes, gear the entire build with adding elcs and complimentary player extensions for a soft landing for Mathews. Just an opinion, bedard hunt also coming this season.


actually he's a cheap, penny pitching **** who decided he'd rather rent a 5000 seat arena instead of pay rent in glendale

if matthews is leaving, it's not to arizona. it's to a place where he'll actually get media attention, like new york, los angeles, etc.
Aug. 14 at 7:40 p.m.
#28
Bandwagon fairweathe
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Quoting: mondo
actually he's a cheap, penny pitching **** who decided he'd rather rent a 5000 seat arena instead of pay rent in glendale

if matthews is leaving, it's not to arizona. it's to a place where he'll actually get media attention, like new york, los angeles, etc.


My point is more that the owner brings Mathews to town as if he’s Britney Spears or Celine dion, and attempts to sell out, over a hockey budget. Then fills the backup dancers as bargain complimentary pieces. Nobody making over 8 with him. Unless they truly strike gold in draft. Just a prediction
Aug. 14 at 7:56 p.m.
#29
Kster
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I think Matthews stays; players choose places to play for lots of reasons, money being a considerable factor. But they look at lifestyle (Toronto one of the best cities in NAFTA, albeit he may not love the weather), organization (Toronto is the best, with the most money and state of the art facilities and support staff), team (Toronto perennial top 5-10 since he joined, albeit yet to win in playoffs), fan base (Toronto’s is the biggest in the league and to win a Stanley cup here would be LEGENDARY) and endorsement deals (Toronto offers the most opportunities given his and sport’s popularity). Money / taxes argument is complicated as already written but for the rest, just don’t see any team that can offer him everything the leafs can. Time will tell but I predict another 5 year deal (leaving him room to sign one more)
Aug. 14 at 8:27 p.m.
#30
Red Deer Is Superior
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Quoting: JaredOfLondon
well he signed in canada for 3 years on his last deal of his own accord, so if he has an issue with a place, it's probably not taxes


I am aware of that. The real reason Americans are leaving is they are sick and tired of our crazy lockdowns and vax passports. That’s a part of why Gaudreau and Tkachuk left
Aug. 14 at 8:33 p.m.
#31
Red Deer Is Superior
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Quoting: palhal
Again you get into this fantasy about "personal income" taxes. Why do you NHL players are subject to personal taxes on their whole salary. Why do you think Matthews pays Ontario or even Canadian taxes? Never hear about any player signing or traded to the Jays or Raptors complaining about more taxes, but the tax experts on CapFriendly think it's an issue.

Now I don't think Matthew is resigning with the Leafs, but certainly the reason isn't going to be taxes.

I know of one former NHL who made about 20m is his NHL career. He never touched any of "salary" and lived on other incomes the NHL and sponsors. Almost all of that 20m and more was sheltered in his "corporation"

Nice chart but doesn't meet the reality check of what "entertainers" pay in taxes.


Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
I agree, an American playing in Canada like Matthews, must wonder why ? Am I doing this.

I get screwed in the Canadian tax system and I'll live so far away from "home".

Dubas understand the signing bonus trick, both Marner and Matthews signed for 750K per year, rest in SB, so they can invest $$$ or buy a new house, all paid upfront every year, to play the ever increasing housing market profit margin.


The bonus money isn’t even taxed in Canada. And a player can have their money

You are 100% correct but it’s not really the income taxes that kill someone who makes a lot in Ontario, it’s property tax
Aug. 14 at 8:43 p.m.
#32
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Quoting: MikeKeenanHatesMe
I am aware of that. The real reason Americans are leaving is they are sick and tired of our crazy lockdowns and vax passports. That’s a part of why Gaudreau and Tkachuk left


yeah, the things that dont exist anymore and the vax issue that worked going to the states as well. It was all just excuses. Gaudreau wanted to go home, it was that simple, but philly couldnt get the cash so he went as close as he could to a spot where his wife could work at one of the best childrens hospitals in the world. No one but Tkachuk knows why he wanted out of Calgary and canadian teams have had zero issues retaining or signing players for non-money or league status reasons.
Aug. 14 at 8:49 p.m.
#33
Red Deer Is Superior
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Quoting: JaredOfLondon
yeah, the things that dont exist anymore and the vax issue that worked going to the states as well. It was all just excuses. Gaudreau wanted to go home, it was that simple, but philly couldnt get the cash so he went as close as he could to a spot where his wife could work at one of the best childrens hospitals in the world. No one but Tkachuk knows why he wanted out of Calgary and canadian teams have had zero issues retaining or signing players for non-money or league status reasons.


Americans players have been very clear about their frustrations with our lockdowns. It’s why Petry left Montreal. It’s why Justin Faulk made his comments about not enjoying playing in Canada
Aug. 14 at 8:52 p.m.
#34
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Quoting: MikeKeenanHatesMe
Americans players have been very clear about their frustrations with our lockdowns. It’s why Petry left Montreal. It’s why Justin Faulk made his comments about not enjoying playing in Canada


yes, lockdowns that havent been a thing in like 2 years. Like i said, they arnt happening any more, if a player is leaving now because of 'lockdowns' or 'vax passports' they are just making excuses. They didnt like it because they couldnt go visit their families or have them come visit them, yeah, we get it, but anyone still complaining about lockdowns is probably thinking about driving their truck to ottawa and honking for 2 weeks because they think trudeau is too pretty or whatever
Aug. 14 at 9:35 p.m.
#35
Red Deer Is Superior
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Quoting: JaredOfLondon
yes, lockdowns that havent been a thing in like 2 years. Like i said, they arnt happening any more, if a player is leaving now because of 'lockdowns' or 'vax passports' they are just making excuses. They didnt like it because they couldnt go visit their families or have them come visit them, yeah, we get it, but anyone still complaining about lockdowns is probably thinking about driving their truck to ottawa and honking for 2 weeks because they think trudeau is too pretty or whatever


2 years? They were a thing well into 2021. At any rate you have put your cards on the table and I’m not going to get myself in trouble with the mods arguing about politics here
 
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