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Vegas going for that goalie

Created by: trevorstanley21
Published: Aug. 15, 2022 at 1:32 p.m.
Salary Cap: $82,500,000
Season Days: 185/186 (99%)
Central Registry Determination: This trade has met the central registry's trade checklist

Logo of the Dallas StarsDallas Stars

OutStatusRetained SalaryEffective Cap HitRosterSPCReserve ListDraft Rd 1Rd 2-3Rd 4-7GPGAPGAASv%
Oettinger, JakeDallas StarsNHL-$0011-------00
InStatusRetained SalaryEffective Cap HitRosterSPCReserve ListDraft Rd 1Rd 2-3Rd 4-7GPGAPGAASv%
Lehner, RobinVegas Golden KnightsIR-$4,973,118011-------00
Marchessault, JonathanVegas Golden KnightsNHL-$4,973,118011---0000--
2023 1st round pick (Logo of the Vegas Golden KnightsVGK)---100------
2023 3rd round pick (Logo of the Buffalo SabresBUF)---010------
2025 2nd round pick (Logo of the Vegas Golden KnightsVGK)---010------
ChangeCap SpaceRosterSPCReserve ListDraft Rd 1Rd 2-3Rd 4-7GPGAPGAASv%
Initial$10,335,8342142593511
Change-$9,946,236021120
Final$389,598 (↓)2144 (↑)60 (↑)4 (↑)7 (↑)11000

Logo of the Vegas Golden KnightsVegas Golden Knights

OutStatusRetained SalaryEffective Cap HitRosterSPCReserve ListDraft Rd 1Rd 2-3Rd 4-7GPGAPGAASv%
Lehner, RobinVegas Golden KnightsIR-$4,973,118011-------00
Marchessault, JonathanVegas Golden KnightsNHL-$4,973,118011---0000--
2023 1st round pick (Logo of the Vegas Golden KnightsVGK)---100------
2023 3rd round pick (Logo of the Buffalo SabresBUF)---010------
2025 2nd round pick (Logo of the Vegas Golden KnightsVGK)---010------
InStatusRetained SalaryEffective Cap HitRosterSPCReserve ListDraft Rd 1Rd 2-3Rd 4-7GPGAPGAASv%
Oettinger, JakeDallas StarsNHL-$0011-------00
ChangeCap SpaceRosterSPCReserve ListDraft Rd 1Rd 2-3Rd 4-7GPGAPGAASv%
Initial-$5,794,6431747623611
Change$9,946,2360-2-1-1-20
Final$4,151,593 (↑)1745 (↓)61 (↓)2 (↓)4 (↓)11000
Aug. 15, 2022 at 2:00 p.m.
#1
Dr
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No from Dallas. Find a goalie elsewhere
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Aug. 15, 2022 at 2:15 p.m.
#2
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tstan21
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If dallas can find another goalie, even a short term one until lehner is ready the next year, then they win this trade
Aug. 15, 2022 at 2:28 p.m.
#3
Dr
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Quoting: trevorstanley21
If dallas can find another goalie, even a short term one until lehner is ready the next year, then they win this trade


Dallas doesnt have to find a goalie cuz they arnt trading Jake. Dallas isnt in rebuild mode. Your game plan fits better with a team thats in a rebuild.

Lets say this deal happens.
What do you give Jake in terms of Salary and Years?
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Aug. 15, 2022 at 2:40 p.m.
#4
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Quoting: trevorstanley21
If dallas can find another goalie, even a short term one until lehner is ready the next year, then they win this trade


Dallas is trading a 23-year old, currently fringe top-10 goalie that looks like he's going to be a top-5 goalie for the better part of the next decade. He plays the most valuable position on the ice. Sure, Marchessault brings offense, but it doesn't matter when we have a questionable defense and a bad goalie duo. Dallas does not win this trade

And you're too high on Lehner. Even when he comes back healthy, what gives Dallas the belief that he's going to be anything more than the average goaltender he was last season? Add another year to an injury prone goalie & what makes anyone think that he's even going to be able to come back and handle the kind of load that starting goaltenders are expected to handle?

Does Vegas need a goalie? Absolutely. Is Oettinger the answer for them? Not unless they are willing to send out a $10M+ offer sheet.
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Aug. 15, 2022 at 4:14 p.m.
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tstan21
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Quoting: RobbinGoods
Dallas doesnt have to find a goalie cuz they arnt trading Jake. Dallas isnt in rebuild mode. Your game plan fits better with a team thats in a rebuild.

Lets say this deal happens.
What do you give Jake in terms of Salary and Years?


I believe that he still does have something to prove. I’d start off with a 2 year just to make sure he can build up to standards. Maybe 4.8-5.5 area for 2 years
Aug. 15, 2022 at 4:16 p.m.
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tstan21
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Quoting: TheMooterus
Dallas is trading a 23-year old, currently fringe top-10 goalie that looks like he's going to be a top-5 goalie for the better part of the next decade. He plays the most valuable position on the ice. Sure, Marchessault brings offense, but it doesn't matter when we have a questionable defense and a bad goalie duo. Dallas does not win this trade

And you're too high on Lehner. Even when he comes back healthy, what gives Dallas the belief that he's going to be anything more than the average goaltender he was last season? Add another year to an injury prone goalie & what makes anyone think that he's even going to be able to come back and handle the kind of load that starting goaltenders are expected to handle?

Does Vegas need a goalie? Absolutely. Is Oettinger the answer for them? Not unless they are willing to send out a $10M+ offer sheet.


He’s a good goalie and yes he has potential, but I don’t think we can compare him anywhere to Vasilevskiy, Shesterkin, or Markstrom yet.
Aug. 15, 2022 at 4:48 p.m.
#7
Dr
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Quoting: trevorstanley21
I believe that he still does have something to prove. I’d start off with a 2 year just to make sure he can build up to standards. Maybe 4.8-5.5 area for 2 years


So 4.8 is too rich for Jim Nill?

Nill hung on to Nichuskin and Honka for way too long. His first round picks that he was expecting greatness from. Didnt pan out. But ihe did try to get them going for a while.

Then you have Jake, a goalie that Nill wanted and traded up in picks to acquire. And you expect me to believe that he trades him because 4.8 is too much??
Aug. 15, 2022 at 5:30 p.m.
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tstan21
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Quoting: RobbinGoods
So 4.8 is too rich for Jim Nill?

Nill hung on to Nichuskin and Honka for way too long. His first round picks that he was expecting greatness from. Didnt pan out. But ihe did try to get them going for a while.

Then you have Jake, a goalie that Nill wanted and traded up in picks to acquire. And you expect me to believe that he trades him because 4.8 is too much??


If it was 4.8 then it would be done already. They aren’t gonna want a goalie that’s asking for too much if he’s still young and has more to prove. I think he needs to take the 5 mil and just continue to develop into a star
Aug. 15, 2022 at 6:47 p.m.
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Quoting: trevorstanley21
If it was 4.8 then it would be done already. They aren’t gonna want a goalie that’s asking for too much if he’s still young and has more to prove. I think he needs to take the 5 mil and just continue to develop into a star


5 mil is what his agent is asking for.
5 is a bit much.

His contract should be similar to Carter Hart’s. But just a little bit more. Cap hasnt gone up much since. Both are fairly close in comparison. Jake has better numbers. Both under 100 games ( comparing Jake now to Hart pre-4 mil contract )
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Aug. 15, 2022 at 8:27 p.m.
#10
couldnt afford 2nd t
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Dallas only trades Oettinger if they are fearful of an offer sheet.

Vegas could sign Oettinger to an inflated one year contract now that Lehner will be on LTIR. There are no rumors or reasonable speculation that they will do this, it's just a fun fantasy trade idea.

If the above happened, Dallas would need to get a goalie from someone else. So they would not want to take back cap space, since they are already tight on cap space. I also doubt they would want Lehner's contract, since Lehner has been inconsistent for the last few years with injuries, and up and down play. Vegas would have to keep Lehner, and find a way out of that contract next off season.

Dallas might ask for Logan Thompson, which would be a high risk/high reward piece. He is signed for 3 years at only 766k, and was the best goalie in Vegas to close out last season.

It might be something like Thompson, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd for Oettinger. Hague could be involved too, or he could be moved elsewhere to recoup picks. It is unlikely that Vegas can sign Hague if they have to pay Oettinger.
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Aug. 15, 2022 at 9:04 p.m.
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tstan21
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Quoting: RobbinGoods
5 mil is what his agent is asking for.
5 is a bit much.

His contract should be similar to Carter Hart’s. But just a little bit more. Cap hasnt gone up much since. Both are fairly close in comparison. Jake has better numbers. Both under 100 games ( comparing Jake now to Hart pre-4 mil contract )


That’s what the worry would be about. Carter Hart is ok, but not someone who’s gonna hold a team on their back.
Aug. 16, 2022 at 1:33 a.m.
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Quoting: trevorstanley21
He’s a good goalie and yes he has potential, but I don’t think we can compare him anywhere to Vasilevskiy, Shesterkin, or Markstrom yet.


Not comparing him to Shesterkin, Markstrom, or Vasilevskiy (though his numbers are comparable to Vasi through each players first 2 full seasons). I'm saying that he's one of the only young goalies in the league that even have that kind of potential.

Worst case for Dallas, Oettinger doesn't hit that elite level and is still a back end, top-10 goalie. Best case scenario, he challenges for Vezina's at some point in his career. Either way, he's not the kind of player you trade away simply because contract negotiations are taking a while.
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Aug. 16, 2022 at 10:42 a.m.
#13
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tstan21
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Quoting: TheMooterus
Not comparing him to Shesterkin, Markstrom, or Vasilevskiy (though his numbers are comparable to Vasi through each players first 2 full seasons). I'm saying that he's one of the only young goalies in the league that even have that kind of potential.

Worst case for Dallas, Oettinger doesn't hit that elite level and is still a back end, top-10 goalie. Best case scenario, he challenges for Vezina's at some point in his career. Either way, he's not the kind of player you trade away simply because contract negotiations are taking a while.


What if he turns into Carter Hart?
Aug. 16, 2022 at 11:05 a.m.
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Quoting: trevorstanley21
What if he turns into Carter Hart?


If you’re concerned about him turning into Carter Hart then why do you make this trade?
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Aug. 16, 2022 at 11:38 a.m.
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tstan21
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Quoting: TheMooterus
If you’re concerned about him turning into Carter Hart then why do you make this trade?


If he does then it’s a great move for dallas. Get a bunch of assets before he turns into no value. Yes he can turn into a great goalie, but he can also go in that direction as well
Aug. 16, 2022 at 11:49 a.m.
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Quoting: trevorstanley21
If he does then it’s a great move for dallas. Get a bunch of assets before he turns into no value. Yes he can turn into a great goalie, but he can also go in that direction as well


And based on his early career, the likelihood of him turning into a great goalie is higher than the likelihood of him becoming a dud (btw Hart is only 24 btw, so don’t write him off yet).
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Aug. 16, 2022 at 7:31 p.m.
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tstan21
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Quoting: TheMooterus
And based on his early career, the likelihood of him turning into a great goalie is higher than the likelihood of him becoming a dud (btw Hart is only 24 btw, so don’t write him off yet).


Yes and Hart was also like 21 so he looked a lot more promising. Maybe the same thing doesn’t happen but it’s a risk they’ll have to take.
Aug. 17, 2022 at 2:07 a.m.
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Quoting: trevorstanley21
Yes and Hart was also like 21 so he looked a lot more promising. Maybe the same thing doesn’t happen but it’s a risk they’ll have to take.


Hart has not had a full season (postseason included) like Oettinger had last year.

At the end of the day, you can have your own opinion on the matter, but the exact reason you think Vegas should trade for Oettinger is the exact reason that Dallas won't trade him.
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