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Kerfoot to wild

Created by: GenXHockey
Team: 2022-23 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Aug. 20, 2022
Published: Aug. 20, 2022
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23$82,500,000$82,111,450$212,500$0$388,550
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RD
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G
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RD
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Aug. 20, 2022 at 3:18 p.m.
#76
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Quoting: Logan_Ollivier
Yes, Kerfoot is worthless that has been consistent but why he is changes every response.


So me saying that losing him hurts means I think he's worthless? Hmmm. Very interesting take.
Aug. 20, 2022 at 3:22 p.m.
#77
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Quoting: GenXHockey
But can you? The only player with more points than kerfoot is Kessel. He can't play centre or kill penalties. You also don't know what their contract asks are. Wild certainly aren't looking to hand out more than 1 year in term. If those players will willing to sign with the wild on their terms wouldn't they already be under contract?


Rodrigues milano ZAR Statsny are all better options. It’s not just about points. If it were, I really wouldn’t be betting on Kerfoot replicating his production from last where the leafs shot nearly12% 5v5 while Kerfoot was on the ice
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Aug. 20, 2022 at 3:26 p.m.
#78
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Quoting: GMBL
I was talking about Kerfoot not Fiala. Guerin said that signing Fiala wasn't going to work, he essentially said they couldn't afford him, of course they could have made moves to accommodate his new cap but long-story short Minn couldn't afford him, and in an ideal situation where Sandin signs, the Leafs can’t afford Kerfoot. That doesn't mean that the Leafs won't get good value for Kerfoot, or a reduced value. They certainly won't be adding anything to dump him though, since at worst case they waive him to become compliant and someone will claim him. Kerfoot has a M-NTC and not a lot of teams have cap space, so it's no surprise that there hasn't been a trade IF he is being shopped. On waivers though anyone team who wants can claim him, and I'm sure Arz would love his contract, and Chi, and Ana would too since they could flip him around deadline.


They haven't put him on the market yet because I imagine they are waiting until they figure out what they have for capspace or for when training camp starts. There will be teams who get injuries early and need Kerfoot or Holl and will offer more later on
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Aug. 20, 2022 at 3:27 p.m.
#79
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Quoting: RazWild
I wouldn't give up a B-level prospect for Kerfoot, vacuum or no vacuum. Period.

He's good, be he's not that good.

Bjorkstrand is a better player than Kerfoot, and he only got back a 3rd and 4th round picks in next year's draft.

Beckman as a B-level prospect is probably worth about a mid 2nd rounder right now.

I'm not seeing the reason why Minnesota should be giving up that good of a prospect for a player that should return less than Bjorkstrand did.

And Kerfoot doesn't do a damn thing for the Wild that both Hartman and Eriksson-Ek don't already do. So acquiring him would be redundant anyway. I'd rather keep Beckman, and use that cap space on something else.


Bjorkstrand returned less than Kerfoot would lol, you don't look at a discounted trade and then try to make comparisons based off of the players' values while ignoring the situation. Also, the market changes during different stages of the hockey calendar.

CBJ had to shed cap, and their only options were Voracek, Nyquist, or another player with 4M+ cap hit. They probably would have had to attach significant assets to the previous two guys just because the size of their cap hits as we saw with Pacioretty. So giving up Bjorkstrand for picks was probably the best option for them at the time. Had they waited, perhaps there would have been better options, maybe worse. JK just got it done with early, but that doesn't mean that other GMs will get worse/better deals doing the same or similar thing now, or towards the beginning of the season.
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Aug. 20, 2022 at 3:27 p.m.
#80
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Quoting: GenXHockey
Beckmann is worth a 2nd rounder but a 50 point nhler isn't worth anything? Lol.

No Beckmann is probably somewhere in the neighbourhood of a 4th.


I never once said Kerfoot wasn't worth anything, I just said he wasn't worth a B-level prospect. Get over it.

Again, Bjorkstrand got a 3rd and a 4th. That's a damn sight less than a B-level prospect.

And as far as a B-level prospect being worth a 4th....

Lol

Now you're just being pissy.
Aug. 20, 2022 at 3:29 p.m.
#81
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Quoting: The_Rocket
Rodrigues milano ZAR Statsny are all better options. It’s not just about points. If it were, I really wouldn’t be betting on Kerfoot replicating his production from last where the leafs shot nearly12% 5v5 while Kerfoot was on the ice


Better at what then? Kerfoots defensive game and pk are where he does best.

My point was merely that wild has had plenty of time to sign those players but have not. Maybe there are other issues we don't see.
Aug. 20, 2022 at 3:29 p.m.
#82
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Quoting: Mr_Gardoki
Dude, LAST season your depth scoring was OK. You LOST Mikheyev and Spezza. That's now caused an issue. Moving Kerfoot makes it worse.


And Spezza was one of the oldest players in the league. Guys like Robertson, Aube Kubel, Jarnkrock and Guadette can make up the difference. Engvall, Steeves, Anderson etc etc. Making up the 30 goals we lost with Mikheyev and Spezza won't be very hard. Funny how amazing Spezza and Mikheyev were now that they are gone.
Aug. 20, 2022 at 3:29 p.m.
#83
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Quoting: Mr_Gardoki
So me saying that losing him hurts means I think he's worthless? Hmmm. Very interesting take.


Answering questions isn't your thing eh?
Aug. 20, 2022 at 3:31 p.m.
#84
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Quoting: GenXHockey
Better at what then? Kerfoots defensive game and pk are where he does best.

My point was merely that wild has had plenty of time to sign those players but have not. Maybe there are other issues we don't see.


All four are better at driving play, ZAR is better defensively, and Statsny bring experience. Most importantly, you don’t have to give up anything to get them and all will come in at a more affordable cap hit.
Aug. 20, 2022 at 3:34 p.m.
#85
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Quoting: Logan_Ollivier
They haven't put him on the market yet because I imagine they are waiting until they figure out what they have for capspace or for when training camp starts. There will be teams who get injuries early and need Kerfoot or Holl and will offer more later on


Yeah, there's no point in them trying to get ahead of it when they don't have many trade options at this time anyways, and if Sandin does sign it would change their cap situation. They could also suffer injuries themselves leading them to need either guy, so best option is just waiting.
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Aug. 20, 2022 at 3:36 p.m.
#86
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Quoting: RazWild
I never once said Kerfoot wasn't worth anything, I just said he wasn't worth a B-level prospect. Get over it.

Again, Bjorkstrand got a 3rd and a 4th. That's a damn sight less than a B-level prospect.

And as far as a B-level prospect being worth a 4th....

Lol

Now you're just being pissy.


No, that's about the trade value. I would expect the same value of leafs prospects as well.
Aug. 20, 2022 at 3:38 p.m.
#87
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Quoting: GMBL
Bjorkstrand returned less than Kerfoot would lol, you don't look at a discounted trade and then try to make comparisons based off of the players' values while ignoring the situation. Also, the market changes during different stages of the hockey calendar.

CBJ had to shed cap, and their only options were Voracek, Nyquist, or another player with 4M+ cap hit. They probably would have had to attach significant assets to the previous two guys just because the size of their cap hits as we saw with Pacioretty. So giving up Bjorkstrand for picks was probably the best option for them at the time. Had they waited, perhaps there would have been better options, maybe worse. JK just got it done with early, but that doesn't mean that other GMs will get worse/better deals doing the same or similar thing now, or towards the beginning of the season.


Bjorkstrand and Kerfoot have near identical statistics over the course of their careers. Both statistically and analytically Bjorkstrand has been the better player of the two, over that timespan.

That is absolutely a viable comparable.

The Leafs are literally $1.4M over the cap right now. They cannot go into the season without moving/waiving/buying out someone before it starts.

That's not theory. It's fact.

Dubas is in exactly the same scenario Jarmo was. It doesn't matter if was a month ago, or a week ago.

Kerfoot is NOT getting back more than what Bjorkstrand got.
Aug. 20, 2022 at 3:39 p.m.
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Quoting: The_Rocket
All four are better at driving play, ZAR is better defensively, and Statsny bring experience. Most importantly, you don’t have to give up anything to get them and all will come in at a more affordable cap hit.


If you can fit them all under the cap, then that doesn't matter too much, and if they aren't making league minimum, they are being paid more than Kerfoot in real dollars.

Not every player is interested in playing for every team, if there are better options for a team than Kerfoot, then they probably won't inquire about him or trade for him, but we can't just sit here and pretend to truly know what each team has for FA/trade options and which are better/which they think are better.

Them being better play drives also doesn't matter unless that's the reason for their potential interest in Kerfoot.
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Aug. 20, 2022 at 3:40 p.m.
#89
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Quoting: The_Rocket
All four are better at driving play, ZAR is better defensively, and Statsny bring experience. Most importantly, you don’t have to give up anything to get them and all will come in at a more affordable cap hit.


Then why do off-season trades happen? Washington gave up a 2nd for Brown rather than go for your "cheaper better options".

I don't expect kerfoot to return much in this stage. But the idea that leafs need to give up picks to move him is ridiculous.
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Aug. 20, 2022 at 3:42 p.m.
#90
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Quoting: RazWild
Bjorkstrand and Kerfoot have near identical statistics over the course of their careers. Both statistically and analytically Bjorkstrand has been the better player of the two, over that timespan.

That is absolutely a viable comparable.

The Leafs are literally $1.4M over the cap right now. They cannot go into the season without moving/waiving/buying out someone before it starts.

That's not theory. It's fact.

Dubas is in exactly the same scenario Jarmo was. It doesn't matter if was a month ago, or a week ago.

Kerfoot is NOT getting back more than what Bjorkstrand got.


No he is getting less. I would just as happily take a 3rd or 4th for him. I did this to even up contracts and value.
Aug. 20, 2022 at 3:47 p.m.
#91
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Quoting: GenXHockey
No, that's about the trade value. I would expect the same value of leafs prospects as well.


Right, so...

Roni Hirvonen, Fraser Minten and Matthew Knies are all worth only a 4th round pick in value. Gotcha, good to know.

I'll keep that in mind for future trades for leafs prospects then.
Aug. 20, 2022 at 3:53 p.m.
#92
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Quoting: GMBL
Yeah, there's no point in them trying to get ahead of it when they don't have many trade options at this time anyways, and if Sandin does sign it would change their cap situation. They could also suffer injuries themselves leading them to need either guy, so best option is just waiting.


Injuries will without a doubt happen
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Aug. 20, 2022 at 3:55 p.m.
#93
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Quoting: RazWild
Right, so...

Roni Hirvonen, Fraser Minten and Matthew Knies are all worth only a 4th round pick in value. Gotcha, good to know.

I'll keep that in mind for future trades for leafs prospects then.


Knies and Hirvonen are b prospects? Hirvonen is probably worth a 3rd currently and knies is a top prospect. I don't think Toronto has any prospects worth more than a 3rd other than knies, Robertson or niemela.

I would compare beckman to abramov.
Aug. 20, 2022 at 3:57 p.m.
#94
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Edited Aug. 20, 2022 at 4:04 p.m.
Quoting: RazWild
Bjorkstrand and Kerfoot have near identical statistics over the course of their careers. Both statistically and analytically Bjorkstrand has been the better player of the two, over that timespan.

That is absolutely a viable comparable.

The Leafs are literally $1.4M over the cap right now. They cannot go into the season without moving/waiving/buying out someone before it starts.

That's not theory. It's fact.

Dubas is in exactly the same scenario Jarmo was. It doesn't matter if was a month ago, or a week ago.

Kerfoot is NOT getting back more than what Bjorkstrand got.


1.4m is more than half of Kerfoot's cap hit, while CBJ was over the cap by most of Bjorkstrand's. It's not the same scenario, because moving a 2m player as a cap dump is much easier than moving a 4 or 5m player. Holl is easier to move than Nyquist.

Comparing Bjorkstrand to Kerfoot here doesn't make sense because we aren't trying to figure out Kerfoot's value based on Bjorkstrand getting traded for his own. Comparing their reduced values doesn't make sense either because of what I previously mentioned. Kerfoot isn't the only option to be moved and neither was Bjorkstrand, so it's not the same position.

I already gave an example of Kapanen vs Johnsson and what they each returned going from the same team (so the exact same case), and even then there was a huge discrepancy because there are other factors than just two players being similars+a team needing cap.
Aug. 20, 2022 at 4:09 p.m.
#95
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Quoting: GenXHockey
Then why do off-season trades happen? Washington gave up a 2nd for Brown rather than go for your "cheaper better options".

I don't expect kerfoot to return much in this stage. But the idea that leafs need to give up picks to move him is ridiculous.


Everyone who isn't a leaf is always better than all Leaf players. It's the rules
Aug. 20, 2022 at 4:18 p.m.
#96
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I think that the problem with the multi-sided dialogue over this proposal arises because a lot of people don’t understand, or perhaps don’t recognize, the difference between a “cap dump” and a “cap casualty.” A “cap casualty” is a good player (i.e., a player performing to or exceeding his contract) whom a team decides to trade in order to achieve cap compliance or increased cap flexibility. Kevin Fiala and Oliver Bjorkstrand are the perfect examples of cap casualties. A “cap dump”, on the other hand, is a player who is seen as not worth his contract, or performing below it. Sean Monahan is the perfect example of a cap dump, for whom his team has to pay to move out. (Max Pacioretty can’t be used as a comparable precedent because WHO KNOWS what goes through the minds of people in the Las Vegas front office?)

All players have inherent or intrinsic value. That value may vary from team to team (i.e., one year of Travis Sanheim is worth more to a contending team like Los Angeles which needs a LhD than to a no-hoper like Montreal), but it exists nevertheless. Kerfoot has positive value because, as you pointed out earlier, he’s an excellent penalty killer and two-way forward and his contract is not an embarrassment like, for example, Brendan Gallagher’s is. Anyone who thinks that he’s a cap dump should ask themselves what Kerfoot would bring were the Maple Leafs able to hold onto him until the trade deadline and then marketed him then. Your point here is that Kerfoot’s value is decreased by context, not by his skill level.

Monahan was clearly a cap dump. But trading a player who is seen as underperforming his contract and surplus to his team’s needs when that team has a cap issue doesn’t mean that any transaction by such a team, or any other team, is a cap dump. Suppose for whatever reason the Calgary brass had decided to trade Andrew Mangiapane (who has essentially the same cap hit) for a first-round draft pick and a prospect, a la Kevin Fiala. Does the fact that the trade is made to give the team cap space make Mangiapane a cap dump? Of course not.

Some fans have contended here that there is a distinction between Bjorkstrand and Kerfoot, presumably based upon the difference in cap hits. Nonsense. Bjorkstrand got traded for a third and a fourth . . . clearly below his value and solely because Columbus needed cap room. Kerfoot isn’t as highly valuable a player as Bjorkstrand, but is being traded for the same reason while still perceived as having on-ice worth, so his trade value should be less than Bjorkstrand’s (say, a third OR a fourth, which is how you’ve valued Beckman), but still positive.

In short, not all moves made for cap compliance or flexibility are “dumps.” Some are just selling low.
Aug. 20, 2022 at 4:21 p.m.
#97
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
I think that the problem with the multi-sided dialogue over this proposal arises because a lot of people don’t understand, or perhaps don’t recognize, the difference between a “cap dump” and a “cap casualty.” A “cap casualty” is a good player (i.e., a player performing to or exceeding his contract) whom a team decides to trade in order to achieve cap compliance or increased cap flexibility. Kevin Fiala and Oliver Bjorkstrand are the perfect examples of cap casualties. A “cap dump”, on the other hand, is a player who is seen as not worth his contract, or performing below it. Sean Monahan is the perfect example of a cap dump, for whom his team has to pay to move out. (Max Pacioretty can’t be used as a comparable precedent because WHO KNOWS what goes through the minds of people in the Las Vegas front office?)

All players have inherent or intrinsic value. That value may vary from team to team (i.e., one year of Travis Sanheim is worth more to a contending team like Los Angeles which needs a LhD than to a no-hoper like Montreal), but it exists nevertheless. Kerfoot has positive value because, as you pointed out earlier, he’s an excellent penalty killer and two-way forward and his contract is not an embarrassment like, for example, Brendan Gallagher’s is. Anyone who thinks that he’s a cap dump should ask themselves what Kerfoot would bring were the Maple Leafs able to hold onto him until the trade deadline and then marketed him then. Your point here is that Kerfoot’s value is decreased by context, not by his skill level.

Monahan was clearly a cap dump. But trading a player who is seen as underperforming his contract and surplus to his team’s needs when that team has a cap issue doesn’t mean that any transaction by such a team, or any other team, is a cap dump. Suppose for whatever reason the Calgary brass had decided to trade Andrew Mangiapane (who has essentially the same cap hit) for a first-round draft pick and a prospect, a la Kevin Fiala. Does the fact that the trade is made to give the team cap space make Mangiapane a cap dump? Of course not.

Some fans have contended here that there is a distinction between Bjorkstrand and Kerfoot, presumably based upon the difference in cap hits. Nonsense. Bjorkstrand got traded for a third and a fourth . . . clearly below his value and solely because Columbus needed cap room. Kerfoot isn’t as highly valuable a player as Bjorkstrand, but is being traded for the same reason while still perceived as having on-ice worth, so his trade value should be less than Bjorkstrand’s (say, a third OR a fourth, which is how you’ve valued Beckman), but still positive.

In short, not all moves made for cap compliance or flexibility are “dumps.” Some are just selling low.


Think you just summed up my thoughts perfectly.
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Aug. 20, 2022 at 4:23 p.m.
#98
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Quoting: GenXHockey
Think you just summed up my thoughts perfectly.


Had a feeling I would. That's why I took the time to write.
Aug. 20, 2022 at 10:02 p.m.
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
Had a feeling I would. That's why I took the time to write.


Very well put good sir! And same here. After reading these back and forth comments I was going to chime in but you took the words out of my mouth! The only thing I would add is Jarmo did not NEED to trade Bjorkstrand he could have traded Nyquist or Vorachek they just would have needed too add assets to do so (which I personally would have done amd was suprised he didnt after signing Johnny hockey because you would think he would want too ice the best team possible). Point is Jarmo CHOSE to take less rather than give up assets to move a more undesirable contract and every other gm knows it as well and there for wont effect other players trade values.

Also, @razwild said that Bjorkstrand went for 3rd and 4th and has more value than kerfoot (which I fully agree with) however, apparently Beckman who is not a proven commodity at the highest level is worth more than Bjorkstrand?
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Aug. 20, 2022 at 10:16 p.m.
#100
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Quoting: GenXHockey
Think you just summed up my thoughts perfectly.


Me too! Your ACGM has certainly created a lot of back and forth banter which is a good thing considering what cf users usually post. This is the best acgm I've seen on here in a very long time! Thanks for making and posting it! Also, go leafs go and go flames go!
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