Good comparison. I didn’t really like the Suzuki extension either, but I think age was a factor there.

What you’re calling Suzuki’s breakout year happened when he was 21, so there was an expectation that he would continue to grow his game. (So far I don’t think he has – his 2021-22 numbers were pretty much pro-rated 2021 numbers – but they didn’t know that when they signed him.) Thompson’s breakout year happened when he was 24. That makes a big difference. It’s possible that he’ll continue to improve, but I don’t think there’s anywhere near as much expectation of that as there was with Suzuki.

Thompson has what 14 career points before this year? He was a fringe nhl player before this year. If he reverts to anywhere near that this contract sucks

It's also a point that Tage's contract is buying more UFA years compared to Suzuki buying RFA years.

Tage was playing on the 4th line with Vladimir Sobotka before this year in Krueger's defensive system.

He's a much different player in Granato's high event system playing with actual talent. Only way he's reverting back to that is if we hire Krueger back as HC.

Man I was expecting this comment section to be like every other Buffalo thread and CapFriendly doesn't disappoint.

It's wild that Norris, Suzuki, and Thomas had more expensive contracts signed after one big year, and I can hardly find the same condescending comments on those signings. Tage signs for less money and term, and yet this is getting blasted by people who haven't watched a second of Sabres hockey in the last decade. It's a calculated risk, not the ghost of Chiarelli at the reins.

There are some key differences between those each of those three and Thompson, and yeah that's why Tage has gotten less, but as always context really doesn't matter here.

If Tage played for Toronto this contract would be called a steal

Sure thing sharkie.

Gasp, I literally said oh my gawd outloud. Not a drama queen at all lol

Your ego is so fragile haha, take care champ

So got ya, we will ignore always ignore the previous season, and future potential production when offering player contracts.

That's a grand idea....

....wait no, it's the opposite of that.

Oh gasp, oh my lord, how will I carry on with the day.

you:

Auston Matthews' contract was voted as being bad by this website.

Take your bs 'Toronto gets all the love' crap elsewhere

Suzuki 19-20: 0.58
Suzuki 20-21: 0.73
Suzuki 21-22: 0.74

Thompson 17-18: 0.22
Thompson 18-19: 0.19
Thompson 20-21: 0.37
Thompson 21-22: 0.87

Suzuki has a higher floor than Thompson and is much better defensively. I trust the Suzuki contract way more than I do the Thompson contract considering he wasn't great in the past few years prior, had an insane shooting percentage, and broke out at a later age

This year yes he was better offensively, Suzuki better defensively. Years before, Suzuki was miles better

Why are you counting 21-22 year for Suzuki? He got his contract before this season. We only had 2 years of data for him.

A 15 shooting % is insane? Since when?

Tavares was voted as a great contract lmao.

Too much risk here for me... If he regresses Buffalo's rebuild just got extended even longer. If he had another good season how much more would he make?

That's because it is. Don't let a s% dip fool you he scored significantly fewer goals than expected recently

Yeah hard to get behind this one, he had a breakout year last year but was pretty unknown before that. Gonna have to keep improving for this to be worth it

Very risky contract... seems desperate to me. Over 7.14M after only one good season... how much are they actually saving by signing him now instead of letting him prove himself for another season? On the other hand if he regresses you get another Jeff Skinner like contract.

At least Thompson’s cap hit is almost $2M less than Skinner’s.

The difference with the Skinner contract was that they knew exactly what they were getting when they extended him. He ran hold and cold for 8 years in Carolina, so it shouldn’t have surprised anybody that he fell off after his 40-goal season, nor that he rebounded later.

Thompson could turn out to be like that, but it’s also possible that we saw the real Tage Thompson last season, and he will be able to deliver consistently. The problem is, we don’t know.

I agree. I just feel this is an extremely risky contract to hand out after one season. Even if he does play the way he did last season this contract isn't really a discount; he'd have to play better than he did last season, especially defensively, for this contract to be a bargain.

Does anyone know of any career progression's that factor in body size?

I've heard many times that bigger players take longer to develop; but not sure how that can be quantified.

My take is that Tage Thompson could be what we expect from a guy like Quinton Byfield, where it takes a season or two extra to "put it all together".

I think this is a big risk. I don't see him as a 1C but he is getting paid like one. His jump was too steep. He was basically a fringe player last year and now they pay him like he is their future 1C after 1 great season

Many great comments.

First, in general big players do take longer to develop.
Second, Thompson started demonstrating his talent as early as 2018-'19 when he scored 14 goals in 27 AHL games over two seasons including playoffs.
Third, Krueger was a terrible coach. Miller, Skinner, Okposo, Sheary, Rodrigues, Montour, et al had career worse seasons playing for him.
Fourth, when Granato became head coach at the end of 2020-'21 Tage was put on a line with Mittelstadt and Asplund and responded with 7 goals over the final 20 games.
Fifth, Tuch was a huge factor to driving both Skinner and Tage to higher levels. Pre-Tuch Skinner and Tage were on pace for 25 and 30 goals, post-Tuch that jumped to 40 and 48 respectively.
Six, while his shooting percentage improved last year, in the previous seasons he was aiming at the goalies crest. This past season many of his shots were wide or hit iron, because he was aiming for the corners, LOL he learned how to score.
Finally, since this an extension, think of this as an 8 year contract. $1,400,000 for the first year then $50,000,000 for the next seven $6,425,000 for eight years will appear to be a bargain if he can average 30 goals for the next 5 years.

MY BIG BOLD PREDICTION FOR NEXT YEAR, WE WILL THINK $50,000,000 IS A BARGAIN

EDIT:
After Kyrou signed his $65 million ($8.125 AAV) contract, this is looking like a bargain.
They are the same age, and drafted the same year.
Jordan played with Schenn, Thomas, Tarasenko, Buchnevich and O’Reilly to help him reach his career high 27 goals.
Thompson's contract is looking good from where I am sitting after scoring a career high 38 goals.