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Goat head is back

Created by: GetTuched
Team: 2023-24 Buffalo Sabres
Initial Creation Date: Aug. 31, 2022
Published: Aug. 31, 2022
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Free Agent Signings
RESERVE LISTYEARSCAP HIT
2$950,000
2$950,000
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
3$2,250,000
6$4,000,000
1$775,000
1$775,000
1$775,000
1$775,000
2$825,000
6$4,250,000
1$775,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
4$6,000,000
1$2,000,000
Trades
1.
BUF
  1. Demko, Thatcher
  2. Pettersson, Elias
Additional Details:
At 2023 NHL Draft
VAN
  1. Jokiharju, Henri
  2. Luukkonen, Ukko-Pekka [RFA Rights]
  3. Östlund, Noah
  4. Rosén, Isak
  5. 2023 1st round pick (BUF)
  6. 2024 1st round pick (BUF)
Additional Details:
2023 1st is 10th overall
2024 1st is top 5 protected
2.
BUF
  1. 2024 5th round pick (EDM)
EDM
  1. Portillo, Erik [Reserve List]
Additional Details:
Before August 15th when Portillo would become a UFA
3.
BUF
  1. 2023 3rd round pick (SEA)
Additional Details:
Change of scenery, Jason Botterill connection
4.
BUF
  1. Cizikas, Casey
  2. 2023 1st round pick (NYI)
NYI
  1. Olofsson, Victor
  2. 2023 3rd round pick (SEA)
Additional Details:
Draft day trade, Sabres select Quentin Musty with the 16th overall pick
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2023
Logo of the NYI
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the PHI
Logo of the VGK
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
2024
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
2025
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$84,000,000$71,547,856$0$4,145,000$12,452,144
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$855,833$855,833 (Performance Bonus$32,500$32K)
LW, RW
RFA - 2
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$7,350,000$7,350,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
RW, LW
RFA - 2
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$9,000,000$9,000,000
LW, RW
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$7,142,857$7,142,857
C
UFA - 7
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$4,750,000$4,750,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$412,500$412K)
C, LW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$4,000,000$4,000,000
C, LW
UFA - 7
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$918,333$918,333 (Performance Bonus$1,000,000$1M)
C
RFA - 3
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$2,250,000$2,250,000
LW, C
RFA - 1
Logo of the New York Islanders
$2,500,000$2,500,000
C
UFA - 4
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$2,000,000$2,000,000
RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$4,250,000$4,250,000
LD
UFA - 7
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$6,000,000$6,000,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
UFA - 3
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$916,667$916,667 (Performance Bonus$1,850,000$2M)
LD/RD
UFA - 1
$6,000,000$6,000,000
RD
UFA - 8
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$1,800,000$1,800,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$687,500$687,500
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$950,000$950,000
LD
RFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$1,850,000$1,850,000
LD/RD
RFA - 1
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$775,000$775,000
LW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$825,000$825,000
RW
RFA - 2

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Aug. 31, 2022 at 9:25 p.m.
#51
Ex Nucks fan
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Quoting: Shibbal18
Yes, thats not foolish, also i gave you the 30 and 40 game standard. You cherry picked specific spots where he would look the best. 5v5 numbers against 16 other goalies, thats just as foolish as including a goalie with 19 games


Forgive me for using the most reliable stats. A STARTING goaltender should play the majority of a season am I wrong? 50 games is 60% of a season, very reasonable for a 1A to play. 5v5 is much better for comparing goaltenders. They can't control how many penalties their team takes and how good the penalty kill is. I am comparing individual performances. Don't come at me with that nonsense.
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Aug. 31, 2022 at 9:44 p.m.
#52
Shibbal18
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Quoting: Juiceman
Forgive me for using the most reliable stats. A STARTING goaltender should play the majority of a season am I wrong? 50 games is 60% of a season, very reasonable for a 1A to play. 5v5 is much better for comparing goaltenders. They can't control how many penalties their team takes and how good the penalty kill is. I am comparing individual performances. Don't come at me with that nonsense.


Goalies are the teams best penslty killer, seems pretty pertinent. Injuries can keep a goalie from playing over 50 games, doesnt mean theyre not a starter
Aug. 31, 2022 at 9:58 p.m.
#53
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Quoting: Juiceman
Goals against average is not the most important. A goalie could have a higher save percentage and higher goals against average than another goalie. Goals against average is more of a team statistic. Goals saved above expected is an individual statistic. Save % is good and Demko is 3rd in even strength save percentage. Those goalie cards are not as reliable as going deep into their actual statistics.


The goalie cards are a lot better than using sv% which doesnt take quality of shot into account at all. Theyre also a lot better than using goals above average which if i understand it correctly is just goals against average compared to league average and goals against average might be the single worst stat in all of hockey.
He does have goals saved above expected. Theyre just divided up by quality of shot to get an even deeper look into the goalie as opposed to a blanket number. He also splits up their starts and if i remember correctly bad start is -2gsax a quality start is a positive gsax and an excellent start is at least 2gsax.
And like all of his numbers he expresses them in percentile form to help better understand where leaguewide a player stands in any given metric.
Aug. 31, 2022 at 10:18 p.m.
#54
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Edited Aug. 31, 2022 at 10:25 p.m.
Quoting: Shibbal18
Goalies are the teams best penslty killer, seems pretty pertinent. Injuries can keep a goalie from playing over 50 games, doesnt mean theyre not a starter


If a goalie has an injury, you can overlook it. A goaltender cannot always save a team's awful penalty kill. If a goalie has good 5v5 stats and bad PK stats, its likely because the PK SUCKS
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Aug. 31, 2022 at 10:21 p.m.
#55
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Quoting: UBS_ARENA
The goalie cards are a lot better than using sv% which doesnt take quality of shot into account at all. Theyre also a lot better than using goals above average which if i understand it correctly is just goals against average compared to league average and goals against average might be the single worst stat in all of hockey.
He does have goals saved above expected. Theyre just divided up by quality of shot to get an even deeper look into the goalie as opposed to a blanket number. He also splits up their starts and if i remember correctly bad start is -2gsax a quality start is a positive gsax and an excellent start is at least 2gsax.
And like all of his numbers he expresses them in percentile form to help better understand where leaguewide a player stands in any given metric.


You are thinking of goals saved above average which I agree is a useless stat. Goals save above expected on the other hand is one of the best stats for evaluating a goaltender. It takes into consideration quality of shots. It is the stat that really separates the contender goalies from pretender goalies. A goaltender could have a high save percentage because of good defense, but a goaltender with a higher GSAx is more valued due to individual performance

My problem about comparing league wide without using any boundaries is that I don't think games played is taken into consideration. A goalie can play 1 game in a season and get a shutout and will be at the top of every metric. Thats not reliable is it?
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Sep. 1, 2022 at 6:35 a.m.
#56
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My question is just why? BUF doesn't need Petterson....at all.

Demko would be nice to have, but as others have said, the package needs to be different. Plus, UPL has put up better numbers in his limited action.

Demko's 1st 10 NHL games: .909 sv%
UPL's first 13: .913

Just give UPL some time and the trade will be completely not worth it for both parties involved. If you want a goalie NOW, go throw a boat load at Oettinger in an offer sheet.
Sep. 1, 2022 at 8:10 a.m.
#57
Craig Laughlin Fan
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I think Washington might be in the hunt for Portillo if he chooses not to sign in Buffalo, as he'll face less competition in Washington against Stevenson, Gibson, Shepard, and Lindgren than he will against Skinner and Oliver Rodrigue. I could see the Caps paying a 4th and maybe another low round pick in order to acquire the chance to sign him.
Sep. 1, 2022 at 11:37 a.m.
#58
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Quoting: worldwidesensei
My question is just why? BUF doesn't need Petterson....at all.

Demko would be nice to have, but as others have said, the package needs to be different. Plus, UPL has put up better numbers in his limited action.

Demko's 1st 10 NHL games: .909 sv%
UPL's first 13: .913

Just give UPL some time and the trade will be completely not worth it for both parties involved. If you want a goalie NOW, go throw a boat load at Oettinger in an offer sheet.


Using first 10 games to compare a goaltender is a big head scratcher...
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Sep. 1, 2022 at 4:12 p.m.
#59
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Quoting: Juiceman
You are thinking of goals saved above average which I agree is a useless stat. Goals save above expected on the other hand is one of the best stats for evaluating a goaltender. It takes into consideration quality of shots. It is the stat that really separates the contender goalies from pretender goalies. A goaltender could have a high save percentage because of good defense, but a goaltender with a higher GSAx is more valued due to individual performance

My problem about comparing league wide without using any boundaries is that I don't think games played is taken into consideration. A goalie can play 1 game in a season and get a shutout and will be at the top of every metric. Thats not reliable is it?


It seems you didnt understand a word i wrote. I touched on 3 different stats all of which you mentioned as stats trying to prove demko is top 5.
You mentioned goals above average which is a horrible stat.
You mentioned save percentage which is better but not very accurate.
And you mentioned goals saved above expected which is what the entire 2nd paragraph was about. Jfresh does even better than just giving a total GSAx number, he breaks it down by quality of shot. So using demko as an example, he is in the 82nd percentile of GSAx on medium danger shots. And hes in the 74th percentile of GSAx on high danger shots. And hes in the 71st percentile of GSAx on low danger shots.
Sep. 1, 2022 at 4:14 p.m.
#60
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Quoting: UBS_ARENA
It seems you didnt understand a word i wrote. I touched on 3 different stats all of which you mentioned as stats trying to prove demko is top 5.
You mentioned goals above average which is a horrible stat.
You mentioned save percentage which is better but not very accurate.
And you mentioned goals saved above expected which is what the entire 2nd paragraph was about. Jfresh does even better than just giving a total GSAx number, he breaks it down by quality of shot. So using demko as an example, he is in the 82nd percentile of GSAx on medium danger shots. And hes in the 74th percentile of GSAx on high danger shots. And hes in the 71st percentile of GSAx on low danger shots.


You still fail to take into account that Jfresh accounts for ALL goalies. Even those who play like 1-2 games. Using percentile when you have goalies only playing 1-2 games is misleading

Do me a favour and find Spencer Martin's stats from this season

0.950 save percentage. One of the highest in the league, likely 99-100 percentile. He played 3 games...
Sep. 1, 2022 at 4:18 p.m.
#61
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Quoting: Juiceman
You still fail to take into account that Jfresh accounts for ALL goalies. Even those who play like 1-2 games. Using percentile when you have goalies only playing 1-2 games is misleading

Do me a favour and find Spencer Martin's stats from this season

0.950 save percentage. One of the highest in the league, likely 99-100 percentile. He played 3 games...


Thats not true. Idk what the number is but Jfresh has a minimum amount of minutes played bc he needs to have enough minutes otherwise you end up with martin spencer results.
Now youre just making things up
Sep. 1, 2022 at 4:19 p.m.
#62
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Quoting: UBS_ARENA
Thats not true. Idk what the number is but Jfresh has a minimum amount of minutes played bc he needs to have enough minutes otherwise you end up with martin spencer results.
Now youre just making things up


Show me then I will believe you.
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Sep. 1, 2022 at 4:34 p.m.
#63
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Quoting: Juiceman
Show me then I will believe you.


Show you what spencer martin doesnt even have a jfresh card bc he doesnt have enough minutes played. There are 67 goalies who had enough minutes played this season for Jfresh.
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Sep. 1, 2022 at 4:35 p.m.
#64
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Quoting: UBS_ARENA
Show you what spencer martin doesnt even have a jfresh card bc he doesnt have enough minutes played. There are 67 goalies who had enough minutes played this season for Jfresh.


Show me where it states Jfresh's card has a minimum minute count and what it is
Sep. 1, 2022 at 4:47 p.m.
#65
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Quoting: Juiceman
Show me where it states Jfresh's card has a minimum minute count and what it is


So this is the first thing i could find mentioning a minute count. Idk what they all are but he doesnt hide it he says it all the time.



This is after a tweet he put out with makars card but the PK section said NA
Sep. 1, 2022 at 4:49 p.m.
#66
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Quoting: UBS_ARENA
So this is the first thing i could find mentioning a minute count. Idk what they all are but he doesnt hide it he says it all the time.



This is after a tweet he put out with makars card but the PK section said NA


That is for PK for a skater...
Sep. 1, 2022 at 4:51 p.m.
#67
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Quoting: Juiceman
Show me where it states Jfresh's card has a minimum minute count and what it is


As for goalies he doesnt have like a chart or anything with his minimum thresholds but so far after going through most of the low played goalies the lowest i could find so far was filip gustavsson who played 18 games.
Sep. 1, 2022 at 4:52 p.m.
#68
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Quoting: Juiceman
That is for PK for a skater...


Yes im aware he doesnt have a chart with his thresholds.
Sep. 1, 2022 at 4:54 p.m.
#69
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Quoting: Juiceman
That is for PK for a skater...


Aaron dell played 12 games this season and jfresh doesnt have 21-22 stats for him
Sep. 1, 2022 at 11:00 p.m.
#70
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Quoting: Juiceman
Using first 10 games to compare a goaltender is a big head scratcher...


It's obviously a small sample size, and doesn't hold much weight.

I'm just doing it to illustrate the timeline that UPL is on.

Demko:
Age 22 1GP
23 9 GP
24 27GP
25 35GP
26 64GP

UPL:
Age 21 4GP
Age 22 9GP
Age 23 ...more GP
Age 24 ....backup
Age 25.....64 GP?

That's UPL's timeline. I don't think BUF is a serious contender this year or next....but the following year? Yes.
Sep. 1, 2022 at 11:03 p.m.
#71
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Quoting: worldwidesensei
It's obviously a small sample size, and doesn't hold much weight.

I'm just doing it to illustrate the timeline that UPL is on.

Demko:
Age 22 1GP
23 9 GP
24 27GP
25 35GP
26 64GP

UPL:
Age 21 4GP
Age 22 9GP
Age 23 ...more GP
Age 24 ....backup
Age 25.....64 GP?

That's UPL's timeline. I don't think BUF is a serious contender this year or next....but the following year? Yes.


You can't really compare career projections with goalies as they are all over the place. Demko is however having a very similar career path as Ilya Sorokin and Igor Shesterkin. That doesn't mean UPL is having a better career path than them
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Sep. 2, 2022 at 1:02 a.m.
#72
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Quoting: Juiceman
You can't really compare career projections with goalies as they are all over the place. Demko is however having a very similar career path as Ilya Sorokin and Igor Shesterkin. That doesn't mean UPL is having a better career path than them


I never said better. That's just a typical timeline goalies take. They aren't really "all over the place", most goalies become starters (if they reach that point at all) between ages 25-28.

They play a few games here and there, then become the backup for a season or two and if they are good enough, then they become the starter. That's not really "all over the place".

And how is Demko's similar to Sorokin and Igor though?

Igor played 50+ games in a season after 2 years, 47GP.
Ilya played 50+ games in a season after 1 year, 22 GP.
Demko played 50+ games in a season after 4 years, 72GP.

One of those is not like the other. That's why I was using Demko to compare with UPL's timeline.
 
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