Yup, obviously, and if youre getting rid of a 21 year old center that went 3rd overall, thats not good sign.

Montreal had unused LTIR space that they would have lost anyways, and there might not have been a move that made sense to use it. So in terms of year 1, a 2 year bridge deal at 2.XX would have ended up being the same for the sake of calculating the salary cap as the deal they signed.

There is very little appreciable downside to this contract. If he doesn't improve, he will be overpaid by about 1M next season compared to what a 2 year bridge deal would have had him at. After that, a buyout in 2024 costs an average of 525k per season for 4 seasons, in 2025 it costs an 30k and then 666k. That isn't me saying he will be a buyout candidate, but people need to take into account how generous U26 buyouts are for the team. That's part of the risk assessment for these deals.

The most comparable player to Dach is Jesperi Kotkaniemi. You can argue about which one you think is better, but the parallels are there. Both are 3rd overall draft picks who were arguably brought into the NHL too soon and didn’t work out with the teams that drafted them, but coming off their entry-level contracts at age 21, they were still young enough to make another team think that there’s a good chance a change of scenery would unleash the potential they showed as high draft picks.

While both Montreal and Carolina are paying for some of that as-yet-unrealized potential, this contract seems much more sensible than Kotkaniemi’s, which is a significantly higher AAV and double the term. If he starts playing more like a typical 3rd overall pick (I consider Stutzle, Heiskanen and Dubois typical – I’d argue that Drouin and Galchenyuk are offset by Draisaitl and Huberdeau), then Dach’s next 4 years after this contract are going to cost a lot more than the last 4 years of Kotkaniemi’s contract, but that may never happen, and if it does, you could say it would be a nice problem to have. It may not be fair to compare Dach’s contract with Kotkaniemi’s because the offer sheet created a different scenario so Montreal was in a better negotiating position with Dach, but if you believe that Dach still has that potential, I think this contract is a good balance of risk versus potential reward.

This contract waits out most of Montreal's bad contracts, and the rise in the salary cap. When the contract expires, Montreal will also know exactly what they have in Dach, and if he is a star, they will have the cap flexibility to re-sign him at 1st line money. This contract seems like more a commitment to develop Dach into an NHL star than it is an attempt at getting a bargain on Dach. A big center like Dach is going to take some time to develop. Even if he figures it out eventually, this contract isn't long enough to ever become a major bargain.

With Kotkaniemi, the player would have been idiotic not to sign that with how they were trending. With that said, Carolina bought up 5 UFA years. They can still take advantage of the 1/3rd buyout as late as the 2026 off season. Which would result in an average cap penalty of only 708k. Unlike the Dach contract, if Kotkaniemi who is also a big center puts it together, the contract has enough term that he will be an extreme bargain. They have the first four years of the contract to figure out if that is going to happen. Otherwise, they can buy him out with a very manageable penalty. It wasn't a bad risk to take. Even if Kotkaniemi only becomes a middle 6 40 point C, as a UFA that's a 4+ million dollar player right now under the 82.5M cap. If the cap escalates to 100M+ once the COVID escrow is paid off, a good productive 3C could easily cost 6M. I think there is a reasonable chance that even if Kotkaniemi never becomes a star, the contract ends up being fine because of the escalating salary cap.

It's hilarious that this signing has a far better percentage of up votes than the Kyrou signing. It's CF at its finest.

Less term and way less AAV. Both deals are high risk high reward, but Kyrou has more risk

You simply cannot be serious with this.

Wait, you didn't know that Dach is just as good as Kyrou?

Kyrou has more risk to end up as a bad contract because of the term and AAV. Dach has to be a 3rd line center and it's a fair contract. Kyrou has to be a 1st line player in order to live up to his contract. Considering he's had 1 PPG season, there's a lot of risk to that.

Haha yeah..... one PPG season out of one full season. How many should he have? Kyrou is already playing at a 1st line level and has more ceiling room to grow. Dach has been a major disappointment and has already played two full seasons. I'm not saying Dach won't be good, but he has not come close to earning a 4x3.25. Kyrou is some measure of gamble, but aren't they all? Like I said, in a couple years, his contract will be the envy of the league.

These two contracts are so different, I don’t think it makes sense to compare them. The players’ situations are very different too. Dach was a 3rd overall draft pick and was probably brought into the NHL too soon because of it. He hasn’t yet come close to the potential that made him a high draft pick, but he’s only 21. As an early 2nd-round pick, Kyrou was brought along more slowly, and at age 24 he has already exceeded his expected potential. He could still get better too, but I think the expectation is that he'll maintain his current level of play.