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2022-23 NHL Pre-Season Discussion Thread #1: The Boys Are Back

Oct. 3, 2022 at 10:17 a.m.
#1201
Db1899
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Quoting: Juiceman
1 for 1? Absolutely not


Yeah that would be a terrible trade for the caps
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Oct. 3, 2022 at 10:22 a.m.
#1202
capsfan2121
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Quoting: Db1899
Yeah that would be a terrible trade for the caps


depends on if we resign him or not
Oct. 3, 2022 at 10:38 a.m.
#1203
HockeyScotty
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Quoting: yikes
Keep it alive. Keep it circulating. Don’t let these degenerates get away with anything.


Well that has to be the final bullet in the gun for Scott Smith to stay on; there is no excuse for this second attempt at lack of transparency about the funds.
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Oct. 3, 2022 at 10:45 a.m.
#1204
yikes
EklundCelebriniSmith
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Quoting: HockeyScotty
Well that has to be the final bullet in the gun for Scott Smith to stay on; there is no excuse for this second attempt at lack of transparency about the funds.


The fact they handed out the golds at womens worlds is still so comical you couldn’t write it.
Oct. 3, 2022 at 10:50 a.m.
#1205
mondo
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Cam Charron: What I learned working in an NHL front office and what I’m bringing back to writing

Great article if you have an Athletic subscription and offers a much more nuiased and logical interpretation on how analytics are used beyond if they're good or bad.

A general consensus of his article is that hockey teams use analytical metrics to identify players to help them win games, whereas public analytics try to determine if certain players are better than one another. Publicly available data doesn't have the depth to accurately derive a "catch-all" statistic.
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Oct. 3, 2022 at 11:08 a.m.
#1206
Juiceman
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Quoting: Db1899
Yeah that would be a terrible trade for the caps


It also makes no sense for Vancouver
Oct. 3, 2022 at 11:13 a.m.
#1207
pinslack
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Quoting: mondo
Cam Charron: What I learned working in an NHL front office and what I’m bringing back to writing

Great article if you have an Athletic subscription and offers a much more nuiased and logical interpretation on how analytics are used beyond if they're good or bad.

A general consensus of his article is that hockey teams use analytical metrics to identify players to help them win games, whereas public analytics try to determine if certain players are better than one another. Publicly available data doesn't have the depth to accurately derive a "catch-all" statistic.


What stroke me :

This is also a fundamental flaw of current, publicly available expected goals models: shots that are preceded by a pass are more than twice as likely to go in as those that aren’t. Omitting pre-shot movement data (not by choice) makes a huge impact on these measures, underrating or overrating certain players based on what is publicly available.
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Oct. 3, 2022 at 11:14 a.m.
#1208
yikes
EklundCelebriniSmith
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Quoting: mondo
Cam Charron: What I learned working in an NHL front office and what I’m bringing back to writing

Great article if you have an Athletic subscription and offers a much more nuiased and logical interpretation on how analytics are used beyond if they're good or bad.

A general consensus of his article is that hockey teams use analytical metrics to identify players to help them win games, whereas public analytics try to determine if certain players are better than one another. Publicly available data doesn't have the depth to accurately derive a "catch-all" statistic.


So in simpler terms, with your opinion (since you read the article), would you say it’s basically referencing guys like JFRESH, Dom, or let’s be less direct and WAR or EV/60 (etc) are useful stats but not necessarily weighed heavily if at all by teams as they have private statistics that better fit advanced analytics?
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Oct. 3, 2022 at 11:46 a.m.
#1209
Db1899
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The isles see Raty as a center , good thing they have their 3 + 4C locked up long term.



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Oct. 3, 2022 at 12:07 p.m.
#1210
LeafsFanForSomeReason
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Extension for O'Rielly?
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Oct. 3, 2022 at 12:09 p.m.
#1211
oilersguy
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Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason




Extension for O'Rielly?






I think they are talking about this
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Oct. 3, 2022 at 12:10 p.m.
#1212
LeafsFanForSomeReason
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Quoting: oilersguy




I think they are talking about this


Well that sucks.
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Oct. 3, 2022 at 12:17 p.m.
#1213
Bobcat205
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cautious optimism
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Quoting: oilersguy




I think they are talking about this


Don't scare us like that, Blues.
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Oct. 3, 2022 at 12:44 p.m.
#1214
aadoyle
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Quoting: Alfie11
Yes this will turn Matt Murray into Andrei Vasilevskiy for sure


I mean both won back to back cups so he really doesnt need to turn into him as his playoff self was him. Just needs to find himself again as all goalies at a point need some help even Vasi
Oct. 3, 2022 at 12:45 p.m.
#1215
aadoyle
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Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason




Extension for O'Rielly?


We have traded Tarasenko in order to go make room for some lesser guy we can overpay
Oct. 3, 2022 at 12:53 p.m.
#1216
aadoyle
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Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason




Yall ****es aint done lying for **** sakes

Just fire the whole Hockey Canada and start new

As knowing them there will be more secrets they be trying to hide
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Oct. 3, 2022 at 12:58 p.m.
#1217
NoVaSpartan
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Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason




side note: Scott Smith and Brian Cairo sound like AI generated code names the government gives for the spies they want to be caught, North by Northwest style
Oct. 3, 2022 at 1:02 p.m.
#1218
Bobcat205
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Quoting: NoVaSpartan
side note: Scott Smith and Brian Cairo sound like AI generated code names the government gives for the spies they want to be caught, North by Northwest style


I think i've drafted somebody named Scott Smith in Be A GM once. It's just very generic.
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Oct. 3, 2022 at 1:05 p.m.
#1219
mondo
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Quoting: yikes
So in simpler terms, with your opinion (since you read the article), would you say it’s basically referencing guys like JFRESH, Dom, or let’s be less direct and WAR or EV/60 (etc) are useful stats but not necessarily weighed heavily if at all by teams as they have private statistics that better fit advanced analytics?


It is referencing them because a lot of people use Jfresh, Dom, EW, etc. to validate their opinions on players abilities. I'd say they're good for a reference point regarding casual viewing and player evaluation, but not good enough to be totally conclusive on a player's usefulness to a team. There's a lot we don't know because it's not available to us.

Also, personally, I feel like a lot of the public analytical guys have a sense of stubbornness when it comes to their specific modelling structures so this is a well deserved kick in the nuts.
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Oct. 3, 2022 at 1:11 p.m.
#1220
Bobcat205
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cautious optimism
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Quoting: mondo
It is referencing them because a lot of people use Jfresh, Dom, EW, etc. to validate their opinions on players abilities. I'd say they're good for a reference point regarding casual viewing and player evaluation, but not good enough to be totally conclusive on a player's usefulness to a team. There's a lot we don't know because it's not available to us.

Also, personally, I feel like a lot of the public analytical guys have a sense of stubbornness when it comes to their specific modelling structures so this is a well deserved kick in the nuts.


so in short

blue square man bad*

*compared to other ways of analytical thinking
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Oct. 3, 2022 at 1:19 p.m.
#1221
LeafsFanForSomeReason
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Jesus...

Digitally enhanced is whatever, but don't have ads that f*ckin move or change during play. My god.
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Oct. 3, 2022 at 1:21 p.m.
#1222
aadoyle
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Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason




Jesus...

Digitally enhanced is whatever, but don't have ads that f*ckin move or change during play. My god.


Probs will change every time the whistle is blown or commercial breaks

But if it is proven to be a distraction got a feeling it will be halted
Oct. 3, 2022 at 1:38 p.m.
#1223
pinslack
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Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason




A rapist fund 60% funded by the parents of young hockey players

So, for years, Hockey Canada admits implicitly that a rapist culture is part of the hockey culture in Canada
Oct. 3, 2022 at 1:47 p.m.
#1224
capsfan2121
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What other incidents have happened in the past with hockey canada
Oct. 3, 2022 at 2:08 p.m.
#1225
yikes
EklundCelebriniSmith
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Quoting: Bobcat205
so in short

blue square man bad*

*compared to other ways of analytical thinking


Quoting: mondo
It is referencing them because a lot of people use Jfresh, Dom, EW, etc. to validate their opinions on players abilities. I'd say they're good for a reference point regarding casual viewing and player evaluation, but not good enough to be totally conclusive on a player's usefulness to a team. There's a lot we don't know because it's not available to us.

Also, personally, I feel like a lot of the public analytical guys have a sense of stubbornness when it comes to their specific modelling structures so this is a well deserved kick in the nuts.

Makes sense completely.

If some dudes who have full time/ part time work created such powerful tools for casual reference analytics - it would make sense there are much more adept yet simple analytics that some teams would use. For example most of the analytic community loves Minnesota Carolinas drafting - however it pretty closely resembles their own prospect analysis.

Where as teams like Islanders (just using alot of their recent picks) go with a no brainer selection. Or teams like Ottawa have their own opinion (Boucher > Sillinger, some other “odd”’picks) - and Ottawa would have definitely went with Stutzle first overall.

Even more so; I never value analytics alone as what
Quoting: pinslack
What stroke me :

This is also a fundamental flaw of current, publicly available expected goals models: shots that are preceded by a pass are more than twice as likely to go in as those that aren’t. Omitting pre-shot movement data (not by choice) makes a huge impact on these measures, underrating or overrating certain players based on what is publicly available.


This states is pretty obvious at least to me. They don’t tell a story. Every game has a story. There’s a rhythm and analytics will never tell you what your eyes can see. Further proves that if you use one tool solely for your opinion you’re likely falling into a confirmation bias type circle.
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