dont like irwin in lineup but hell yeah this is a good team

Great comeback win for the boys. Thought the lines started to gel and loved the top line.

What a goal from Scoarlov.

Hope Dowd isn’t out long term but feel solid about being able to slide Eller in at 4C until he is back.

Milano-Backstrom-Wilson look so good together

i really liked that third line. this is the team we wanted to see and they brought. noticed something tho. we really need a guy that can clear the net infront of kuemp. those where the reason for the first two. also
need reconstrustion of that second line. alexander barbanov would be a fit. hes a work horse nd give 10 percent. need to watch more of him tho.

Eh first one Kuemper should've got as he saw it clean -- Fehervary actually did a great job clearing the sight lanes -- and the second was a nasty high tip. Definitely concerned about the second line but mostly because Kuzy has been playing horribly. If you want a Barbanov type guy just put Mojo or Protas there imo

Agreed, no matter who the wingers are (to an extent), the second line will go as Kuzy goes. If kuzy is on it will dominate, if he’s giving low effort it won’t do anything.

Gustafsson for Norris

You think we sign him?

Dowd out tonight Eller back in. They better plug and play and not mess up the lines.

These lines are bruuuuutal.

Boys got it goin and and first line was vibing all game.

All they had to do was put Eller in for Dowder

this still stands

Was coming here to comment this. We are capable but not willing apparently

Money puck gave us a 94.8% chance to win and expected goals of 4.28 to 1.85.

Crazy we didn’t win.

Lavi needs to decide if Mantha is in the plan or not, if not we need to flip him.

FINAL OPTIMIZED LINES EXTRAPOLATED FROM EXPECTED GOALS FOR PERCENTAGES

Alex Ovechkin – Dylan Strome – Conor Sheary
Sonny Milano – Evgeny Kuznetsov – Tom Wilson
Marcus Johansson – Nicklas Backstrom – T.J. Oshie
Aliaksei Protas – Nic Dowd- Garnet Hathaway

Extras: Lars Eller, Anthony Mantha, Nicolas Aube-Kubel

Interesting results. Top line is a no brainer.



Full article:

https://novacapsfans.com/2023/01/18/identification-of-optimal-forward-line-combinations-for-the-capitals-based-on-expected-goals-for-percentages-xgf/

We need to destroy Arizona for our egos today.

We need it bad

What do you guys think we should do with Mantha? Ideally I'd like to see him get consistent top 6 minutes and PP2 time but Lavi appears to be the type of coach to have a dog house.

1. Keep him and use him sparingly as we are
2. Flip him for picks
3. Flip him for another top 6 forward
4. Flip him for a top 4 D?

Going to be like sprong situation imo. We trade him in a deal for a better piece.

I hope so. Adding a top 6 forward that is deployed as such would be huge for this team.

I want to deploy Mantha as a true top 6 forward or trade for one and add a strong RD

Van doesn’t need any wingers but kuzmenko would be the target imo.

Mantha scratched for the 4th time in the last 6 games. Should go ahead and trade him at this point

I hate these lines but they are kinda working. Strome was so close to a Hatty

My thoughts on the lines, Mantha, and Laviolette after a nice win tonight and a very unlucky loss (with some very questionable goaltending) against MIN.

Its pretty clear that Lav sees players as filling certain roles in his system rather than building his system to get the most talented players in the lineup. I'm not sure its the philosophy I would go with, but I think everyone needs to take that as a starting point. Within each line, it seems like he wants one puck retriever, one setup guy, and one shooter. This is why Ovi has always been paired with Wilson, Sheary, or now NAK as his other winger (or even Mike Knuble or Joel Ward back in the day). The other lines can be seen in this way -- Ovi, Milano, Oshie, and Johansson are roughly the shooters, Strome, Backstrom, Eller, Kuzy the setup guys, and NAK, Wilson, Sheary, Hath the puck retrievers. It makes sense, and I think has worked pretty well, especially the Milano-Backstrom-Wilson line. Mantha's problem (in addition to getting unlucky goaltending results) is that he doesn't fit any of those categories very clearly or consistently. He's squandered too many breakaways and good chances to be a finisher, doesn't have the vision or passing to be a setup guy, and most importantly isn't consistently physical enough to be a puck retriever -- at least in the way Lav wants the team to play. He's stuck in a weird position where he then throws off the balance of any line he gets put on, not really (once again within the confines of Lav's system) complimenting any other pairing of forwards. Move the combos around to accommodate him, by say putting out a Mantha-Strome-Wilson line, and you automatically break up better pairings and don't effectively optimize better players like Ovi and Kuzy. The combo I think worked the best (unsurprisingly given how good they are) was when he was on the 4th line with Dowd and Hathaway. With Dowd out injured though, that's not an option, and even if it was MoJo fits that role nicely AND kills penalties.

Overall I just can't get as worked up about Mantha as people on RMNB, Japers, and Twitter do. He's a very good player, who has good underlyings and boxcars, and I think he can still work out in DC. At the same time, coaches need to think just as much about the how of those results and put every player, not just Mantha, with teammates that will play off of their strengths and mask their weaknesses. I just think Mantha is a bit too much of a jack-of-all-trades, master of none type player to fit in with what Lav wants to do. Once again I disagree with this a bit philosophically, but I totally understand it -- especially when the combos for these past two games seem to have worked out very well.

Mojo and Kuzy move the puck well together.

Great write up @qc14 - I think you hit it spot on. I definitely think Mantha is an effective player AND can work in DC.

To answer the question above - I really think we should hold on to Mantha. Think about how many injuries this team has gone through (and potentially, god forbid, might go through in the near future)...We all know the player (players) I am referring to so no need to speak that bad mojo. That being said, having a guy (yes I know a $5.7mil guy) to plug in where needed is absolutely huge. Plus, depending on matchups, Lavy has options and almost always, options are good.

One big exception - If Mantha can be used in a package to get a top 4, effective D (preferably with term due to only have Carlson next year) OR a better top 6 winger (which is not something I would be necessarily shopping for if I were the Caps).

Anyways, I would love to see Mantha in there, but too many times, the guy plays and I forget he is actually in the lineup. Whereas NAK, MoJo, Eller, even Protas - I ALWAYS notice them (usually for decent to good things lol).