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Central Division Projections

Who finishes first?
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Sep. 22, 2022 at 1:31 p.m.
#26
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Quoting: mokumboi
If you have The Athletic, you should check out the interview with him they just posted. Honestly, I'm more worried about keeping him healthy than I am about how well he'll play this season. His elite puck handling is so important to our system.


I'll take a look. My prediction for you guys isn't disparaging. Losing Perron hurts, but obviously you'll still have a top 10ish offense and no doubts about your defense. He's just your X-factor of where you place. I get the health factor, especially a Pens fan.

It's just such a different animal when you compare success in the regular season vs. the post season.
Sep. 22, 2022 at 1:45 p.m.
#27
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Quoting: Mr_Gardoki
I'll take a look. My prediction for you guys isn't disparaging. Losing Perron hurts, but obviously you'll still have a top 10ish offense and no doubts about your defense. He's just your X-factor of where you place. I get the health factor, especially a Pens fan.

It's just such a different animal when you compare success in the regular season vs. the post season.


Yes, I know that, but I'm not sure how it applies here because the Blues are almost always very good in the regular season. Going backwards counting full seasons in the West, they've been: 4th, 1st, 1st, 5th, 9th, 5th, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 2nd... you get the idea. It's practically their identity through the years - play great in the regular season, and then suffer some grating disappointment in the playoffs.
Sep. 22, 2022 at 2:00 p.m.
#28
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Quoting: mokumboi
Yes, I know that, but I'm not sure how it applies here because the Blues are almost always very good in the regular season. Going backwards counting full seasons in the West, they've been: 4th, 1st, 1st, 5th, 9th, 5th, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 2nd... you get the idea. It's practically their identity through the years - play great in the regular season, and then suffer some grating disappointment in the playoffs.


It's just hard to predict a team to finish first or second based on the hits STL took. STL, on paper, is simply not as good as they were last year.
Nov. 24, 2022 at 9:24 a.m.
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Quoting: Mr_Gardoki
Next hardest division to predict under the Atlantic.

Colorado lost a lot of key pieces. My concern for them is goaltending and could be similar to TOR last year.

STL loses Husso which could sting bad.

NSH is the team not to sleep on. Quietly they had a nice off-season and if Duchene and Ryjo play well again, this is a team that becomes the dark horse for the SCF.

1) NSH
2) COL
3) MIN
4) STL
5) DAL
6) WPG
7) CHI
8) AZ


Well, I wasn't kidding when I said how hard this division was to predict. I'm not sure many people had DAL and WPG in the top four, but so far I'm tracking COL and STL pretty accurately.
Nov. 24, 2022 at 9:25 a.m.
#30
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Quoting: mokumboi
I don't think they'll finish first, but if Colorado doesn't they're just as likely to finish 1st as those two teams, if not more so than Minnesota. But I'm not offended, I find it humorous. I actually welcome underestimating the Blues. Hell, I encourage it.


20 games in, still early, but hey...
Nov. 24, 2022 at 10:22 a.m.
#31
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Quoting: Mr_Gardoki
20 games in, still early, but hey...


Yeah, it's been weird so far. But they are still ahead of MINN and NASH.
Nov. 24, 2022 at 11:54 a.m.
#32
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Quoting: mokumboi
Yeah, it's been weird so far. But they are still ahead of MINN and NASH.


They're right where I thought they'd be. This division is all out of sorts though. Who saw WPG and DAL coming?
Nov. 24, 2022 at 12:04 p.m.
#33
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Quoting: Mr_Gardoki
They're right where I thought they'd be. This division is all out of sorts though. Who saw WPG and DAL coming?


I think Winnipeg is a bit of a mirage. Pretty sure they'll tumble soon enough. Congrats to them for Hellebuyck having a heater and for managing individual games well (already five OT/shootout wins), but that bubble should burst. Even now, they are three points up on STL and NASH, but two fewer regulation wins than the Blues and one less than the Preds.

However, other than Benn dialing back a few years, I have no idea why anyone is surprised Dallas is playing so well. They're always a tough egg to crack, plus they can be very streaky.

Taken as a big picture, I think the current Central standings is more a reflection of Colorado, Minnesota and St. Louis having (sometimes strange) early struggles than it is of any great power shift in the division. I guess we'll find out in the end.
Nov. 24, 2022 at 12:28 p.m.
#34
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Quoting: mokumboi
I think Winnipeg is a bit of a mirage. Pretty sure they'll tumble soon enough. Congrats to them for Hellebuyck having a heater and for managing individual games well (already five OT/shootout wins), but that bubble should burst. Even now, they are three points up on STL and NASH, but two fewer regulation wins than the Blues and one less than the Preds.

However, other than Benn dialing back a few years, I have no idea why anyone is surprised Dallas is playing so well. They're always a tough egg to crack, plus they can be very streaky.

Taken as a big picture, I think the current Central standings is more a reflection of Colorado, Minnesota and St. Louis having (sometimes strange) early struggles than it is of any great power shift in the division. I guess we'll find out in the end.


Around the 20/25 game mark is usually the point in the season when the overachievers start to come back down to earth and the underachievers start to find their way. My biggest issue for STL was/is goaltending. I think losing Husso was huge and I'm personally not a believer in Binnington. I think he's another Matt Murray, but I guess we'll see if he finds his game.
Nov. 24, 2022 at 12:48 p.m.
#35
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Quoting: Mr_Gardoki
Around the 20/25 game mark is usually the point in the season when the overachievers start to come back down to earth and the underachievers start to find their way. My biggest issue for STL was/is goaltending. I think losing Husso was huge and I'm personally not a believer in Binnington. I think he's another Matt Murray, but I guess we'll see if he finds his game.



Heh. It seems you haven't watched the Blues play at all, because Binnington has been their best, most consistent player so far this season. His stats are very misleading because not only has the team hung him out to dry repeatedly to face odd mans and back door passes out the wazoo, but they've kicked or gloved or kneed in eight goals against him so far. EIGHT.

Not only has Binnington found his game, he is right near Cup run form this season. He's been on the verge of splendid. The team defense has not.
Nov. 24, 2022 at 3:28 p.m.
#36
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Quoting: mokumboi
Heh. It seems you haven't watched the Blues play at all, because Binnington has been their best, most consistent player so far this season. His stats are very misleading because not only has the team hung him out to dry repeatedly to face odd mans and back door passes out the wazoo, but they've kicked or gloved or kneed in eight goals against him so far. EIGHT.

Not only has Binnington found his game, he is right near Cup run form this season. He's been on the verge of splendid. The team defense has not.


Stats can only be misleading to a point. I admit, I only watched one STL game this season I he wasn't playing that game and I can accept that you'd be in a worse off position despite his play, but across the board key stats not boding well simply isn't a good indicator, especially GSAA and HDSV%. They aren't BAD, but they ain't good. Being in cup form for any goalie, there are certain stats that will be good despite the team in front of them.
Nov. 24, 2022 at 4:02 p.m.
#37
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Quoting: Mr_Gardoki
Stats can only be misleading to a point. I admit, I only watched one STL game this season I he wasn't playing that game and I can accept that you'd be in a worse off position despite his play, but across the board key stats not boding well simply isn't a good indicator, especially GSAA and HDSV%. They aren't BAD, but they ain't good. Being in cup form for any goalie, there are certain stats that will be good despite the team in front of them.


The stats are greatly misleading in this case. And as you said his stats aren't even bad. xG is a rather incomplete stat to begin with anyway. The guy has been excellent.
 
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