Quoting: Db1899
The islanders had great analytics during both ECF runs
Reading comprehension must not be your strong suit.
Two years ago the Islanders ranked 21st as the model was skeptical of the roster despite its playoff success. Last year the team jumped to 10th, finally made into a believer. Now they’re down to 25th as the pendulum swings back the other way. The Islanders are not a bad team, but they are spending a lot of money to be average, with a lot of committed term to go with it.
Defense is the team’s calling card so it’s no surprise the Islanders grade out well there. Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock remain one of the best pairs in hockey and the team has the duo locked up at very sensible cap hits. Neither is a guarantee due to age and their positive value probability isn’t far off from 50 percent, but they’re still good bets.
It’s the forwards that really aren’t. Eight of them have a positive value probability lower than 40 percent. The team’s two top centers, Brock Nelson and Mathew Barzal, are fairly compensated, but much of the team’s depth afterwards is on the wrong side of the ledger. Anders Lee and Casey Cizikas are the biggest offenders being overpaid by around $3 million, and they also have the longest deals in the books. That adds up. All of Matt Martin, Josh Bailey, Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Ross Johnston are overpaid by at least $2 million on multi-year deals. Anthony Beauvillier, Cal Clutterbuck and Kyle Palmieri aren’t much better.
It’s a rough cap sheet with a serious lack of flexibility. It’s no wonder the team didn’t really have the ability to fit Johnny Gaudreau — it would’ve been way too hard to maneuver with so many anchors on deck. The Islanders are pot-committed to a losing hand.