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Rookie Camp thoughts

Created by: Andy_Dick
Team: 2024-25 Montreal Canadiens
Initial Creation Date: Sep. 17, 2022
Published: Sep. 17, 2022
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Cap going up 6-8 million when they are putting on ugly RBC logos on La Sainte Flanelle.

Matheson/Savard could be dealt at the TDL. Matheson if he continues on his trajectory and if Guhle is indeed Weber2.0 then Matheson would be a desirable piece to move at his salary. The backend will need veterans til Guhle/Barron/Harris/Xhekaj are ready to lead.

Beck/Heineman/Slafkovsky/Kidney/Barron have been quite impressive
Free Agent Signings
RESERVE LISTYEARSCAP HIT
3$900,000
2$900,000
3$850,000
3$900,000
3$850,000
2$950,000
2$850,000
2$850,000
2$850,000
2$850,000
3$850,000
2$850,000
2$850,000
2$850,000
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
3$2,750,000
7$7,500,000
1$1,500,000
2$1,750,000
2$900,000
2$1,000,000
2$1,000,000
1$900,000
1$950,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
3$4,100,000
1$1,100,000
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
Fantilli, Adam
3$950,000
Trades
1.
MTL
    Futures
    2.
    MTL
    1. Wilde, Bode [RFA Rights]
    2. 2023 2nd round pick (NYI)
    Additional Details:
    Speculated value at this point is a 2nd rounder according to sources which MTL wont accept. Once the cap goes up and in MSL system, he should fetch closer to Lehkonen's return. Bode isnt close to the same prospect as Barron. Serious character concerns regarding him. He grew up in MTL and we know those merits
    3.
    MTL
    1. Lundkvist, Nils [RFA Rights]
    DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
    2023
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the FLA
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the NYI
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the PIT
    Logo of the VGK
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the CGY
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    2024
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the COL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the EDM
    2025
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the CGY
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
    23$88,500,000$60,803,333$0$4,035,000$27,696,667
    Left WingCentreRight Wing
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $950,000$950,000 (Performance Bonus$3,500,000$4M)
    RW, LW
    RFA - 1
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $7,875,000$7,875,000
    C
    UFA - 6
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $7,500,000$7,500,000
    LW, RW
    UFA - 7
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $900,000$900,000
    RW, LW
    RFA - 1
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $835,000$835,000 (Performance Bonus$57,500$58K)
    LW, RW
    RFA - 2
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $5,500,000$5,500,000
    RW, LW
    M-NTC
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $3,362,500$3,362,500
    C, RW
    RFA - 2
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $6,500,000$6,500,000
    RW, LW
    M-NTC, NMC
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $897,500$897,500
    LW, RW
    RFA - 1
    Fantilli, Adam
    $950,000$950,000
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $1,700,000$1,700,000
    C
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $900,000$900,000
    C
    RFA - 2
    Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$420,000$420K)
    LD/RD
    RFA - 1
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $2,750,000$2,750,000
    RD
    RFA
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $4,100,000$4,100,000
    G
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $4,875,000$4,875,000
    LD
    M-NTC
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $950,000$950,000
    RD
    RFA - 2
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $890,000$890,000
    G
    RFA - 1
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $1,750,000$1,750,000
    LD/RD
    RFA
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $3,500,000$3,500,000
    RD
    UFA - 1
    ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $1,500,000$1,500,000
    LD/RD
    RFA - 1
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $10,500,000$10,500,000
    G
    NMC
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $836,667$836,667 (Performance Bonus$57,500$58K)
    C
    RFA - 2
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $918,333$918,333
    RW, C
    RFA - 2

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    Sep. 17, 2022 at 2:54 p.m.
    #1
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    Isles do not need a center
    Sep. 17, 2022 at 3:06 p.m.
    #2
    1GarthSnowFan
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    Quoting: Db1899
    Isles do not need a center


    I agree the isles don’t need a center when they have Barzal, Nelson and Pageau. But given the fact all you do is complain about Pageau, I’m honestly surprised you don’t want to replace him with Dvorak lmao.
    Sep. 17, 2022 at 3:09 p.m.
    #3
    1GarthSnowFan
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    I don’t c the isles and Montreal as good trade partners tbh. Montreal has the young forwards NY would want, but has no desire to move them.
    Sep. 17, 2022 at 3:15 p.m.
    #4
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    Quoting: Db1899
    Isles do not need a center


    Not that I think this trade is something that will happen but he also plays LW.
    Sep. 17, 2022 at 3:18 p.m.
    #5
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    Quoting: Isles5513
    I agree the isles don’t need a center when they have Barzal, Nelson and Pageau. But given the fact all you do is complain about Pageau, I’m honestly surprised you don’t want to replace him with Dvorak lmao.

    I mean Dvorak would be better than Pageau but we’d have to move Pageau first but he’s just not worth Wilde and a 2nd at all. The reason to move Pageau next off season is to open a spot for Raty so we won’t need Dvorak or Pageau. To answer your comment yes Dvorak would be better to have than Pageau contract and skill wise but he’s not worth it to trade for.
    Not_Isles5513 liked this.
    Sep. 17, 2022 at 3:22 p.m.
    #6
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    Quoting: Hockeypal
    I mean Dvorak would be better than Pageau but we’d have to move Pageau first but he’s just not worth Wilde and a 2nd at all. The reason to move Pageau next off season is to open a spot for Raty so we won’t need Dvorak or Pageau. To answer your comment yes Dvorak would be better to have than Pageau contract and skill wise but he’s not worth it to trade for.


    Dvorak went for a 1st and a 2nd, a year ago, and his rep around the league is still quite good. No such thing as a team not needing another good center. Dvorak 5on5 points are on par with the top half of the league and he wins draws.
    Sep. 17, 2022 at 3:24 p.m.
    #7
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    Quoting: Isles5513
    I agree the isles don’t need a center when they have Barzal, Nelson and Pageau. But given the fact all you do is complain about Pageau, I’m honestly surprised you don’t want to replace him with Dvorak lmao.


    Never complained about pageau, called him average. Reading comprehension clearly isn't your strong suit.
    Sep. 17, 2022 at 3:25 p.m.
    #8
    1GarthSnowFan
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    Quoting: Hockeypal
    I mean Dvorak would be better than Pageau but we’d have to move Pageau first but he’s just not worth Wilde and a 2nd at all. The reason to move Pageau next off season is to open a spot for Raty so we won’t need Dvorak or Pageau. To answer your comment yes Dvorak would be better to have than Pageau contract and skill wise but he’s not worth it to trade for.


    Contract wise and age wise it makes sense. I prefer Pageau
    currently tho.
    Sep. 17, 2022 at 3:25 p.m.
    #9
    1GarthSnowFan
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    Quoting: Db1899
    Never complained about pageau, called him average. Reading comprehension clearly isn't your strong suit.


    It’s ignorant to call him average.
    Sep. 17, 2022 at 3:26 p.m.
    #10
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    Quoting: Isles5513
    It’s ignorant to call him average.


    not at all, Because he's an average 3C. The numbers don't lie.
    Sep. 17, 2022 at 3:32 p.m.
    #11
    1GarthSnowFan
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    Quoting: Db1899
    not at all, Because he's an average 3C. The numbers don't lie.


    Most models didn’t like the isles during either ECF run. Dom at the athletic talked about it in his pre season contract efficiency rankings.
    Sep. 17, 2022 at 3:33 p.m.
    #12
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    Quoting: Isles5513
    Most models didn’t like the isles during either ECF run. Dom at the athletic talked about it in his pre season contract efficiency rankings.


    The islanders had great analytics during both ECF runs
    Sep. 17, 2022 at 3:36 p.m.
    #13
    1GarthSnowFan
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    Quoting: Db1899
    The islanders had great analytics during both ECF runs


    Reading comprehension must not be your strong suit.

    Two years ago the Islanders ranked 21st as the model was skeptical of the roster despite its playoff success. Last year the team jumped to 10th, finally made into a believer. Now they’re down to 25th as the pendulum swings back the other way. The Islanders are not a bad team, but they are spending a lot of money to be average, with a lot of committed term to go with it.

    Defense is the team’s calling card so it’s no surprise the Islanders grade out well there. Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock remain one of the best pairs in hockey and the team has the duo locked up at very sensible cap hits. Neither is a guarantee due to age and their positive value probability isn’t far off from 50 percent, but they’re still good bets.

    It’s the forwards that really aren’t. Eight of them have a positive value probability lower than 40 percent. The team’s two top centers, Brock Nelson and Mathew Barzal, are fairly compensated, but much of the team’s depth afterwards is on the wrong side of the ledger. Anders Lee and Casey Cizikas are the biggest offenders being overpaid by around $3 million, and they also have the longest deals in the books. That adds up. All of Matt Martin, Josh Bailey, Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Ross Johnston are overpaid by at least $2 million on multi-year deals. Anthony Beauvillier, Cal Clutterbuck and Kyle Palmieri aren’t much better.

    It’s a rough cap sheet with a serious lack of flexibility. It’s no wonder the team didn’t really have the ability to fit Johnny Gaudreau — it would’ve been way too hard to maneuver with so many anchors on deck. The Islanders are pot-committed to a losing hand.
    Sep. 17, 2022 at 3:45 p.m.
    #14
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    Quoting: Isles5513
    Reading comprehension must not be your strong suit.

    Two years ago the Islanders ranked 21st as the model was skeptical of the roster despite its playoff success. Last year the team jumped to 10th, finally made into a believer. Now they’re down to 25th as the pendulum swings back the other way. The Islanders are not a bad team, but they are spending a lot of money to be average, with a lot of committed term to go with it.

    Defense is the team’s calling card so it’s no surprise the Islanders grade out well there. Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock remain one of the best pairs in hockey and the team has the duo locked up at very sensible cap hits. Neither is a guarantee due to age and their positive value probability isn’t far off from 50 percent, but they’re still good bets.

    It’s the forwards that really aren’t. Eight of them have a positive value probability lower than 40 percent. The team’s two top centers, Brock Nelson and Mathew Barzal, are fairly compensated, but much of the team’s depth afterwards is on the wrong side of the ledger. Anders Lee and Casey Cizikas are the biggest offenders being overpaid by around $3 million, and they also have the longest deals in the books. That adds up. All of Matt Martin, Josh Bailey, Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Ross Johnston are overpaid by at least $2 million on multi-year deals. Anthony Beauvillier, Cal Clutterbuck and Kyle Palmieri aren’t much better.

    It’s a rough cap sheet with a serious lack of flexibility. It’s no wonder the team didn’t really have the ability to fit Johnny Gaudreau — it would’ve been way too hard to maneuver with so many anchors on deck. The Islanders are pot-committed to a losing hand.


    First of all, im embarrassed for you. You just used reading comprehension in the wrong context, but go off man.

    it's a model, not a 100% accurate predictor of a teams success. Dom has said this multiple times. The covid runs were great for an older and slower team like the isles due to shortened season + the break before the bubble.

    What he said regarding the teams current cap structure is recent and it is correct. The islanders have a ton of overpaid forwards that fail to live up to their cap hits. The isles need their younger players to fill more top 6 roles because he's factoring in that Palmieri , JG Pageau and Bailey will be 4th line caliber within 2 years , if not by next by season
    Sep. 17, 2022 at 3:47 p.m.
    #15
    1GarthSnowFan
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    Quoting: Db1899
    First of all, im embarrassed for you. You just used reading comprehension in the wrong context, but go off man.

    it's a model, not a 100% accurate predictor of a teams success. Dom has said this multiple times. The covid runs were great for an older and slower team like the isles due to shortened season + the break before the bubble.

    What he said regarding the teams current cap structure is recent and it is correct. The islanders have a ton of overpaid forwards that fail to live up to their cap hits. The isles need their younger players to fill more top 6 roles because he's factoring in that Palmieri , JG Pageau and Bailey will be 4th line caliber within 2 years , if not by next by season


    “it's a model, not a 100% accurate predictor of a teams success. Dom has said this multiple times. The covid runs were great for an older and slower team like the isles due to shortened season + the break before the bubble.” - that’s how all analytics models work bro. You don’t seem to acknowledge it tho when it comes to evolving hockey.
    Sep. 17, 2022 at 3:47 p.m.
    #16
    1GarthSnowFan
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    Quoting: Db1899
    First of all, im embarrassed for you. You just used reading comprehension in the wrong context, but go off man.

    it's a model, not a 100% accurate predictor of a teams success. Dom has said this multiple times. The covid runs were great for an older and slower team like the isles due to shortened season + the break before the bubble.

    What he said regarding the teams current cap structure is recent and it is correct. The islanders have a ton of overpaid forwards that fail to live up to their cap hits. The isles need their younger players to fill more top 6 roles because he's factoring in that Palmieri , JG Pageau and Bailey will be 4th line caliber within 2 years , if not by next by season


    You said their analytics were good when they made the ECF, I pointed to one source which said they didn’t. Correct me if I’m wrong but you have said you had an athletic subscription in the past? Anyone who read this article would know the model has never been a fan of them… at least not when it’s good.
    Sep. 17, 2022 at 3:51 p.m.
    #17
    1GarthSnowFan
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    Quoting: Db1899
    First of all, im embarrassed for you. You just used reading comprehension in the wrong context, but go off man.

    it's a model, not a 100% accurate predictor of a teams success. Dom has said this multiple times. The covid runs were great for an older and slower team like the isles due to shortened season + the break before the bubble.

    What he said regarding the teams current cap structure is recent and it is correct. The islanders have a ton of overpaid forwards that fail to live up to their cap hits. The isles need their younger players to fill more top 6 roles because he's factoring in that Palmieri , JG Pageau and Bailey will be 4th line caliber within 2 years , if not by next by season


    He finally admitted analytics weren’t perfect. At least the ones at the athletic.

    @UBS_ARENA I think we r making progress lmao
    UBS_ARENA liked this.
    Sep. 17, 2022 at 3:53 p.m.
    #18
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    Quoting: Isles5513
    “it's a model, not a 100% accurate predictor of a teams success. Dom has said this multiple times. The covid runs were great for an older and slower team like the isles due to shortened season + the break before the bubble.” - that’s how all analytics models work bro. You don’t seem to acknowledge it tho when it comes to evolving hockey.


    It's a lot easier to predict a players outlook than an entire team, which is what you don't understand. Also predicting future outlook and stating what a player has done over the last 3 seasons are two different things. You can look at Anders Lee's 3 year charts and you can come to the conclusion that hes been a solid 2nd line scoring winger. Next season he might score 30 goals or he. might fall off a cliff and fail to score 15. You weigh many different factors.
    Sep. 17, 2022 at 3:55 p.m.
    #19
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    Quoting: Isles5513
    You said their analytics were good when they made the ECF, I pointed to one source which said they didn’t. Correct me if I’m wrong but you have said you had an athletic subscription in the past? Anyone who read this article would know the model has never been a fan of them… at least not when it’s good.


    Actually looking back, their analytics were great in the bubble. They dominated Florida, Washington and Philly .

    Their analytics in the 2021 run were not good at all. They beat Pittsburgh because Jarry had one of the worst goaltending performances in NHL history and Sorokin was amazing. They were outplayed. Against Boston , but the isles goaltending was much better. Tampa they were outplayed and lost
    Sep. 17, 2022 at 3:56 p.m.
    #20
    1GarthSnowFan
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    Quoting: Db1899
    It's a lot easier to predict a players outlook than an entire team, which is what you don't understand. Also predicting future outlook and stating what a player has done over the last 3 seasons are two different things. You can look at Anders Lee's 3 year charts and you can come to the conclusion that hes been a solid 2nd line scoring winger. Next season he might score 30 goals or he. might fall off a cliff and fail to score 15. You weigh many different factors.


    Once again you are pretending idk what I’m talking about. Does that make you feel special? Does that let you pretend you are never wrong? You seem to struggle with the fact other people may be as knowledgable as much as you. It’s actually insane lmao.
    Sep. 17, 2022 at 3:57 p.m.
    #21
    1GarthSnowFan
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    Quoting: Db1899
    Actually looking back, their analytics were great in the bubble. They dominated Florida, Washington and Philly .

    Their analytics in the 2021 run were not good at all. They beat Pittsburgh because Jarry had one of the worst goaltending performances in NHL history and Sorokin was amazing. They were outplayed. Against Boston , but the isles goaltending was much better. Tampa they were outplayed and lost


    Florida, Washington and Philly had worse blue lines than NY. Hockey is mainly about goaltending and defense. Get Sorokin to the playoffs and they can make a run.
    Sep. 17, 2022 at 3:57 p.m.
    #22
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    Quoting: OP
    Cap going up 6-8 million


    Not likely...supposed to $1 million increases until 2025-26 season (once they get escrow balanced out).

    Here are the salary cap projections

    We haven't felt the brunt of the 'flat cap' yet.
    UBS_ARENA liked this.
    Sep. 17, 2022 at 4:00 p.m.
    #23
    1GarthSnowFan
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    Quoting: Db1899
    You don't know what you're talking about. It's not a secret that your reading comprehension sucks and you get defensive when you don't understand analytics, leading you to criticize them.


    Why would I feel defensive? All you are doing is repeating the same old insults and ignoring the reality of the situation.
    Sep. 17, 2022 at 4:00 p.m.
    #24
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    Quoting: Isles5513
    Florida, Washington and Philly had worse blue lines than NY. Hockey is mainly about goaltending and defense. Get Sorokin to the playoffs and they can make a run.


    That was a very easy path to an ECF. They also had a much younger F group. 4 out of their top 6 forwards were under 30. The isles are a 1st round exit at best
    Sep. 17, 2022 at 4:02 p.m.
    #25
    1GarthSnowFan
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    Quoting: Db1899
    That was a very easy path to an ECF. They also had a much younger F group. 4 out of their top 6 forwards were under 30. The isles are a 1st round exit at best


    Forward group wasn’t that young tho, and it lacked high end talent and depth.
    UBS_ARENA liked this.
     
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