Forums/Armchair-GM

If Sandin sits

Created by: MatthewsFan
Initial Creation Date: Sep. 18, 2022
Published: Sep. 18, 2022
Team: 2022-23 Toronto Maple Leafs
Free Agent Signings
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
Aston-Reese, Zach1$850,000
Trades
1.
TOR
  1. Anderson-Dolan, Jaret
Additional Details:
With a log jam a C, JAD could be made expendable.
LAK
  1. Anderson, Joey
Additional Details:
Change of scenery, reunite the brothers
2.
TOR
  1. Välimäki, Juuso
Additional Details:
Valimaki has tumbled down the Flames’ depth chart. It’s hard to see Valimaki able to burst through into the top six. Plus Mackey seems to have jumped him also. Valimaki is also not waiver-exempt.
CGY
  1. Kerfoot, Alexander
Additional Details:
Kerfoot could add to CGY button 6 and provide basically the same role he does on the Leafs
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2023
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2024
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2025
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$82,500,000$82,130,616$212,500$0$369,384

Roster

Left WingCenterRight Wing
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Bunting, Michael
$950,000
LW
UFA - 1
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Matthews, Auston
$11,640,250
C
UFA - 2
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Marner, Mitchell
$10,903,000
RW
UFA - 3
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Järnkrok, Calle
$2,100,000
C, LW, RW
NTC
UFA - 4
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Tavares, John
$11,000,000
C
NMC
UFA - 3
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Nylander, William
$6,962,366
RW, LW
UFA - 2
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Engvall, Pierre
$2,250,000
LW, RW, C
UFA - 1
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Kämpf, David
$1,500,000
C
UFA - 1
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Malgin, Denis
$750,000
LW, RW
RFA - 1
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Aston-Reese, Zach
$850,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
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Anderson-Dolan, Jaret
$750,000
C
RFA - 1
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Aubé-Kubel, Nicolas
$1,000,000
RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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Rielly, Morgan
$7,500,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 8
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Liljegren, Timothy
$1,400,000
RD
RFA - 2
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Murray, Matt
$4,687,500
G
NTC
UFA - 2
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Muzzin, Jake
$5,625,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 2
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Brodie, TJ
$5,000,000
LD/RD
NTC
UFA - 2
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Samsonov, Ilya
$1,800,000
G
RFA - 1
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Giordano, Mark
$800,000
LD
UFA - 2
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Holl, Justin
$2,000,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
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Välimäki, Juuso
$1,550,000
LD
RFA - 1
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Simmonds, Wayne
$900,000
RW, LW
NTC
UFA - 1

Special Teams

Power Play 1
Nylander, W.
Matthews, A.
Marner, M.
Tavares, J.
Rielly, M.
Power Play 2
Engvall, P.
Malgin, D.
Järnkrok, C.
Bunting, M.
Giordano, M.
Penalty Kill 1
Kämpf, D.
Marner, M.
Muzzin, J.
Brodie, T.
Penalty Kill 2
Engvall, P.
Aubé-Kubel, N.
Giordano, M.
Liljegren, T.

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Sep. 18 at 11:29 p.m.
#26
TrevorA
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Quoting: Saskleaf
Top 4 potential is a bit of a stretch, but that trade offer sounds fairly reasonable. I’d probably accept it.

Nope, lots of D-Men are late Bloomers and D-Men typically take more time to develop in general. Holl for example didn't start playing in the NHL till he was like 25-26
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Sep. 18 at 11:31 p.m.
#27
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Ovchinnikov 137
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Quoting: KingofRnR
Nope, lots of D-Men are late Bloomers and D-Men typically take more time to develop in general. Holl for example didn't start playing in the NHL till he was like 25-26


Absolutely, won’t be in CGY tho if he reaches it
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Sep. 18 at 11:40 p.m.
#28
TrevorA
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Quoting: MatthewsFan
But on the Flames he is. With one of Meloche, Gilbert, Mackey, Valimaki, or the currently unsigned but long-time Flames seventh defenceman Michael Stone, likely taking the spot. It doesn’t make sense to keep Valimaki in this role unless they think he will get regular minutes.

This past season, Valimaki struggled to earn meaningful minutes in the NHL. He only featured in nine games for the Flames, he played mostly in a third pairing role with Ilya Solovyov in his time with the Heat.

The closest comparable trade that has happened is likely the Olli Juolevi trade in 2021 which sent the 2016 first-round pick to Florida for Noah Juulsen and Juho Lammikko. Do not expect the return for Valimaki to be much at all if the Flames do end up trading him.

He is most likely waived and picked up on waivers.

I will agree getting a 3rd team to retain on Kerfoot would help this trade, give CGY more cap flexibility. But there are going to be a lot of teams running a 21 man roster this year. It will certainly help have CGY farm team close by from now on

-Might not be if Kylington and/or Mackey get Traded for a Forward... but yes, he likely gets Traded by or at the beginning of the season.
-Glad you know, corroborated and offered a summary as to why he didn't produce as much as Mackey in the AHL this past season
-Maki performed much better than Juolevi in the NHL
-I don't see them waiving and let him go for free via waivers. They'll make him a scratch and use Pelletier or any of the Wranglers as Forward emergency call ups, because...
-Yes, it's much better to have the AHL Afilliate in Calgary
-Let's make this Retained Kerfoot Trade Happen!
Sep. 18 at 11:58 p.m.
#29
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Ovchinnikov 137
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Quoting: KingofRnR
-Might not be if Kylington and/or Mackey get Traded for a Forward... but yes, he likely gets Traded by or at the beginning of the season.
-Glad you know, corroborated and offered a summary as to why he didn't produce as much as Mackey in the AHL this past season
-Maki performed much better than Juolevi in the NHL
-I don't see them waiving and let him go for free via waivers. They'll make him a scratch and use Pelletier or any of the Wranglers as Forward emergency call ups, because...
-Yes, it's much better to have the AHL Afilliate in Calgary
-Let's make this Retained Kerfoot Trade Happen!


I definitely won’t pretend to know more about prospects of other teams and I do not watch the Stockton Heat. But I do like to read and all I know about Valimaki’s AHL was his season in Stockton had been hampered by injuries, and Connor Mackey outplayed Valimaki by a wide margin with the Heat down the stretch last season and remained with the Flames during the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

He’s been through a lot, missing most of two critical development years while dealing with lower-body injuries.

First, a high-ankle sprain derailed Valimaki’s promising 2018–19 season with the Flames. Then, he missed the entire 2019–20 campaign while recovering from a torn ACL he suffered during off-season training.

Valimaki is in the “what could have been” scenario
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Sep. 19 at 12:05 a.m.
#30
TrevorA
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Quoting: MatthewsFan
I definitely won’t pretend to know more about prospects of other teams and I do not watch the Stockton Heat. But I do like to read and all I know about Valimaki’s AHL was his season in Stockton had been hampered by injuries, and Connor Mackey outplayed Valimaki by a wide margin with the Heat down the stretch last season and remained with the Flames during the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

He’s been through a lot, missing most of two critical development years while dealing with lower-body injuries.

First, a high-ankle sprain derailed Valimaki’s promising 2018–19 season with the Flames. Then, he missed the entire 2019–20 campaign while recovering from a torn ACL he suffered during off-season training.

Valimaki is in the “what could have been” scenario

I'm still in the "what still could be" phase lol
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Sep. 19 at 12:19 a.m.
#31
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Quoting: KingofRnR
Nope, lots of D-Men are late Bloomers and D-Men typically take more time to develop in general. Holl for example didn't start playing in the NHL till he was like 25-26


You’re right, he COULD become a top 4 d man. It’s possible, but it doesn’t look very likely at this point. And Kerfoot is already a pretty decent 2nd line winger/good 3rd liner.

Yes I know Kerfoot is a rental by the way.
Sep. 19 at 12:22 a.m.
#32
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Ovchinnikov 137
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Quoting: KingofRnR
I'm still in the "what still could be" phase lol


I hear ya, but this isn’t the same Valimaki that performed so well in Finland’s top-tier league two seasons ago or the same guy Flames management wouldn’t include in a potential Stone deal. His skating just isn’t the same.
Sep. 19 at 12:22 a.m.
#33
TrevorA
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Quoting: Saskleaf
You’re right, he COULD become a top 4 d man. It’s possible, but it doesn’t look very likely at this point. And Kerfoot is already a pretty decent 2nd line winger/good 3rd liner.

Yes I know Kerfoot is a rental by the way.

Oh he can.... And he will! In Valimaki We Trust!

Skate Valimaki! Skate like the Wind!!!
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Sep. 19 at 12:31 a.m.
#34
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Ovchinnikov 137
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Quoting: KingofRnR
Oh he can.... And he will! In Valimaki We Trust!

Skate Valimaki! Skate like the Wind!!!



tumblr_nl09grm9ix1tkodheo2_250.gifv
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Sep. 19 at 9:02 a.m.
#35
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Quoting: KingofRnR
Oh he can.... And he will! In Valimaki We Trust!

Skate Valimaki! Skate like the Wind!!!


For his sake I hope so.
Sep. 19 at 3:35 p.m.
#36
Formerly Jamiepo
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Quoting: aadoyle
In general Sandin sitting to me makes 0 sense at this point

The comparable are there either sign the deal Dubas gave yah or make yourself look more and more greedy

As man Gross really is trying to drag out his 2nd L against Dubas isnt he jesus


Do you think Lilly asked for 1.4m and Pridham said okay sign here? No, not how it works. Lilly asks for the moon, they go back and forth and agree on a number.

Sandin in the other hand, has zero reason to come down, or sign. Lilly has a clear path to the top 4. Sandin is looking at the pressbox as Keefe always prefers vets over young talent. Maybe Sandin sees the shl as a better path to increase his value as opposed to sitting in the press box.
Sep. 19 at 3:37 p.m.
#37
Formerly Jamiepo
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Quoting: MoxNix
Except he wouldn't be a 6 or 7 on a lot of teams.


He would be 7 on 80% of teams and 6 on a team looking to get Bedard.

He is not an nhl capable skater in my opinion.
Sep. 19 at 3:51 p.m.
#38
Hakuna Matata
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Quoting: GenXHockey
Do you think Lilly asked for 1.4m and Pridham said okay sign here? No, not how it works. Lilly asks for the moon, they go back and forth and agree on a number.

Sandin in the other hand, has zero reason to come down, or sign. Lilly has a clear path to the top 4. Sandin is looking at the pressbox as Keefe always prefers vets over young talent. Maybe Sandin sees the shl as a better path to increase his value as opposed to sitting in the press box.


Dubas laid out a 1.4mill deal for both Sandin and Liligren

Liligren took it Sandin didnt as he feels hes somehow worth more. And based on what Durzi, Brannstrom, Anderson, and Liligren signed for yeah hes looking worse by the day. Just sign the deal Dubas gave and move on. As if hes asking for playtime thats just being silly as a GM can go sure then nothing changes. Its got to be earned. If Sandin signs Holl's gone as Leafs got to clear cap for him and once that happens hes got a spot on the right of Gio. But until he puts his pen to paper and agrees to the deal Dubas handed out nothing will occur as why move Holl when Sandin's not signed
Sep. 19 at 3:55 p.m.
#39
Formerly Jamiepo
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Quoting: aadoyle
Dubas laid out a 1.4mill deal for both Sandin and Liligren

Liligren took it Sandin didnt as he feels hes somehow worth more. As if hes asking for playtime thats just being silly as a GM can go sure then nothing changes. Its got to be earned. If Sandin signs Holl's gone as Leafs got to clear cap for him and once that happens hes got a spot on the right of Gio. But until he puts his pen to paper and agrees to the deal Dubas handed out nothing will occur as why move Holl when Sandin's not signed


Dubas didn't lay out ****. Pridham signed liljegren. He also started the negotiations with Sandin. Sandin, Gio and Muzzin can not play the right side. I'm not sure why you think dubas is so eager to load Holl into a cannon. If he were, he would have been traded before the draft.

I can guarantee you that lilly and pridham didn't start at 1.4m.
Sep. 19 at 4:02 p.m.
#40
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Quoting: aadoyle
Dubas laid out a 1.4mill deal for both Sandin and Liligren

Liligren took it Sandin didnt as he feels hes somehow worth more. And based on what Durzi, Brannstrom, Anderson, and Liligren signed for yeah hes looking worse by the day. Just sign the deal Dubas gave and move on. As if hes asking for playtime thats just being silly as a GM can go sure then nothing changes. Its got to be earned. If Sandin signs Holl's gone as Leafs got to clear cap for him and once that happens hes got a spot on the right of Gio. But until he puts his pen to paper and agrees to the deal Dubas handed out nothing will occur as why move Holl when Sandin's not signed


Quoting: GenXHockey
Dubas didn't lay out ****. Pridham signed liljegren. He also started the negotiations with Sandin. Sandin, Gio and Muzzin can not play the right side. I'm not sure why you think dubas is so eager to load Holl into a cannon. If he were, he would have been traded before the draft.

I can guarantee you that lilly and pridham didn't start at 1.4m.



Nothing is for sure but it does shed some light that money is an issue here. I still think at the end of it, it’s all about fit and playing time. But if Sandin’s camp wants a Bean contract, I don’t see how the Leafs fit that in.



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Sep. 19 at 4:06 p.m.
#41
Formerly Jamiepo
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Quoting: MatthewsFan
Nothing is for sure but it does shed some light that money is an issue here. I still think at the end of it, it’s all about fit and playing time. But if Sandin’s camp wants a Bean contract, I don’t see how the Leafs fit that in.





Money isn't the issue. It's been made pretty clear that Sandin wants a path for development. He won't sign for less than his asking price if he doesn't have that.

It's a simple decision for Lilly to come off his asking price. He'll be playing top 4. Sandin will be sitting in a press box hoping for muzzin's hip to give out.

Lilly's next contract will be 5m+ and Sandin's will be 3m or less. Even with Arb rights.
Sep. 19 at 4:10 p.m.
#42
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Quoting: GenXHockey
Money isn't the issue. It's been made pretty clear that Sandin wants a path for development. He won't sign for less than his asking price if he doesn't have that.

It's a simple decision for Lilly to come off his asking price. He'll be playing top 4. Sandin will be sitting in a press box hoping for muzzin's hip to give out.

Lilly's next contract will be 5m+ and Sandin's will be 3m or less. Even with Arb rights.


3 years at 2.3 AAV is a little high for me. I fully believe Sandin will outplay that contract but it’s too rich for the Leafs cap situation today.

This seems like he either holds out or is traded.
Sep. 19 at 4:15 p.m.
#43
Formerly Jamiepo
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Quoting: MatthewsFan
3 years at 2.3 AAV is a little high for me. I fully believe Sandin will outplay that contract but it’s too rich for the Leafs cap situation today.

This seems like he either holds out or is traded.


It is purposely too high for the Leafs. Do you really think Sandin is willing to blow a year over 700k that he will more than make up for on his next contract that would be signed 2 years from now? No, he wants some assurance that he has a spot. When he has that he will come down and settle on something that works for both sides.
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Sep. 19 at 4:32 p.m.
#44
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Quoting: GenXHockey
It is purposely too high for the Leafs. Do you really think Sandin is willing to blow a year over 700k that he will more than make up for on his next contract that would be signed 2 years from now? No, he wants some assurance that he has a spot. When he has that he will come down and settle on something that works for both sides.


I hope that plays out
Sep. 19 at 6:28 p.m.
#45
good riddance johnny
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Quoting: GenXHockey
It is purposely too high for the Leafs. Do you really think Sandin is willing to blow a year over 700k that he will more than make up for on his next contract that would be signed 2 years from now? No, he wants some assurance that he has a spot. When he has that he will come down and settle on something that works for both sides.


Sandin probably won't be in the NHL 2 years from now.
Sep. 25 at 6:56 p.m.
#46
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Quoting: GenXHockey
This is a bit of a misconception. His cap hit changes due to the missed time. But that inflated cap hit is charged only for the days that remain.

Meaning if he were signed for 1.5m the leafs would have that divided among the remaining time as his daily.


Exactly so that means it will go up slightly every day. With each day that passes after the regular season starts his salary cap hit increases. For example a $1.4 million AAV becomes a $1.407 million salary cap hit on Day 2. Then it becomes $1.414 million on Day 3, and so on.
Sep. 25 at 7:52 p.m.
#47
Formerly Jamiepo
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Quoting: kous
Exactly so that means it will go up slightly every day. With each day that passes after the regular season starts his salary cap hit increases. For example a $1.4 million AAV becomes a $1.407 million salary cap hit on Day 2. Then it becomes $1.414 million on Day 3, and so on.


No it doesn't. Cap isn't calculated yearly. It's calculated daily. 1.4m would always be his cap hit just divided over less days.

The nhl inflates his cap hit to get the new daily. Much like nylander. 10.278m was his first year cap hit. Due to missed time leafs were hit with 6.962m. If his cap hit wasn't inflated leafs would have only been charged 4m. Giving them an advantage by sitting nylander.
Sep. 25 at 10:09 p.m.
#48
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Quoting: GenXHockey
No it doesn't. Cap isn't calculated yearly. It's calculated daily. 1.4m would always be his cap hit just divided over less days.

The nhl inflates his cap hit to get the new daily. Much like nylander. 10.278m was his first year cap hit. Due to missed time leafs were hit with 6.962m. If his cap hit wasn't inflated leafs would have only been charged 4m. Giving them an advantage by sitting nylander.


Nylander cap hit if signed before the season would have been $7.5M (6 years x $45M). But since he signed it mid year the Leaf's got hit for $10.2M not $6.9M the first year and $6.9 the rest of the contract. The Leaf's were able to do that because they had lots of cap space, So the same would apply this year The 1st year of the contact will be higher and the rest will be lower.
Sep. 26 at 10:11 a.m.
#49
Formerly Jamiepo
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Quoting: kous
Nylander cap hit if signed before the season would have been $7.5M (6 years x $45M). But since he signed it mid year the Leaf's got hit for $10.2M not $6.9M the first year and $6.9 the rest of the contract. The Leaf's were able to do that because they had lots of cap space, So the same would apply this year The 1st year of the contact will be higher and the rest will be lower.


This is top to bottom incorrect. Had leafs been charged 10.2m they would not have been able to pay performance bonuses. Nylander also did not earn 45m it was actually 42m due to time missed. That is reflected in the cap throughout his contract.

If leafs leave 1.4m for Sandin that cap space accrues at the same rate as Sandin's cap hit. Sandin's cap hit will always be 1.4m regardless of how many days he misses. This ensures that leafs don't gain any advantage by having him sit.
Sep. 26 at 9:15 p.m.
#50
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Quoting: GenXHockey
This is top to bottom incorrect. Had leafs been charged 10.2m they would not have been able to pay performance bonuses. Nylander also did not earn 45m it was actually 42m due to time missed. That is reflected in the cap throughout his contract.

If leafs leave 1.4m for Sandin that cap space accrues at the same rate as Sandin's cap hit. Sandin's cap hit will always be 1.4m regardless of how many days he misses. This ensures that leafs don't gain any advantage by having him sit.


Here is an article from SI that explains that I am correct

https://www.si.com/nhl/maple-leafs/analysis/how-rasmus-sandin-can-gain-leverage-with-the-maple-leafs

In 2018, the Maple Leafs were involved in a contentious battle with restricted free agent William Nylander. It took until Dec. 1 — the final day the forward was eligible to play in the NHL that season — for both sides to reach a deal.

Although Nylander's contract called for a $6.96 AAV, his actual salary cap hit in 2018-19 increased to $10.277 million. This happened because the season was well underway and the cap hit was adjusted to reflect how many days had passed in the NHL regular season calendar.

With each day that passes after the regular season, the salary cap hit increases. For example. In a 200-day calendar, a $1.4 million AAV becomes a $1.407 million salary cap hit on Day 2. Then it becomes $1.414 million on Day 3, and so on.

In 2018, the Leafs had their remaining core players on entry-level contracts and had more than enough salary cap space to accommodate an inflated first-year cap hit from Nylander, but that's not the case this season. Every dollar counts and getting Sandin's situation locked up before the regular season not only benefits the player but helps the team get things under control.
 
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