Analytics Informed Cap Compliant Team

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Created by: pretzelcoatl

Team: 2022-23 Custom Team

Initial Creation Date: Sep. 24, 2022

Published: Sep. 24, 2022

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Using the WAR and WAR/$ I discussed in a previous post, as well as my personal goaltender preference for this challenge, here is the best possible team under the cap without ELCs according to a computer program I wrote.

The code started with the most valuable contracts as measured in my previous post. It then went through the rest of the contracts, from most to least valuable, and if it could upgrade the weakest player to one with a higher WAR under the cap, it did.

I'm not claiming this is the best team, or even the best team with this WAR model, but I thought it was an interesting experiment. Again, goalies were my choice and not the code's.

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

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ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
20	$82,500,000	$80,508,334	$0	$0	$1,991,666

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Kreider, Chris $6,500,000$6,500,000 LW NMC UFA - 5	Draisaitl, Leon $8,500,000$8,500,000 C, LW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 3	DeBrincat, Alex $6,400,000$6,400,000 LW, RW UFA - 1
Mangiapane, Andrew $5,800,000$5,800,000 RW, LW UFA - 3	Lindholm, Elias $4,850,000$4,850,000 C, RW UFA - 2	Pastrnak, David $6,666,667$6,666,667 RW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 1
Bratt, Jesper $5,450,000$5,450,000 RW, LW UFA - 1	Hintz, Roope $3,150,000$3,150,000 C UFA - 1	Buchnevich, Pavel $5,800,000$5,800,000 LW, RW, C M-NTC UFA - 3
Nelson, Brock $6,000,000$6,000,000 C, LW M-NTC UFA - 3	Thompson, Tage $1,400,000$1,400,000 C UFA - 1	Terry, Troy $1,450,000$1,450,000 RW UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Toews, Devon $4,100,000$4,100,000 LD UFA - 2	Liljegren, Timothy $1,400,000$1,400,000 RD RFA - 2	Shesterkin, Igor $5,666,667$5,666,667 G UFA - 3
Siegenthaler, Jonas $1,125,000$1,125,000 LD UFA - 1	Ruhwedel, Chad $800,000$800,000 RD UFA - 2	Francouz, Pavel $2,000,000$2,000,000 G UFA - 2
	Jensen, Nick $2,500,000$2,500,000 RD UFA - 1
van Riemsdyk, Trevor $950,000$950,000 RD UFA - 1

Sep. 24, 2022 at 8:01 p.m.

SociallyHawkward

Joined: Apr. 2019

Posts: 5,610

Likes: 5,718

Seems like a lot of money waisted on 4th liner Brock Nelson and no money allocated to the defense. Weird.

Sep. 24, 2022 at 8:23 p.m.

pretzelcoatl

Thread Starter

n.1 Topias Vilen fan

Joined: Jul. 2021

Posts: 5,910

Likes: 2,572

Quoting: SociallyHawkward

Seems like a lot of money waisted on 4th liner Brock Nelson and no money allocated to the defense. Weird.

Strange as it seems, Bacon's model actually likes Nelson quite a lot. He's worth 4.34 wins above replacement, and his WAR per million of 0.723 sits at 68th, beating Matthews' by 0.0003. It sounds totally bizarre, but if you take the WAR model at face value, Nelson is a better use of cap space than Matthews in this challenge.

As for the defense, there are a number of factors. First, defensemen on average have lower WAR and lower salaries. This is compounded by the very low wages defensive minded players make. To top it off, the best offensive defensemen are almost never underpaid. It's more optimal to have solid defense and more offensive firepower than to spread the elite players throughout the lineup.

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