Forums/Armchair-GM

Toews trade in 2023

Created by: Richard88
Initial Creation Date: Sep. 26, 2022
Published: Sep. 27, 2022
Team: 2023-24 Colorado Avalanche
Team Explanation
A trade like this would make a lot of sense for Colorado. Toews likely needs to get moved in 2023 for cap reasons, the the return would fill holes in the lineup with two cheap and young roster players, and give the Avs a 1st to restock the prospect pipeline or use for a TDL rental.

The future outlook of this roster would be looking good, as the only notable raise up in 2024 would be Podkolzin (RFA) which should be covered by the jump in cap, and possibly by Annunen replacing Francouz.
Free Agent Signings
RESERVE LISTYEARSCAP HIT
Stienburg, Matthew3$925,000
Behrens, Sean3$925,000
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Annunen, Justus2$800,000
Bowers, Shane1$800,000
Kaut, Martin1$800,000
Maltsev, Mikhail1$800,000
Ranta, Sampo1$800,000
Byram, Bowen3$5,000,000
Newhook, Alex3$3,500,000
Dermott, Travis2$1,500,000
Meyers, Ben2$2,000,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
Blidh, Anton1$800,000
Sedlak, Lukas1$800,000
Johnson, Erik1$1,000,000
Trades
1.
COL
  1. Dermott, Travis [RFA Rights]
  2. Podkolzin, Vasily
  3. 2023 1st round pick (VAN)
Additional Details:
A 1st, a middle 6 forward on an ELC, and a bottom pairing LHD to replace Toews.
VAN
  1. Toews, Devon
Additional Details:
BC native, so would be easy to extend. Quinn is moving to the right this season so Toews-Quinn could be their top pairing long-term.
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2023
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Logo of the VAN
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
2024
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
2025
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$83,500,000$83,431,667$0$850,000$68,333
Left WingCenterRight Wing
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Lehkonen, Artturi
$4,500,000
LW, RW
NTC
UFA - 4
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MacKinnon, Nathan
$12,600,000
C, RW
NMC
UFA - 8
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Rantanen, Mikko
$9,250,000
RW, C
NTC
UFA - 2
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Landeskog, Gabriel
$7,000,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 6
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Newhook, Alex
$3,500,000
C, LW
RFA
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Nichushkin, Valeri
$6,125,000
RW, LW
NMC
UFA - 7
Logo of the VAN
Podkolzin, Vasily
$925,000
LW, RW
RFA - 1
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Meyers, Ben
$2,000,000
LW, C
RFA
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Olausson, Oskar
$894,167
RW
RFA - 2
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Blidh, Anton
$800,000
LW, RW
UFA
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Sedlak, Lukas
$800,000
LW, C, RW
UFA
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O'Connor, Logan
$1,050,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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Byram, Bowen
$5,000,000
LD
RFA
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Makar, Cale
$9,000,000
RD
UFA - 4
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Georgiev, Alexandar
$3,400,000
G
UFA - 2
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Girard, Samuel
$5,000,000
LD/RD
UFA - 4
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Manson, Josh
$4,500,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 3
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Francouz, Pavel
$2,000,000
G
UFA - 1
Dermott, Travis
$1,500,000
LD/RD
RFA
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Johnson, Erik
$1,000,000
RD
UFA
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the COL
Maltsev, Mikhail
$800,000
C, LW
RFA
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Ranta, Sampo
$800,000
LW
RFA
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MacDermid, Kurtis
$987,500
LD/RD, LW
UFA - 1

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Sep. 27 at 4:53 a.m.
#1
BRUCE THERE IT IS
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as good as Towes is that price is to steep for Vancouver to pay, Towes being a LHD and his age is really not ideal and makes us not really consider this imho
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Sep. 27 at 6:01 a.m.
#2
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There is like a less than zero percent chance Toews gets traded. Far too valuable to the team
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Sep. 27 at 6:39 a.m.
#3
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
There is like a less than zero percent chance Toews gets traded. Far too valuable to the team


How can you be valuable in a teardown?
Sep. 27 at 6:49 a.m.
#4
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John 3 16
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
There is like a less than zero percent chance Toews gets traded. Far too valuable to the team


How do you stay under the cap in 2023 without moving Toews?

If your answer is Girard bear in mind that if you trade Girard you're risking having Toews walk in UFA in 2024 if you can't afford to re-sign him long-term, which would cripple the left side of the defense.
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Sep. 27 at 6:52 a.m.
#5
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John 3 16
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Quoting: theleano1
as good as Towes is that price is to steep for Vancouver to pay, Towes being a LHD and his age is really not ideal and makes us not really consider this imho


How do you foresee Vancouver fixing their D, which is among the worst in the league, without giving up something of value?

VAN are loaded with forwards and are seemingly trying to compete right now given that they just extended Miller, so I don't see why they wouldn't jump at the chance to add a top pairing Dman like Toews who also happens to be from BC.

Yes he's a LHS, but Quinn is moving to the right this season which seems to indicate that Vancouver are open to targeting a LHD and not necessarily being dead-set on a RHD, which makes sense given that there aren't any top pairing RHD's available.
Sep. 27 at 7:25 a.m.
#6
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Quoting: NJDevils1317
How can you be valuable in a teardown?


Teardown?
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Sep. 27 at 7:44 a.m.
#7
BRUCE THERE IT IS
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Quoting: Richard88
How do you foresee Vancouver fixing their D, which is among the worst in the league, without giving up something of value?

VAN are loaded with forwards and are seemingly trying to compete right now given that they just extended Miller, so I don't see why they wouldn't jump at the chance to add a top pairing Dman like Toews who also happens to be from BC.

Yes he's a LHS, but Quinn is moving to the right this season which seems to indicate that Vancouver are open to targeting a LHD and not necessarily being dead-set on a RHD, which makes sense given that there aren't any top pairing RHD's available.


To say Vancouver's D is one of the worst in the leauge is just simply not true, are they top 10 no, but they arent as bad as people make it to seem, while we are loaded with forwards I don't see Podkolzin getting dealt mangment is extremely high on him and he is getting better with each day, to improve our D I could see at most a guy like Hoglander getting dealt however I still think that's unlikely, there are going to be still some very good dmen on the market that are going to cost less then this, in severson or Sanhiem, Weeger will be a ufa this summer from the sounds of it which is another way we can solve it, I could see us trading picks and futures but doubt we will trade someone out of our top 6
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Sep. 27 at 7:52 a.m.
#8
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
Teardown?


Oh, sorry, my bad, I had been on a CHI link right before this. Brainfart on my part. Was thinking the other Toews.
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Sep. 27 at 8:06 a.m.
#9
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Quoting: Richard88
How do you stay under the cap in 2023 without moving Toews?

If your answer is Girard bear in mind that if you trade Girard you're risking having Toews walk in UFA in 2024 if you can't afford to re-sign him long-term, which would cripple the left side of the defense.


That's 100% a risk you take when Toews is the far more impactful player to your cup window than Girard and Girard has far more trade value to non-contender than Toews. If it comes to that of course. However Colorado has over 15M coming off the cap next year and Mac is eating 6.3M of that. Im also hesitant to say that Byram is worth 5M considering Dobson just signed for 4M. So lets say together they eat ~10.5M cap. That still leaves 4.5M cap to sign the rest of the guys. I for one think you are also paying Newhook and Myers far too much
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Sep. 27 at 8:09 a.m.
#10
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Quoting: NJDevils1317
Oh, sorry, my bad, I had been on a CHI link right before this. Brainfart on my part. Was thinking the other Toews.


I actually think J. Toews may end up in Colorado. I highly doubt they the Avs go the Mittelstadt strategy with Newhook, especially when they are cup defenders.
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Sep. 27 at 8:18 a.m.
#11
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It really is a very weak year for expiring centers, particularly on teams likely to sell. I doubt Monahan finds his game in MTL again. I'm going to imagine DET locks up Larkin as their leadership for the next 8 years.

The only big name worth more than J. Toews is Bo Horvat, and that is if VAN is way out and doesn't extend him (but I don't really understand their cap room plan). Haula might get something decent for a team looking for a 3C.
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Sep. 27 at 8:31 a.m.
#12
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John 3 16
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
That's 100% a risk you take when Toews is the far more impactful player to your cup window than Girard and Girard has far more trade value to non-contender than Toews. If it comes to that of course. However Colorado has over 15M coming off the cap next year and Mac is eating 6.3M of that. Im also hesitant to say that Byram is worth 5M considering Dobson just signed for 4M. So lets say together they eat ~10.5M cap. That still leaves 4.5M cap to sign the rest of the guys. I for one think you are also paying Newhook and Myers far too much


Regarding the RFA's I'm just erring on the high side of estimates here. It's definitely possible Byram get the Dobson contract, Newhook gets like $3mx2 like Necas, and Myers gets $500k less. You could also save an additional $900k by having a 22 man roster. If Annunen can take over from Francouz that's potentially another $1.1m too.

Ultimately the whole offseason plan is dependent on whether or not Newhook or Rantanen can take the 2C job. If they can't then Avs need to go shopping for one which will trade the cap outlook considerably.
Sep. 27 at 8:48 a.m.
#13
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Quoting: Richard88
Regarding the RFA's I'm just erring on the high side of estimates here. It's definitely possible Byram get the Dobson contract, Newhook gets like $3mx2 like Necas, and Myers gets $500k less. You could also save an additional $900k by having a 22 man roster. If Annunen can take over from Francouz that's potentially another $1.1m too.

Ultimately the whole offseason plan is dependent on whether or not Newhook or Rantanen can take the 2C job. If they can't then Avs need to go shopping for one which will trade the cap outlook considerably.


Necas has over 200 NHL games played and is a consistent 40+ point top 6 power forward. Assuming Newhook plays every game this season he will be at less than 160 games played and has not hit or paced 40 points once yet. He is also unlikely to be playing top 6 this year unless filling in for an injury so I doubt he earns more than ~2.5M next year. Meyers may not even make the NHL full time, thinking he gets more than 1M is a reach until he proves he's NHL caliber full time
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Sep. 27 at 8:52 a.m.
#14
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John 3 16
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
Necas has over 200 NHL games played and is a consistent 40+ point top 6 power forward. Assuming Newhook plays every game this season he will be at less than 160 games played and has not hit or paced 40 points once yet. He is also unlikely to be playing top 6 this year unless filling in for an injury so I doubt he earns more than ~2.5M next year. Meyers may not even make the NHL full time, thinking he gets more than 1M is a reach until he proves he's NHL caliber full time


Newhook is getting a long look at 2C per Bednar...

Fair on Meyer. I don't think it's unreasonable for him to put up ~25-30 points though in a 3rd line role (a role he's pencilled in for) which would put in line for a raise.
Sep. 27 at 9:03 a.m.
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Quoting: Richard88
How do you foresee Vancouver fixing their D, which is among the worst in the league, without giving up something of value?

VAN are loaded with forwards and are seemingly trying to compete right now given that they just extended Miller, so I don't see why they wouldn't jump at the chance to add a top pairing Dman like Toews who also happens to be from BC.

Yes he's a LHS, but Quinn is moving to the right this season which seems to indicate that Vancouver are open to targeting a LHD and not necessarily being dead-set on a RHD, which makes sense given that there aren't any top pairing RHD's available.


They're gonna throw the bag at Severson/Weeger/Gavrikov/Sanheim. Maybe try and take advantage of LA's situation and trade for one of their dmen too. There were whispers about Fabbro early in the offseason too so maybe that gets revisited depending on how Nashville's season goes.
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Sep. 27 at 9:16 a.m.
#16
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John 3 16
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Quoting: TheAlien
They're gonna throw the bag at Severson/Weeger/Gavrikov/Sanheim. Maybe try and take advantage of LA's situation and trade for one of their dmen too. There were whispers about Fabbro early in the offseason too so maybe that gets revisited depending on how Nashville's season goes.


Toews is better than all of those guys and anyone you could reasonably expect to pry out of LA. But that's a fine approach too I guess.
Sep. 27 at 9:37 a.m.
#17
LouiErikssonBurner
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Toews is really good but we aren’t trading a 2023 first and Podkolzin for him. UFA is a better option
Sep. 27 at 9:43 a.m.
#18
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
I actually think J. Toews may end up in Colorado. I highly doubt they the Avs go the Mittelstadt strategy with Newhook, especially when they are cup defenders.


Can you elaborate on the Middleshat strategy? These players' only comps are they were 1st round picks and went the college route. Their deployment/development track is way different. C.M has never been able to play with any defensive reliability or effort. Newhook embraces it and has been a pk guy at previous levels. Newhook is a beat in the gym and willing to put in the work to be dependable in either 2/3/4 center roles. Middleshat has to be undeservingly promoted because he is either going to be a top 6 guy or playing in Europe/KHL. While Newhook is young and a sophmore, he is a safe bet to put in at 2c. Having Landy and Nuch(when they're healthy) will be a solid 2nd line. Keep in mind, the Avs only needed faceoff help and 50-60 points out of Naz.
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Sep. 27 at 9:49 a.m.
#19
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Quoting: MeetYourMakar
Can you elaborate on the Middleshat strategy? These players' only comps are they were 1st round picks and went the college route. Their deployment/development track is way different. C.M has never been able to play with any defensive reliability or effort. Newhook embraces it and has been a pk guy at previous levels. Newhook is a beat in the gym and willing to put in the work to be dependable in either 2/3/4 center roles. Middleshat has to be undeservingly promoted because he is either going to be a top 6 guy or playing in Europe/KHL. While Newhook is young and a sophmore, he is a safe bet to put in at 2c. Having Landy and Nuch(when they're healthy) will be a solid 2nd line. Keep in mind, the Avs only needed faceoff help and 50-60 points out of Naz.


Buffalo traded away ROR partially because they thought Mittelstadt could replace him after a putting up 5 points in 6 games. The comparison is Colorado is a contender trying to force a player who very likely is not ready for a 2C role into the 2C role.
Sep. 27 at 10:00 a.m.
#20
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Quoting: Richard88
Toews is better than all of those guys and anyone you could reasonably expect to pry out of LA. But that's a fine approach too I guess.


Sure but I'd rather acquire someone slightly worse than move multiple high-end assets to acquire Toews. They don't really need an elite dman with how good their forwards and goaltending is, they just need a couple respectable top 4 dmen.
Sep. 27 at 1:25 p.m.
#21
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
Buffalo traded away ROR partially because they thought Mittelstadt could replace him after a putting up 5 points in 6 games. The comparison is Colorado is a contender trying to force a player who very likely is not ready for a 2C role into the 2C role.


Thank you for the reply. RoR had asked for a trade and was ready to sit out, it wasn't a move made willingly or because they had someone ready. Middleshat had games where he looked good(offensivly) but wasn't really put in a 2c role as he played horribly when they put him in as 3c/lw before sending him down. Reinhart was who they kept trying as a 2c(too early).
 
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