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Three Worst Contracts For Each Position

Created by: bluspy88
Team: 2022-23 Custom Team
Initial Creation Date: Sep. 27, 2022
Published: Sep. 27, 2022
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
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Some quick qualifiers:

I generally avoided putting any 2022 Free Agency signings here as its too early to tell how good/bad they will age. There is one very noticeable exception I will talk about.

Generally my thought process for each choice went like this: 1.) Consider the team's cap space and expectations, 2.) the player's performance while under this contract, and 3.) the player's age and years remaining. I also tried to avoid contracts with 1 year left, as they will not be long term problems for the team.

Centers: I went with Seguin, Kevin Hayes, and Pageau. These are all decent players, but none of them are really worth what they are being paid. Seguin and Hayes have dealt with injury, especially Hayes last season, and just aren't worth what they are being paid. Seguin's contract (in part) is helping hold up the Robertson deal, while Hayes is making a mediocre Flyers team have limited cap flexibility when they need to be rebuilding. Not to mention he is the type of player that will likely age poorly going into this contract. The same can be said for Cizikas. Cizikas is a great heart and soul guy, but 2.5 million dollars to a pretty physical bottom 6 center until he is 36 when they have things like the Barzal deal coming is risky. Cizikas has the lowest cap hit here, but the length really sold me over some other candidates. I want to stress, these guys have not played terribly, but just are not worth the contracts they are each earning right now. Honorable mentions: Charlie Coyle, Josh Bailey, JG Pageau. Notable exclusions include Duchene and Johansen as they had decent bounce back years, though Duchene's age and length are scary, and guys like Backstrom who will likely be LTIRed (mostly gets rid of the cap issues) and Kotkaniemi who is still 22.

Left Wing: I went with Jamie Benn, Anders Lee, and Jaden Schwartz. Benn is a great leader, age has simply caught up to him. Similar to Seguin (though I think Seguin has the better chance of regaining form), his cap hit is not worth what he is right now and is giving them cap issues with their next core. Lee is the Islanders captain and a good player, but this contract was rich when they gave it to him to keep him from leaving, and simply put: 46 points for 7 million isn't good enough. He's only once gotten above 60 points, and only twice above 50. He is 32, and under contract until 2026 when he will be 35. He could age poorly, and usually scoring is harder to regain as one ages. Speaking of aging poorly, Jaden Schwartz is looking to be an ugly contract for the Kraken. He hasn't played more than 70 games since 2019-20, and because of his injuries hasn't scored more than 30 points since then either. He also expires in 2026 at age 34, and though he could bounce back, two years of significant games lost to injury is a big concern. Not to mention, Seattle doesn't really have a Barzal-type player like Lee does to maybe give him a boost in stats, at least not right now. Honorable mentions: Jeff Skinner, Mike Hoffman, Tanner Pearson.

Right Wing: I went with Deslauriers, Oshie, and Kassian here. Oh boy, where do I start with Deslauriers. Similar to Cizikas, the cap hit itself isn't awful in a vacuum. But when you consider the team's cap situation, their realistic ambitions, and organizational depth/needs...oh boy. He will be 35 when his contract expires....in 2026....a career high of 15 points. TJ Oshie had been managing to mostly avoid a huge drop off for what he was producing, being a pretty consisent 45-50 point player for the Capitals. The problem is that he got a raise to nearly 6 million dollars, and this last year scored just 21 points in less than 50 games played. He is also 35 (soon to be 36), and his contract expires in two years when he will be 38. With the Capitals needing some new talent in the lineup, contracts like this will hamstring efforts going forward. Finially, we have Labanc. A curious case in that he is still rather young, and only has this year and next left. But its hard to ignore an under 10 point, under 25 games played season on a bad team that is San Jose right now. And similar to the Flyers, not only are they bad, they have very little cap space. While Labanc could certainly bounce back, right now that is looking very bad. Honorable mentions: Tyler Johnson (he would've beat out Oshie had Chicago not torn things down and have a decent amount of cap space both this year and next with Toews/Kane likely gone), Brendan Gallagher, Anthony Mantha.

Right-Hand Defensemen: Seth Jones, Erik Karlsson, and Rasmus Ristolainen. Jones is the opposite of Tyler Johnson for the Blackhawks: he is paid much more for a much longer time that will create issues for the team beyond the immediate future. Yes he can play pretty well offensively, but he is not worth 9.5 million, especially on a team that is rebuilding. Though the current GM didn't do this move, he is stuck with it. He will be 35 in 2030(!) when it expires. Erik Karlsson is a tragic cautionary tale of one of the best defensemen of this generation felled by injuries. He was better this year, but there is basically no way for him to justify 11.5 million until he is 37 in 2027 unless he plays at his old Norris Trophy levels. He also really throws a wrench in the Sharks trying to rebuild and maintain cap flexibility, as he is virtually untradeable (hence why Burns was traded instead). Finally, we have Chucky Two Trades' piece de resistance: Rasmus Ristolainen. 5 years at 5 million until 2027 when he is 32. Multiple assets moved to bring him in. He actually had a kind of ok year with the Flyers...by being -9, scoring 16 points, and missing almost 20 games. He tries very hard, but either that offense he sort of had was a fluke, he lost it, or the Flyers have beat it into his head that he needs to recreate the 70s glory days. Either way, he will be stuck there taking up cap space for a team that really needs it for years to come. Honorable mentions: Erik Gudbranson (he did have a good year last year to be fair, and he just signed so again I am trying to not judge contract that were just signed), Brent Burns (mostly his age, his performance has been ok and the retention helps), Tucker Poolman, Jacob Trouba, and Tyson Barrie. Also wanted to mention that Letang's contract will likely age poorly, but the Penguins are going on a last dance so I don't think its as relevant right now, plus he just had a great year.

Left-Handed Defensemen: Vlasic, Nurse, and Ekman-Larsson. Vlasic has just been a sad decline of one the league's formerly best defensive d-men. He is not worth 7 million until 2026 when he will be 39, plain and simple. Perhaps even more of a curse than EK's contract, though Vlasic stays healthier, he is the worse player. Look for a buyout down the road. For Nurse, this one feels mean because I think Nurse is a very good defenseman. But, is he a 9.25 million one? Probably not. And with Edmonton's cap structured the way it is, I think it will get dicey when they need to keep McDrai around. I understand the logic of it being the price to keep a good player around. I think it just eats up a lot of their space, and is less of a "he isn't good anymore" compared to a "its fine now but eventually will be an issue". Good player, overpaid. Finally there is OEL. Now, I think OEL played much better this last year in Vancouver, especially defensively. However, the Canucks want to take steps forward, and paying your 2LD almost 8 million dollars until he is 35 in 2027 will make that a little harder. If he can rediscover his offensive game a little (Hughes does neglect a huge need for it, but still), that would help. He isn't the worst Canucks d-man, but he is getting paid almost as much as Hughes and longer than Myers, Poolman, etc. Honorable mentions: Alec Martinez, Mike Matheson (though he has actually been better recently, I am wondering how much of that was the Pittsburgh effect), Ben Chiarot (he just signed so I am withholding judgment of that contract, but historically those kind of players to that contract are rough), Nick Leddy.

Goalies: Bobrovsky, Grubauer, and Murray. Now Bob did have a much better year this year than his start in Florida. However, he also is being paid 10 million dollars...I think Panthers fans would agree that he'd have to be Weekend at Bernie-ing Hasek out there to earn that. Plus, Florida's cap situation is bad for a contending team, and having some of that money to spread around the lineup wouold be great. He will be 37 in 2027 when it expires. Grubauer is a weird one, as he has been good before but this year was not so much. Its possible he will play better as Seattle hopefully improves, but right now its looking like Colorado helped inflate his stats a bit. He will be 35 in 2027 when his contract of just under 6 million expires. Finally there is Matt Murray. He wasn't good in Ottawa most of the time, and he tapered off at the end in Pittsburgh. It isn't the worst in a vacuum with Ottawa retaining, but for the Maple Leafs every dollar spent needs to be worth it. Since this was a trade and not a signing, I think this one qualifies by my rules. Murray needs to stay healthy and have a huge bounce back to his 2016-2019 form, or Toronto may be sitting on just over 4.5 million in cap space they could use. Honorable mentions: Petr Mrazek (though Chicago's expectations are low, I could see his numbers getting even uglier), Jordan Binnington (I respect what he did for St. Louis, but his numbers get worse every year and they also are cap strapped), and (in my opinion) with his new extension Spencer Knight. I get that he is supposed to be good but that's a lot of money for a guy who hasn't played much. Judgment reserved until he gets more action though.

Planning to do a best contracts too, please let me know any thoughts :)
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
18$999,999,999$117,318,929$0$0$882,681,070
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Dallas Stars
$9,500,000$9,500,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Dallas Stars
$9,850,000$9,850,000
C, RW
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Philadelphia Flyers
$1,750,000$1,750,000
LW, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 4
Logo of the New York Islanders
$7,000,000$7,000,000
LW
NTC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Philadelphia Flyers
$3,571,429$3,571,429
C
M-NTC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Washington Capitals
$5,750,000$5,750,000
RW
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Seattle Kraken
$5,500,000$5,500,000
LW
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the New York Islanders
$2,500,000$2,500,000
C
UFA - 5
Logo of the Arizona Coyotes
$3,200,000$3,200,000
RW
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Chicago Blackhawks
$9,500,000$9,500,000
RD
NMC
UFA - 8
Logo of the Florida Panthers
$10,000,000$10,000,000
G
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$10,000,000$10,000,000
RD
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Seattle Kraken
$5,900,000$5,900,000
G
NTC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Philadelphia Flyers
$5,100,000$5,100,000
RD
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$4,687,500$4,687,500
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$7,000,000$7,000,000
LD/RD
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$9,250,000$9,250,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 8
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$7,260,000$7,260,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 5

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Sep. 27, 2022 at 12:13 p.m.
#1
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prices is worse than murrays

voracek and wheeler worse than oshie
Sep. 27, 2022 at 12:21 p.m.
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I think you're overreacting a bit to the Deslauriers signing... He's a tough 4th liner that will protect players and can kill penalties. Worst case scenario, he's 500k in dead cap buried in the AHL.

I'd take his contract over Wheeler's.
Sep. 27, 2022 at 1:11 p.m.
#3
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You can actually answer this question mathematically, using WAR per dollar cap hit. You have to redefine replacement level as the worst player in the WAR model, in this case (Bacon's model) it's Phil Kessel. Using Wins Above Kessel per Million Dollars Cap Hit, the worst contracts are as follows:

LW: Benn, Panarin*, Lucic
C: Faksa, Backstrom, Toews
RW: Kessel, Wheeler, Kane**
LHD: Keith, Vlasic, Rielly
RHD: Myers, Pionk, Ristolainen

*My WAR data is for 2021-22 only, which was a very bad year for Panarin analytically
**Kane probably doesn't belong here, most WAR models fail to capture what makes him good
Sep. 27, 2022 at 1:37 p.m.
#4
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Edited Sep. 27, 2022 at 1:45 p.m.
Quoting: vr1995
prices is worse than murrays

voracek and wheeler worse than oshie


I think I stated this, but if I didn't, I didn't really include LTIR and LTIRetired players because they are going to be on LTIR and not actively against the cap or the team during the season as much as say, playing Vlasic every night because you can't get rid of him/any sort of relief. Agreed Price's is worse money wise, but that was my thinking.

Voracek and Wheeler both played more games and scored more points than Oshie, and are younger.
Sep. 27, 2022 at 1:38 p.m.
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Quoting: pretzelcoatl
You can actually answer this question mathematically, using WAR per dollar cap hit. You have to redefine replacement level as the worst player in the WAR model, in this case (Bacon's model) it's Phil Kessel. Using Wins Above Kessel per Million Dollars Cap Hit, the worst contracts are as follows:

LW: Benn, Panarin*, Lucic
C: Faksa, Backstrom, Toews
RW: Kessel, Wheeler, Kane**
LHD: Keith, Vlasic, Rielly
RHD: Myers, Pionk, Ristolainen

*My WAR data is for 2021-22 only, which was a very bad year for Panarin analytically
**Kane probably doesn't belong here, most WAR models fail to capture what makes him good


I think for the very last sentence you wrote is why using only that model doesn't capture the full picture. Plus, yes Tyler Myers is a worse player than EK65 right now, but he's also gone after next season. Karlsson and his 11.5 are there a very long time.
Sep. 27, 2022 at 1:39 p.m.
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Quoting: bluspy88
I think for the very last sentence you wrote is why using only that model doesn't capture the full picture. Plus, yes Tyler Myers is a worse player than EK65 right now, but he's also gone after next season. Karlsson and his 11.5 are there a very long time.


Kane is a unicorn, he's the only player in the entire league for whom WAR models are unreliable for non-injury reasons
Sep. 27, 2022 at 1:44 p.m.
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Quoting: MellowK
I think you're overreacting a bit to the Deslauriers signing... He's a tough 4th liner that will protect players and can kill penalties. Worst case scenario, he's 500k in dead cap buried in the AHL.

I'd take his contract over Wheeler's.


He is not a good PKer if you are an analytically inclined person, and even if you aren't I think the eye test proves that. I get your point about Wheeler, but let me ask you this: would you rather have an old Wheeler who still is gonna put up 50-60 points probably (lets say even 40 at lowest) for this year and 2023-24 at 8.25 and then he is gone, versus a plug who won't score even 10 goals f=or 20 points until 2026 at 2 million? Also consider: the Jets currently have about 4.6 million cap space according to CapFriendly and will accrue to about 20.5 at the deadline. The Flyers have....0$. And will accrue 0$. Not to mention, I think the Jets goal is to make the playoffs, the Flyers goal is....who even knows. But, if they are a basement team as projected then wouldn't having space to take on contracts for assets be better than blowing it on Deslauriers?
Sep. 27, 2022 at 1:50 p.m.
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Quoting: pretzelcoatl
Kane is a unicorn, he's the only player in the entire league for whom WAR models are unreliable for non-injury reasons


I do not think just using WAR is the way to evaluate the worth of contracts to a team.
 
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