I wanted to create a post to fix out some of the most common misconception about the whole Robo saga people seem to have, and provide a trade example I would probably consider, even though it likely is an overpayment from the other team's POV.
Misconception No. 1 - Robertson is in trade rumors
This is factually not true. There's been nothing that points to this direction. What we've got right now is rumors that a) our owner doesn't want to give a massive contract to a player coming off ELC, which considering Heiskanen's contract last year isn't fully true, and b) a rumor that Buffalo has sent an inquiry towards Dallas about Robertson. Most likely, Nill has just scrubbed the inquiry and let Adams know that he's not for sale.
Misconception No. 2 - DAL doesn't have the money to re-sign him
DAL can offer him a $8,5M dollar contract at any term Robo deems acceptable. This would require us to run a 21-man roster and relegating Khudobin to AHL, which would free cap at approximately $8,5M. DAL can also dump Khudobin to another team and spend a pick to do it, which would free up cap for up to almost $11M dollars.
Misconception No. 3 - Players like DeBrincat and Eichel set good trade examples for Robertson
Completely not true. Reportedly both BUF and CHI were very much shopping Eichel and DeBrincat respectively in order to look for futures. This is not the case with Dallas. They are not looking for futures, in fact they've just sold their 2023 1st in order to compete as well. They are trying to compete now. BUF wanted a return that netted them a solid C prospect because they'd be losing a center in the Eichel trade, and CHI wanted a return that netted them a high 2022 1st rounder because they had spent theirs on the Jones trade year prior. They valued these assets more than they'd objectively be worth, and at least with Chicago, you could argue that the return they ended up getting was at least subjectively very disappointing, at least based on what CHI fans were chirping about before the whole trade saga was met. The point is that using these as setting an example for any Robertson trade doesn't work, because the circumstances differ too much.
Misconception No. 4, albeit a bit subjective one - Robertson is not an elite / superstar level player
Advanced stats provided by sites like Evolving Hockey and JFresh hold Robertson as a Top5 player league-wide in 2022-23 season, and probably the best winger out of them all. This guy doesn't really have any weaknesses to his game, and given that he's only 23 he's very likely to develop even further. Objectively it's easy to say that he's a Top10 LW in the league, and only a step or two behind Kirill Kaprizov, who's widely considered to be the best LW in the entire game. Would Dallas or any team wanting to compete trade an asset as such, unless they specifically requested to be traded? Not a chance.
Well, say we land in a scenario where DAL looks at a potential Robertson trade - I personally don't see it happening, but let's just play with the thought. Well, there's two things to note.
Note 1 - trading Robertson in any scenario will likely be an instant L, we should make sure that the L is as small as possible. We should be looking at talent that can provide us something now, especially because...
Note 2 - with the lack of a 2023 first, we can't make it a trade where the main assets we get are futures, it would have to be a deal involving established talent, but also relatively young talent due to our solid prospect pool.
Thinking of the Tkachuk trade, we kinda have a similar scenario here. NJ adds something that they don't have in a power forward like Robo, and also give out guys they have had either trouble negotiating with in terms of a long term deal, or a guy they're unlikely to keep in the future. With DAL receiving two guys with only one year left (albeit one of them being a RFA), they also get a first since they need to risk negotiating them a new deal. However this time due to DAL having 8 NHL caliber defensemen after this trade, they include Harley in the exchange, and take in a young forward prospect in return as well. Khudobin is also included to make it work financially, and NJ also gets Studenic back as a token for taking a cap dump.
i agree with point 1 and 2! i think you did not defend really well your argument for point 3. the fact they are trying to trade him or not is a bit irrelevent if you want to gauge someone's value. and you only know someones true value when he's traded anyway. for point 4, you said it, its subjective!
but i think the mmost importabt part are point 1 and 2 anyway!. i will always support a post when someone put effort into it.
i agree with point 1 and 2! i think you did not defend really well your argument for point 3. the fact they are trying to trade him or not is a bit irrelevent if you want to gauge someone's value. and you only know someones true value when he's traded anyway. for point 4, you said it, its subjective!
but i think the mmost importabt part are point 1 and 2 anyway!. i will always support a post when someone put effort into it.
Thanks.
There's not much to defend in the argument point 3, it's just to provide that these examples do NOT work because the circumstances differ way too much between DAL of today and those two trades that have been set as examples in plenty of trades today. I will add this note to the description.
There's not much to defend in the argument point 3, it's just to provide that these examples do NOT work because the circumstances differ way too much between DAL of today and those two trades that have been set as examples in plenty of trades today. I will add this note to the description.
sure i i agree context is very important and one specific trade will not tell you for sure the value of a player. but you can take a look at the general to set your expectation, mainly that the last big talented winger (fiala, debrincat or huberdeau/tkatchuk to some extent or whoever else), did not get the king ransom people though they would get in the flat cap era. but ALL of this doesnt matter, because i really dont see robertson beong traded. we will just get a nylander situation at worst.
Devils decline. The Devils cannot afford both Bratt and JRob, and they'd prefer to keep Bratt and leverage their assets elsewhere. If JRob signs a one year bridge, Bratt refuses to extend with Jersey, and JRob is on the block this time next year, we can talk.
Stud doesn't add anything to this trade, he would just end up right back on waivers. He already did last season and the Devils have even less spots open now.
Assuming Robertson is looking for 9m+, the Devils can't afford to take back Dobby. So there's no "making it work financially", it just works for Dallas.
Robertson also isn't a "power forward"... he's just tall. He's as much of a power forward as Zacha was for the Devils.
And the basis behind this trade is really a "behind closed doors" type of deal, which is hard to evaluate. It's all just speculation what the disconnect between Bratt/Fitz and Robertson/Nill is. If Fitz still feels confident that he can get Bratt to stay long term, there's no chance he makes this trade, if he then there is a basis to be had here.
The Harley/Stillman/Foote as throw ins is just arbitrary and more "it just works for Dallas". Devils don't need LHD.
Trade should just be simplified to Bratt+Severson+2023 1st for Robertson as a Tkachuk comp. Which I personally wouldn't do.
sure i i agree context is very important and one specific trade will not tell you for sure the value of a player. but you can take a look at the general to set your expectation, mainly that the last big talented winger (fiala, debrincat or huberdeau/tkatchuk to some extent or whoever else), did not get the king ransom people though they would get in the flat cap era. but ALL of this doesnt matter, because i really dont see robertson beong traded. we will just get a nylander situation at worst.
Context indeed matters, and the interesting thing to note is that all of these trades have been done not because of getting good value, but rather because of other underlying circumstances, whether it's team performance one (CHI wanting to rebuild), whether it's financial one (Fiala, Buchnevich, as well as Huberdeau and Tkachuk to an extent) or whether it's just the team and player having their relationship turn sour (Eichel). None of these added contexts behind the trades apply to Robertson, as that's what bugs me in all of these disappointing Robo offers that are now plaguing this site.
Devils decline. The Devils cannot afford both Bratt and JRob, and they'd prefer to keep Bratt and leverage their assets elsewhere. If JRob signs a one year bridge, Bratt refuses to extend with Jersey, and JRob is on the block this time next year, we can talk.
Stud doesn't add anything to this trade, he would just end up right back on waivers. He already did last season and the Devils have even less spots open now.
Assuming Robertson is looking for 9m+, the Devils can't afford to take back Dobby. So there's no "making it work financially", it just works for Dallas.
Robertson also isn't a "power forward"... he's just tall. He's as much of a power forward as Zacha was for the Devils.
And the basis behind this trade is really a "behind closed doors" type of deal, which is hard to evaluate. It's all just speculation what the disconnect between Bratt/Fitz and Robertson/Nill is. If Fitz still feels confident that he can get Bratt to stay long term, there's no chance he makes this trade, if he then there is a basis to be had here.
The Harley/Stillman/Foote as throw ins is just arbitrary and more "it just works for Dallas". Devils don't need LHD.
Trade should just be simplified to Bratt+Severson+2023 1st for Robertson as a Tkachuk comp. Which I personally wouldn't do.
Hmm. Actual fair points. That's really rare these days, I can't really debate on these.
There's not much to defend in the argument point 3, it's just to provide that these examples do NOT work because the circumstances differ way too much between DAL of today and those two trades that have been set as examples in plenty of trades today. I will add this note to the description.
I mean, one of the comparable you’ve chosen did have a semi-broken neck, so that’s not exactly gonna be anywhere similar to Robo’s value.
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