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Evolving Hockey Projections

Created by: Byrr
Team: 2022-23 Custom Team
Initial Creation Date: Oct. 3, 2022
Published: Oct. 3, 2022
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
36$82,500,000$231,580,571$0$4,275,000-$149,080,571
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$8,460,250$8,460,250
C
UFA - 2
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$6,300,000$6,300,000
C
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$8,000,000$8,000,000
C
UFA - 8
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$9,000,000$9,000,000
LW
UFA - 4
Logo of the Washington Capitals
$9,500,000$9,500,000
LW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Nashville Predators
$9,059,000$9,059,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
$8,700,000$8,700,000
C
NMC
UFA - 3
---Play, offs---
$750,000$750,000
---Play, offs---
$750,000$750,000
Logo of the St. Louis Blues
$1,875,000$1,875,000
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the New York Rangers
$11,642,857$11,642,857
LW
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Dallas Stars
$9,850,000$9,850,000
C, RW
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the New York Islanders
$7,000,000$7,000,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$8,250,000$8,250,000
RW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$9,750,000$9,750,000
LW
NMC
UFA - 7
Logo of the Arizona Coyotes
$5,850,000$5,850,000
RW, C
UFA - 4
Logo of the Philadelphia Flyers
$800,000$800,000
C
RFA - 1
Logo of the Chicago Blackhawks
$2,625,000$2,625,000
RW
NMC
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,640,250$11,640,250
C
UFA - 2
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$5,900,000$5,900,000
LW, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Florida Panthers
$9,500,000$9,500,000
RW
UFA - 8
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$12,500,000$12,500,000
C
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Boston Bruins
$2,500,000$2,500,000 (Performance Bonus$2,500,000$2M)
C
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Vegas Golden Knights
$9,500,000$9,500,000
RW
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$9,500,000$9,500,000
C, RW
UFA - 8
Logo of the Seattle Kraken
$897,500$897,500 (Performance Bonus$925,000$925K)
C
RFA - 2
---Play, offs---
$750,000$750,000
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$5,250,000$5,250,000
C, LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$8,205,714$8,205,714
LW
UFA - 6
---Play, offs---
$750,000$750,000
Logo of the Detroit Red Wings
$6,100,000$6,100,000
C
NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Los Angeles Kings
$11,000,000$11,000,000
RD
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$6,000,000$6,000,000
LD/RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Anaheim Ducks
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
C, LW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$2,500,000$2,500,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$10,000,000$10,000,000
RD
NMC
UFA - 5

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Oct. 3, 2022 at 12:30 p.m.
#1
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Oct. 3, 2022 at 12:35 p.m.
#2
Leafs Sufferer
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Oh yay, Tampa again.
Oct. 3, 2022 at 12:39 p.m.
#3
Lets Go Blues
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They've got the Blues dropping from 109 pts in 2021-22 to 89 pts. I guess Ville Husso should've won the MVP last year. Which is ironic since he was probably a net negative in their 2021-22 projections.
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Oct. 3, 2022 at 12:40 p.m.
#4
KFTW
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Evolving Hockey on drugs
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Oct. 3, 2022 at 12:45 p.m.
#5
Thread Starter
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Edited Oct. 3, 2022 at 12:51 p.m.
Quoting: A_K
They've got the Blues dropping from 109 pts in 2021-22 to 89 pts. I guess Ville Husso should've won the MVP last year. Which is ironic since he was probably a net negative in their 2021-22 projections.


Blues have outperformed analytics and last year in particular because they scored on around 6% more shots than they were expected to. That's a very hard mark to sustain and those tend to correct toward expected. Worse goal scoring and much worse goaltending would have a big swing in points. Blues had a sub .500 points % last season in the games Binnington started and his safety net is gone.
Oct. 3, 2022 at 12:50 p.m.
#6
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Rangers and Blues missing the playoffs, Devils and Kraken in? That's bold.

But projecting New Jersey 2nd in the division is mind boggling.
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Oct. 3, 2022 at 12:55 p.m.
#7
KFTW
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Quoting: CD282
Rangers and Blues missing the playoffs, Devils and Kraken in? That's bold.

But projecting New Jersey 2nd in the division is mind boggling.


Also Panthers and Bruins are way too high in their points predictions compared to the injuries Boston has and what Florida lost
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Oct. 3, 2022 at 12:56 p.m.
#8
Lets Go Blues
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Quoting: Byrr
Blues have outperformed analytics and last year in particular because they scored on around 6% more shots than they were expected to. That's a very hard mark to sustain and those tend to correct toward expected. Worse goal scoring and much worse goaltending would have a big swing in points.


Well then I'm just glad they get to actually play the games to see what happens. I know that they overperformed their xG in most models and they relied on very good special teams numbers. But realistically, they lost 2 players from last year, a goalie who prior to the great numbers he posted last year had -6 GSAx in 17 GP, and a winger who did most of his damage on the PP and loved to take bad penalties. I can't imagine that they drop 20 standings points - not sure who in the central is going to overtake them - but we'll see.
CD282 liked this.
Oct. 3, 2022 at 1:19 p.m.
#9
mokumboi
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Holy crap, I would be mortified to post this abject nonsense.
Oct. 3, 2022 at 1:22 p.m.
#10
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I could see everything here except NJD finishing 2nd in the Metro. I can see St Louis being sunk by Binnington underperforming, I can see the Rangers falling out with Kreider cooling down and Shesterkin being human. I can see Seattle making the playoffs with the additions of Burakovsky, Bjorkstrand, Schultz and a return to form of Grubauer. I understand most of this. NJD 2nd is my biggest gripe here
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Oct. 3, 2022 at 1:26 p.m.
#11
mokumboi
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Quoting: Byrr
Blues have outperformed analytics and last year in particular because they scored on around 6% more shots than they were expected to. That's a very hard mark to sustain and those tend to correct toward expected. Worse goal scoring and much worse goaltending would have a big swing in points. Blues had a sub .500 points % last season in the games Binnington started and his safety net is gone.


The Blues constantly outperforming analytic projections (again, this is a SUBJECTIVE model) tells you what you need to know about the soundness and completeness of the projections. If I got something badly wrong so many times about the same teams (no, it's not just the Blues this happens with), I'd probably check my damn formula at some point.

As for the Blues scoring acumen, they shot high percentages because they play for high percentage shots by policy. There's a very good contextual reason for why they shoot a high percentage, and that's on top of the fact that they just have a lot of good shooters and several very clever passers. That isn't suddenly going to vanish. But we can always circle back next year after they shoot a high percentage and "outperform expectations" yet again. tears of joy
Oct. 3, 2022 at 1:30 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: mokumboi
The Blues constantly outperforming analytic projections (again, this is a SUBJECTIVE model) tells you what you need to know about the soundness and completeness of the projections. If I got something badly wrong so many times about the same teams (no, it's not just the Blues this happens with), I'd probably check my damn formula at some point.

As for the Blues scoring acumen, they shot high percentages because they play for high percentage shots by policy. There's a very good contextual reason for why they shoot a high percentage, and that's on top of the fact that they just have a lot of good shooters and several very clever passers. That isn't suddenly going to vanish. But we can always circle back next year after they shoot a high percentage and "outperform expectations" yet again. tears of joy


The blues do constantly outperform analytic projections but last year was even more than they normally do. Even if that shooting drops down to their normal results of 1-2% better than expected, thats a big drop in goals. That's also only at even strength. Somewhere around 75% of goals scored on the Blues PP went through Perron at some point, a full 20% more than the next highest player. Its a unit that ran through Perron and should be expected to decline as well without him.

The Blues do play for high percentage shots but they aren't the first team to do that and they won't be the last. None of those teams have sustained the kind of performance the Blues put on last season. Between that and the expected weakening of the PP without Perron, that's where the Blues are expected to lose a good amount of offense this season. Between that loss of offense and not having a Vezina candidate show up out of nowhere, this season could be night and day for the Blues.
Oct. 3, 2022 at 1:36 p.m.
#13
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Quoting: Byrr
Blues have outperformed analytics and last year in particular because they scored on around 6% more shots than they were expected to. That's a very hard mark to sustain and those tend to correct toward expected. Worse goal scoring and much worse goaltending would have a big swing in points. Blues had a sub .500 points % last season in the games Binnington started and his safety net is gone.


On top of this the Blues power play also performed decently above expectation.

Though I do think Minnesota will have a much bigger regression this year due to over performance from some players last year and the loss of Fiala. I think it's also fair to say that their cushion in net is a bit questionable. I could easily see them sitting 4th instead.

The Kraken I really can't see sitting that high, nor the Bolts that low. I don't see how you punish the loss of McDonagh and bot punish the loss of Fiala.

I like Vegas in the top 3, regardless of their team technically getting worse on paper Bruce Cassidy is a hell of a coach and a full season of Eichel should be huge
Oct. 3, 2022 at 2:00 p.m.
#14
mokumboi
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Edited Oct. 3, 2022 at 2:06 p.m.
Quoting: Byrr
The blues do constantly outperform analytic projections but last year was even more than they normally do. Even if that shooting drops down to their normal results of 1-2% better than expected, thats a big drop in goals. That's also only at even strength. Somewhere around 75% of goals scored on the Blues PP went through Perron at some point, a full 20% more than the next highest player. Its a unit that ran through Perron and should be expected to decline as well without him.

The Blues do play for high percentage shots but they aren't the first team to do that and they won't be the last. None of those teams have sustained the kind of performance the Blues put on last season. Between that and the expected weakening of the PP without Perron, that's where the Blues are expected to lose a good amount of offense this season. Between that loss of offense and not having a Vezina candidate show up out of nowhere, this season could be night and day for the Blues.


The Blues PP1 runs through Krug.

Heh. Yeah there's always some supposedly reasonable factors and hypotheticals to support the Blues slipping hard most every season, and how has that worked out so far? tears of joy Even their worst slip in recent memory was due to an extended Biblical injury crisis... and they still were a solid playoff team anyway.

But again, it's not just the Blues this happens with. At some point one simply need to recognize these formulas aren't gospel, they require context and improvements.
Oct. 3, 2022 at 2:50 p.m.
#15
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Quoting: mokumboi
The Blues PP1 runs through Krug.

Heh. Yeah there's always some supposedly reasonable factors and hypotheticals to support the Blues slipping hard most every season, and how has that worked out so far? tears of joy Even their worst slip in recent memory was due to an extended Biblical injury crisis... and they still were a solid playoff team anyway.

But again, it's not just the Blues this happens with. At some point one simply need to recognize these formulas aren't gospel, they require context and improvements.


Predicting the future is never gospel and especially not in the professional sport most heavily influenced by 'luck'. No one will be able to predict the point totals of 32 teams after an 82 game season, the models just get it closer to right than anything else usually.
Oct. 3, 2022 at 3:21 p.m.
#16
MisstheWhalers
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Could see a lot of these teams not meeting these projections.
Oct. 3, 2022 at 3:44 p.m.
#17
mokumboi
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Quoting: Byrr
Predicting the future is never gospel and especially not in the professional sport most heavily influenced by 'luck'. No one will be able to predict the point totals of 32 teams after an 82 game season, the models just get it closer to right than anything else usually.


Nah, the better ones, or really the luckier ones by your logic, get it right a little over 50% of the time. Plenty of people not relying on analytics do that. But back to the point of the thread, this looks a whole lot like a projection that is going to age poorly. There's a bunch of wacky stuff in here.
 
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