Not even a slight chance the Jets consider a 34 YO rental as part of the return.

It could potentially be Beauvillier then.

A meh, rental bottom six winger isn't an enticing piece.

That piece isn't meant to be enticing. it is meant to make the trade work in regards to cap. The 2 first round picks are what are enticing.

Two mid to late firsts aren't enticing when Winnipeg gets similar value for Dubois as a rental at the TDL.

Wow overpay for PLD.

That isn't part of the payment. That is to make the salary work and at two firsts you're definitely going to take something like that

This seems like an overpay from here

It's not close to an overpay. If the Islanders want to dump salary they need to compensate Winnipeg to take it on, or they can move it elsewhere.

Two mid to late firsts, especially when you want the Jets to wait a year for one isn't even really equal to what the Jets get for Dubois as a rental at the TDL. So, this would hold no interest to Winnipeg.

I think you overrate the likely return for him.

It’s not MTL, so I don’t see PLD signing that.

And frankly, if all it took to get him signed long term was an 8x8, he would’ve been signed already.

A first and good prospect is a pretty standard deadline return for much lesser, much older players than Dubois, so I can't see him fetching less.

Why do you think he would fetch less than the standard TDL return?

I look passed the player and focus on those two first round picks
Im also a casual islanders fan (my dad is a huge fan) and I like Bailey a lot. I like Beauvillier too

Isle's don't need another C with Barzal/Nelson/Pageau all signed to term and Raty in the AHL ready to step up in the next couple years. I don't love the idea of trading for another C to shove him (or one of the Cs currently on the team) out of position; I'd rather just use those assets and trade for a guy who naturally plays the wing. There's also the sword hanging over your head with a PLD trade - you have to trade him knowing that there's a strong possibility he leaves at 12:01 AM on 7/1/2024.

That being said, Winnipeg also probably gets a better package back for him than this - I feel like they could get a 1st and a strong prospect/additional future 1st rounder for PLD without having to take back a bad contract, at the very least. Both sides probably pass because it doesn't really fit either of their needs.

Yeah, they're okay players and the picks are alright. But it's just extremely unlinkey the Jets decide to wait a year for a mid first just to gain an older rental, when they can get at least the same value for Dubois as a pure rental and not need to wait an extra year for a pick.

There just isn't enough incentive for Winnipeg to wait that extra year. But yes that is what the OP is trying to do, get you to accept a below market value package based on most fans overvaluing of magic bean first round picks.