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Calgary Flames signed MacKenzie Weegar (8 Years / $6,250,000 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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Oct. 7, 2022 at 2:05 p.m.
#26
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Quoting: AndrewLadd
Got a feeling this one won’t age well


No one is asking it to age well, similarly to the Huberdeau and Kadri deals. If GM's signed deals with 6 - 8 year time lines they'd never get a deal done. This is all in for the now and either leave the pieces for the next GM or go into a deep dive rebuild
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Oct. 7, 2022 at 2:06 p.m.
#27
gavinray
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Good deal for the first 4 years but might not age well afterwards. Had to be done.
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Oct. 7, 2022 at 2:07 p.m.
#28
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Quoting: DongLord23
Florida got a guy in his prime locked up for 8 years. Calgary got 2 guys out of their prime locked for 8 years.

These contracts are why Florida traded them. They didn't want to give out these contracts. I don't get how people don't understand this.


When did a 28 year old defenseman and a 115 point forward become "out of their prime"? Weird take for sure.
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Oct. 7, 2022 at 2:09 p.m.
#29
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Quoting: yycofred
When did a 28 year old defenseman and a 115 point forward become "out of their prime"? Weird take for sure.


When do you think a player's prime is? In their 30s lol? A player's prime is usually 23-28.

Weegar starts at 29. Hubey starts at 30.
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Oct. 7, 2022 at 2:13 p.m.
#30
torontos finest
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Quoting: DongLord23
When do you think a player's prime is? In their 30s lol? A player's prime is usually 23-28.

Weegar starts at 29. Hubey starts at 30.


Most players peak between 24-31. Defenseman especially can have peak years later than forwards.

Contract is fine because Calgary wants to win now and Weegar's playstyle won't ruin his body.
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Oct. 7, 2022 at 2:14 p.m.
#31
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Quoting: DongLord23
Makes no sense. Tkachuk is in his prime at 24. How is that close to the same value as a 30 year old winger on a bigger contract?

Weird how the big analytics guy that's against giving older players big contracts thinks this is smart now. I guess it's smart when it's the team you root for lol.


Obviously the whole trade is a big bet on age.

But Florida gave a tonne of today value up to get the younger stud.

Huberdeau was 5th in mvp voting this past year. 5th! Tkachuk had a single last mvp place vote

Huberdeau is also back to back second team left wing (Tkachuk is last year's second team rw)

So in huberdeau alone they got back a guy who today is literally as good or better than Tkachuk.

For the difference in age they got a first pairing defender in his prime (he's younger at 28) a first and a good prospect.

The reason the trade was made is obvious. Huberdeau is a stud leaving his prime and Tkachuk is a stud entering his. But Florida paid through the teeth for that.

Who wins? I'm leaning 50/50. But there's Gamble's both ways (I do HATE the term on huberdeau but find it fascinating all the people who wanted to pay Gaudreau and don't like the Huberdeau contract. Huberdeau is better than Johnny hockey and close in age)
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Oct. 7, 2022 at 2:17 p.m.
#32
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Quoting: DongLord23
When do you think a player's prime is? In their 30s lol? A player's prime is usually 23-28.

Weegar starts at 29. Hubey starts at 30.


Defenseman notoriously peak later in their careers. 12 of the top 20 D man just on Fantasypros are 28+, Huberdeau has been an elite talent for a decade in the league, you think he just falls off a cliff because he's 30?
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Oct. 7, 2022 at 2:17 p.m.
#33
Phil
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Who's voting no on this? This is a fantastic deal for CGY, and if it doesn't age well in the final 6-8 years his cap will be still be favorable w/ the cap increase.
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Oct. 7, 2022 at 2:28 p.m.
#34
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Quoting: mondo
Most players peak between 24-31. Defenseman especially can have peak years later than forwards.

Contract is fine because Calgary wants to win now and Weegar's playstyle won't ruin his body.


That's not really true.

overall-war-f_d.png

Decline usually starts at 29. Defenceman usually decline earlier. Think of all the guys like Subban, Vlasic, Ekman-Larsson etc... Very few players can keep it up in their 30s. Those guys are usually HOF talent players like Josi / Doughty.
Oct. 7, 2022 at 2:29 p.m.
#35
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Quoting: yycofred
Defenseman notoriously peak later in their careers. 12 of the top 20 D man just on Fantasypros are 28+, Huberdeau has been an elite talent for a decade in the league, you think he just falls off a cliff because he's 30?


No they don't lol. Idk why people say this. This isn't fantasy hockey lmao.

overall-war-f_d.png

Nobody said he's gonna fall of a cliff. He's just gonna gradually decline.
Oct. 7, 2022 at 2:35 p.m.
#36
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Summer of Brad!
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Oct. 7, 2022 at 2:37 p.m.
#37
torontos finest
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Quoting: DongLord23
That's not really true.

overall-war-f_d.png

Decline usually starts at 29. Defenceman usually decline earlier. Think of all the guys like Subban, Vlasic, Ekman-Larsson etc... Very few players can keep it up in their 30s. Those guys are usually HOF talent players like Josi / Doughty.


I'm going to cry foul on a WAR chart where the data cut off was 6 years ago.

Weegar may not be worth the 6.25 price tag by the time he hits his middle 30s but he excels in all the things that keep longevity. Hasn't had any major injuries either.
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Oct. 7, 2022 at 2:41 p.m.
#38
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Quoting: DongLord23
Makes no sense. Tkachuk is in his prime at 24. How is that close to the same value as a 30 year old winger on a bigger contract?

Weird how the big analytics guy that's against giving older players big contracts thinks this is smart now. I guess it's smart when it's the team you root for lol.


Exactly. Even if Huberdeau is worth 90% of Matthew Tkachuk now, what will he be worth in 3 years? 6 years? I think CGY made the best of a difficult situation, but this isn't the fleecing everyone seems to think it is.
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Oct. 7, 2022 at 2:44 p.m.
#39
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Quoting: mondo
I'm going to cry foul on a WAR chart where the data cut off was 6 years ago.

Weegar may not be worth the 6.25 price tag by the time he hits his middle 30s but he excels in all the things that keep longevity. Hasn't had any major injuries either.


How can you evaluate how contracts age that were signed a year ago? You need time to evaluate these things.

I just don't get how saying "Most players peak between 24-31" with no data is sound, but a chart with a huge sample size isn't a good way to look at things. Makes no sense.

"Weegar may not be worth the 6.25 price tag by the time he hits his middle 30s but he excels in all the things that keep longevity. Hasn't had any major injuries either." This same exact thing is said every time a player signs a deal like this.
Oct. 7, 2022 at 2:45 p.m.
#40
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CGY's Cup window is wide open for the next 4-5 years. Hopefully for their sake, the cap increases substantially during that timeframe. Everyone seems to expect it will, but we never know what will happen. I think they made the right call, but it's always a huge gamble when you pay big money to older players.
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Oct. 7, 2022 at 2:48 p.m.
#41
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Quoting: DongLord23
No they don't lol. Idk why people say this. This isn't fantasy hockey lmao.

overall-war-f_d.png

Nobody said he's gonna fall of a cliff. He's just gonna gradually decline.


A chart from an article written in 2017.. did you just google something to fit your answer? No one is asking this deal to look good in year 6 through 8, no one thinks Treliving signed it to build a juggernaut for the 2030 season.

As opposed to your groundbreaking stats from 6 years ago, would you not say a list of the top defenders in terms of fantasy stats is a pretty fair representation of how people think they'll perform this season? You think there's a guy left off that list that would be in consideration for the Norris and such? If there is, let me know.
Oct. 7, 2022 at 2:59 p.m.
#42
KissMyAsthma
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I'm annoyed at how well Treliving has done. This just seems unfair.
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Oct. 7, 2022 at 3:16 p.m.
#43
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Let's Go Blue Jays !

Contract signing was a "W", sign early, if he reached UFA next summer he would have gotten more money.

Better than S. Jones and D. Nurse deals.
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Oct. 7, 2022 at 3:22 p.m.
#44
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Quoting: DongLord23
Makes no sense. Tkachuk is in his prime at 24. How is that close to the same value as a 30 year old winger on a bigger contract?

Weird how the big analytics guy that's against giving older players big contracts thinks this is smart now. I guess it's smart when it's the team you root for lol.


I think Huberdeau’s contract is bad , but at best this Weegar contract is a fair contract. He turns 30 in the 1st year of the deal and his top comps are Brent seabrook and Anton Stralman. I think he’ll continue to be an elite defenseman for the next 3 years but it’s possible he falls off a cliff by the time he’s 32-33 YO.
Oct. 7, 2022 at 3:22 p.m.
#45
You know nothing JS
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Edited Oct. 7, 2022 at 8:36 p.m.
Calgary gambled on 2 high profile UFA and won the trade.

I initially said Florida won the trade because I thought they would go to free agency and the GM would loose them for nothing if they were in the playoffs.

Calgary will be contenders in the years to come. Tkachuck brothers will play against each other a lot. Everybody wins!
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Oct. 7, 2022 at 3:28 p.m.
#46
torontos finest
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Quoting: DongLord23
How can you evaluate how contracts age that were signed a year ago? You need time to evaluate these things.

I just don't get how saying "Most players peak between 24-31" with no data is sound, but a chart with a huge sample size isn't a good way to look at things. Makes no sense.

"Weegar may not be worth the 6.25 price tag by the time he hits his middle 30s but he excels in all the things that keep longevity. Hasn't had any major injuries either." This same exact thing is said every time a player signs a deal like this.


Because "prime years" is a very subjective term and varies from player to player. You can't just slap your catch-all statistic on top of their performance and act like the change in the number is a defined range for the term. If you took the chart at face value, you'd come to the conclusion that defenseman drop off after 23, which isn't really a reflection of a defenseman's career path. Weegar played his first NHL game at 23.

Saying "Most players peak between 24-31" isn't a scientific conclusion but instead a reflection to account for all the variables on what "prime years" would actually mean. A great portion of NHL prospects float around in the minors until 22-24. Most NHL athletes enter their peak physical condition in their late 20s. The mid to late 20s is when most quality NHL players are looking to make their "retire at 40" contracts so physiologically they're putting in more effort and commitment during these years. The exact year(s) a player will vary but in the majority of cases, it's going to happen in this age range.

Weegar is definitely going to decline during this contract, the 30s aren't very kind to a lot of defenseman as they start to lose footspeed, the physical toll of the game starts to show it's wear and lingering injury problems which weren't an issue when they were younger start to compound. Paying a defenseman through their 30s is always a risk, but I've believed Weegar is the sort of defenseman who, barring any major injury, would be able to translate his game so that he still has use and viability of his team.

"This same exact thing is said every time a player signs a deal like this." I don't see what's wrong with saying this. I can't go 8 years into the future to exactly predict how his career will turn out. Right now, he looks like the kind of player who can see out his deal in some form. Any of number of things could happen between now and then. You need to remember that this contract isn't one where they're expecting a 37 year old Weegar to help to get to a cup, they want the 28 through 32 year old Weegar to help them get there. The Flames have only so much cap room to allocate and if saving 2 or 3 million on his contract at the cost of an extra 2 or 3 years is what it takes to have a team to get them 16 wins in the playoffs, so be it.
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Oct. 7, 2022 at 3:30 p.m.
#47
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Quoting: yycofred
A chart from an article written in 2017.. did you just google something to fit your answer? No one is asking this deal to look good in year 6 through 8, no one thinks Treliving signed it to build a juggernaut for the 2030 season.

As opposed to your groundbreaking stats from 6 years ago, would you not say a list of the top defenders in terms of fantasy stats is a pretty fair representation of how people think they'll perform this season? You think there's a guy left off that list that would be in consideration for the Norris and such? If there is, let me know.


What a lazy argument. This is a huge sample size from 8 years how players age. This is from 2019 https://rpubs.com/cjtdevil/nhl_aging. Same thing. Less players are even playing in their 30s from before. Game has gotten way faster. Feel free to show me some data of defenceman all peaking in their 30s.

Nobody is talking about 2030. We're talking about 3 years from now.

Absolutely not. Fantasy hockey points = being good at hockey. Ristolainen was a great fantasy hockey pick and a terrible on ice player. Same with guys like Tyson Barrie (8th best fantasy defenceman in 20/21). Extremely overvalues PP production / hits. Just saying, "yep I looked at the top fantasy players and Josi is #1 so that means all defenceman peak in their 30s" makes no sense lmao. You're just looking at exceptions and ignoring the rule.
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Oct. 7, 2022 at 3:37 p.m.
#48
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Quoting: Rooney
This is around what I would have predicted. Good deal for both sides. Gotta think if all goes well this season, CGY wins this deal...and I had the complete opposite opinion when it happened.


I think in the respect of Calgary wanting to win now they win. Longterm like when these contracts expire i think florida wins the deal. So calgary wins the first 2/3 years and florida wins years 4-8.
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Oct. 7, 2022 at 3:38 p.m.
#49
Go Jets Go
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Quoting: BuFfaLOFaN
I think in the respect of Calgary wanting to win now they win. Longterm like when these contracts expire i think florida wins the deal. So calgary wins the first 2/3 years and florida wins years 4-8.


Fair point, I was more so looking at the now!
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Oct. 7, 2022 at 3:41 p.m.
#50
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Quoting: mondo
Because "prime years" is a very subjective term and varies from player to player. You can't just slap your catch-all statistic on top of their performance and act like the change in the number is a defined range for the term. If you took the chart at face value, you'd come to the conclusion that defenseman drop off after 23, which isn't really a reflection of a defenseman's career path. Weegar played his first NHL game at 23.

Saying "Most players peak between 24-31" isn't a scientific conclusion but instead a reflection to account for all the variables on what "prime years" would actually mean. A great portion of NHL prospects float around in the minors until 22-24. Most NHL athletes enter their peak physical condition in their late 20s. The mid to late 20s is when most quality NHL players are looking to make their "retire at 40" contracts so physiologically they're putting in more effort and commitment during these years. The exact year(s) a player will vary but in the majority of cases, it's going to happen in this age range.

Weegar is definitely going to decline during this contract, the 30s aren't very kind to a lot of defenseman as they start to lose footspeed, the physical toll of the game starts to show it's wear and lingering injury problems which weren't an issue when they were younger start to compound. Paying a defenseman through their 30s is always a risk, but I've believed Weegar is the sort of defenseman who, barring any major injury, would be able to translate his game so that he still has use and viability of his team.

"This same exact thing is said every time a player signs a deal like this." I don't see what's wrong with saying this. I can't go 8 years into the future to exactly predict how his career will turn out. Right now, he looks like the kind of player who can see out his deal in some form. Any of number of things could happen between now and then. You need to remember that this contract isn't one where they're expecting a 37 year old Weegar to help to get to a cup, they want the 28 through 32 year old Weegar to help them get there. The Flames have only so much cap room to allocate and if saving 2 or 3 million on his contract at the cost of an extra 2 or 3 years is what it takes to have a team to get them 16 wins in the playoffs, so be it.


That's literally what you did lol.

You just said they peak 24-31 & defenceman peak later without any data at all.

"If you took the chart at face value, you'd come to the conclusion that defenseman drop off after 23, which isn't really a reflection of a defenseman's career path."

What are you talking about? You'd come to the conclusion that there aren't many defenceman playing at 21-23 and the only guys playing are your top tier talents like Doughty/Karlsson/Makar/Heiskanen etc... There's a dropoff because most of your mid to late round picks debut at 24.

"I don't see what's wrong with saying this" because it's usually not true. The only defenceman that seem to be able to keep it up in their 30s are HOF talent guys. I wouldn't be surprised if Makar could be an exception. Weegar isn't that.

"37 year old Weegar to help to get to a cup, they want the 28 through 32 year old Weegar to help them get there. The Flames have only so much cap room to allocate and if saving 2 or 3 million on his contract at the cost of an extra 2 or 3 years is what it takes to have a team to get them 16 wins in the playoffs, so be it."

Because bloating your cap space with guys out of their prime isn't how you build a good team. That's how you become the Sharks/Preds. Making the playoffs every year but not sniffing the cup.
 
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