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Buffalo Sabres signed Mattias Samuelsson (7 Years / $4,285,714 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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Oct. 12, 2022 at 12:30 p.m.
#51
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Came here just to see the chaos lol
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Oct. 12, 2022 at 12:30 p.m.
#52
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Quoting: jpsnow13
And Klingberg had 40pts, including 11 goals, in his 1st season to show for it!!!

Congrats on signing the same contract for a guy without stats.


Klingberg is horrible defensively. Samuelsson is a defensive defenseman
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Oct. 12, 2022 at 12:34 p.m.
#53
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Quoting: jpsnow13
And Klingberg had 40pts, including 11 goals, in his 1st season to show for it!!!

Congrats on signing the same contract for a guy without stats.


Yea using points to evaluate a defensive d man lmao. Samuelsson isn't a PP QB. At the very least look into the player before commenting.

Man that Pelech stinks making 5.75M with a career high of only 21 points! What were the Islanders thinking!
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Oct. 12, 2022 at 12:49 p.m.
#54
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Quoting: ElectroMan
Yea using points to evaluate a defensive d man lmao. Samuelsson isn't a PP QB. At the very least look into the player before commenting.

Man that Pelech stinks making 5.75M with a career high of only 21 points! What were the Islanders thinking!


Here's the big difference: Pelech had played in almost as many *playoff games* as Samuelsson has regular-season games when he signed his big extension. He had basically 4 seasons worth of games backing up the analytics that said he was a top-tier, shutdown defenseman.

Samuelsson has half a season showing that, with some pretty bad numbers on the PK(not great for a DFD). It's not saying he can't live up to it, just that it's a huge risk - and acting like everyone who's tugging at their collar over giving a guy like that $30M is a "casual" is being a bit defensive.

My own opinion is that this is a bit premature - he's a defensive defenseman. What could he have done this season that would've put this contract out of reach for the Sabres? Everything in his junior/professional career shows that he's probably a 20-25 point guy at his peak who can shut down another team's top line. Guys like that usually don't get paid much more than Pelech's deal, which is only about $1.5M more than what the Sabres gave Samuelsson. I don't think the Sabres would have cost themselves a more expensive contract extension by waiting to see if he could make the leap this season.
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Oct. 12, 2022 at 12:52 p.m.
#55
sen krak fan
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Next Nikita Zaitzev? Except not as bad lol?
Oct. 12, 2022 at 12:56 p.m.
#56
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Quoting: dannibalcorpse
Here's the big difference: Pelech had played in almost as many *playoff games* as Samuelsson has regular-season games when he signed his big extension. He had basically 4 seasons worth of games backing up the analytics that said he was a top-tier, shutdown defenseman.

Samuelsson has half a season showing that, with some pretty bad numbers on the PK(not great for a DFD). It's not saying he can't live up to it, just that it's a huge risk - and acting like everyone who's tugging at their collar over giving a guy like that $30M is a "casual" is being a bit defensive.

My own opinion is that this is a bit premature - he's a defensive defenseman. What could he have done this season that would've put this contract out of reach for the Sabres? Everything in his junior/professional career shows that he's probably a 20-25 point guy at his peak who can shut down another team's top line. Guys like that usually don't get paid much more than Pelech's deal, which is only about $1.5M more than what the Sabres gave Samuelsson. I don't think the Sabres would have cost themselves a more expensive contract extension by waiting to see if he could make the leap this season.


I'm not comparing Pelech to Samuelsson. One was 27 when he got his contract and the other is 22. I'm showing how stupid it is to evaluate a defensive d man by points.

"and acting like everyone who's tugging at their collar over giving a guy like that $30M is a "casual" is being a bit defensive." No, but not knowing anything about the player and giving takes is. If you're looking at point totals for a defensive d man it's very clear the person is clueless when it comes to the player. Just like someone bringing up point totals for Pelech is certainly a casual.

If we gave him a 3 year bridge the cap would be about 95M-100M at the end of that deal. If Samuelsson is still playing on the top pair with good results that would likely be 7M+. This contract could have potentially saved the team 3M per year at that time.
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Oct. 12, 2022 at 12:58 p.m.
#57
You know nothing JS
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Quoting: ElectroMan
Yea using points to evaluate a defensive d man lmao. Samuelsson isn't a PP QB. At the very least look into the player before commenting.

Man that Pelech stinks making 5.75M with a career high of only 21 points! What were the Islanders thinking!


Islanders were thinking they needed to overpay to keep him off free agency after, surprise surprise, a bridge contract of 4x1.6M. (You know, like a good GM would do to manage risks on an unproven player)

Keep your comparables coming, it just shows how ridiculous Samuelson's contract is because he doesn't have statss and/or milleage...
Oct. 12, 2022 at 1:02 p.m.
#58
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Quoting: jpsnow13
Islanders were thinking they needed to overpay to keep him off free agency after, surprise surprise, a bridge contract of 4x1.6M.

Keep your comparables coming, it just shows how ridiculous Samuelson's contract is because he doesn't have statss and/or milleage...


How are you missing the point this bad?

I'm not even comparing Pelech to Samuelsson. I'm showing how dumb it is to evaluate a defensive d man with points, which you were doing. You just commented on a player without knowing anything about them and continue to double down.

An actual comparison would be Oscar Klefbom 7 years 4.1M after 77 games & John Marino 6 years 4.4M after 52 games
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Oct. 12, 2022 at 1:03 p.m.
#59
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Quoting: ElectroMan
I'm not comparing Pelech to Samuelsson. One was 27 when he got his contract and the other is 22. I'm showing how stupid it is to evaluate a defensive d man by points.

"and acting like everyone who's tugging at their collar over giving a guy like that $30M is a "casual" is being a bit defensive." No, but not knowing anything about the player and giving takes is. If you're looking at point totals for a defensive d man it's very clear the person is clueless when it comes to the player. Just like someone bringing up point totals for Pelech is certainly a casual.

If we gave him a 3 year bridge the cap would be about 95M-100M at the end of that deal. If Samuelsson is still playing on the top pair with good results that would likely be 7M+. This contract could have potentially saved the team 3M per year at that time.


Samuelsson being a $7M player in 2026-27 is probably the top 25% of outcomes if we're being generous - not saying that he's a bum, but that I could easily sit here and find 3 guys who flamed out after a good half-season for every defensive Dman you could bring up that wound up being a $7M player by the end of his RFA years.

And to be fair, if you're assuming he bridges at around 3x$2.5M, most of the savings you're talking about in 2026-27 are going to be wiped out by the fact that you're overpaying him by about $2M from 23-24 through 25-26.
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Oct. 12, 2022 at 1:11 p.m.
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Quoting: dannibalcorpse
Samuelsson being a $7M player in 2026-27 is probably the top 25% of outcomes if we're being generous - not saying that he's a bum, but that I could easily sit here and find 3 guys who flamed out after a good half-season for every defensive Dman you could bring up that wound up being a $7M player by the end of his RFA years.

And to be fair, if you're assuming he bridges at around 3x$2.5M, most of the savings you're talking about in 2026-27 are going to be wiped out by the fact that you're overpaying him by about $2M from 23-24 through 25-26.


The cap is going up nearly 20M in that time. Contracts are going to jump like crazy. At that time his deal would be comparable to a 3.5M deal today, which would be pretty close to his bridge amount. Near the end of his deal it would be close to 2.5M for a top 4 defensive d man.

Guys like Cernak already got 5.2M and that's before the cap has even jumped. You will start to see defensive guys getting 6M-7M pretty soon.

He's playing top pair, has strong defensive results, and this contract would put him 71st highest paid d man. Do you think that's an overpay or fair for what he brings currently?
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Oct. 12, 2022 at 1:17 p.m.
#61
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Edited Oct. 12, 2022 at 1:24 p.m.
I certainly like the thought by the Sabres. Extend players long term who they are think are going to the core of the team till 2030. Now we'll see if he lives up to his contract but as suggested above he has a team friendly buyout in three years.
But the signing is what GMs are paid to do. Project the future and players contract worth. As for Samuelson....30m in hand is worth more than" two in the bush"

Actually the signing reminds more of Hamonic with the Isles. He signed a 7 year contract for 3.875m after two years of pro, and two NHL season at age 22...almost 23.
Oct. 12, 2022 at 1:21 p.m.
#62
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Quoting: jpsnow13
And Klingberg had 40pts, including 11 goals, in his 1st season to show for it!!!

Congrats on signing the same contract for a guy without stats.


Oscar Klefbom was given a 7 year 29 million dollar contract back in 2015 after playing 77 games across 2 seasons and having a total of 23 points and he was given far more offensive opportunities than Samuelsson. Is that a better comparison for you? Klefbom was a very solid dman until his career was derailed by injury.
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Oct. 12, 2022 at 1:24 p.m.
#63
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Quoting: ElectroMan
How is his ceiling a 4th d man when he's been playing top pair? His ceiling is Slavin. He's already a top 4 d man.


Heh. Yeah, and how many of those 54 games was he playing top pair?
Oct. 12, 2022 at 1:31 p.m.
#64
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Quoting: mokumboi
Heh. Yeah, and how many of those 54 games was he playing top pair?


20? The rest he was in the top 4. I just don't get how a guy's ceiling is a top 4 d man when he's already a top 4 d man. Doesn't make any sense.
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Oct. 12, 2022 at 1:35 p.m.
#65
You know nothing JS
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Quoting: ElectroMan
How are you missing the point this bad?

I'm not even comparing Pelech to Samuelsson. I'm showing how dumb it is to evaluate a defensive d man with points, which you were doing. You just commented on a player without knowing anything about them and continue to double down.

An actual comparison would be Oscar Klefbom 7 years 4.1M after 77 games & John Marino 6 years 4.4M after 52 games


So your comparisons are a guy on LTIR for half his deal and another who was traded away one year into his deal. So how is it a smart money decision again?!
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Oct. 12, 2022 at 1:39 p.m.
#66
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Quoting: ElectroMan
The cap is going up nearly 20M in that time. Contracts are going to jump like crazy. At that time his deal would be comparable to a 3.5M deal today, which would be pretty close to his bridge amount. Near the end of his deal it would be close to 2.5M for a top 4 defensive d man.

Guys like Cernak already got 5.2M and that's before the cap has even jumped. You will start to see defensive guys getting 6M-7M pretty soon.

He's playing top pair, has strong defensive results, and this contract would put him 71st highest paid d man. Do you think that's an overpay or fair for what he brings currently?


Personally? If he doesn't take a step up, he's overpaid. And his defensive numbers away from the top pair were abysmal - go check out his sub-40% CF/SF and 8-27 GF-GA numbers when he was with Casey Fitzgerald last season if you think I'm just making things up. He put up better numbers with Dahlin, but to me that doesn't scream "top pair guy", it just says he's able to keep up with a superior player while not being able to make a lesser player better. That's fine! There are tons of players like that, and it doesn't mean he's not a top-4 player. I just don't think he's a slam dunk top pair guy that's going to make this deal look like a steal.

If you want a little more to back that up, I think one of his better comps is Jonas Siegenthaler - both defensive LHD, similarly sized players, and Siegenthaler is only 3 years older and signed his extension 10 weeks ago.

Sieganthaler put up better even strength possession numbers (51.2 vs 47.6 CF, 51.0 vs. 47.3 Fenwick) with similar PDOs (so can't say one was bailed out by better goaltending), and was better at preventing goals when he was on the ice shorthanded (7.2 GA/60 vs. 8.1 for Samuelsson), while having a little over 2 seasons worth of NHL games to judge his game on. He just signed for 5x$3.4M - so the Sabres gave more term and more AAV in this deal today.

Again, my point is that it's not that Samuelsson is going to be a bum, or not live up to the deal, or whatever. It's just that it doesn't make a ton of sense to hand out this deal right now when there is very little I could picture Samuelsson doing that would push his value *higher* than this. He's most likely a middle-pair guy going forward and this is a higher-end middle pair AAV.
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Oct. 12, 2022 at 1:40 p.m.
#67
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Huh? Can someone explain this to me?
Oct. 12, 2022 at 1:42 p.m.
#68
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High Risk...Medium Reward.
Oct. 12, 2022 at 1:45 p.m.
#69
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Quoting: jpsnow13
So your comparisons are a guy on LTIR for half his deal and another who was traded away one year into his deal. So how is it a smart money decision again?!


Yes, because a player having serious issues with chronic arthritis is predictable in the future lmao. Klefbom's contract was great when he was playing.

Marino's contract is fair value. Getting 4.4M for a top 4 defensive d man is fair.

The cap is also going to skyrocket in the next few years. A 4.2M contract will look like a 3.5M contract the 3rd year of his deal. Paying 3.5M for a top 4 dman is great value. A huge steal if he becomes elite defensively.

You continue to embarrass yourself.
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Oct. 12, 2022 at 1:45 p.m.
#70
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Quoting: Brian2016
High Risk...Medium Reward.


is 700k on your cap over 10 years a high risk to pay for someone whos ceiling is a Slavin type player? no. I don't get it.
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Oct. 12, 2022 at 1:52 p.m.
#71
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Quoting: dannibalcorpse
Personally? If he doesn't take a step up, he's overpaid. And his defensive numbers away from the top pair were abysmal - go check out his sub-40% CF/SF and 8-27 GF-GA numbers when he was with Casey Fitzgerald last season if you think I'm just making things up. He put up better numbers with Dahlin, but to me that doesn't scream "top pair guy", it just says he's able to keep up with a superior player while not being able to make a lesser player better. That's fine! There are tons of players like that, and it doesn't mean he's not a top-4 player. I just don't think he's a slam dunk top pair guy that's going to make this deal look like a steal.

If you want a little more to back that up, I think one of his better comps is Jonas Siegenthaler - both defensive LHD, similarly sized players, and Siegenthaler is only 3 years older and signed his extension 10 weeks ago.

Sieganthaler put up better even strength possession numbers (51.2 vs 47.6 CF, 51.0 vs. 47.3 Fenwick) with similar PDOs (so can't say one was bailed out by better goaltending), and was better at preventing goals when he was on the ice shorthanded (7.2 GA/60 vs. 8.1 for Samuelsson), while having a little over 2 seasons worth of NHL games to judge his game on. He just signed for 5x$3.4M - so the Sabres gave more term and more AAV in this deal today.

Again, my point is that it's not that Samuelsson is going to be a bum, or not live up to the deal, or whatever. It's just that it doesn't make a ton of sense to hand out this deal right now when there is very little I could picture Samuelsson doing that would push his value *higher* than this. He's most likely a middle-pair guy going forward and this is a higher-end middle pair AAV.


Raw numbers are not a good way of evaluating a player's defensive game on a bad team. ROR's numbers were bad in Buffalo, despite playing well defensively. You have to look at his isolated impact. He had great numbers.

LxzAAgA.png

The team is much better defensively when he's on the ice.

"If you want a little more to back that up, I think one of his better comps is Jonas Siegenthaler - both defensive LHD, similarly sized players, and Siegenthaler is only 3 years older and signed his extension 10 weeks ago. " Yea that's another good example. I think Samuelsson has a bit more offensive upside though.

I think the contract will either be fair value or a steal. A top 4 d man making 4.2M is right around what they should be getting.
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Oct. 12, 2022 at 2:08 p.m.
#72
Hakuna Matata
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Do you have a goal

No

Great here's 7 years at slightly over 4mill

Guess hockey really is changing
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Oct. 12, 2022 at 2:08 p.m.
#73
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Might be one of the funniest threads ever. So many people who don't know anything about the player, but acting like they do. Using points for a defensive d man tears of joy tears of joy . It's always the same posters too acting like they know it all.
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Oct. 12, 2022 at 2:11 p.m.
#74
You know nothing JS
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Quoting: ElectroMan
Yes, because a player having serious issues with chronic arthritis is predictable in the future lmao. Klefbom's contract was great when he was playing.

Marino's contract is fair value. Getting 4.4M for a top 4 defensive d man is fair.

The cap is also going to skyrocket in the next few years. A 4.2M contract will look like a 3.5M contract the 3rd year of his deal. Paying 3.5M for a top 4 dman is great value. A huge steal if he becomes elite defensively.

You continue to embarrass yourself.


Not my fault if you can't find a comparable that turned out good. LOL

Also I'm embarassed for you when your best arguments are 1) money loses value over time, and 2) the player might get better.

You could say that about any rookie, ever.

Yet, teams usually try to get the longest track record as possible before commiting long term. It's called risk mangement, look it up.
Oct. 12, 2022 at 2:12 p.m.
#75
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Quoting: ElectroMan
I think the contract will either be fair value or a steal. A top 4 d man making 4.2M is right around what they should be getting.


At the end of the day, I'm probably a little less bullish than you are, but still in the ballpark. He's probably overpaid for the next 2-3 years and under-market for the last 4-5 years of the deal - not a bad tradeoff, and it's especially nice to see Buffalo being a team taking the big swing like this.

I think my only issue with the deal is the timing - the Sabres were under no time crunch where they *needed* to get this deal done and I think if they offered this deal to Samuelsson at the end of this season instead of now, he'd still have taken it. And then you're making the offer based on (assuming good health) 120ish games instead of just 50 or so to date. Maybe it's too much time with Lou Lamoriello as my GM, but I'm definitely in the "if you have time, use it" school of thought these days.
 
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