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Betting Discussion Thread #1 - A New Hope

Oct. 31, 2022 at 8:33 a.m.
#176
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Quoting: yikes
Toronto vs Anaheim

Anaheim win, under 6.5 goals total = +400??
Easy money.


This in fact was not easy money. However, the NFL made $50 yesterday.
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Oct. 31, 2022 at 9:15 a.m.
#177
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EklundCelebriniSmith
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Quoting: Sklikly
This in fact was not easy money. However, the NFL made $50 yesterday.


I was over by 1 goal that was close af (plus Ana still won) - but yeah I always hop in on the Bills
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Nov. 2, 2022 at 5:40 p.m.
#178
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McDavid for Rocket is +300 still (Matthews has higher odds lmao) - that’s a line worth taking..

Karlsson and Dahlin for Norris I may hop on as well.

For tonight I’m on Philly > Leafs, Sabres > Pens
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Nov. 4, 2022 at 3:54 p.m.
#179
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Rantanen goal + Laine goal (+400) was free money lol
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Nov. 5, 2022 at 4:30 p.m.
#180
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Karlsson anytime is +250; so you already know where im going.

Karlsson anytime, Ducks win +2000
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Nov. 5, 2022 at 6:25 p.m.
#181
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Giroux first goal +900 or anytime goal +165… latter seems like a lock since it’ll be goal #300 against Philly lol
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Nov. 8, 2022 at 2:54 p.m.
#182
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For Kuzmenko, Kessel, Barzal, and Fiala all to score tonight, it’s +22106 lol, $222.06 payout on a $1 bet
Nov. 8, 2022 at 3:01 p.m.
#183
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not really following this thread as I dont bet but im wondering :

are you guys able to do money (even with the cuts by the platforms) simply by following advanced stats models?
Nov. 8, 2022 at 3:14 p.m.
#184
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Quoting: pinslack
not really following this thread as I dont bet but im wondering :

are you guys able to do money (even with the cuts by the platforms) simply by following advanced stats models?

Do you mean betting based on the odds of a model like Dom’s or moneypuck’s?
Nov. 8, 2022 at 3:27 p.m.
#185
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Quoting: Alfie11
Do you mean betting based on the odds of a model like Dom’s or moneypuck’s?


yeah
Nov. 8, 2022 at 5:07 p.m.
#186
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Quoting: pinslack
yeah

Yeah, you can do that, although Dom doesn’t post betting advice anymore. It’s not a guaranteed money maker though. Vegas odds typically slightly beat most public models (of the most common 9 public models, it’s typically been 1-3 per year that come out ahead of Vegas iirc). The odds always favour the house after all lol
Nov. 12, 2022 at 12:59 p.m.
#187
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Barzal anytime goal scorer +215. Hasn’t scored a goal yet this season, -4.5 goals above expected. He’s due

Isles are playing CBJ
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Nov. 12, 2022 at 1:07 p.m.
#188
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Quoting: Db1899
Barzal anytime goal scorer +215. Hasn’t scored a goal yet this season, -4.5 goals above expected. He’s due

Isles are playing CBJ

I’ve got Giroux goal + VAN ML + VGK -1.5 for +1328 lol

That Barzal bet looks good too. McDavid (+125) and Draisaitl (+115) are also + money for some reason. Giroux straight up is +155
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Nov. 12, 2022 at 10:09 p.m.
#189
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F*ck Mat Barzal
Nov. 13, 2022 at 2:27 a.m.
#190
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Quoting: Db1899
F*ck Mat Barzal

I went 0/7 on bets today LOL
Nov. 14, 2022 at 1:13 a.m.
#191
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Anybody noticed any trends so far this year? Feel free to share the love lol

I've noticed one big one, and it's that the Dallas Stars top line is MONEY. A 3-leg parlay consisting of Jason Robertson point + Roope Hintz point + Joe Pavelski point typically gives odds around +190 to +200, meaning you need it to hit slightly more than once every three games to be profitable. It's hit 9 times in 15 games so far this year, and I'm personally 3/3 on betting it. If you're not as big of a fan of Pavelski and prefer to just bet the kids, a 2-leg parlay consisting of Jason Robertson point + Roope Hintz point typically pays out around +115 I think (I've never actually bet this personally, but I vaguely remember seeing this number show up temporarily when building the 3-leg parlay lol, and I think it makes sense, because Pavelski isn't + money to get a point individually), meaning you need this to only hit slightly less than once every two games to be profitable. It's hit 12 times in 15 games lol.

Also, the opposing team to win by 3 or more has hit 3/5 times when Felix Sandstrom is in net (he has one win, and one loss by a single goal). The Flyers hot start is entirely because of Carter Hart lol. I don't think Sandstrom is a great goalie, but it's probably still too early to tell if this is a trend or not. If you don't want to go -2.5 for the opponent, then at least it might give you a little more confidence in betting on the opposing PL (also 3/5) or opposing ML (4/5).

Opposing team O3.5 goals has hit in:
9/11 starts for Gibson (only one needing an empty netter, but those count too)
5/7 starts for Merzlikins (and he gave up 3 goals in each of the other 2 games lol)
4/6 starts for Nedeljkovic
6/10 starts for Campbell
1/1 starts for Murray (lol)
7/10 starts for Demko
1/1 starts for Daccord (lol)
3/3 starts for Greiss (one needing an empty netter)

Game total O6.5 has hit in:
8/10 starts for Campbell
5/6 starts for Petersen
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Nov. 14, 2022 at 9:03 a.m.
#192
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EklundCelebriniSmith
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Quoting: Alfie11
Anybody noticed any trends so far this year? Feel free to share the love lol

I've noticed one big one, and it's that the Dallas Stars top line is MONEY. A 3-leg parlay consisting of Jason Robertson point + Roope Hintz point + Joe Pavelski point typically gives odds around +190 to +200, meaning you need it to hit slightly more than once every three games to be profitable. It's hit 9 times in 15 games so far this year, and I'm personally 3/3 on betting it. If you're not as big of a fan of Pavelski and prefer to just bet the kids, a 2-leg parlay consisting of Jason Robertson point + Roope Hintz point typically pays out around +115 I think (I've never actually bet this personally, but I vaguely remember seeing this number show up temporarily when building the 3-leg parlay lol, and I think it makes sense, because Pavelski isn't + money to get a point individually), meaning you need this to only hit slightly less than once every two games to be profitable. It's hit 12 times in 15 games lol.

Also, the opposing team to win by 3 or more has hit 3/5 times when Felix Sandstrom is in net (he has one win, and one loss by a single goal). The Flyers hot start is entirely because of Carter Hart lol. I don't think Sandstrom is a great goalie, but it's probably still too early to tell if this is a trend or not. If you don't want to go -2.5 for the opponent, then at least it might give you a little more confidence in betting on the opposing PL (also 3/5) or opposing ML (4/5).

Opposing team O3.5 goals has hit in:
9/11 starts for Gibson (only one needing an empty netter, but those count too)
5/7 starts for Merzlikins (and he gave up 3 goals in each of the other 2 games lol)
4/6 starts for Nedeljkovic
6/10 starts for Campbell
1/1 starts for Murray (lol)
7/10 starts for Demko
1/1 starts for Daccord (lol)
3/3 starts for Greiss (one needing an empty netter)

Game total O6.5 has hit in:
8/10 starts for Campbell
5/6 starts for Petersen


Alot of effort put into this so nice work. I’ll add a few dimes to extend the list;

Karlssons point over is usually 0.5 or which has been pretty free; usually just parlay that with who you feel safe on in the same game (maybe it’s the over or the money line). Compared to other plays like McDavid or Kaprizov their overs are 1.5 which is far harder to hit. Last night didn’t know who would win in the Sharks game so just went in Karlsson 0.5 points and Kaprizov over 0.5 assists.

Also StatMuse is a pretty awesome site. To continue - Kaprizov historically versus the Sharks (per StatMuse) had put up 8 points in 11 games; which isn’t outstanding but it’s fair. So why did I bet Kaprizov? On StatMuse, game by game, Kaprizov has trended where; EVERYGAME Kaprizov has been pointless against the Sharks, his next game against the Sharks he records ATLEAST one point. So last game before Sunday against SJS he had 0 points. And Sunday? He got a point. The trend continues.


Others just like Alfie said with JRob, Pavs, Hintz - Boston has been pretty safe and too add with the “Perfection” line. I tend to bet on the goat Bergeron first, followed by Pasta, and Marchand finally.
Bergeron just simply tends to have less aggressive lines than Pasta. Often overs 1.5points or sometimes 4.5 on shots I’ve seen for Pasta. Kaprizov and Meier tend to get similarly aggressive lines. Meier tends to over 4.5 shots a lot 12/17 games this year (some games he’s hit 9 or 8 shots). Kaprizov has 5 games for comparison over 4.5 shots which isn’t great and Pasta has 11/16 which IS great.

It’s harder to bet on MIN/ KK97 due to Minnys slow start and the Sharks are just bad but Karlsson has been historic - his goals have started to slow down but his lines are fair. Meier isn’t as red hot but still producing and shooting. And Boston has just been shot out of a cannon I regret not betting on them more.

McDavid anytime goal has been decent to bet on as well with how much he’s going for the net now.
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Nov. 14, 2022 at 2:38 p.m.
#193
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EklundCelebriniSmith
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Sens should be BUZZING tonight, Alfie retirement.
Over 6 plus they’re underdogs???? Now make a huge parlay off their backs.

Sens ML
Over 6 OTT/NYI
PHI Eagles (NFL)
BOS Celtics (NBA)
Avs ML
Over 6 COL/STL
+1416

Really good bet imo.
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Nov. 14, 2022 at 2:49 p.m.
#194
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What app/website do you use? My app does not let me create parlays like this, only on teams winning.

I did hit a 9 team NFL parlay yesterday $5 bet returned $376, not a bad day.
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Nov. 14, 2022 at 3:05 p.m.
#195
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EklundCelebriniSmith
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Quoting: Sklikly
What app/website do you use? My app does not let me create parlays like this, only on teams winning.

I did hit a 9 team NFL parlay yesterday $5 bet returned $376, not a bad day.

That’s sick!

I had Colts and Packers (and I was gonna do Vikings) they made me back what I lost on NHL.

Bet365 let’s you do multi sport parlays. Like I had some huge NFL, NHL, NBA, UFC parlays but McDavid (surprisingly) and Chandler (lost to the DAWG Porier) killed them.
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Nov. 14, 2022 at 3:19 p.m.
#196
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Quoting: yikes
That’s sick!

I had Colts and Packers (and I was gonna do Vikings) they made me back what I lost on NHL.

Bet365 let’s you do multi sport parlays. Like I had some huge NFL, NHL, NBA, UFC parlays but McDavid (surprisingly) and Chandler (lost to the DAWG Porier) killed them.


Thanks! I had the did the unthinkable and had the Lions and Vikings both winning tears of joy
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Nov. 16, 2022 at 5:19 p.m.
#197
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The Brady Tkachuk points line has moved to 1.5, but the Stars top liners are still at 0.5 and I successfully hit that again yesterday lol
Nov. 19, 2022 at 2:56 p.m.
#198
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Jack Hughes has had 6 and 7 shots on goal the previous 2 games, put a lot of money on Hughes o3.5 shots and he has 0 through 2 periods. F*ck that guy
Nov. 19, 2022 at 3:57 p.m.
#199
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Quoting: Db1899
Jack Hughes has had 6 and 7 shots on goal the previous 2 games, put a lot of money on Hughes o3.5 shots and he has 0 through 2 periods. F*ck that guy

make it back with mtkachuk over in sog. sprinkling huby/mtkachuk to score as well
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Nov. 19, 2022 at 4:20 p.m.
#200
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Bet365 is giving out money/bet credits for correctly guessing scores during the world cup. Here are my predictions for the first few games, thoughts?

qatar 1-1 ecuador
england 3-0 iran
senegal 0-2 netherlands
usa 1-2 wales
 
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