Quoting: Alfie11
Anybody noticed any trends so far this year? Feel free to share the love lol
I've noticed one big one, and it's that the Dallas Stars top line is MONEY. A 3-leg parlay consisting of Jason Robertson point + Roope Hintz point + Joe Pavelski point typically gives odds around +190 to +200, meaning you need it to hit slightly more than once every three games to be profitable. It's hit 9 times in 15 games so far this year, and I'm personally 3/3 on betting it. If you're not as big of a fan of Pavelski and prefer to just bet the kids, a 2-leg parlay consisting of Jason Robertson point + Roope Hintz point typically pays out around +115 I think (I've never actually bet this personally, but I vaguely remember seeing this number show up temporarily when building the 3-leg parlay lol, and I think it makes sense, because Pavelski isn't + money to get a point individually), meaning you need this to only hit slightly less than once every two games to be profitable. It's hit 12 times in 15 games lol.
Also, the opposing team to win by 3 or more has hit 3/5 times when Felix Sandstrom is in net (he has one win, and one loss by a single goal). The Flyers hot start is entirely because of Carter Hart lol. I don't think Sandstrom is a great goalie, but it's probably still too early to tell if this is a trend or not. If you don't want to go -2.5 for the opponent, then at least it might give you a little more confidence in betting on the opposing PL (also 3/5) or opposing ML (4/5).
Opposing team O3.5 goals has hit in:
9/11 starts for Gibson (only one needing an empty netter, but those count too)
5/7 starts for Merzlikins (and he gave up 3 goals in each of the other 2 games lol)
4/6 starts for Nedeljkovic
6/10 starts for Campbell
1/1 starts for Murray (lol)
7/10 starts for Demko
1/1 starts for Daccord (lol)
3/3 starts for Greiss (one needing an empty netter)
Game total O6.5 has hit in:
8/10 starts for Campbell
5/6 starts for Petersen
Alot of effort put into this so nice work. I’ll add a few dimes to extend the list;
Karlssons point over is usually 0.5 or which has been pretty free; usually just parlay that with who you feel safe on in the same game (maybe it’s the over or the money line). Compared to other plays like McDavid or Kaprizov their overs are 1.5 which is far harder to hit. Last night didn’t know who would win in the Sharks game so just went in Karlsson 0.5 points and Kaprizov over 0.5 assists.
Also
StatMuse is a pretty awesome site. To continue - Kaprizov historically versus the Sharks (per StatMuse) had put up 8 points in 11 games; which isn’t outstanding but it’s fair. So why did I bet Kaprizov? On StatMuse, game by game, Kaprizov has trended where; EVERYGAME Kaprizov has been pointless against the Sharks, his next game against the Sharks he records ATLEAST one point. So last game before Sunday against SJS he had 0 points. And Sunday? He got a point. The trend continues.
Others just like Alfie said with JRob, Pavs, Hintz - Boston has been pretty safe and too add with the “Perfection” line. I tend to bet on the goat Bergeron first, followed by Pasta, and Marchand finally.
Bergeron just simply tends to have less aggressive lines than Pasta. Often overs 1.5points or sometimes 4.5 on shots I’ve seen for Pasta. Kaprizov and Meier tend to get similarly aggressive lines. Meier tends to over 4.5 shots a lot 12/17 games this year (some games he’s hit 9 or 8 shots). Kaprizov has 5 games for comparison over 4.5 shots which isn’t great and Pasta has 11/16 which IS great.
It’s harder to bet on MIN/ KK97 due to Minnys slow start and the Sharks are just bad but Karlsson has been historic - his goals have started to slow down but his lines are fair. Meier isn’t as red hot but still producing and shooting. And Boston has just been shot out of a cannon I regret not betting on them more.
McDavid anytime goal has been decent to bet on as well with how much he’s going for the net now.