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Thinking out loud here

Created by: McRanteskog
Team: 2022-23 Colorado Avalanche
Initial Creation Date: Oct. 20, 2022
Published: Oct. 20, 2022
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
I think this trade makes sense for both sides with all things considered. Yes, there are some M-NMC in play here but I wouldn’t classify either market as a “why would you ever want to play there” market.

Trade breaks down as follows:
Holl for the COL 2023 5th rd pick
Kerfoot for E. Johnson with 2mil in retained salary
(3rd party team takes the 2024 4th rd pick to retain 2mil on E Johnson’s deal).

Leaf fans should take note of EJs size, shot blocking and hit statistics (he’s heavier, hits more, and blocks more shots compared to Holl). He brings other intangibles too which Holl doesn’t provide.

TOR gains 1.5mil in cap space, frees up a contract slot, gains a late 2023 pick and improves at D (EJ over Holl) at the cost of Kerfoot.

COL on the flip side takes on the less desirable defender in Holl and loses two late draft picks but gains Kerfoot (who would be an upgrade over Newhook or Compher right now - also very versatile in the lineup) and frees up 500k in cap space.

TOR could run:
Reilly-Brodie
Sandin-E Johnson
Giordano- Liljegren(healthy soon)
Trades
COL
  1. Holl, Justin
  2. Kerfoot, Alexander
Additional Details:
ARI takes the 2024 4th rd pick to retain 2million on Johnson’s contract
TOR
  1. Johnson, Erik
  2. 2023 5th round pick (COL)
  3. 2024 4th round pick (COL)
Additional Details:
ARI takes the 2024 4th rd pick to retain 2million on Johnson’s contract
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2023
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
2024
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
2025
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$82,500,000$81,078,333$25,000$3,987,500$1,421,667
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$4,500,000$4,500,000
LW, RW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$6,300,000$6,300,000
C
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$9,250,000$9,250,000
RW, C
UFA - 3
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$908,333$908,333 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
C, LW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$3,500,000$3,500,000
LW, C, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$6,125,000$6,125,000
RW, LW
NMC
UFA - 8
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$1,250,000$1,250,000
LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$3,500,000$3,500,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$2,000,000$2,000,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$1,050,000$1,050,000
RW, LW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$912,500$912,500 (Performance Bonus$212,500$212K)
LW, C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$425,000$425K)
RW
RFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$4,100,000$4,100,000
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$9,000,000$9,000,000
RD
UFA - 5
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$3,400,000$3,400,000
G
UFA - 3
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD/RD
UFA - 5
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$4,500,000$4,500,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$2,000,000$2,000,000
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$2,500,000$2M)
LD/RD
RFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,000,000$2,000,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$762,500$762,500
LD/RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$7,000,000$7,000,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 7
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$987,500$987,500
LD/RD, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$1,250,000$1,250,000
C, LW, RW
UFA - 1

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Oct. 20, 2022 at 1:14 p.m.
#1
Let Him Cook
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why would we give kerfoot up for a more expensive dmen who does the same thing, this hurts our depth and we dont get paid for it, makes 0 sense for toronto
Oct. 20, 2022 at 1:15 p.m.
#2
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now this is very interesting! fixes big needs for both teams but not sure either team actually agrees.
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Oct. 20, 2022 at 1:16 p.m.
#3
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Quoting: jake4leafs
why would we give kerfoot up for a more expensive dmen who does the same thing


EJ at 4mill is an upgrade over Holl (a player most Leaf fans have been petitioning to blast into the sun for two years) + late pick in exchange for Kerfoot
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Oct. 20, 2022 at 1:25 p.m.
#4
Let Him Cook
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Quoting: McRanteskog
EJ at 4mill is an upgrade over Holl (a player most Leaf fans have been petitioning to blast into the sun for two years) + late pick in exchange for Kerfoot


hes been playing an avg of 15 mins per night this year and hes 4 years older. that being said he seems better on paper, but he wont play top dmen mins and he will cost 4m? plus we lose kerfoot?. its not worth it for the leafs. we need a top shutdown dmen.
Oct. 20, 2022 at 1:26 p.m.
#5
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It's a fair trade but the Leafs don't gain 1.5m cap space as suggested. 3.5m Kerfoot and 2m Holl costs 5.5m. A retained EJ costs 4.5m, and Kerfoot's replacement costs 800,000. So the Leafs gain just 200,000
Oct. 20, 2022 at 1:30 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: jake4leafs
hes been playing an avg of 15 mins per night this year and hes 4 years older. that being said he seems better on paper, but he wont play top dmen mins and he will cost 4m? plus we lose kerfoot?. its not worth it for the leafs. we need a top shutdown dmen.


I don’t think it’s fair to analyze EJs lack of minutes considering he plays in a D core with the likes of Toews, Makar, Girard, Manson and Byram. He’s a sure middle pairing D man on 90% of the rest of the league.

Leafs upgrade Holl, gain a late pick and free up 1.5mil cap space at the cost of Kerfoot. I’m a fan of both teams, I feel I’m being pretty unbiased here. TOR is too cap strapped to have Kerfoot on the 3rd line making 3.5mil.
Oct. 20, 2022 at 1:31 p.m.
#7
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Quoting: McRanteskog
I don’t think it’s fair to analyze EJs lack of minutes considering he plays in a D core with the likes of Toews, Makar, Girard, Manson and Byram. He’s a sure middle pairing D man on 90% of the rest of the league.

Leafs upgrade Holl, gain a late pick and free up 1.5mil cap space at the cost of Kerfoot. I’m a fan of both teams, I feel I’m being pretty unbiased here. TOR is too cap strapped to have Kerfoot on the 3rd line making 3.5mil.


we can move engvall for a 3rd if we need cap space. dubas has already showed he likes kerfoot and will make everything possible to keep him
Oct. 20, 2022 at 1:32 p.m.
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Quoting: palhal
It's a fair trade but the Leafs don't gain 1.5m cap space as suggested. 3.5m Kerfoot and 2m Holl costs 5.5m. A retained EJ costs 4.5m, and Kerfoot's replacement costs 800,000. So the Leafs gain just 200,000


EJ makes 6mill not 6.5mil. If ARI is paid a late pick to pickup 2 mil, EJs cap hit to TOR is 4mil
Oct. 20, 2022 at 1:34 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: McRanteskog
EJ makes 6mill not 6.5mil. If ARI is paid a late pick to pickup 2 mil, EJs cap hit to TOR is 4mil


Thanks for the correction. OK 4m and 800,000 replacement is 4.8m or a 700,000 Leaf gain in cap.
Oct. 20, 2022 at 1:34 p.m.
#10
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im not a big fan of this bc of Kerfoot, we have done that dance with him already. He was constantly in Bednars doghouse getting benched late in games. I dont see that changing much. The consistency level was never there and that hasnt changed in the way Bednar coaches, if he cant get a base line consistency level from a guy, he doesnt play them.
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Oct. 20, 2022 at 1:35 p.m.
#11
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ARZ wouldnt take on 2 mill in salary for a 4th. I would rather go after an actual top 4 D man. he does eat pucks and lay the body its just to much to give up for a slight improvement. Also as of the start of the season Holl beast him in hits and blocks he wont keep it up but he also isnt that far behind. i dont think 4 million dollar difference is worth the few extra blocks and hits.

EJ - 136 blocks - 165 hits last season over 77 games

Holl - 104 blocks - 129 hits over 69 games

over 82 games

EJ - 144 blockes - 175 hits

Holl - 123 blocks - 153 hits
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Oct. 20, 2022 at 1:36 p.m.
#12
Future GM
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Good addressing both teams needs and it makes sense. The only thing I don't like is Leafs parting with Kerfoot. Very good contract and he plays a huge roll for them. I do think Erik Johnson would make the leafs a whole lot better though.
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Oct. 20, 2022 at 1:39 p.m.
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Quoting: jake4leafs
we can move engvall for a 3rd if we need cap space. dubas has already showed he likes kerfoot and will make everything possible to keep him


Engvall doesn’t net you a 3rd. 2.25mil is rich for what he provides and last years production is an outlier. At best he’s a below average 3rd liner but an above average 4th liner. (Who’s on a one way deal with poor playoff numbers).
Oct. 20, 2022 at 1:43 p.m.
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Quoting: coga16
im not a big fan of this bc of Kerfoot, we have done that dance with him already. He was constantly in Bednars doghouse getting benched late in games. I dont see that changing much. The consistency level was never there and that hasnt changed in the way Bednar coaches, if he cant get a base line consistency level from a guy, he doesnt play them.


We’ve seen Bednar healthy scratch Newhook last playoffs and already juggled him to the 3rd line after 3 games.

As for Compher, I don’t think he is able to elevate his offensive numbers when played higher up in the lineup (with better talent) like Kerfoot does.

I won’t comment on Bednars doghouse because as it currently stands, it seems the player who are in the dog house seem to change on a nightly basis.
Oct. 20, 2022 at 1:46 p.m.
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Quoting: palhal
Thanks for the correction. OK 4m and 800,000 replacement is 4.8m or a 700,000 Leaf gain in cap.


That’s twisting it a little bit. The way you write it implies they lose the 800k then only have 700k to play with when in fact they could move a pick or prospect for a single player of 1.5m value (or upgrade an Engvall 2.25m level player for one closer to 4mil)
Oct. 20, 2022 at 1:50 p.m.
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Quoting: python3504
ARZ wouldnt take on 2 mill in salary for a 4th. I would rather go after an actual top 4 D man. he does eat pucks and lay the body its just to much to give up for a slight improvement. Also as of the start of the season Holl beast him in hits and blocks he wont keep it up but he also isnt that far behind. i dont think 4 million dollar difference is worth the few extra blocks and hits.

EJ - 136 blocks - 165 hits last season over 77 games

Holl - 104 blocks - 129 hits over 69 games

over 82 games

EJ - 144 blockes - 175 hits

Holl - 123 blocks - 153 hits


You can’t use this seasons minutes/hits/blocks etc as EJ is currently forced into a lesser role because COL is too deep on D.

Its also incorrect to take the rates and stretch them over 82 games. The fact EJ was available for 8 more games than Holl is also some upside. EJs also won a cup, has had playoff success, brings veteran/leadership.. all intangibles Holl doesn’t bring.
Oct. 20, 2022 at 1:53 p.m.
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Quoting: McRanteskog
We’ve seen Bednar healthy scratch Newhook last playoffs and already juggled him to the 3rd line after 3 games.

As for Compher, I don’t think he is able to elevate his offensive numbers when played higher up in the lineup (with better talent) like Kerfoot does.

I won’t comment on Bednars doghouse because as it currently stands, it seems the player who are in the dog house seem to change on a nightly basis.


but that is why he healthy scratched Newhook, the consistency of what he can get out of them every night is not there. Kerfoot had the same issue, when coaches dont know the players floors game in and game out they cant trust them.

That is why Bednar loves compher, at the minimum every night he knows he is going to get X out of compher, and he likes that and is comfortable with that.

Its not all about offensive production when it comes to consistency, its the level of play.
Oct. 20, 2022 at 2:00 p.m.
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Quoting: coga16
but that is why he healthy scratched Newhook, the consistency of what he can get out of them every night is not there. Kerfoot had the same issue, when coaches dont know the players floors game in and game out they cant trust them.

That is why Bednar loves compher, at the minimum every night he knows he is going to get X out of compher, and he likes that and is comfortable with that.

Its not all about offensive production when it comes to consistency, its the level of play.


I’ll agree to disagree with you here.

Compher may be more consistent night to night, but over an entire seasons body of work, I feel Kerfoot would outshine Compher more nights than not.

I feel as though Compher between Nichushkin and Newhook, brings down the line. Whereas Kerfoot between those two wouldn’t hamper them as much (as Kerfoot has the ability to play with more talented line mates).

And when we are talking the second line, offensive production is a part of it. If offence isn’t a focus on the second line, COL immediately becomes a one line offensive team (as the decreased depth on lines 3 and 4 means less scoring from those other lines). The second line needs to produce offense.
Oct. 20, 2022 at 2:03 p.m.
#19
torontos finest
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Don't hate this.

Might as well get the Coyotes to retain 50% since that will free up an extra million in space.
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Oct. 20, 2022 at 2:05 p.m.
#20
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Quoting: McRanteskog
I’ll agree to disagree with you here.

Compher may be more consistent night to night, but over an entire seasons body of work, I feel Kerfoot would outshine Compher more nights than not.

I feel as though Compher between Nichushkin and Newhook, brings down the line. Whereas Kerfoot between those two wouldn’t hamper them as much (as Kerfoot has the ability to play with more talented line mates).

And when we are talking the second line, offensive production is a part of it. If offence isn’t a focus on the second line, COL immediately becomes a one line offensive team (as the decreased depth on lines 3 and 4 means less scoring from those other lines). The second line needs to produce offense.


Kerfoot is not a centre either, that’s the thing, his production comes from the wing, he played more c in Colorado than in Toronto and we both know he barely played C here,
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Oct. 20, 2022 at 2:06 p.m.
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Quoting: mondo
Don't hate this.

Might as well get the Coyotes to retain 50% since that will free up an extra million in space.


I considered it but COL is lacking a 3rd round pick until 2025 unless ARI doesn’t care
Oct. 20, 2022 at 2:12 p.m.
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Quoting: coga16
Kerfoot is not a centre either, that’s the thing, his production comes from the wing, he played more c in Colorado than in Toronto and we both know he barely played C here,


Ok, I’ll concede that point, most of his production did come for the wing in TO.

I’m just spit balling teams needs and wants and this is what I came up with. COL won’t make a deep run with Newhook at 2C nor do I care to empty the prospect pool any more for a 2C rental at the TDL (one who COL couldn’t afford to resign at seasons end). This deal makes COL stronger at a position of need (2C) by trading from a position of surplus (D). All without moving high end picks or prospects, while being stuck against the cap ceiling. Fills a need for both teams which isn’t the case with a lot of the AGMs posted around here lately.
Oct. 20, 2022 at 2:12 p.m.
#23
Let Him Cook
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Quoting: McRanteskog
Engvall doesn’t net you a 3rd. 2.25mil is rich for what he provides and last years production is an outlier. At best he’s a below average 3rd liner but an above average 4th liner. (Who’s on a one way deal with poor playoff numbers).


luke kunin was moved for a 3rd and a 4th, engvall nets us a 3rd for sure
Oct. 20, 2022 at 2:15 p.m.
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Quoting: McRanteskog
Ok, I’ll concede that point, most of his production did come for the wing in TO.

I’m just spit balling teams needs and wants and this is what I came up with. COL won’t make a deep run with Newhook at 2C nor do I care to empty the prospect pool any more for a 2C rental at the TDL (one who COL couldn’t afford to resign at seasons end). This deal makes COL stronger at a position of need (2C) by trading from a position of surplus (D). All without moving high end picks or prospects, while being stuck against the cap ceiling. Fills a need for both teams which isn’t the case with a lot of the AGMs posted around here lately.


There is a spit balling idea of moving ej, but I don’t see it with kerfoot

Avs have needs and could use this to spread the cap around so it’s a good idea
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Oct. 20, 2022 at 2:17 p.m.
#25
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Quoting: McRanteskog
I considered it but COL is lacking a 3rd round pick until 2025 unless ARI doesn’t care


Toronto would likely be responsible for paying the retention because it's benefiting them. Might be the 2024 4th and 7th or parting with a C prospect.
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