Jensen will cost at least a 1st, and will only be available if the Caps really struggle. The Leafs will likely have to well overpay DC even if the Caps are out of a playoff spot, as Jensen fits well here, is liked by management and teammates, and won't command too much for his next deal which should allow the Caps to use him as a bridge/mentor for Iorio and possibly Chesley, so I don't think Washington will want to move him regardless of situation.

Zub is probably non-negotiable, same with Murphy since he's a leader on the team and just began a 4-year extension. Provorov and Larsson start with a first, in Provorov's case it'll be a 1st+
Not sure about Jensen

Ottawa would trade Zub, but it'll cost a pretty penny considering his low-price tag. Since he's a 1st pairing support D, I would anticipate a return of Sandin with a 1st and 3rd

Jensen is a 3rd pair defenceman. How is that worth a first?

Zub isn't first pair on most teams. Being the #2 guy to Chabot on a very thin Blue line doesn't make the guy the #2 everywhere. A fine player but let's just settle it down a bit.

It's not necessarily his value overall, but his value to Ottawa that would raise the cost.

because he's not a third pair defenseman...

He's a very strong second pairing defenseman who excels under both the eye test and advanced stats, who is on an incredibly reasonable deal. He works well up and down the lineup, can step into a 1RD role in a pinch (though he fits more as a second pairing guy). and He and Orlov have matched up well against top lines on other teams. Given his cap hit and ability, he's easily worth at least a 1st rounder, and would likely cost teams more since the Caps wouldn't likely be interested in dealing him without an overpay.

Edit:

Yeah this is why these types of analytics aren't completely trustworthy. Jensen is not in anyway an elite defencemen. There are always these weird outliers, some 3rd liner or bottom 4 defenceman who have incredible stats according to Jfresh and then elite top end players are middling. It makes it hard to trust the numbers. Something else is leading to this mirage success.

Don't see the Leafs needing a LHD. Leafs shouldn't be at any Dman with expensive term either. Muzzin could be this year or certainly next year.

Or maybe he's a good defenseman? There's more there than just his JFresh number, and Jensen has had these quality numbers for years. In fact, here's a thread of some of his numbers when he was dealt to DC, and he's only gotten better since.

He and Orlov were also near the top of Moneypuck defensive pairings for a decent bit last year, and only started to fall in the rankings when they were forced to split the line due to injuries, and his GAR is ranked 4th in that Japer's Rink graph without any PP time. If you watch him actually play, you'll see he's incredibly strong in his defensive end, something consistent over much of his time in DC (the only outlier being the first 15 or so games of his time in Washington). If you don't think he's good enough, fine, the Caps will keep him, but if the Leafs want him, it'll cost them at least a 1st, and he's certainly not a 3rd pairing guy.

you are right Jenson is a solid Dman. That is why the leafs would want him. I cant see washington trading him since they are going for it.

Lol even if you just look at boxcar stats both his point production (with no powerplay time) and TOI suggest that he is very much a #3 defenseman. I'm all for needing context for advanced stats and supplementing them with actually watching the games, but both of those things very much support Jensen as a top 3 D that would return a first.

Jensen is now a number 3 defenceman? Geez give it 2 weeks and he'll be a Norris contender

He is the 3rd best defenseman on the Caps behind Carlson and Orlov and would be the 3rd best defenseman on the Leafs behind Reilly and Brodie. Not unreasonable at all ...

Washington isn't really good defensively and hasn't been since Trotz left.

and your proof that this means Jensen is bad is...

And I should remind you that a team's overall performance is not an automatically indicative of every player in that system. (Ex. Chicago's offensive output last year was poor, with the 4th least goals scored in the NHL. However, this wouldn't indicate that Alex Debrincat and his 40 goals was automatically not a good offensive output simply because Chicago as a team is bad.)

How are all these middling defenceman on teams that aren't very good defensively somehow all amazing defenceman?

In no way did I claim that, I’m talking specifically Jensen. You’ve managed to not show a lick of evidence other than “because I said so” this whole thread, and I’d think that if you were right in saying Jensen is middling and a 3rd pairing guy, it wouldn’t be too hard to back up. If you can prove that the Caps, in your mind, not being as good defensively since Trotz fully discredits the idea that Jensen is a solid 3D, then I eagerly await that. Otherwise, I’d advise you to stop talking out your ***. It makes you look like a fool.

Solid 3rd pair defenceman? Have absolutely. I was under the impression you are calling him at true #3 on any team and that's ridiculous

Sens want to extend Zub, they won't trade him unless he wants nothing to do with playing in Ottawa


Jake Sanderson and Erik Brannstrom will start changing this narrative pretty soon. Then maybe JBD later in the season.

Although it's hard to know when with DJ Smith, he makes very weird decisions

Yeah you would do well to get a better coach

I like him but would rather have him as an assistant coach or if he'd have a guy like Jacques Martin as his assistant (for defense)

No no, he's a #3 on almost any team, especially Toronto (see the reasons and evidence above). Again, if you want to actually show proof that disputes this, I'm all ears. But just saying "he's not that good" isn't proof.

I am a big believer in getting newer guys. Guys ahead of the curve.

He's not a #3 enjoy the season