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2022-23 NHL Season Discussion Thread #4: Just Keefe Drowning

Nov. 11, 2022 at 2:24 p.m.
#901
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Quoting: Tintin
Demko's GSAx/60 is seventh worst for goalies with at least 4 games played fwiw.
Seems like he's part of the problem in Vancouver just as much as the defense in front of him.


Quoting: aadoyle
The surgery also has not seemed to have helped Demko's play either

Like man if he continues to struggle this season not many teams are gonna go here's 2 A level prospects and a 1st

Meanwhile Jones is just having fun in SEA and might make Dreidger expendable


Quoting: NHLfan10506
I love Demko at reasonable price (which should be less than Hughes+Nemec)



I’m not saying Demko is worth Nemec / Hughes (neither should be traded if you’re a smart GM). It would be like asking the Sharks to trade Eklund or Bordeleau, Boston to trade Lysell, or Arizona to trade Guenther.

Just not in the cards of a good gm.

But Holtz seems expendable. Or someone else etc. But Demko has been a mule the last years in Vancouver and the teams pretty rough.

If I believe correctly, the Canucks have allowed nearly 33% of their total goals against on the pk (which they’re 32nd ranked in PK). And like watching that Miller goal against the other day. I mean I’d hardly say Demko is in the Top5 problems in Vancouver.

And I believe Demko 5on5 stats are pretty fair. I believe his statline is above .900 if you’re not including the PK.
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Nov. 11, 2022 at 2:28 p.m.
#902
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
So the best two defensive prospects on the planet...for a guy with -10 GSAA?


GSAA is a useless stat. If you meant GSAx, then ok. Stats early in the year can look weird. You do realize that all it takes to get back to positive GSAx, it realistically only takes 3-5 very good games.
Nov. 11, 2022 at 2:31 p.m.
#903
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Quoting: yikes
I’m not saying Demko is worth Nemec / Hughes (neither should be traded if you’re a smart GM).

But Holtz seems expendable. Or someone else etc. But Demko has been a mule the last years in Vancouver and the teams pretty rough.

If I believe correctly, the Canucks have allowed nearly 33% of their total goals against on the pk (which they’re 32nd ranked in PK). And like watching that Miller goal against the other day. I mean I’d hardly say Demko is in the Top5 problems in Vancouver.

And I believe Demko 5on5 stats are pretty fair. I believe his statline is above .900 if you’re not including the PK.


Fair points, Demko's GSAx/60 is -0.09 at 5v5 which is not terrible (but certainly not good either).
Holtz is the most moveable high value asset for my part. Not sure he's cut out for such a rush-based offence Ruff is going with.
Starting to doubt that Holtz will be able to become the best version of himself in New Jersey so I'd like to move him before his value diminshes.
Nov. 11, 2022 at 2:32 p.m.
#904
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Quoting: yikes
I’m not saying Demko is worth Nemec / Hughes (neither should be traded if you’re a smart GM). It would be like asking the Sharks to trade Eklund or Bordeleau, Boston to trade Lysell, or Arizona to trade Guenther.

Just not in the cards of a good gm.

But Holtz seems expendable. Or someone else etc. But Demko has been a mule the last years in Vancouver and the teams pretty rough.

If I believe correctly, the Canucks have allowed nearly 33% of their total goals against on the pk (which they’re 32nd ranked in PK). And like watching that Miller goal against the other day. I mean I’d hardly say Demko is in the Top5 problems in Vancouver.

And I believe Demko 5on5 stats are pretty fair. I believe his statline is above .900 if you’re not including the PK.


Our entire team just sucks at PK. Demko has a 0.907 save percentage at 5v5 and a sub 3 GAA. Not his best numbers but he can definitely bounce back.
Nov. 11, 2022 at 2:46 p.m.
#905
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Quoting: Juiceman
GSAA is a useless stat. If you meant GSAx, then ok. Stats early in the year can look weird. You do realize that all it takes to get back to positive GSAx, it realistically only takes 3-5 very good games.


It is moot, as I have little problem with Demko's slow start.
He is a top-10 goalie, if not top-5.

My issue was with the asking price.
Nov. 11, 2022 at 2:56 p.m.
#906
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Quoting: Devil
L Hughes, Nemec ++ for Demko? Yeah Ill pass

Obviously not LHughes AND Nemec. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Vancouver insisted on Nemec+ for Demko, and it would probably be worth it 🤷‍♂️
Nov. 11, 2022 at 3:25 p.m.
#907
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Quoting: Tintin
Fair points, Demko's GSAx/60 is -0.09 at 5v5 which is not terrible (but certainly not good either).
Holtz is the most moveable high value asset for my part. Not sure he's cut out for such a rush-based offence Ruff is going with.
Starting to doubt that Holtz will be able to become the best version of himself in New Jersey so I'd like to move him before his value diminshes.


Wasn’t Holtz good off the rush in Sweden?
Nov. 11, 2022 at 3:30 p.m.
#908
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Quoting: yikes
I’m not saying Demko is worth Nemec / Hughes (neither should be traded if you’re a smart GM). It would be like asking the Sharks to trade Eklund or Bordeleau, Boston to trade Lysell, or Arizona to trade Guenther.

Just not in the cards of a good gm.

But Holtz seems expendable. Or someone else etc. But Demko has been a mule the last years in Vancouver and the teams pretty rough.



The Devils duo is not the same as Eklund, Bordeleau, Lysell or Guenther.
Hughes and Nemec are both franchise-changing prospects.
And along with Logan Cooley, are among top-3 outside the NHL.

It would be more like Buffalo trading Dahlin and Power right after 2021 draft.
Or Colorado moving Makar and Byram a couple of years ago.


Wheeler, The Athletic top prospects
2. Luke Hughes (Rank among non-NHLers: #1)
4. Simon Nemec (#2)
17. Alexander Holtz

21. Dylan Guenther
24. William Eklund
58. Fabian Lysell
(Bordeleau unranked)


Pronman, The Athletic top u23 players (includes NHLers)
11. Luke Hughes (#1)
26. Simon Nemec (#3)
56. Alexander Holtz

25. Dylan Guenther
50. William Eklund
106. Thomas Bordeleau
170. Fabian Lysell


McKeen's top prospects
2. Luke Hughes (#1)
10. Simon Nemec (#3)
15. Alexander Holtz
63. Arseni Gritsyuk

24. Dylan Guenther
26. William Eklund
38. Thomas Bordeleau
49. Fabian Lysell


Chris Peters Daily Faceoff top-75
6. Luke Hughes (#2)
14. Simon Nemec (#4)

13. William Eklund
22. Dylan Guenther
31. Fabian Lysell
42. Thomas Bordeleau
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Nov. 11, 2022 at 3:35 p.m.
#909
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Quoting: Alfie11
Obviously not LHughes AND Nemec. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Vancouver insisted on Nemec+ for Demko, and it would probably be worth it 🤷‍♂️


I am sure they would ask for Hughes or Nemec (and they would know the answer before they asked)

It would probably be 3-4 pieces including a goalie or goalie prospect, a defensive prospect (excluding aforementioned) and picks.
Nov. 11, 2022 at 3:51 p.m.
#910
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Quoting: Db1899
Wasn’t Holtz good off the rush in Sweden?


Honestly don't know / remember.
I've just never been all that impressed with his transition play whenever I've watched him, be it the SHL, WJC, AHL or NHL.
EIther that or I'm unfairly projecting my disappointment in the Devils not picking Rossi over Holtz back to him idk.
Nov. 11, 2022 at 4:23 p.m.
#911
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Quoting: Tintin
Honestly don't know / remember.
I've just never been all that impressed with his transition play whenever I've watched him, be it the SHL, WJC, AHL or NHL.
EIther that or I'm unfairly projecting my disappointment in the Devils not picking Rossi over Holtz back to him idk.


Fair enough. He’ll either be a Mike Hoffman (mediocre 5v5, elite on the PP) or he’ll reach his ceiling as a Guentzel type of player. Too early to tell.

Rossi has struggled this season, it’s hard to come into the league at 19-21 YO and have a strong impact right away
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Nov. 11, 2022 at 4:47 p.m.
#912
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Quoting: Devil
"Full Tank Mode"
Anaheim
Columbus
Montreal
San Jose
St. Louis

"Tank-Optional" (aka, delayed tank)
Arizona
Chicago
Minnesota
Nashville
Ottawa
Philadelphia
Vancouver

"All growns up now"
Buffalo
Detroit
Los Angeles
Seattle

"Too old to tank, maybe too late to untank"
Calgary
NY Islanders
Pittsburgh
Washington

"Full Compete Mode"
Boston
Carolina
Colorado
Dallas
Edmonton
NY Rangers
Tampa Bay
Toronto
Vegas
Winnipeg

"No Pick, even if they did tank"
Florida

"Wagon"
New Jersey

I mean clearly Montreal isn't in full tank mode. They resigned Allen (32 YO), Acquired Dach, Acquired Monahan, Acquired Dadonov.
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Nov. 11, 2022 at 4:49 p.m.
#913
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Quoting: KSIxSKULLS
I mean clearly Montreal isn't in full tank mode. They resigned Allen (32 YO), Acquired Dach, Acquired Monahan, Acquired Dadonov.


allen and dach are understandable
monahan was acquired with a first, thats just taking on a dump
dadonov was added for weber, also not really anything dictating whether its tank mode or not
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Nov. 11, 2022 at 4:57 p.m.
#914
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
The Devils duo is not the same as Eklund, Bordeleau, Lysell or Guenther.
Hughes and Nemec are both franchise-changing prospects.
And along with Logan Cooley, are among top-3 outside the NHL.

It would be more like Buffalo trading Dahlin and Power right after 2021 draft.
Or Colorado moving Makar and Byram a couple of years ago.


Wheeler, The Athletic top prospects
2. Luke Hughes (Rank among non-NHLers: #1)
4. Simon Nemec (#2)
17. Alexander Holtz

21. Dylan Guenther
24. William Eklund
58. Fabian Lysell
(Bordeleau unranked)


Pronman, The Athletic top u23 players (includes NHLers)
11. Luke Hughes (#1)
26. Simon Nemec (#3)
56. Alexander Holtz

25. Dylan Guenther
50. William Eklund
106. Thomas Bordeleau
170. Fabian Lysell


McKeen's top prospects
2. Luke Hughes (#1)
10. Simon Nemec (#3)
15. Alexander Holtz
63. Arseni Gritsyuk

24. Dylan Guenther
26. William Eklund
38. Thomas Bordeleau
49. Fabian Lysell


Chris Peters Daily Faceoff top-75
6. Luke Hughes (#2)
14. Simon Nemec (#4)

13. William Eklund
22. Dylan Guenther
31. Fabian Lysell
42. Thomas Bordeleau


No one is equivalenting (making up a new word) the players talents - the situation is similar for the team’s absurdity to move the players.

Bostons pool is thinner than air; trading Lysell is idiotic.
San Jose is a dumpster fire; trading Ek/B is idiotic.
Arizona is rebuilding; trading Guenther is idiotic.

Now New Jersey is looking to compete. Which is new so; maybe some eyes would see it logical for New Jersey to move a talented prospect for a elite or whatever upgrade player.

But when you’re in the situation of New Jersey; who is looking hot. And you have people asking them to use arguably the leagues two best prospects, period. It would be idiotic. Your clearly missing the point - I’m not disagreeing with you or degrading either player. I simply said NJD would be idiotic to trade them; which is why I said Holtz. I didn’t say Eklund, Lysell, or Guenther are equals to Hughes or Nemec; they’re just peers in the conversation. It wasn’t a literal use of names; it was a quick comment.
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Nov. 11, 2022 at 5:00 p.m.
#915
WentWughes
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Quoting: zk97
allen and dach are understandable
monahan was acquired with a first, thats just taking on a dump
dadonov was added for weber, also not really anything dictating whether its tank mode or not


It's acquiring veteran players who will help us win games, not lose them. Not like they were pure salary dumps
Nov. 11, 2022 at 5:00 p.m.
#916
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Quoting: KSIxSKULLS
It's acquiring veteran players who will help us win games, not lose them. Not like they were pure salary dumps


monahan was totally a pure salary dump
dadonov not as much
Nov. 11, 2022 at 5:39 p.m.
#917
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
I am sure they would ask for Hughes or Nemec (and they would know the answer before they asked)

It would probably be 3-4 pieces including a goalie or goalie prospect, a defensive prospect (excluding aforementioned) and picks.

Idk why you think you can exclude LHughes and Nemec and get away with it. This is a top 10, arguably top 5 goalie in the league, in his prime (only 26), signed for 3 years after this one at 5mil (below good starter level, already a steal and will only look better as the cap rises). Like Holtz+2023 1st wouldn’t cut it imo. Nemec+Holtz would probably be enough and frankly, the Devils could justify that. You already have Hamilton and Marino on the right side, and presumably L. Hughes and Siegenthaler on the left for your long term top 4, plus enough depth to fill out the bottom pair even if Graves and Severson walk (or bring in UFA replacements, 3rd pair guys aren’t hard to find). I wouldn’t trade L. Hughes obviously, but the Devils D is strong enough that they could trade Nemec+Holtz for Demko and be a stronger team for it.
Nov. 11, 2022 at 5:46 p.m.
#918
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Quoting: yikes
No one is equivalenting (making up a new word) the players talents - the situation is similar for the team’s absurdity to move the players.

Bostons pool is thinner than air; trading Lysell is idiotic.
San Jose is a dumpster fire; trading Ek/B is idiotic.
Arizona is rebuilding; trading Guenther is idiotic.

Now New Jersey is looking to compete. Which is new so; maybe some eyes would see it logical for New Jersey to move a talented prospect for a elite or whatever upgrade player.

But when you’re in the situation of New Jersey; who is looking hot. And you have people asking them to use arguably the leagues two best prospects, period. It would be idiotic. Your clearly missing the point - I’m not disagreeing with you or degrading either player. I simply said NJD would be idiotic to trade them; which is why I said Holtz. I didn’t say Eklund, Lysell, or Guenther are equals to Hughes or Nemec; they’re just peers in the conversation. It wasn’t a literal use of names; it was a quick comment.


I gotcha. Its all relative. Like, "never spend half your money at once"

Lysell alone is probably not enough to rebuild around...and while Boston is competing, it could make more sense to move him.
Guenther, Eklund, Bordeleau are all top prospects in good pools, on weaker clubs. Keep 'em where they are.

Holtz, Gritsyuk, Foote, Mukhamadullin, Casey, Thompson, Walsh are all fine prospects. All those guys are moveable.
Hughes, Nemec are different story.
Nov. 11, 2022 at 6:29 p.m.
#919
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
How many teams are heading for full-tank mode? Between the handful of obvious rebuilding clubs and a group of veteran teams under-performing, it seems like it could be a crowded tank this year. Could be upwards of 10 teams in full sell-offs at deadline.

If I had to categorize them...maybe something like...

"Full Tank Mode"
Anaheim
Columbus
Montreal
San Jose
St. Louis

"Tank-Optional" (aka, delayed tank)
Arizona
Chicago
Minnesota
Nashville
Ottawa
Philadelphia
Vancouver

"All growns up now"
Buffalo
Detroit
Los Angeles
New Jersey
Seattle

"Too old to tank, maybe too late to untank"
Calgary
NY Islanders
Pittsburgh
Washington

"Full Compete Mode"
Boston
Carolina
Colorado
Dallas
Edmonton
NY Rangers
Tampa Bay
Toronto
Vegas
Winnipeg

"No Pick, even if they did tank"
Florida


If one of the teams in All grown up now win the lottery they will be the best team in the league in 3 years. Just gonna throw that out there. Also would add Ottawa to that tier. also St.Louis should see if Colorado will pay a crazy amount to get Ryan O'Reilly
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Nov. 11, 2022 at 6:38 p.m.
#920
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Quoting: Alfie11
Idk why you think you can exclude LHughes and Nemec and get away with it. This is a top 10, arguably top 5 goalie in the league, in his prime (only 26), signed for 3 years after this one at 5mil (below good starter level, already a steal and will only look better as the cap rises). Like Holtz+2023 1st wouldn’t cut it imo. Nemec+Holtz would probably be enough and frankly, the Devils could justify that. You already have Hamilton and Marino on the right side, and presumably L. Hughes and Siegenthaler on the left for your long term top 4, plus enough depth to fill out the bottom pair even if Graves and Severson walk (or bring in UFA replacements, 3rd pair guys aren’t hard to find). I wouldn’t trade L. Hughes obviously, but the Devils D is strong enough that they could trade Nemec+Holtz for Demko and be a stronger team for it.


Rarely are goalies returning that kind of value, fair or not, history just tells us otherwise. Some examples of big goalie trades below...(I set my query on netminders +/-5 years older/younger than Demko)

1987: Clint Malarchuk, age 26 for 1st (1987 #15 - Joe Sakic), two veteran forwards (Duchesne, Haworth)
1989: Ken Wregget - age 25, for two 1sts (1989 #12, 1989 #21)
1993: Grant Fuhr, age 31, for 1st (1993 #12), Andreychuk, Puppa
1995: Curtis Joseph, age 28, for two 1sts (1996 #14, 1997 #15)
1997: Jim Carrey, age 23, for package including Adam Oates
2000: Kevin Weekes, age 25 for 1st (2000 #4), 4th, 7th
2003: Miikka Kiprusoff, age 27 for 2nd
2006: Andrew Raycroft, age 26, for top-10 prospect (Rask)
2007: Vesa Toskala, age 30 for 1st (2007 #13), 2nd, 4th
2007: Tomas Vokoun, age 31 for 1st (2008 #9), 2nd, 2nd
2010: Jaroslav Halak, age 25 for top-10 prospect (Eller), prospect (Schultz)
2010: Kari Lehtonen for top-50 prospect (Ivan Vishnevskiy)
2011: Semyon Varlamov, age 23, for 1st (2012 #11), 2nd
2013: Cory Schneider, age 27 for 1st (2013 #9)
2015: Robin Lehner, age 24 for 1st (2015 #21, with Legwand)
2015: Martin Jones, age 26, for 1st (2016 #29), Kuraly
2016: Freddy Andersen, age 27 for 1st (2016 #30), 2nd
2021: Darcy Kuemper, age 31 for 1st (2022 #32), 3rd, top-75 prospect (Timmins)

There just aren't many comps that equal two top-10 picks. In most cases, the selling team had two good goalies and was trading from excess. Many had contracts due. Most were during the summer. And many were for most picks in return.
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Nov. 11, 2022 at 6:41 p.m.
#921
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
Rarely are goalies returning that kind of value, fair or not, history just tells us otherwise. Some examples of big goalie trades below...(I set my query on netminders +/-5 years older/younger than Demko)

1987: Clint Malarchuk, age 26 for 1st (1987 #15 - Joe Sakic), two veteran forwards (Duchesne, Haworth)
1989: Ken Wregget - age 25, for two 1sts (1989 #12, 1989 #21)
1993: Grant Fuhr, age 31, for 1st (1993 #12), Andreychuk, Puppa
1995: Curtis Joseph, age 28, for two 1sts (1996 #14, 1997 #15)
1997: Jim Carrey, age 23, for package including Adam Oates
2000: Kevin Weekes, age 25 for 1st (2000 #4), 4th, 7th
2003: Miikka Kiprusoff, age 27 for 2nd
2006: Andrew Raycroft, age 26, for top-10 prospect (Rask)
2007: Vesa Toskala, age 30 for 1st (2007 #13), 2nd, 4th
2007: Tomas Vokoun, age 31 for 1st (2008 #9), 2nd, 2nd
2010: Jaroslav Halak, age 25 for top-10 prospect (Eller), prospect (Schultz)
2010: Kari Lehtonen for top-50 prospect (Ivan Vishnevskiy)
2011: Semyon Varlamov, age 23, for 1st (2012 #11), 2nd
2013: Cory Schneider, age 27 for 1st (2013 #9)
2015: Robin Lehner, age 24 for 1st (2015 #21, with Legwand)
2015: Martin Jones, age 26, for 1st (2016 #29), Kuraly
2016: Freddy Andersen, age 27 for 1st (2016 #30), 2nd
2021: Darcy Kuemper, age 31 for 1st (2022 #32), 3rd, top-75 prospect (Timmins)

There just aren't many comps that equal two top-10 picks. In most cases, the selling team had two good goalies and was trading from excess. Many had contracts due. Most were during the summer. And many were for most picks in return.


The key part is the last paragraph. Most cases involved the team having another good goalie already making one expendable. No matter how much I say Martin is the goat, the team would crumble without Demko. He is much less expendable which would make it more difficult for a team to try and pry him from the Canucks
Nov. 11, 2022 at 6:50 p.m.
#922
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Quoting: Juiceman
The key part is the last paragraph. Most cases involved the team having another good goalie already making one expendable. No matter how much I say Martin is the goat, the team would crumble without Demko. He is much less expendable which would make it more difficult for a team to try and pry him from the Canucks


Conditions certainly do not match ripe goal-trade scenario. Young goalie, with term, on team without clear #2.

Unless Vancouver blows it up, its highly unlikely.
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Nov. 11, 2022 at 6:57 p.m.
#923
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
Conditions certainly do not match ripe goal-trade scenario. Young goalie, with term, on team without clear #2.

Unless Vancouver blows it up, its highly unlikely.


Rutherford also has made it very clear that Demko is the only thing keeping our team relevant. It will be a really cold day in Vancouver if Demko is traded
Nov. 11, 2022 at 7:04 p.m.
#924
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top 5 Hart Candidates so far IMO

1, Mcdavid
2. Eichel
3. Hart
4. E. Karlsson
5. M. Tkachuk
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Nov. 11, 2022 at 7:11 p.m.
#925
What in tarnation
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Quoting: Db1899
top 5 Hart Candidates so far IMO

1, Mcdavid
2. Eichel
3. Hart
4. E. Karlsson
5. M. Tkachuk


I'd give HM to Ullmark. He's been great.
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