RANGERS
-The Rangers acquire Debrincat with the intention of using him as a rental.
-Because he has 1 RFA year left after this season, they can flip his RFA rights at the draft for a 1st round pick and a few other pieces. They will not be able to afford his 8-10 million dollar extension, but his RFA status will allow them to rent him for a playoff run before flipping him to subsidize the cost of acquiring both him and Kane.
-The Rangers had Tyler Boucher in the top 15 of their 2021 draft. Their current regime values size and grit. We will assume that like the Senators, they value Boucher like a 1st round pick, even if that isn’t in line with how the rest of the league might see him.
-The Blackhawks will retain half of Patrick Kane’s cap hit and trade him to Ottawa. Ottawa will retain half of Kane’s remaining cap hit and send him to New York. This will put New York within a few thousand dollars of the cap ceiling. If they send a player down, they can become compliant.
-Reaves is sent to Ottawa to balance out the cap. Alternatively, Chytil could go to Ottawa or Chicago.
-If we assume the Rangers get a 1st/2nd/3rd for Debrincat at the draft, they basically traded Lafreniere+Kakko for Kane (Rental)+Debrincat (Rental)+Boucher+2nd+3rd. Maybe they extend Kane in the summer if he wants to take a discount, and they can work out the cap gymnastics. That is not a guarantee though.

Senators
-We will assume that Ottawa was unable to come to terms with Debrincat.
-We will also assume Ottawa is in the bottom 5-10 teams at the trade deadline.
-That gives Ottawa incentive to move on from Debrincat and recoup the 7th+39th+3rd in value that he cost last off season.
-Ottawa’s 2nd round pick is going to be in the top 40, so it will be a high pick.

Blackhawks
-Chicago gets a playoff 1st, a high 2nd, and Kakko in exchange for Patrick Kane as a rental.
-Kakko has failed to grow into a star, and is likely going to be a solid middle 6 forward for many years to come. He is not worth anywhere near his original draft position from four years ago.
-Giroux is a good comparable floor for what Kane should go for as a rental. Kane is the better player, but GIroux is the last big time forward to be traded at the deadline.
-Giroux went for Tippett, a 1st, and a 3rd. Kakko, a 1st, and a very high 2nd is a much better package than that.

OTT declines they can get a lot more for Cat than a cap dump and a 3rd liner, Laf is a 3rd liner his value is a 2nd at most

So the cost to acquire Lafreniere would basically be :

- 7th OA pick
- 10th OA pick
- 39th OA pick
- 2nd round pick
- 3rd round pick

That is a lot for a guy who hasn't proved his draft status was legit

That is like saying the cost of acquiring Zack Sanford was the 11th overall pick.

Debrincat will be worth less than they paid if the Senators trade him at either of the next trade deadlines, or in the 2023 off season. They paid for 2 years of team control, not 1. In addition, so far he isn't scoring like he was in Chicago. He will still be seen as a star, but I think his value will be lower with that dynamic. Unless a deal with an extension is made, he's probably worth a mid to late 1st, and one or two B or C level pieces.

The Senators probably value Boucher like a 1st round talent, but not like a top 10 talent. The 2021 draft was a strange draft value wise, because scouting was fragmented and players did not play their standard schedules. We're assuming the Rangers also value Boucher highly, even if the rest of the league might not.

You have to keep in mind that Lafreniere was one of the most hyped 1st overall picks of the last decade. He wasn't McDavid or Matthews, but he was probably near the top of that next tier. Even if he doesn't breakout scoring wise this season, still averaged close to 20 goals his first two seasons. He's got a style of play that would fit right in with what the Senators have built. It would also be a marketing homerun given the makeup of Ottawa, and the downtown arena being so accessible to major French population centers like Orleans and Gatineau. He's the biggest name Francophone player to come to the league in a long time.

Debrincat 1 year rental return (1st ++), Boucher, and a 2nd for Lafreniere. That is not an overpayment based on Lafreniere's stature and play so far. The only reason they would get him at that price would be due to him not living up to his draft billing. It's certainly not cheap and might be an ill advised move. But I cannot see the Rangers moving him for anything other than a great return. He's not Nolan Patrick bad. He's already basically a 2nd line winger at the age of 21, and that's seen as a disappointment.

It wouldn't be the first time I see Boucher botch up assets value, curious to see how he handles DeBrincat. Decision has to be made in advance and you have to find the right suitor, someone he will extend with. If he makes it clear through his agent that he's going to taste the UFA market after a 1 year contract, then yes, he'd have way less value

They can't trade Boucher now for less than top-15 value (no one would ever pay that), 15 months after picking him up 10th OA... now they have to live with that gamble

But I believe in Lafreniere. Even if this is not realistic right now, I would be ready to trade DeBrincat + Boucher for him. So minus tking Reaves and giving up a 2nd

Reaves is there for cap reasons. Unless the Rangers have a major player on LTIR from the TDL until the playoffs, they need to shed cap to make this trade work.