I know Leafs fans dont wanna hear this, but it seems very unlikely that Matthews returns once his deal ends. He signed that term for a reason and unless Toronto can make a legit run (like ECF or SCF), he will have no reason to stay besides that 8th year. Toronto media is about as brutal as it gets and with how bright Arizona is looking, he will have tons of options for teams with cap space looking to contend. Just my opinion, we still have a while to wait and see tho

Hopefully but not impossible. The next year would be interesting as JT is going to see his halved at least I bet. Even if Marner goes to 12 million it'll be manageable through JT's money coming off the books. I will say though, I doubt Dubas will ever deviate from looking for cheap depth guys. Why would he? He keeps finding great value in those contacts. Maybe if you find the right situation you spend 3-4 million for a guy but the difference between a lot of guys making 2+ million are so easily replaceable by a league minimum deal that really fits a role on the team.

So drop guys like Brown, someone will pay him more and you can find what he brings for a better value. Like Kampf is such a value contract but if he wanted 4 million let's say, why not just give the job to Holmberg and find other value elsewhere. It works and will always work so long as the top players, elite stars make big bucks. Like every year will have a new Spezza like story. A vet still with some gas in the tank signs for league minimum, when he could have got more elsewhere. So long as they keep contending anyways.

This is just a silly take. Not everyone is JT.

We have seen it time and time again stars return to their draft teams

Only 2 in recent history have left (Tavares and Gaudreau) and for Gaudreau he probs wishes he stayed as look at the CBJ record vs Calgary's

Meanwhile Malkin, Ovie, Barkov, etc stayed with their teams despite the recent issues.

Matthews knows Toronto will give him the most money and nobody has a Marner. Matthews gives 0 ****s about the media as u can see it in his interviews rarely shows emotion and doesnt get swayed. Hes perfect for this cirty. Arizona has no future. Like who do they got rn thats gonna make him go I want to go there. The answer nobody. Their goaltending, Dcore, everything is worse than what he has rn. And who knows Arizona might not even have a team by the time hes a UFA.

The best part of this is just how off base it is. Both him and Dubas said they discussed going longer but it would have been higher, 8 years was rumored to be 13 million. Matthews said he absolutely loves it in TO and this preseason said he sees Toronto as his home. He's really became himself and loves being who he is in TO. Most pundits say he's going to be a leaf for life. But hey, 90% of people on here want him to leave so badly that they only hear that no matter what being said by Matthews himself.

And Matthews this fall said he see Toronto as his home.

I never read to much into that as thats just a media grab like k get off my back. Which highlights the point above. He knows how to interact with the media here compared to other guys like Kessel. But as mentioned players rarely leave their draft teams especially the stars

I got a feeling 14.34 mill x 8 years will happen in the summer of 2023.

Tkachuk said that too about Calgary and Gaudreau probably felt the same. So did Tavares apparently.

Matthews probably doesn't even know what he will do doubt he's even thinking about his next contract and won't until next off-season. He definitely wants to be here now but if he leaves in the future it doesn't mean that he was lying.

Dubas is going to do whatever it takes to sign the 4 again, but he might not be around. I do think the Leafs have a higher probability of losing Matthews and Nylander (perhaps he gets traded) if they have a new GM.

Here's why he signed that:
1) yes, he wanted to keep his options open. Success is probably a factor, but its also largely about how happy he is here and etc. He does love playing here, living here, and he is very close with this locker room. They grew up together here in TOR, and there is something to be said for that. He's said multiple times about how they have the pieces and that its on them to win together as a core. Has also mentioned Washington if I remember correctly in terms of being patient and trusting the process together. Hopefully we win a round or two at least this year and help in that department.

2) largely to maximize the money he makes. He signed 5 years so that when the cap goes up, if he decides he wants to milk it for everything he can get, he has that option. Maybe now that he sees how the cap situation has affected their success it changes his mindset, and maybe he signs another short term deal at way bigger money than I have here to maximize earnings again, I don't know. But it has been consistently reported that this was a massive factor for the term.

Biased of course but I'd give it a 70% chance he stays, 30% chance he goes.

side note if he leaves I would be dead shocked if its Arizona. Poverty franchise playing in a college hockey rink vs biggest hockey market in the world that sells out every night isn't really a contest no matter where you're from. Maybe NYR or LA if they can swing the cap for it, outside of that though I can't see him going anywhere.

yes but with the cap going up Brown's 3.6M isn't as big as it seems when we think about the cap adjustment

That money will go to a short term 3C probably (Kerfoot replacement) if Bunting isn't resigned. Kampf will stay on line 4 most likely. Minten is probably going to be eased into the NHL so that he can eventually be ready to be the 2C or 3C. A guy like Joey Anderson probably slots as Engvall's replacement on line 3 and PK. Or if a better cheaper option becomes available.

Brown will try to get 4-5m+.

his injury could put that kind of a contract in jeopardy, otherwise I would agree

I think it'll be 13+ for sure but yeah. He'll sign next summer.

He'll be 30+ bottom 6er it's highly likely better or cheaper options will be around

I think 14.34 as he wants a % similar to McDavid so take 86.5 and multiply it by 0.1667 and u get 14.4mill (so mines a tad less than that) but still I feel thats what hes gonna ask for

In general from looking at this skip on brown and Wood's probs making 4-5mill on his next deal with the way hes playing

Instead I would the previous year

Give one of Domi or Eller's 3.5mill x 2 years or Frederick Gaudreau 3mill x 4 years, Sheary 1.85mill x 2 years, Jensen 3.25mill x 4 years, Motte 1.775mill x 2 years, and Gagner 2 years 950k

Then u can just sign a depth Dman and have Clifford and one of Steeves or Holmberg as the extra