Jets fans won't agree but that probably gets it done after this season is over. Nobody else is going to pay more unless they get him with an extension. Montreal only pays that much because they're pretty sure they're his first choice to sign with.

Value wise you're offering a 3rd (Dvorak'sv value), a C prospect and a first which won't get Dubois for a full year.

Chiarot got a 1st, a 4th and a C prospect as a rental at the TDL. Why would Winnipeg accept less for Dubois for a full year when Dubois is far more valuable than Chiarot?

I thought you said Chairot wasn't worth that lol. I am just kidding but your evaluation of Dvo is way way off. Dvo isn't on the same level as Pageau or Monahan but he still returns a 1st and maybe a 4th (if he is traded). Farrell is a B+ prospect, he may not be a big guy by any standards but he is still a very good prospect to have. Farrell put up 53 points in 44 games in the USHL in his draft year, 101 in 53 USHL games in his D+1 year, he followed it up with 8 points in 6 WJAC-19 games, in his Freshman year in the NCAA with 28 points in 24 games. He also had 6 points in 10 WJC games and 6 points in 4 OG games. So far this year he has 13 points in 9 games. So since his draft year he has been over a ppg player almost everywhere he has played against varying levels of compilation from peers to men at the college level to former NHL and pros from other leagues players at the Olympics. I don't think that the package above is as bad as you feel like it is. The real issue with it is it's not the peices you want for PLD, if your trading a player like PLD you don't want a middle 6 center and some good but not great prospects or picks, you want 1 really really solid peice and other good peices. The real problem with that though is your not going to get it when other teams have to risk not being able to keep him long term. A 2023 1st in the 13-20 range is better than a 2024 1st in the 20-32 range (what you would get at the 2024 TDL), a cap offset (Dvorak) is the same as a cap offset later and a prospect with top 6 potential is the same as what you will also get at the 2024 TDL. All this to say that the package above is actually better than what you will get for PLD as a rental at the 2024 TDL since the 2023 draft is way deeper and the Florida pick will be higher in the draft than any playoff team's pick in 2024.

It doesn't matter if Chiarot was worth it, we all know he wasn't, it just matters that he got it.

Unlikely Dvorak gets a first next year. With only 2 years left, an overpaid bottom sixer won't pull a first in the 23 draft. Montreal overpaying so badly for Dvorak, doesn't increase his value.

It's kind of funny that you're trying to convince me that Dubois, who we both agree is far more valuable and a far better player than Dvorak, is worth barely more than a first, but yet turn around and say Dvorak is worth a 1st plus, easily. Double standard?

You may like Farrell, but he's a 4th round pick and an easily found LW. Every team has a couple of those prospects in their system. Only 17 players selected after the 2nd round in each draft ever go on to play more than 200 games in the NHL. So, he's a long shot, unappealing C prospect.

Sorry, but there's just no chance the Jets give Dubois away for unneeded and easily found pieces in the summer, when they can get at least the same return at the following TDL.

That's not insulting the players or saying it's a bad return, it's just not tempting enough for the Jets to move Dubois in the summer when there will be far more suitors.

I think you confused what I was saying lol. I wasn't saying PLD is barely worth a 1st, I was saying the package above is not an insult to the Jets as you seem to think. Let me put it another way, I said Dvo was worth a 1st + maybe a 4th, I think Farrell's value would be a 2nd (in a redraft) and the Panther's 1st makes the package worth 2-1sts +2nd + 4th, that is where I peg PLD's value. Like I said Dvo isn't really the replacement the Jets would want but he is still a good middle 6 center.

I didn't say it was an insult. I just said that it wouldn't be tempting. It's not that they are bad players or anything, it's just they do nothing for Winnipeg.

If the Jets are moving Dubois in the summer, they'll have a lot of offers to choose from. So, one that doesn't fill any needs for the Jets would be pretty far down the list.

Look at us discussing things without yelling at each other!

I agree with you that it isn't what the Jets will be looking for but I disagree that there will be a lot of offers. I think the Jets maybe get 3-5 "good" offers like the one above. I don't think a lot of teams will be making pitches for a guy that has been rumored to be looking to sign an extention only with Montreal. I think there will be teams interested for sure, I just think this is more of an Eichel scenario where the price is too much for the risk they are taking. We pretty much agree that PLD is worth a 2-1sts + 2nd + another small peice right, what team out there do you think is going to pony up all that for 1 year? Do you think Colorado does it? No, Sakic won't do that unless he knows PLD will resign, the same goes with just about every GM in the league. Would you want the Jets to do that? No, you probably would rather the Jets trade that type of package for a guy with term or a few years of RFA status.

I know right lmao

Why? Why wouldn't teams be interested. Sakic isn't stupid, if he thinks it gives him a shot at the Stanley Cup again, you can bet he'll be in on it, even if only for a year. He's seeing how much they are struggling without a competent 2C right now.

Fans might not like it, but teams trade for rental and one year players all the time. If teams are willing to throw away high end picks and prospects for a couple weeks of a player at the TDL, why wouldn't they do the same for an entire year of a good young player? PLD supposedly wanting to sign in Montreal, doesn't change his rental value.

I know Montreal fans are really hanging their hopes on "he'll only sign in Montreal" but reality and money says otherwise. PLD wants to get to UFA to maximize earning potential, whoever offers the most is likely where he ends up.

And 3 to 5 serious bidders is a lot. Chevy lets Dubois talk to them in advance about extending and the Jets just take the best offer.

The dreams of getting Dubois for a few low value pieces is just as unrealistic as the Jets getting a King's ransom for him.

I agree they do but we aren't just talking about a 1st + B or C prospect here, we are talking about (in Colorado's case) a 1st + Girard + Annunen or Beaucage, that's a lot for 1 year. Like I said though there will be teams out there who will do it but I just think only 3-5 (one of which would be the Habs) not many more will step up in all likelihood, I mean Eichel only had about 5 teams bidding on him and he is better than PLD.

Eichel was also injured and a lot more expensive. So, not really a comparable. I don't know where your Colorado offer came from. I haven't seen anyone ask for that.

The Eichel comment was just in regards to the number of suitors out there. I know he was injured and the ask was ridiculously high for a guy who was going to have a major unprecedented surgery. The rumors of him only extending in Montreal have put the Jets in a similar but not exact position, in that there won't be a huge market but the Jets should still get fair value from whoever trades for him. However, only teams who view themselves as contenders or even just playoff teams will be interested as him as a rental. So take the top 16 teams you project to be playoff teams next season, for me it's Colorado, NJ, Boston, Toronto, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Tampa, Calgary, Carolina, Dallas, LA, NYR, Vegas, Pittsburgh, Florida and Nashville. Now take out teams not in need of a top 6 center, so NJ, Boston, Toronto, Edmonton, Tampa, Calgary, LA, NYR, Vegas, Pittsburgh and of course Winnipeg wont be bidding on their own player lol. That's 11 teams out 5 left bidding. Now of course there will be a couple teams who think they can be playoff teams with PLD who may bid as well but my point is the market isn't that big. Also don't forget that there are some FA options available to those teams as well like O'Reilly, Horvat, Monahan, Toews and Larkin so the market might not be as big as you think.

The Avs offer above was just me looking at a package to make a deal work value wise. 1st + roster player with good value + prospect. Sorry for the confusion on that one lol.

Cool. Good discussion. I guess we'll just have to wait and see. It should be interesting.

Like I said I think there will be interested teams (Montreal included) and that the Jets should get a package worth 2-1sts + 2nd + something else. I just don't think a lot of teams will be bidding.

Montreal is not at one player ready to be competitive and adding Dubois while interesting won't change it. If mtl does this trade that only show that gm want to speed the rebuilding phase which could work and also fail.

Take Buffalo for exemple who have try multiple times to accelerate their rebuilding but have fail and need to reset .
Mtl need to be patient, keep stocking asset like pick and young prospect and when times to add veterans to go to free agent when needed.

They need tu maximize some veterans value that could bring them good pick or prospect like Dvorak, Anderson, Monahan etc.

Dvorak is worth a 2nd minimum. Farrell is a high end B prospect and the 1st is likely in the middle of the first round, that’s very valuable. Unlikely any team pays more than that without an extension.

The problem is we have young guys on the team who are only getting better, we lose a lot of dead weight this summer and bring in more young hungry kids, you don’t think we’re bad enough now, well we'll be even better next season. There never was a full rebuild, there is too much talent on the team and too much talent coming through the pipeline. Dubois would absolutely give us a chance to jump multiple spots in the standings, the year after that we’ll jump even higher.

So, you're saying Winnipeg will get less for a full year of Dubois than Montreal got for Chiarot as a rental. Why would that be?

There's no doubt PLD is more valuable and a RFA, so why would he return less?

Montreal got a 1st (uncertain on where it would be in the draft), c prospect and a 5th for Chiarot…

The value pretty much adds up to a 1st, a 4th and 5th rounder for Chiarot. While the trade I’ve suggested for Dubois adds up to a 1st (likely around 15th overall) another 1st (value for Dvorak), and a 2nd (Farrell would easily go in the 2nd round in a re-draft, if not the late 1st round, he’s progressed amazingly.) It’s not comparable.

As far as Dubois’ value goes, in normal circumstances he would be worth more, but these are far from normal circumstances. If he gets traded it’s as a rental, because he already said he is testing the market. Without an extension he will not net as great of a return as he could.

True, but as a rental for an entire year why would Winnipeg accept less than what Chiarot got for a few weeks? You may like the Montreal offerings, but neither are desirable pieces and doesn't change their value in reality.

Dvorak will only have two years left and is an overpaid bottom sixer, that isn't really good at anything. One year of Dubois is worth more than 2 years of Dvorak by quite a lot. Farrell is a long shot to make the NHL left wing. You may like him, but every team has a couple long shots like that.

There simply isn't enough value or quality there to tempt Winnipeg. They will definitely get a far better offer with quality pieces that suits their needs if they decide to move Dubois.

Almost everything you’ve said is false, but I’ll entertain you anyway. Tell me what you think other teams will offer for Dubois as a rental?

As a rental at the TDL in 24 or for one full year in the summer of 23?

I'm the summer he'll likely get a first, a good prospect and possibly a rodter player. All dependent on where/who the picks players actually are.

It's very unlikely the Jets target 2 years of an older, expensive, average bottom sixer or a long shot LW prospect. The Jets likely target young players with top 6 potential to go along with a first.

Dvorak was heavily sought out and multiple teams offered up a 1st round pick until the Habs offered a 1st and a 2nd. Seems like GM’s don’t agree with you that he’s an average bottom sixer.. and Farrell is not a long shot prospect. He’s a high end prospect who’s development has gone smoother thus far than most players drafted in the first round of his draft class. You don’t know the prospect and that’s alright, I wouldn’t expect you to. The offer I’ve suggested matches the one you’ve suggested.

Nope. It's not close. What teams thought of Dvorak two years ago, the fact the he had 4 years of term and the fact that Montreal overpaid for him, doesn't change what he is now. Dvorak has proven in Montreal that he can't handle top 6 duties and is only adequate, albeit overpaid in the bottom six. Plus, only having two years left of team control severely lowers his value. Then you throw in that Winnipeg doesn't need him, and that drops his value to nothing for Winnipeg.

You can like Farrell, that's fine, but only 17 players in each draft selected after the 2nd round go on to play more than 200 games in the NHL. So, the odds of him being one are basically nil. Then you throw in the fact that he plays the easiest of all positions in the NHL to fill, LW and that the Jets have zero need for him. Means he has no value to Winnipeg.

Sorry, but you're offer will be easily beaten by another team looking for a young 1C. You'll just be competing with too many teams with good offers.

Dvorak is the exact same player he was a year and a half ago when it was reported that half the teams in the league were interested in him and multiple teams offered a 1st, resulting in the Habs having to throw in a 2nd just to get him.

Farrell will be one of those 17 players, that’s pretty evident. He will make the nhl full time after this season, he’s one of the best playmaking prospects in the game right now.

There will not be very many teams offering a ton for a rental. It’s limited to only contenders, and then only to contenders that need a top 6 C, and then only the teams that believe they even have a chance to re-sign him which is very few.

Trouba did the same thing and NY was one of only a few teams that he would sign with, guess where he ended up? And for a marginal return. At the time Trouba was viewed as a top pairing Dman.

I’ve actually changed my mind. Farrell is heating up in the NCAA. This kid is going to be dynamite. Too good to give up along with a 1st for Dubois.