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Next Year Realistic

Created by: csick
Team: 2023-24 Ottawa Senators
Initial Creation Date: Dec. 4, 2022
Published: Dec. 4, 2022
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Free Agent Signings
RESERVE LISTYEARSCAP HIT
2$800,000
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
8$9,000,000
2$2,750,000
2$950,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
5$4,750,000
1$3,000,000
1$775,000
4$4,500,000
1$800,000
Trades
OTT
    After his bonus is payed, it’s only 2.5 mill left
    ANA
    1. Zaitsev, Nikita
    2. 2024 2nd round pick (WSH)
    Buyouts
    Retained Salary Transactions
    DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
    2023
    Logo of the OTT
    Logo of the OTT
    Logo of the OTT
    Logo of the OTT
    Logo of the OTT
    Logo of the OTT
    Logo of the NSH
    2024
    Logo of the OTT
    Logo of the OTT
    Logo of the OTT
    Logo of the TBL
    Logo of the OTT
    Logo of the OTT
    2025
    Logo of the OTT
    Logo of the OTT
    Logo of the OTT
    Logo of the OTT
    Logo of the OTT
    Logo of the OTT
    Logo of the OTT
    ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
    22$86,500,000$86,213,213$0$1,850,000$286,787
    Left WingCentreRight Wing
    Logo of the Ottawa Senators
    $8,205,714$8,205,714
    LW
    UFA - 5
    Logo of the Ottawa Senators
    $8,350,000$8,350,000
    C
    UFA - 8
    Logo of the Ottawa Senators
    $6,500,000$6,500,000
    RW, C
    NMC
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Ottawa Senators
    $9,000,000$9,000,000
    LW, RW
    UFA - 4
    Logo of the Ottawa Senators
    $7,950,000$7,950,000
    C
    UFA - 7
    Logo of the Ottawa Senators
    $4,975,000$4,975,000
    RW, LW
    UFA - 4
    Logo of the Ottawa Senators
    $863,333$863,333
    C, LW
    RFA - 2
    Logo of the Ottawa Senators
    $2,750,000$2,750,000
    C
    RFA - 1
    Logo of the Ottawa Senators
    $2,950,000$2,950,000
    LW, RW
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Ottawa Senators
    $838,333$838,333
    LW
    RFA - 1
    Logo of the Ottawa Senators
    $835,000$835,000
    C, RW
    RFA - 2
    $775,000$775,000
    RW
    UFA
    Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
    Logo of the Ottawa Senators
    $8,000,000$8,000,000
    LD
    UFA - 5
    $4,500,000$4,500,000
    RD
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Ottawa Senators
    $3,000,000$3,000,000
    G
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Ottawa Senators
    $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$1,850,000$2M)
    LD
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Ottawa Senators
    $4,750,000$4,750,000
    RD
    UFA - 4
    Logo of the Ottawa Senators
    $2,750,000$2,750,000
    G
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Ottawa Senators
    $950,000$950,000
    RD
    RFA - 2
    $800,000$800,000
    LD
    UFA
    ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
    Logo of the Ottawa Senators
    $762,500$762,500
    LW
    RFA - 1
    Logo of the Ottawa Senators
    $762,500$762,500
    LD
    UFA - 1

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    Dec. 4, 2022 at 2:21 p.m.
    #1
    Mr.T 17
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    Been seeing a lot cap raised teams lately, is the cap supposedly really going to 86.5 next season?
    Dec. 4, 2022 at 2:24 p.m.
    #2
    Thread Starter
    KFTW
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    Quoting: cody_tugak
    Been seeing a lot cap raised teams lately, is the cap supposedly really going to 86.5 next season?


    They’ve said that it’s very possible the players are done paying this year to the owners and that the cap could rise by 4 mill
    cody_tugak liked this.
    Dec. 4, 2022 at 2:28 p.m.
    #3
    Mr.T 17
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    Quoting: csick
    They’ve said that it’s very possible the players are done paying this year to the owners and that the cap could rise by 4 mill


    All The Possibilities That Suddenly Come To Mind For This Team Man... Awesome!!!
    csick liked this.
    Dec. 4, 2022 at 2:32 p.m.
    #4
    Thread Starter
    KFTW
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    Quoting: cody_tugak
    All The Possibilities That Suddenly Come To Mind For This Team Man... Awesome!!!


    Have to remember Sanderson needs a raise the year after. So can’t take too much cap on
    cody_tugak liked this.
    Dec. 4, 2022 at 2:34 p.m.
    #5
    Mr.T 17
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    Quoting: csick
    Have to remember Sanderson needs a raise the year after. So can’t take too much cap on


    Noah Dobson type of Bridge Contract?
    Dec. 4, 2022 at 2:35 p.m.
    #6
    Thread Starter
    KFTW
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    Quoting: cody_tugak
    Noah Dobson type of Bridge Contract?


    I don’t mind giving him a 1 year deal until the cap goes up a little more and Giroux’s contract expires
    cody_tugak liked this.
    Dec. 4, 2022 at 2:50 p.m.
    #7
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    Debrincat is on pace for 65 point season. I get that he's better than those stats, but I don't see Sens wanting to make $9M commitment. I think he'll be shopped as early as the trade deadline for some solid players on good value contracts in return to help build up D and forward depth. Having $9M extra cap space opens a lot of opportunities.
    athrin liked this.
    Dec. 4, 2022 at 2:59 p.m.
    #8
    Thread Starter
    KFTW
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    Quoting: Artsnurg
    Debrincat is on pace for 65 point season. I get that he's better than those stats, but I don't see Sens wanting to make $9M commitment. I think he'll be shopped as early as the trade deadline for some solid players on good value contracts in return to help build up D and forward depth. Having $9M extra cap space opens a lot of opportunities.


    Unless we get a 26 and under top 4RD , i can’t see him be moved. If it’s not for Dobson or similar player, he won’t be moved. Another Zub won’t be good enough
    Dec. 4, 2022 at 9:42 p.m.
    #9
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    2.0 M$ in bonus + 2nd round pick

    or

    1.67 M$ in buyout cost




    Easy answer. Not sure why nobody seems to get it.


    Quoting: csick
    Have to remember Sanderson needs a raise the year after. So can’t take too much cap on


    Which is why the new ownership won't let Dorion do more damage, like signing DeBrincat at 9.0 AAV
    Dec. 5, 2022 at 5:36 a.m.
    #10
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    ya i dont see OTT giving Cat his 9M long term, they will QO him and then trade him if he does not improve next year, currently he is a 7M player
    Xspyrit liked this.
    Dec. 5, 2022 at 8:13 a.m.
    #11
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    Quoting: Xspyrit
    2.0 M$ in bonus + 2nd round pick

    or

    1.67 M$ in buyout cost




    Easy answer. Not sure why nobody seems to get it.




    Which is why the new ownership won't let Dorion do more damage, like signing DeBrincat at 9.0 AAV


    Buyout cost is $3.7M, you still have to pay the signing bonus.
    csick liked this.
    Dec. 5, 2022 at 2:01 p.m.
    #12
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    Quoting: Xspyrit
    2.0 M$ in bonus + 2nd round pick

    or

    1.67 M$ in buyout cost




    Easy answer. Not sure why nobody seems to get it.




    Which is why the new ownership won't let Dorion do more damage, like signing DeBrincat at 9.0 AAV


    Well DeBrincat's QO is 9 mill so you kind of have to or he gets to walk to ufa and all of those assets were spent for nothing.
    Dec. 5, 2022 at 3:13 p.m.
    #13
    MOVE THE COYOTES
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    I think this is realistic.
    Dec. 5, 2022 at 3:14 p.m.
    #14
    MOVE THE COYOTES
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    Quoting: cody_tugak
    Been seeing a lot cap raised teams lately, is the cap supposedly really going to 86.5 next season?


    It seems like it will. It may only go up to 84.5 or something tho.
    cody_tugak liked this.
    Dec. 5, 2022 at 7:01 p.m.
    #15
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    Quoting: python3504
    Well DeBrincat's QO is 9 mill so you kind of have to or he gets to walk to ufa and all of those assets were spent for nothing.


    I think people make too much of a big deal with the QO's. Not every player is going to obtain their QO. Look no further than Brock Boeser last season

    If ADB scores 40 goals and 80+ points then he could be a problem but it's not looking like he'll reach 40

    Sens have all of Batherson, Giroux, Norris, Tkachuk and Stutzle between 4.975 AAV and 8.35 AAV locked long-term (maybe not Giroux as he's a vet)

    I'd say that all of them are better or at least close so if he wants 9.0 AAV then he can leave no problem.

    I personally think Dorion should have used the picks (including a 7th OA) to acquire a good Top-4 RHD, maybe add another asset if necessary
    python3504 liked this.
    Dec. 6, 2022 at 8:16 a.m.
    #16
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    Quoting: Pierre_from_Orleans
    Buyout cost is $3.7M, you still have to pay the signing bonus.


    You're looking at the cap penalty

    2023-24 :

    BUYOUT COST : $833,334
    CAP HIT : $2,833,334

    2024-25 :

    BUYOUT COST : $833,334
    CAP HIT : $833,334


    https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-calculator/nikita-zaitsev


    Cheap in terms of real dollars, cap penalty only a problem the first year but easily manageable if the cap really goes up to 86.5 M$

    I did an ACGM a while ago and gave Zub 5.0, DeBrincat 9.0, Brannstrom 2.0 and Pinto 5.0 while buying out Zaitsev and it all fit under the cap… As you can see, worst case scenario for all of them

    https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/647528
    Dec. 6, 2022 at 9:28 a.m.
    #17
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    Quoting: Xspyrit
    You're looking at the cap penalty

    2023-24 :

    BUYOUT COST : $833,334
    CAP HIT : $2,833,334

    2024-25 :

    BUYOUT COST : $833,334
    CAP HIT : $833,334


    https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-calculator/nikita-zaitsev


    Cheap in terms of real dollars, cap penalty only a problem the first year but easily manageable if the cap really goes up to 86.5 M$

    I did an ACGM a while ago and gave Zub 5.0, DeBrincat 9.0, Brannstrom 2.0 and Pinto 5.0 while buying out Zaitsev and it all fit under the cap… As you can see, worst case scenario for all of them

    https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/647528


    Post buyout earnings are $3,666,667, you have to pay the signing bonus regardless. So it's:

    $2.0M in bonus + 2nd round pick with $0 Cap hit

    or

    $3.67M in total buyout cost with $2.83M cap hit in 23-24 and $833k cap hit in 24-25

    This is where they are going to have to decide if they are planning on going after an additional D around $4-5M or if status quo is good enough to compete.

    If you give the contracts stated above to Zub, Cat, Pinto and Branny (which I think are all fair, maybe a bit high but better to plan high then low), who is rounding out your D and back up goalie?

    On the back end, JBD's contract is also up, so he'll be in for a bit of a raise, probably $1.XM one way contract I would guess. Lassi is still at $863K and can be sent down. So we have Chabby, Zub, Sandy and Branny. Are you comfortable with both JBD and Lassi rounding out the bottom pair and do you think the 4 mentioned above are all top 4 D? I'm on the fence with Branny, he is playing well this year but he isn't an elite defender, can't really box guys out in front of the net and he's not exactly piling up the points this season. I also don't think the mix is ideal with those as your top 4.

    For me, ideally, you pay the signing bonus, trade him for the 2nd round pick and be done with the cap hit etc. Chase a $4-5M free agent D and try to get better. A buyout of Zaitsev would result in $7.8M in dead cap next season, if the cap doesn't go up to the $86.5 there will be issues resigning players we already have let alone upgrading the back end. I also think it would be beneficial to let Lassi play one more season in Bellville to round out his game and have an experienced defender paired with Sandy, with Branny and JBD rounding out the bottom pair.
    Dec. 6, 2022 at 4:07 p.m.
    #18
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    Quoting: Pierre_from_Orleans
    Post buyout earnings are $3,666,667, you have to pay the signing bonus regardless. So it's:

    $2.0M in bonus + 2nd round pick with $0 Cap hit

    or

    $3.67M in total buyout cost with $2.83M cap hit in 23-24 and $833k cap hit in 24-25

    This is where they are going to have to decide if they are planning on going after an additional D around $4-5M or if status quo is good enough to compete.

    If you give the contracts stated above to Zub, Cat, Pinto and Branny (which I think are all fair, maybe a bit high but better to plan high then low), who is rounding out your D and back up goalie?

    On the back end, JBD's contract is also up, so he'll be in for a bit of a raise, probably $1.XM one way contract I would guess. Lassi is still at $863K and can be sent down. So we have Chabby, Zub, Sandy and Branny. Are you comfortable with both JBD and Lassi rounding out the bottom pair and do you think the 4 mentioned above are all top 4 D? I'm on the fence with Branny, he is playing well this year but he isn't an elite defender, can't really box guys out in front of the net and he's not exactly piling up the points this season. I also don't think the mix is ideal with those as your top 4.

    For me, ideally, you pay the signing bonus, trade him for the 2nd round pick and be done with the cap hit etc. Chase a $4-5M free agent D and try to get better. A buyout of Zaitsev would result in $7.8M in dead cap next season, if the cap doesn't go up to the $86.5 there will be issues resigning players we already have let alone upgrading the back end. I also think it would be beneficial to let Lassi play one more season in Bellville to round out his game and have an experienced defender paired with Sandy, with Branny and JBD rounding out the bottom pair.


    First thing first, I suspect that like me, you will want Dorion to not make any other decision! lol

    The thing is, like we have been used to in the Dorion era, we need to put that in the "dead money" column. I realize he has a signing bonus but that money should not count in the team's budget. New owners have to accept to waste that money (I would ask for a 2 M$ discount!)

    If it doesn't happen like that, then we might still be in trouble. We need owners with deep pockets to continue cleaning Dorion's mess and give the team a real chance

    Agreed that if the cap doesn't go up to 86.5, we're screwed and wouldn't be able to buyout Zaitsev. As of now, I could see it going either way. The bonus could be treated the same way Healtey's bonus was handled back then... We'll see


    As for the rest, I don't think we can afford DeBrincat long term. Pinto and Greig (maybe even Formenton?) will become more expensive eventually. DeBrincat's money should be allocated to a Top-4 RHD. The assets used to acquire him should have been to

    In my example thread, I gave an explanation earlier so just going to paste it here (Post #17) :

    https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/657061?post_id=3714151
     
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