Flipping Timmins

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: Younginthe6

Team: 2022-23 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Jan. 10, 2023

Published: Jan. 10, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

With Timmins playing so well for the Leafs but not getting a full-time NHL, plus with his injury history, it has been making me think that the Leafs could shop him at the deadline to sell him at a high and gain assets to go after a bigger fish. This would be outstanding asset management for the Leafs, as they traded career AHLer Curtis Douglas to acquire Timmins at a low, and flip him at the deadline. Maybe a 2nd round pick is a bit high, but young RH defensemen are extremely valuable and hard to find. LA has been rumoured to be in the market for a puck moving RHD so I just placed him there, though there are other possible fits for him around the league who would probably pay this price.

I don't think Timo Meier will go for much more than this. Perhaps there's one or two more adds to the deal but I don't think this is far off. There are so many teams who will be looking to sell at the deadline and many quality players on the market with only so many teams who are able to buy. Playoff teams will be looking to add players but most teams are already at the cap and don't have the space. With players like Meier, Tarasenko, O'Reilly, Horvat, Boeser, Kane, Toews, Niedereiter, etc. all reportedly being available, this will drive the price of each of them down. If a team asks for too much, the buyer can just go get player B for cheaper. Meier may be the most valuable of all because of his RFA status.

People that aren't Leafs fans will say that Kerfoot is just a cap dump and not worth a 3rd. That is far from reality. Kerfoot is very serviceable for literally any team as he can play anywhere in the lineup and on both the PP and PK. He just doesn't fit in this team anymore and is a UFA, and yes, the Leafs can use the space.

Don't be too critical of these moves, this is obviously all theoretical, but excited to hear your thoughts.

Free Agent Signings

RESERVE LIST		YEARS	CAP HIT
Knies, Matthew		3	$925,000

Trades

TOR

2023 2nd round pick (LAK)

LAK

Timmins, Conor

TOR

Meier, Timo ($3,000,000 retained)

SJS

Hirvonen, Roni
Robertson, Nicholas
2023 1st round pick (TOR)
2023 2nd round pick (LAK)
2024 2nd round pick (TOR)

TOR

2023 3rd round pick (EDM)

EDM

Kerfoot, Alexander

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2023
2024
2025

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
24	$82,500,000	$77,873,746	$212,500	$0	$4,626,254

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Bunting, Michael $950,000$950,000 LW UFA - 1	Matthews, Auston $11,640,250$11,640,250 C UFA - 2	Nylander, William $6,962,366$6,962,366 RW UFA - 2
Meier, Timo $0$0 LW, RW UFA - 1	Tavares, John $11,000,000$11,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 3	Marner, Mitchell $10,903,000$10,903,000 RW UFA - 3
Knies, Matthew $925,000$925,000 LW, RW RFA - 3	Holmberg, Pontus $827,500$827,500 C, LW RFA - 1	Järnkrok, Calle $2,100,000$2,100,000 RW, C, LW M-NTC UFA - 4
	Kämpf, David $1,500,000$1,500,000 C UFA - 1	Engvall, Pierre $2,250,000$2,250,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
Aston-Reese, Zach $840,630$840,630 LW, RW UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Rielly, Morgan $7,500,000$7,500,000 LD NMC UFA - 8	Brodie, TJ $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD/RD NTC UFA - 2	Murray, Matt $4,687,500$4,687,500 G M-NTC UFA - 2
Sandin, Rasmus $1,400,000$1,400,000 LD UFA - 2	Liljegren, Timothy $1,400,000$1,400,000 RD RFA - 2	Samsonov, Ilya $1,800,000$1,800,000 G UFA - 1
Giordano, Mark $800,000$800,000 LD UFA - 2	Holl, Justin $2,000,000$2,000,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
McMann, Bobby $762,500$762,500 RW, LW UFA - 2		Muzzin, Jake $5,625,000$5,625,000 LD NTC UFA - 2
Benn, Jordie $750,000$750,000 LD/RD UFA - 1		Mete, Victor $750,000$750,000 LD/RD UFA - 1
Simmonds, Wayne $900,000$900,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 1
Hunt, Dryden $762,500$762,500 LW, RW UFA - 1

Jan. 10, 2023 at 1:14 p.m.

tkecanuck341

Joined: May 2016

Posts: 14,668

Likes: 6,190

LA is most definitely not in the market for puck moving RHD. It's the single position they don't need any more of.

Jan. 10, 2023 at 1:15 p.m.

SNipeSHowInc

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 2,427

Likes: 733

What’s your plans for resigning Meier?

Jan. 10, 2023 at 1:16 p.m.

OldNYIfan

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 40,831

Likes: 25,651

The LAST thing Los Angeles needs is a puck-moving right defenseman. What we need is a defensive-oriented sizeable left defenseman. Think Montreal's Arber Xhekaj.

Jan. 10, 2023 at 1:17 p.m.

aadoyle

Hakuna Matata

Joined: Feb. 2020

Posts: 34,561

Likes: 21,131

How about u keep 7 good Dman as injuries do occur. Holl's gone next year so thats Timmins time to shine

SNipeSHowInc and RipNasty liked this.

Jan. 10, 2023 at 1:21 p.m.

Younginthe6

Thread Starter

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 31

Likes: 2

Quoting: tkecanuck341

LA is most definitely not in the market for puck moving RHD. It's the single position they don't need any more of.

I thought I heard that they were looking for a guy to support Doughty. Maybe I'm wrong, but just replace LA with any other team looking for a RHD

Jan. 10, 2023 at 1:21 p.m.

Younginthe6

Thread Starter

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 31

Likes: 2

Quoting: SNipeSHowInc

What’s your plans for resigning Meier?

Leafs couldn't afford to resign Meier, so they would flip him at the draft

Jan. 10, 2023 at 1:22 p.m.

Caniac2000

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 19,759

Likes: 5,076

Quoting: Younginthe6

I thought I heard that they were looking for a guy to support Doughty. Maybe I'm wrong, but just replace LA with any other team looking for a RHD

They need to MOVE a puck-moving RD, so you've got it backward. They've got so many RD right now that they will need to make a decision soon

Jan. 10, 2023 at 1:22 p.m.

Younginthe6

Thread Starter

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 31

Likes: 2

Quoting: aadoyle

How about u keep 7 good Dman as injuries do occur. Holl's gone next year so thats Timmins time to shine

If the Leafs were to do this then I would look for them to get a cheap 7th man. They also have Benn and Mete who have both played very well for Toronto so far this season when injuries have occured.

Jan. 10, 2023 at 1:23 p.m.

Younginthe6

Thread Starter

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 31

Likes: 2

Quoting: Caniac2000

They need to MOVE a puck-moving RD, so you've got it backward. They've got so many RD right now that they will need to make a decision soon

I'm sure there is another team that would pay a 2nd for a player like that, so replace LA with anyone.

Jan. 10, 2023 at 1:24 p.m.

#10

SNipeSHowInc

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 2,427

Likes: 733

Quoting: Younginthe6

Leafs couldn't afford to resign Meier, so they would flip him at the draft

Easier said than done

Jan. 10, 2023 at 1:28 p.m.

#11

aadoyle

Hakuna Matata

Joined: Feb. 2020

Posts: 34,561

Likes: 21,131

Quoting: Younginthe6

If the Leafs were to do this then I would look for them to get a cheap 7th man. They also have Benn and Mete who have both played very well for Toronto so far this season when injuries have occured.

Why would u want them to waste assets when they got a guy already in their system.

Makes 0 sense and Timmins is better than Benn or Mete.

Keeping Timmins is best for both him and the team. Having 7 good Dman is not an issue especially for a team wanting to go on a playoff run

dannibalcorpse and SNipeSHowInc liked this.

Jan. 10, 2023 at 1:28 p.m.

#12

tkecanuck341

Joined: May 2016

Posts: 14,668

Likes: 6,190

Quoting: Younginthe6

I thought I heard that they were looking for a guy to support Doughty. Maybe I'm wrong, but just replace LA with any other team looking for a RHD

They need left-handed guys. They're willing to move right-handed guy(s) to get them.

Jan. 10, 2023 at 1:33 p.m.

#13

dannibalcorpse

we miss leo k

Joined: Feb. 2018

Posts: 6,014

Likes: 5,131

-Teams in playoff position typically don't sell off roster players for picks at the deadline. Remember why the Leafs acquired Timmins in the first place? Now imagine those injuries piling up in games 5 & 6 of the 1st round, and you've got to rely on guys like Filip Kral & Mac Hollowell instead of a guy that's obviously a good fit for your system.

-I would say that San Jose accepts this, but I also think the value is awful for Toronto. Thinking you can flip him at the draft is a risky move considering if you don't find a deal you like, you're going to be saddle with that $10M QO - and other GMs are going to know that, so good luck getting anything near the Fiala or Debrincat packages. You might get back a 2nd and a prospect, or you might not find a team willing to extend him and you're gonna get stuck trying to find out how to fit a 4th guy with a $10M+ cap hit on your team next year.

-Same thing as my first point- contenders typically aren't going to trade away depth at the deadline. Look at your scratches - one of those guys is playing every night if *any* forward gets hurt. And that's with the assumption that Knies signs in the spring and immediately is good enough to play 3rd minute lines - not saying I think he's going to be a bust, but what if he needs adjustment time? Are you happy with having to play Dryden Hunt or Wayne Simmonds every night in their place?

palhal liked this.

Jan. 10, 2023 at 1:37 p.m.

#14

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 60,117

Likes: 23,036

Wow, what terrible roster management. Thinking a team can go with just 6 NHL Dmen in a deep playoff run hopefully, Never mind the Leafs likely need Timmins next year.
A big overpay of a premium of Meier over Kerfoot, especially when it a really difficult trade next June to trade a player who has 9m Q) and one year away from UFA

leafs101 liked this.

Jan. 10, 2023 at 1:39 p.m.

#15

leafs101

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 11,209

Likes: 5,209

Or, try to lock him up cheaper now and worst case someone will take another chance on him given his age, prospect pedigree and what he's done recently. Can never have too many dmen, just look at how many we've had to use already.

Jan. 10, 2023 at 1:40 p.m.

#16

dannibalcorpse

we miss leo k

Joined: Feb. 2018

Posts: 6,014

Likes: 5,131

Quoting: leafs101

that's my biggest take on it - like, did some Leafs fans forget why you traded for Timmins in the first place? at the very worst, if you like your D depth with that top 6 + Timmins, you can think about flipping out one of Benn or Mete if the demand is there, but that's as far as I'd go - moving out a redundant guy that's a pending UFA.

Jan. 10, 2023 at 1:44 p.m.

#17

Younginthe6

Thread Starter

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 31

Likes: 2

Quoting: dannibalcorpse

This isn't a complete roster. The Leafs would need to go and get an insurance D for the playoffs but I can't imagine that it would be overly expensive to get a 7th guy and have Mete and Benn as 8 and 9. I'm purely considering the fact that you can flip someone you got for Curtis Douglas to then get a big fish. The whole "trading a paperclip up to a house" mentality. Buy low, sell high, and flip for more assets. Do I think the Leafs will do this? No. But I wanted to see what it could look like. I'm not disregarding the need for depth in the playoffs, I'm just seeing what that move could look like.

Jan. 10, 2023 at 1:52 p.m.

#18

OilersRule

Joined: Oct. 2022

Posts: 361

Likes: 183

1) Toronto should keep him, considering they are one of the teams weak on the right side.

2) he won't fetch a 2nd, his injury history and this small sample size isn't enough for a team to give that much, if he can maintain it over 45-50 games, then the conversation gets started.

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