Pastrnak is worth 10.5-11 max.

He's an 85-95 point player having a ridiculous season.

What he's worth and what the stupidity of free agency will be willing to give him is different. I'd argue his max value is a little more than Panarin so 11.5, but he's got gamebreaking skill.

I’m an Oilers and Puljujärvi fan and I think the Canes would be a great fit for Puljujärvi. But we’re not trading Puljujärvi because we need forward depth, we need defensive stars, and trading for Martinhook (nothing against him) would hault our search for a top-pair D-man.

I’d rather keep Hoglander, but wouldn’t be surprised if the Canucks took this. They may prefer a similar age NHL ready player though

The Canes can sign Larkin at 9M and Pastrnak at 13M but not Horvat for under 8M?

Hoglander for Coghlan?

Canes wouldn’t be able to say yes to a Hoglander/Coghlan swap fast enough in the off-season.

As for your other comment, Larkin is a better systemic fit than Horvat, and the biggest difference between the 2, Larkin would actually be worth that money on a long term deal. Horvat almost certainly wouldn’t, since I’d be willing to wager to that Horvat likely never has a year as good as this one for the rest of his career, or in other words, is just over performing in a contract year. Pastrnak is a game changer, and whilst he is worth closer to 11.5-12mil, there will very likely be a bidding war on the open market for him, so 13mil isn’t unreasonable to bring him in.

I was very skeptical about bringing in Bear but he's been fantastic, hopefully Coghlan would be something similar. I know Rod is particular about his defensemen but it seems as though Chatfield has just beaten him for the last spot in the lineup. Is that fair to say?

Larkin and Pastrnak are both better than Horvat, but neither of them are actually on the market. Getting one of them let alone both is just a prayer at this point and both would be overpaid in the back half og their deals as well. Horvat actually is on the market, fills a position of need and would be cheaper than those two as well. A contender should be able to re-sign him to an 8 year deal at 7.0M-7.5M per.

I wouldn’t be so sure that Larkin and Pastrnak are not on the market. They are both pending UFAs, and both have hit a rocky patch in negotiations. Larkin is definitely a bit more of a stretch since Detroit is still building, and I don’t know if this is just me, but I just feel that Larkin has been getting a bit more impatient lately. Not a Wings fan by trade, so I don’t know if this is accurate, but he just gives me that kind of vibe. As for Pastrnak, I think he is just holding out for what the plan will be for next season and the future. Not sure, even with his love of Boston, if he wants to waste a few years of his prime waiting for the Bruins to get competitive again.

As for Horvat, he doesn’t appear to be backing down on 8+mil. He is a rather bad fit for the Canes defense first system, and unless he finds a defensive gear at some point over the remainder of the season, Canes likely have no interest. I’m not the only one that thinks Horvat will end up like Miller. Overperformed in a contract eligible year, and likely never repeats that kind of performance. Someone like ROR would be a much more likely target for the Canes. His price would already have been low based on him having the worst season of his career so far, and now that he is on the shelf until about 2 weeks before TDL, he isn’t likely to build up enough value to get as good a package as what Blues fans would want. As it stands, ROR is unlikely to even cost a first, and he might be willing to resign with the Canes, since I would imagine he likely would have a massive bounce back year under Rod. The Canes are looking more for a defensive center who can produce enough offensively behind Aho.

And yes, Chatfield has definitely won the last spot. Chatfield has been quite good for the Canes, and is a great systemic fit as well. Coghlan, whilst he hasn’t been completely bad, he pretty much just ended up taking Bear’s spot in the press box. Coghlan, if the games he has played this far this year, has had, in my opinion, 1 good game, 1 very bad game, with the others being pretty meh. He has a great shot, but he really hasn’t been able to use it, and he hasn’t been great in the dzone this year. He also has been primarily utilized on his offside, which has made it evident he can’t be used on his offside. Chatfield has been too good for Rod not to play, at least comparatively to Coghlan. I like the idea of a Hoglander/Coghlan swap though.

Ryan Graves 2 x $1.5 million.

LOL

Well the bottom line is we just don't know about Larkin and Pastrnak. There's nothing concrete there. Big names and cornerstone organizational pieces like that are re-signed more often than not. Indications are that Pastrnak is making progress on a deal and logic would dictate that Larkin being from Michigan and the Captain of Detroit would be willing to stay, especially given that Yzerman went through the same thing with Stamkos and he stayed. While we can't say for certain what they'll do, it is still unlikely that they hit the market based on precedent for players of that caliber.

Reports are that the Canucks most recent offer to Horvat was long term at 6.5M per. Rutherford in his press conference today said that their latest offer was fair based on what Horvat has done prior to this season but is below market value for this year. If the term is 8 years and he's signing with a contender then I think he'll sign for under 8M. His defensive numbers would also improve a lot playing on Carolina instead of Vancouver, that's not a real concern.

ROR would be cheaper to acquire and sign, but he's not nearly as good as Horvat. It makes sense from an cost management perspective but not if your trying to win the Cup and you can afford Horvat's extension.

The Canucks have too many wingers in the system so turning one into a RHD makes sense. Depends on how they feel about Coghlan. They should have had a decent look at him while he was in Vegas like they did with Bear in Edmonton.

Agree on the Larkin and Pastrnak points. While they most likely resign, I just wouldn’t consider it a done deal right now.

Horvat is tricky. He doesn’t have the greatest defensive metrics, and that would be the primary item that the Canes would be looking at. Assuming he could improve his defensive metrics in Carolina, the contract he wants is unrealistic. The Canes aren’t afraid to not resign players who they deem to be asking too much. Case in point, Trocheck, Hamilton, DeAngelo, and Nedeljkovic are perfect examples of that. 8mil is just too much for Horvat, when the rest of career thus far would really only warrant a range of 5.5-7.5. If he is willing to sign for somewhere between 6.5-7.25, I could see the Canes giving him more thought, and that’s also making the assumption that his defensive metrics improve in Carolina. Its a big risk, for the Canes to spend a couple of high end assets on someone who potentially doesn’t even fit the system. And just being able to afford the extension, doesn’t mean giving that extension is a good idea. Trocheck was great defensively, but he just couldn’t find that extra gear offensively, and he fell off at the end of his time in Carolina. I’ll be the first to say that Horvat is very likely to be the next Miller. And if that’s truly the case, Canes probably don’t make the move. You also have to understand the mindset of the Canes front office. The Canes don’t move first rounders or top prospects for rentals. They value their own pieces more than other teams value their pieces. If they were to make a move for Horvat, who would have a high likelihood of being a rental, they would have to change their entire philosophy that has been in play since relocation. ROR is just having a down year. Every player has at least 1 during their career, and this year it’s ROR’s turn. Horvat is having a career year. Horvat could still fall off, and ROR could still bounce back a little back when he returns. For defensive play, ROR is a lock, whereas Horvat is still a bit of a question mark. Same can be said about playoff performances. Right now, both could be considered question marks for offensive production, based on the year they are both having compared to previous years. Between the pros and cons, ROR would be cheaper to acquire, more likely to be a better fit, and would almost certainly be cheaper to resign. Given these conditions, looking at this from a Canes FO point of view, would you not consider ROR before Horvat? But I digress. We can just agree to disagree and call it a day. I guess we will never know, unless Horvat becomes a Cane.

The number one weakness for the Hurricanes that's gotten exposed every year is a lack of scoring in the Playoffs. Horvat has been a Playoff performer his entire life dating back to the OHL, his rookie year with the Canucks (where he was probably our best forward, especially as the series went on) and the bubble year where he was leading the Playoffs in goals after an ENTIRE EXTRA ROUND had been played. If the Hurricanes are serious about breaking through and pushing for the Cup, Horvat is absolutely the best option. Obviously this year the stats have jumped but he's been very, very good for the last ~3 years, he was just always playing with bad linemates. He was carrying the ghost of Eriksson for a year and guys like Pearson and Hoglander as a rookie while being deployed as a heavy forechecking line. This year he's playing with Miller, the best offensive player he's every played with in Vancouver and he's producing. Give him any one of Teravainen, Necas, Jarvis or Svechnikov in the Hurricanes' system and he'll continue to light it up.

In all of these trades I've assumed that Horvat comes with an extension at around 7.5M. If he's a pure rental then it obviously changes things. I also agree that Carolina doesn't have a track record of big moves, but besides that it makes a ton of sense.

I guess we will see at the deadline. You know, it’s actually been quite nice having a reasonable conversation on here for once. Nice talking to you. Cheers.