Trade wasn't close to 2 1sts+. A late 2nd and maybe B prospect isn't close to a 1st. Motte was getting a 2nd+ last year too, until he got a late 4th. Horvat will return a 1st+2nd+cap roster and maybe an additional lower pick/prospect,but as a straight rental, .67 career ppg 2nd liner isn't returning 2+ 1st value.

Youre making a big deal about the difference between a second + additional asset vs a late first.....................

Nah, you're overrating the value of a good 2C who's having one well above average yeat.

And you continue to be just as oblivious. Deadline rentals get overpaid for all the time. Is Chiarot worth a first +? Is Nick Foligno worth a first +? Keep being ignorant bud

Colton could get a 1st, but more likely an early 2nd. Giroux is a better player and still didn't return 2 1sts+ value. I never said it was a great proposal, as it isn't great for either team in terms of what they want or need. Horvat as a rental isn't worth 2 1sts+

An early 2nd is a team rebuilding, seems like a lot to give up for Colton. He's a pretty good 3rd liner Ill give you that. He could play up but I don't see him as a top 6 guy.

Horvat is on pace for 50 goals this yr so it's hard to say Giroux was better than him.

What value did you place on Tippett in that trade? if Colton is a 2nd, Tippett has to be a first. That makes it 2 1sts and a 3rd value. And as I say Horvat probably has more value now than Giroux had last season based on their play.

Give me some examples of 50 goal paced, high end centerman that went for less than a 2 1st plus? Matt Duchene got 2 1sts and two prospects in 2019. It's kinda hard to find comparables.

Smart GMs don't fall for one 45 game stretch vs what the player has done for the majority of their career(hence Giroux is a stronger overall player with better value). However, as Vancouver well knows, there are plenty of idiot GMs in the league. Vancouver reportedly isn't letting teams talk an extension with Horvat's camp either, and yeah, a good offensive 2C with at best, average defense who is a 55 point player on average isn't getting 2 1st round pick quality assets and an additional piece as a rental. If he's supposedly wanting 9+ on his next deal,even more hilarity, as the team paying that is out to lunch. If Vancouver would allow extension talks and he did come with an extension in place, his value would be higher, but apparently, as usual, Vancouver isn't making the best choice.

We've established he is a rental so what he did in the past is less relevant. Horvat had 30 goals last yr in 70 games so it's not like he isn't a great goal scoring 2c. Giroux was pretty good too but it's fairly easy to argue 27 yr old Bo Horvat with 30 goals in 46 games was better than 34 yr old Claude Giroux. But again what examples to look to when you say he's not worth 2 1sts. Giroux and Duchene were. They are decent rental comparables. Do you have anything in mind when you disagree or just a feeling?

Giroux wasn't really worth 2 1sts+ either, and Tippett is nothing certain as being worth a 1st as he looks more like a 2nd round value. Philly was fortunate to even get that tbh, as Giroux wasn't likely willing to waive anywhere else,and because Florida was stupid and not willing to not play hard ball, Philly benefitted greatly. Duchene was 4 and 6 years ago with very different circumstances considering cap. No major contender and hence buyer is going to be able to pay Horvat 8.5 or more, and again, most GMs realize that gutting their picks/prospects for a rental is a poor decision if the cost is 2+ 1sts. Horvat isn't the type you do that for. Teams that are really interested will wait until July and then be able to sign him for no cost to their picks and prospect pool. Let Vancouver get left holding the bag. and then they can lose him for nothing, or they can take a fair and realistic offer for a rental of his caliber of 1st, 2nd or decent prospect, and roster player to probably make cap work.

So Colton is worth a 1st or 2nd but Tippet isn't. You sound a bit inconsistent.

Like I said I found two comparables and they both returned a value the equates to two firsts +. You haven't offered any push back other than to say Horvat is a rental. Which I agree. For the teams that think they can wait and sign him so be it. There is certainly an opportunity cost to adding a goal scorer like Horvat for the playoffs and obv it at least gives you an inside track at resigning if you choose to.

It's really not that much to pay if your window is now. For instance if I'm a team like Pittsburgh or Washington a 23' or 24' first rounder means almost nothing. If you're a team with lots of prospects like LA or NJ those prospects are worth less when you have so many.

I expect based on comparables it's going to be 1st, prospect like Tippet or better/young fwd better than Colton, 3rd

For posterity 1st, Chytl, 3rd

As I said, Tippett is worth a 2nd right now, and Colton is worth at least the same. Never said Tippett isn't worth a 2nd. Colton gets bottom 6 minutes while Tippett is on the top or 2nd line, and Colton has like 5 less points and is much better defensively. Colton also scored 22 goals last year and is still rfa. Pretty confident Tampa would get at least an early 2nd for him. Colton is no worse than Tippett in terms of value.

Duchene also didn't return two 1sts as a rental, as one was conditional(and didn't pan out), so it was basically 1st, an average proapect and a roster player.

Your example of 1st, Chytil, 3rd is in the right range, depending on how the NYR feel about Chytil. However, I doubt that specific team goes for him as they won't be able to re-sign him.

Tippett is a former 10th overall pick. He's three yrs younger than Colton.

Anyway in my value judgement the 2nd 1st is more of recent 1st or 2nd (whos excelled since being drafted). 1st, prospect (equal to late 1st), 3rd

The trade a proposed is exactly that. Not sure what you're argument is anymore. The above offer is pure fluff.

I never said it was a good trade in the OP. Who cares if Tippett was a 10th overall pick, as he's done very little at the NHL level to warrant 1st round value to this point. Between the two, Colton has done far better if going by draft pedigree. My argument remains that most contenders won't pay Vancouver's price if that price is the equivalent of 2 1st round picks and an additional asset. Maybe a fringe playoff team with a bad GM caves, but most will balk at that price for 20 games and likely a short playoff run. Most deals I see that have Vancouver getting 1st+Morrow+ from Carolina or 1st+Wright from Seattle or 1st+Lysell+ from Boston aren't happening without an extension in order(all offers I've seen posited by Vancouver fans on here).. No good team is throwing away a '23 1st and a top organizational prospect to see their Cup chances go up a small % at best. We very clearly dosagree on player valuation, as is evidenced by the fact that you think Colton might be worth a 3rd and Tippett somehow is still worth a 1st. Anyway, I'm done with this thread, as there's little point continuing with this any longer.

Smart GMs don't fall for one 45 game stretch vs what the player has done for the majority of their career(hence Giroux is a stronger overall player with better value). However, as Vancouver well knows, there are plenty of idiot GMs in the league. Vancouver reportedly isn't letting teams talk an extension with Horvat's camp either, and yeah, a good offensive 2C with at best, average defense who is a 55 point player on average isn't getting 2 1st round pick quality assets and an additional piece as a rental. If he's supposedly wanting 9+ on his next deal,even more hilarity, as the team paying that is out to lunch. If Vancouver would allow extension talks and he did come with an extension in place, his value would be higher, but apparently, as usual, Vancouver isn't making the best choice.

Well there you go my friend. I guess we can say your evaluation of Horvat was way off. I felt pretty strongly I was being conservative in my evaluation but this blew me away. Prob 30-40% more value than I expected.

Well there you go my friend. I guess we can say your evaluation of Horvat was way off. I felt pretty strongly I was being conservative in my evaluation but this blew me away. Prob 30-40% more value than I expected.

Lol,.a top 12 protected 1st, an okay middle 6 player and a good, but not great prospect that was a mid 2nd round pick. Solid value but nothing special. Good trade for both sides as long as Isles re-sign him.

Lol,.a top 12 protected 1st, an okay middle 6 player and a good, but not great prospect that was a mid 2nd round pick. Solid value but nothing special. Good trade for both sides as long as Isles re-sign him.

And actually, my valuation was pretty accurate. I said a 1st, and it wasn't even unprotected at that, a prospect in the 2nd round range and a roster player to offset the cap. As that is exactly what he returned, not sure where my evaluation was off, but okay....No 2 1st round value, Beauvilier is a straight cap dump with no value at that hit, and Raty is a good prospect with potential, but not some can't miss blue chip. It's a sid trade for Vancouver and, if the Isles do re-sign him, them as well.

And actually, my valuation was pretty accurate. I said a 1st, and it wasn't even unprotected at that, a prospect in the 2nd round range and a roster player to offset the cap. As that is exactly what he returned, not sure where my evaluation was off, but okay....No 2 1st round value, Beauvilier is a straight cap dump with no value at that hit, and Raty is a good prospect with potential, but not some can't miss blue chip. It's a sid trade for Vancouver and, if the Isles do re-sign him, them as well.

It was higher than even I suggested and waaay higher than you were suggesting. The 1st I though would be 25+ (its like to be 12-16), Raty looks a borderline 1st level prospect, and Beauvillier is a project with upside. Could easily turn him into a 2nd if he plays well.

Honestly I think this is a terrible trade for the isles. Horvat is a bad fit for one. They have Nelson and Barzal down the middle. The worst thing they can do in my mind though is resign him. Mark my words, Horvat is the JT Miller of this yr. He's way outscoring his normal rates with an unsustainable shooting %. It's pretty obvious he'll regress back to a 50-60 point player. And someone is going to pay him 9 mil. You dont want that team to be yours in this case in spite of the cost to acquire. Sunk cost fallacy. Mark

You can spin it how you like, and I agree.Vancouver won the trade for now. In the best case scenario you get the pick that high for sure, unless the Isles.pick it up and it ends up in the 20's. Raty is not a.1st round talent at this point,as his rather mediocre skating makes him more of a 2nd round value(although he is talented and trending upward), and Beauviliier is badly overpaid for what he produces No one is paying g Vancouver anything close to a 2nd for him. So again, as I thought, a 1st round pick(in this case with some protection), a 2nd round value add with upside(in this case a player rather than a pick), and a roster player that is a cap add and is a decent 3rd line talent. It's a solid B to B+ grade for Vancouver and a C for the Isles that could reach a B if Horvat re-signs. If Vancouver is finally committing to a re-build/re-tool, which seems to be the case, it's a good return

Why bother mentioning the pick protection? Good chance if he goes to any team, they aren't going to be picking top 12 anyway.... It is clear you have no clue who Raty is. No point in arguing if you use draft position as your only argument

ya no, you just fudged everything down. According to models there is a 55% chance the pick is between 12-16. Yes they could go on an all time heater and it drops but mid 20s is highly unlikely. So when you say 1st in the deal it always meants 25+, maybe even 30+. This is going to be 10 spots higher than expected. That type of value is huge. On top of that Raty is clearly goes 1st round on a draft redo. Since being drafted he goes nuclear in the Finnish pro league, rips up wjc and plays and scored NHL goals. He's a 1st rounder in the sense we originally talked about it which is 25+.

As for Beauvillier, a yr ago during the Miller talks isles fans absolutely loved him. Seems he's fallen off but there is a player there. At next yrs deadline as an expiring defensively sound, energy guy I see him fetching a 2nd or 3rd even if you have to retain 50%.

Is Colton worth the 16th pick? not even close. Foote a late first. not really. And we'll see what Beauvillier returns. Call it a 3rd next yr. You are way off its that simple.

ya no, you just fudged everything down. According to models there is a 55% chance the pick is between 12-16. Yes they could go on an all time heater and it drops but mid 20s is highly unlikely. So when you say 1st in the deal it always meants 25+, maybe even 30+. This is going to be 10 spots higher than expected. That type of value is huge. On top of that Raty is clearly goes 1st round on a draft redo. Since being drafted he goes nuclear in the Finnish pro league, rips up wjc and plays and scored NHL goals. He's a 1st rounder in the sense we originally talked about it which is 25+.

As for Beauvillier, a yr ago during the Miller talks isles fans absolutely loved him. Seems he's fallen off but there is a player there. At next yrs deadline as an expiring defensively sound, energy guy I see him fetching a 2nd or 3rd even if you have to retain 50%.

Is Colton worth the 16th pick? not even close. Foote a late first. not really. And we'll see what Beauvillier returns. Call it a 3rd next yr. You are way off its that simple.

No, you're mostly painting everything in a best case scenario. I said it would be a 1st. No, it wasn't ever going to be a 1st from a lottery team, but any legitimate playoff team that had a 1st to move and that was interested. I thought the pick could end up anywhere from 17-32, depending on playoff results and whatever protections were placed on the pick. Tbe Isles trading for him was surprising, as they seem more of a bubble team at best, but perhaps Horvat pushes them to some playoff success.

Raty had success in the Liiga, great. He's played a very small number of NHL games so far and looked okay. His game does have some flaws, but he's trending in the right direction. Maybe he goes very late 1st round in a re-draft, but probably early 2nd.

Beauvillier,again, fits the roster player/cap move to make the trade work, as I also thought. Beauvillier currently is a negative value or no value asset based on his cap hit. Again, best case scenario he turns it around and Vancouver gets a 2nd or 3rd next year, but with the present situation, he's a cap dump to facilitate the trade. He's still a decent player, just not at his cap hit.

Colton wouldn't likely go #16 in this year's draft class, no, but neither is the pick guranteed to be there. He is imo worth a 1st round pick however, based on his play in the league. I never said Foote was worth a late 1st, as I believe he's worth a late 2nd or early 3rd at this time. Of course Raty is a better prospect than Foote, while Colton is an actual proven NHL talent that can play in the top or middle 6 vs a magic bean draft pick that may or may not pan out. Colton is also still rfa after this year, so if he was moved, the acquiring team would be in a better position in negotiations. Vancouver appears to be headed for a multi year rebuild, and so viewed through that lens, taking a chance on the 1st round pick working out in a few years is probably better than acquiring an established player now. It doesn't change the fact that Colton would be a 1st round value and, to many teams, a better pick up than a mid to late 1st.

You're hoping that everything turns out in the best possible case from the trade, when in reality, it's rarely the case. My value remains pretty close to what I thought the trade would bring, and until the location of the pick is known and Raty gets some more games, how that perceived value works out can't be known. The trade went down fairly close to what I thought, a single 1st, a good but not great prospect/2nd round pick, and a roster player/cap dump. It's a win for Vancouver and a solid return, but for now, nothing that incredible.