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Meier Trade

Created by: Lancebmx
Team: 2022-23 New Jersey Devils
Initial Creation Date: Jan. 29, 2023
Published: Jan. 29, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Meier agrees to an extension.
Trades
SJS
  1. Johnsson, Andreas
  2. Mukhamadullin, Shakir
  3. Sharangovich, Yegor
  4. 2023 1st round pick (NJD)
Additional Details:
Johnsson for cap purposes so no retention is needed.
Buyouts
Recapture Fees
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2023
Logo of the NJD
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2024
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2025
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$82,500,000$77,390,792$0$1,332,500$5,109,208
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$6,000,000$6,000,000
LW, RW
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$7,250,000$7,250,000
C
UFA - 5
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$5,450,000$5,450,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$3,000,000$3,000,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$8,000,000$8,000,000
C
UFA - 8
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$750,000$750,000
RW
RFA - 1
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$4,500,000$4,500,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$2,375,000$2,375,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$3,200,000$3,200,000
LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$975,000$975,000
C
RFA - 1
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$400,000$400K)
RW, C
RFA - 2
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$825,000$825,000
RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$1,125,000$1,125,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$9,000,000$9,000,000
RD
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$3,400,000$3,400,000
G
UFA - 3
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$3,166,667$3,166,667
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$4,400,000$4,400,000
RD
UFA - 5
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$2,800,000$2,800,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$1,100,000$1,100,000
LD/RD, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$4,166,666$4,166,666
RD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
RW, LW
RFA - 3
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$4,125,000$4,125,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$795,000$795,000 (Performance Bonus$82,500$82K)
LD
RFA - 1
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$874,125$874,125
C, LW
RFA - 1

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Jan. 29, 2023 at 4:51 a.m.
#1
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Who else is SJ retaining on?

If they retain it would allow NJ another move which may be worth an extra future 2nd. Blackwood needs to be dumped for a Talbot equivalent or better.
Jan. 29, 2023 at 4:58 a.m.
#2
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Quoting: OldBoisClubSandwich
Who else is SJ retaining on?

If they retain it would allow NJ another move which may be worth an extra future 2nd. Blackwood needs to be dumped for a Talbot equivalent or better.


Well they are already retaining on Burns. They may find a home with a bit of retention for Karlsson, unlikely but keeping the option open. Maybe Labanc or Bonino could be moved with retention, or maybe they just make a deal for retention for another team and get a pick, they have done that in the past. Just wanted to leave the option there and since Johnsson is an expiring contract it doesn't hurt SJ at all.

Comrie, Korpisalo, Talbot, Reimer should all be made available for trade and I'm sure most of those teams wouldn't mind taking an expiring Blackwood deal back in return. Maybe they sign him for cheap and take a chance on him as a back up next year.
Jan. 29, 2023 at 5:11 a.m.
#3
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Edited Jan. 29, 2023 at 5:18 a.m.
not that excited about Sharangovich since he's 24 and his production rate is down from last year while playing on a really good team (0.4 vs 0.6ppg), but he checks the NHL player forward box. Muk checks the RD prospect box that Grier lost with Merks, but wondering if another good prospect could come in with Muk instead of Sharangovich, like Holtz (obviously) or a fair mix of Casey/Foote/Gritsyuk/Walsh/Stillman
Jan. 29, 2023 at 5:41 a.m.
#4
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Quoting: Lancebmx
Well they are already retaining on Burns. They may find a home with a bit of retention for Karlsson, unlikely but keeping the option open. Maybe Labanc or Bonino could be moved with retention, or maybe they just make a deal for retention for another team and get a pick, they have done that in the past. Just wanted to leave the option there and since Johnsson is an expiring contract it doesn't hurt SJ at all.

Comrie, Korpisalo, Talbot, Reimer should all be made available for trade and I'm sure most of those teams wouldn't mind taking an expiring Blackwood deal back in return. Maybe they sign him for cheap and take a chance on him as a back up next year.


Comrie, Korpisalo, and Reimer don't have any value and Comrie is prolly negative due to his contract

I think you're right with retention iterations for SJ.

Quoting: poeticentropy
not that excited about Sharangovich since he's 24 and his production rate is down from last year while playing on a really good team (0.4 vs 0.6ppg), but he checks the NHL player forward box. Muk checks the RD prospect box that Grier lost with Merks, but wondering if another good prospect could come in with Muk instead of Sharangovich, like Holtz (obviously) or a fair mix of Casey/Foote/Gritsyuk/Walsh/Stillman


Holtz + Muk + 1st is way too much for rental Meier, esp with no retention. Shar is kinda exactly what SJ needs in terms of a winger, prolly more valuable this year and next for NJ than Holtz.

Who else is in it for Meier with resign that he'd want to join [not Buff]?
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Jan. 29, 2023 at 6:07 a.m.
#5
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Quoting: OldBoisClubSandwich
Comrie, Korpisalo, and Reimer don't have any value and Comrie is prolly negative due to his contract

I think you're right with retention iterations for SJ.



Holtz + Muk + 1st is way too much for rental Meier, esp with no retention. Shar is kinda exactly what SJ needs in terms of a winger, prolly more valuable this year and next for NJ than Holtz.

Who else is in it for Meier with resign that he'd want to join [not Buff]?


If I was Jersey I would just keep Blackwood anyways and not worry so much about a goalie this deadline.
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Jan. 29, 2023 at 6:10 a.m.
#6
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Quoting: poeticentropy
not that excited about Sharangovich since he's 24 and his production rate is down from last year while playing on a really good team (0.4 vs 0.6ppg), but he checks the NHL player forward box. Muk checks the RD prospect box that Grier lost with Merks, but wondering if another good prospect could come in with Muk instead of Sharangovich, like Holtz (obviously) or a fair mix of Casey/Foote/Gritsyuk/Walsh/Stillman


I think Holtz instead of Shara is too much. Looking at comparable trades I feel this is more than alot of comparable players that have been traded in the past.
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Jan. 29, 2023 at 8:43 a.m.
#7
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Quoting: Lancebmx
If I was Jersey I would just keep Blackwood anyways and not worry so much about a goalie this deadline.


When he traded for Hammond last year, it was out of necessity since we had so many injuries. But Fitzgerald did say at time he did not like switching goalies mid-season.

Blackwood, with $3.36 million qualifying offer, is a candidate for to be non-qualified after season.
Jan. 29, 2023 at 8:49 a.m.
#8
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And I think the Meier trade works.

Maybe Casey instead of Mukhamadullin and an AHLer back to Jersey to keep San Jose under 50 contracts.

Could also retain Meier at 50% instead of taking Johnsson.

1. Retain Meier (1/2) -- $3.0m cap hit, $5,000,000 cash hit
2. Taking Johnsson -- $3.4m cap hit, $750,000 cash hit....but would have to send player to NJD

(using annualized figures)
Jan. 29, 2023 at 9:50 a.m.
#9
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
And I think the Meier trade works.

Maybe Casey instead of Mukhamadullin and an AHLer back to Jersey to keep San Jose under 50 contracts.

Could also retain Meier at 50% instead of taking Johnsson.

1. Retain Meier (1/2) -- $3.0m cap hit, $5,000,000 cash hit
2. Taking Johnsson -- $3.4m cap hit, $750,000 cash hit....but would have to send player to NJD

(using annualized figures)


I figured I would send Johnsson so that they could still retain on other players or in a side deal which they have made in the past.
I figured Muk is more NHL ready so that's why I went with him.
Jan. 29, 2023 at 10:24 a.m.
#10
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Quoting: Lancebmx
I figured I would send Johnsson so that they could still retain on other players or in a side deal which they have made in the past.
I figured Muk is more NHL ready so that's why I went with him.


Mukhamadullin is probably ~2 years ahead of Casey schedule. His KHL deal is out in couple of months. He probably plays in AHL for a year (for a few games at end of 2022-23, then all of 2023-24). Maybe ETA late 2023-24 or early 2024-25.

Casey probably plays 2-3 seasons at Michigan, maybe one in AHL ...so ETA 2025-26
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Jan. 29, 2023 at 10:46 a.m.
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Quoting: OldBoisClubSandwich
Comrie, Korpisalo, and Reimer don't have any value and Comrie is prolly negative due to his contract

I think you're right with retention iterations for SJ.



Holtz + Muk + 1st is way too much for rental Meier, esp with no retention. Shar is kinda exactly what SJ needs in terms of a winger, prolly more valuable this year and next for NJ than Holtz.

Who else is in it for Meier with resign that he'd want to join [not Buff]?


Meier isn't a rental. That narrative needs to fall off a cliff.

Downgrade the 1st to 2nd or work out some other combination of prospects that I listed. Point is SJ doesn't need Sharangovich they need high end quality prospects. Meier is kinda sorta the kind of winger SJ needs and they should resign him instead of downgrade to Sharangovich
Jan. 29, 2023 at 11:06 a.m.
#12
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Quoting: Lancebmx
I think Holtz instead of Shara is too much. Looking at comparable trades I feel this is more than alot of comparable players that have been traded in the past.


If SJ doesn't at least get DeBrincat value then they should do everything possible to keep Meier. Not worth it otherwise. Ideally they get more with teams being able to work an extension before the trade like Tkachuk did (cat went without one)

The idea is changing the trade to remove Sharangovich and get SJ quality prospects NJ has to spare... didn't have to focus on holtz+muk necessarily. 1st could be downgraded since Muk would be a 1st rounder in a redraft. Holtz would also drop out of the top 10 in a 2020 redraft
Holtz+Casey+2nd
Nemec+2nd
Muk+Holtz
Holtz+Walsh+1st
Don't get hung up on these values, I just don't think SJ should go for Shar. Doesn't make sense.
Jan. 29, 2023 at 12:31 p.m.
#13
me wan da poonani
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Quoting: poeticentropy
Meier isn't a rental. That narrative needs to fall off a cliff.

How many teams (other than the Sharks) would sign Meier to his 10m QO?
How many teams with the cap space and assets available to trade for Meier would be interested in signing him to his 10m QO?

For all intents and purposes, Meier is a pending UFA (albeit a very good one) and the value of the trade return will most likely reflect that.
Jan. 29, 2023 at 1:39 p.m.
#14
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Quoting: Tintin
How many teams (other than the Sharks) would sign Meier to his 10m QO?
How many teams with the cap space and assets available to trade for Meier would be interested in signing him to his 10m QO?

For all intents and purposes, Meier is a pending UFA (albeit a very good one) and the value of the trade return will most likely reflect that.


Its getting annoying to say this, but hes signing an extension with his new team.
Jan. 29, 2023 at 1:42 p.m.
#15
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Quoting: papishark
Its getting annoying to say this, but hes signing an extension with his new team.


So did Mark Stone, what's the difference here?
Jan. 29, 2023 at 5:16 p.m.
#16
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Quoting: Tintin
So did Mark Stone, what's the difference here?


OTT didn't want to pay Mark what he wanted and they went to arbitration to end up in the 7s for 1yr when he wanted 9 with a UFA expiration. SJ will give Meier the money and term he wants and the numbers are more palatable than they were in 2018. Teams have the option to match the QO when you don't with a UFA, but probably doesn't come to that because he can be talked to before the potential trade. He's not a rental.
Jan. 30, 2023 at 4:25 a.m.
#17
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Edited Jan. 30, 2023 at 4:33 a.m.
Quoting: poeticentropy
OTT didn't want to pay Mark what he wanted and they went to arbitration to end up in the 7s for 1yr when he wanted 9 with a UFA expiration. SJ will give Meier the money and term he wants and the numbers are more palatable than they were in 2018. Teams have the option to match the QO when you don't with a UFA, but probably doesn't come to that because he can be talked to before the potential trade. He's not a rental.


Okay, but what happens if Meier doesn't wanna extend for a retool / rebuild in San Jose?
What happens if Meier is only interested in doing a sign-and-trade with just the one team?
Meier's 10m QO makes his situation eerily similar to that of a pending UFA, in fact for all intents and purposes he is one, because no team trading for him would be interested in signing him to his qualifying offer.

That's not to say he is a rental, he is unlikely to be one, but not being a rental =/= not being a pending UFA.
You actually say it yourself here:
Quoting: poeticentropy
but probably doesn't come to that because he can be talked to before the potential trade.

How is this what you said any different for Mark Stone, or any other pending UFA you are given the option to talk an extension with before the trade goes down?

The foundational principles of supply and demand, prior comparables, market competitiveness and (most importantly in the context of the NHL) game theory doesn't just vanish because Timo Meier is the current flavour of the TDL.

It's not like I don't get from a Sharks fan's perspective.
Trading star wingers away sucks, you're almost never getting the same returns as you think you'd get and especially so when compared to RHDs and Cs.
I felt very defensive about the return Hall 'should've' gotten vs the one the Devils ended up with for the longest time, but ultimately it is the reflection of the realities of the NHL.
Jan. 30, 2023 at 1:31 p.m.
#18
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Quoting: Tintin
Okay, but what happens if Meier doesn't wanna extend for a retool / rebuild in San Jose?
What happens if Meier is only interested in doing a sign-and-trade with just the one team?
Meier's 10m QO makes his situation eerily similar to that of a pending UFA, in fact for all intents and purposes he is one, because no team trading for him would be interested in signing him to his qualifying offer.

That's not to say he is a rental, he is unlikely to be one, but not being a rental =/= not being a pending UFA.
You actually say it yourself here:

How is this what you said any different for Mark Stone, or any other pending UFA you are given the option to talk an extension with before the trade goes down?

The foundational principles of supply and demand, prior comparables, market competitiveness and (most importantly in the context of the NHL) game theory doesn't just vanish because Timo Meier is the current flavour of the TDL.

It's not like I don't get from a Sharks fan's perspective.
Trading star wingers away sucks, you're almost never getting the same returns as you think you'd get and especially so when compared to RHDs and Cs.
I felt very defensive about the return Hall 'should've' gotten vs the one the Devils ended up with for the longest time, but ultimately it is the reflection of the realities of the NHL.


Yes, If Meier makes it clear he doesn't want to sign in SJ and there's not a lot of interest from other teams then his trade value goes down
Yes, If Meier is only interested in a sign-and-trade with just one team his trade value goes down
I said how I think the Mark Stone situation was different. OTT didn't want to pay him what he wanted. SJ wants Meier and will pay him. Huge difference there.

But it's ridiculous to cite these hypotheticals as definitively decreasing Meier's trade value. They're just possibilities, just like my dream of something like 1st+holtz+muk is possible if the competition for Meier is high. If we get evidence for these hypotheticals having some basis of truth then that changes things.

A rental implies SJ will trade him to a team that won't resign him, which I think is really unlikely at this point considering SJ is allowing his agent to talk to other teams and the announcement of a $9m starting negotiation.

Prior comps are important and shouldn't be ignored, but nor should all the factors surrounding those previous trades... and how the situations likely differ. DeBrincat is probably still the most relevant comp because it involved very little drama, DeBrincat would have resigned in CHI and CHI could afford him, and DeBrincat & Meier are in the same tier, though their play style is different
 
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